Good points, Q. Thank you.
After Australia did well in Weymouth, our club held an open day and 350 people turned up. A far number joined "Learn to sail" programmes but none lasted when they realised the years it takes to make a good club sailor, let alone elite level sailor. That's a back handed way of agreeing with you.
Interesting! What you see is also confirmed by many surveys and studies, which show that the sporting mega-events rarely increase participation.
It can be depressing as a coach when you realise how long it will take people to step up a notch or two in ability. IMHO one reason why sports can have a boom period is that they self-generate in a way, because the initial burst of popularity means that those who are new to the sport have many peers who are also inexperienced. That way the keen newcomers have more people they can compare themselves with in a favourable way, as well as having an entire sport that is beginner-friendly.
Other sports can get around this problem (cycling is an example) but they are easier than sailing. One thing that strikes me is that the current hype around the sport is about craft that are hard just to keep upright, which will intimidate new sailors even more and open up the gap between them and the experienced sailors even more. Still, there's stuff we can learn from sports like cycling, such as the emphasis on user-friendly equipment that both pros and beginners can use, and perhaps "gran fondo" style participation events where finishing rather than winning is the key.
Windsurfing went into the same spiral when it started to hype up strong-wind sailing. As one kiting advocate said "in the beginning, everyone could windsurf. In the end, nobody could." It's a clear lesson to boat sailing.
I believe that the people who came did not have "narrative" which joined them to sailing. That story can be as simple as, "that's what our family does," or fictional, "we have adventures like Swallows and Amazon's," or "We are a great crowd, we race in summerand repair in winter and always share a beer."
It doesn't need to be complicated, to hang a sense of belonging around, but it has to engage people enough to get them back each season. My point is that there are many ways to enjoy sailing and too much focus on elite sailing tends to suck energy out of the grassroots of the sport.
One area almost defunct in Australia is homebuilt plywood dinghies. This used to be a great basis of the sport. Interestingly, the young people who do build seem to get jobs. Connection? Perhaps