To get the 3D effects, you need to analyze the planform with at least a vortex lattice code, as lifting line theory doesn't handle sweep. Sweep will load the downstream end compared to the upstream end, because the downstream end experiences an increased angle of attack due to the trailing wake.
Vortex lattice theory looks complicated enough that I could not trust my results and simple enough that it might not be valid for the cases I am interested in (angle of attack and angle of side slip must be small for it to be valid). It looks like a good theory for understanding plan form but I better start with prototypes. Is there anything simple I can do to estimate or bound the induced drag? Am I ok assuming symmetry at the water plane if air is not free to leak under?
Sweep loading the downstream end, increased angle of attack -now that's gold! Can you direct me to literature that would help me understand and quantify this effect? This sounds like what I experienced and am looking to understand/exploit.
You can do vector addition to resolve the apparent wind into the wing coordinate system and then calculate the effective angle of attack and sweep. Canting forward and sweeping aft can be the same as having an unswept rig. It is basically an upright rig that is rotated about the apparent wind vector.
I can do the vector work. Once I know the angle of attack and sweep, what do I do with the component along the span? If it is flowing toward the free end I would expect it adds to induced drag and if it flows toward the the closed end I would expect it adds to loading. Is there any simple way to quantify?