yacht sunk in med

kapnD said:

I doubt that the existing rules of design were ever intended to cover a vessel of such excessive dimensions!
Such things are in a class of their own, should be labeled “Experimental”.
More money than brains behind all that…

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You are mistaken. There are mountains of rules governing the design, construction, and operation of Bayesian. And a tremendous number of brains went into her creation, not that there's nothing to be learned from her loss, there most certainly is.

A gigantic column of air presses between 40 North and 30 North: it is the High pressure (H) of the Azores, and the air comes out through the large extraction chimney, the jet (J) which quickly heads East.

What happened was literally a short circuit

On the one hand, the Mediterranean coast was very, very hot, that night around +30 degrees Celsius, which is already very destabilizing

But on top of that, never better said "on top of that", the cold Jet stream (- 60 C)* moved southwards

tremendous short circuit

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*: At the top, let's say ten thousand meters high, but it cools the air that is a thousand meters high, and it would be interesting to know what temperature it was at.

The sky fell on their heads, very quickly and violently and not in a lets say orderly and slow manner

(500 mb chart)

The 80 knots at about five thousand meters high is a forecast of about 40 knots on the sea surface

But

But the 40 Knots below in a turn forming a trough is a forecast of 40 knots on the sea surface

And we must expect very bad weather in the axis of the valley (Low 576) that goes to the valley (Low 524)

And this 'disturbance of the force' continued towards Sicily, creating a tremendous short circuit in a sea at +30 degrees Celsius that brought the sky down on the Megayacht

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I mean that the two main variables to read the 500 mb chart is the shape: Trough and Dorsal... and... Temperature

(Mariano Medina in memoriam, who taught us this and many other things)

peter radclyffe said:

Perini-Navi-SY-56m-C2392-EVOLUTION.pdf (perininavi.it)

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With hindsight, the ketch on the spec sheet seems like a much more sensible version than that sunken sloop with the ridiculous 72-meter aluminum mast. I also think it may have been anchored from both ends, which could expose it to side winds. This wouldn’t happen if it were just using a bow anchor.

While it is obvious that many people ,both on this forum and elsewhere are keen to understand events,wouldn't it be best to wait for the outcome of an investigation instead of speculating or expressing opinions?It is quite possible that relatives or friends of the unfortunate victims will be searching for information that will help them come to terms with the tragic loss that has affected their lives and this forum is likely to feature in search results.It is likely that the expert investigators would prefer to establish their own findings instead of having to refute guesses from a body of people with varying amounts of knowledge of the subject matter or the conditions encountered.

calevi said:

With hindsight, the ketch on the spec sheet seems like a much more sensible version than that sunken sloop with the ridiculous 72-meter aluminum mast. I also think it may have been anchored from both ends, which could expose it to side winds. This wouldn’t happen if it were just using a bow anchor.

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There is no evidence of a stern anchor and no stern anchor system on Bayesian.

(Sir Robert Baden Powell)

"Wir haben hier in der Gegend schon seit Wochen mehr als 30 Grad Wassertemperatur. Das ist extrem fürs Mittelmeer. Das hatten wir schon mal vor zwei Jahren, exakt vor zwei Jahren, am 18. August auf Korsika. Damals gab es auch einen größeren Sturm, da sind 220 Boote auf dem Strand gelandet . Ich habe jetzt die ganze Zeit schon mit so etwas gerechnet, dass so ein heftiger Sturm wieder kommt."

The captain of the Sir Robert was alert and ready with the engine running.

"We've had water temperatures of over 30 degrees here for weeks. That's extreme for the Mediterranean. We had that two years ago, exactly two years ago, on August 18th in Corsica. There was a major storm then, and 220 boats ended up on the beach. I've been expecting something like that all along, that such a violent storm would come again."

There are three issues here

1) the alert: the place (the Mediterranean), the date (late summer) and the very striking temperature of the sea, one could also add what happened a few days before in the Mediterranean in Ibiza and Formentera, although from my point of view this is not the main thing, but rather the awareness of the danger due to the place and date and the alarming temperature of the water.

2) the capsizing, and

3) the sinking (!)

Bayesian --- Sir Robert

Just hours before

I've been caught in weather events like this, thankfully our boats are the equivalent to a hummer and we rode it out. When the wind hits boats that hard, even under power they dip and slide like those videos show. We had a typhoon five years ago that caught us, gusts would spin us on our sides and tip us. We'd have a little time, to power up and line up for the next one.

Pretty sure the only reason we survived was a combo of blind dumb luck and providence. We lost a radome, some vhf antennas and almost everything not strapped or tied down. But we lost no windows, hatches or power. Think if we'd had even a small hiccup it would of sent us down in seconds.

Sometimes the ocean is just that brutal. We as a species have millenia of stories of the power and awe of the ocean. We forget that so often in a world that's difficulties have been bubble wrapped and nerfed. Tragedy happens, even to the best crewed and designed boats. It's a loss for the families of the sailors regardless of the actual cause.

It's a somber reminder of the reality of mother nature regardless of the ultimate cause.