This is a long post, but this is a complex subject I have researched a fair bit. Sadly, very few people have done research about the links between sports equipment design and sports participation levels, and even more sadly the sailing industry refuses to even consider looking at the reality. For example, the editor of what used to be Australian Sailing continues to claim that kids these days are more attracted by windsurfing and cat sailing than dinghy sailing, which is an extremely brave thing to say not just because it is so dramatically wrong, but because it takes wilful blindness not to see how wrong it is.
1- Re women in sailing.
With much respect, Leo, as ggggG has pointed out, women and girls form a significant proportion of dinghy sailors/skippers these days. Hopefully they will keep the boat owning habit.
2- Publicity and sports participation are pretty much independent of each other, as demonstrated by various surveys and stats. It's interesting to look at the relevant survey from NZ, which has had such outstanding high-profile success and government support in sailing, and see how poorly sailing and other high-profile sports fare in participation terms. To put it in context, the most popular competitive sports are swimming (ranked 3rd in physical activity behind walking and gardening and done by 35% of Kiwis), equipment based exercise, cycling (5th and done by 20%), golf, tennis, cricket, touch rugby, netball, canoeing/kayaking, and basketball.
Sailing comes in around the 40s in the rankings with 2.4% participating, ahead of much-hyped sports like motorsport and skateboarding. The huge publicity generated in NZ by the AC and Volvo has left sailing well behind sports like water skiing and badminton in terms of actual participation.
This fits in with surveys in Australia, Europe, the UK and elsewhere. Publicity does not equal participation. Sure, some of the most popular sports are highly promoted but many popular sports run largely under the radar, and some high-rating sports like league and motor racing rank low in participation. The guy who used to run the biggest Oz survey of sports marketing was quite blunt about the fact that there was no link between watching and doing.
The issue for sailing is that this fact is completely ignored by many, so they continue to trash the classes that people actually sail in the hope that kids who sit on the 'puter will suddenly see a foiler, grab a spare $25,000, and spend years learning how to sail it. We see it when they push classes like the Moth and kite as "the future of the sport" despite the fact that they are raced by a relatively small number of people, with surprisingly slow growth.
By the way, does anyone else think that the underlying concept that kids need "crash and burn boats" because they have short attention spans is completely at odds with the fact that "C&B boats" tend to require MORE maintenance, rigging and training time if one is to get around the course than conventional boats do? How is the cliched couch potato who needs high-paced leisure going to suddenly enjoy spending more time rigging?
3 - Re "The coffee shop/disco cohort were never there for sailing". Dead right in my experience too, but there is still some superstition that sailing was one of THE cool things to do when it was booming. It wasn't that way where I lived on Sydney Harbour (cool kids surfed) so one wonders where the myth came from.
And who cares what those who are fixated on fashion will do? They are hard to interest and soon walk away... let's ignore them and concentrate on nerds and counter-culture kids. It worked pretty well for computers and gaming didn't it?
4- Speaking of gaming, there's a lot of research into the psychology of attracting people into gaming, and from what I can find out a lot of it applies to sailing and sport. For some reason, no one seems to be trying to learn from the enormous success of the sophisticated approach taken by game designers. As far as I can see, the successful approach of game designers is completely at odds with the "let them crash and burn in super expensive boats" approach advocated by many people for sailing.
5- Sport England surveys and others show that every ORGANISED sport loses lots of kids in the mid to early teens. They still do stuff, but not at club level.....let's admit it and design a way around it.
6- Cost, time and demographics.....these are among the big killers IMHO, as others have said. This has also been shown by surveys and studies. Sadly, they are also ignored by those who want to run the sport and who push kids towards more expensive gear that is harder to store and can be sailed in fewer places.
7 - Summing up (at last!) IMHO there is an abundance of data from objective studies, historical lessons and from the classes that are doing well that indicates we need to concentrate on improving accessibility, with cheap, tough gear and an approach that is open to non-experts. the frustration is that this paradigm runs against the vision that many of those who think that they control the sport are pushing. Even more frustrating is the fact that they are so wedded to their vision (something that is getting close to 40 years old but still thought of as new) that they will not actually look at any research or do any research.
A classic case in point, albeit at the extreme end of the sport, is the America's Cup. We were promised that higher speeds would lead to more money and bigger fields. Speeds have increased far more than anyone ever conceived, yet fields are smaller than before and there has been an unprecedented shift of big money owners into classic yachts.
None of this is saying that fast gear isn't fantastic (I have a fair bit of it and love it) but it just is not as popular as accessible gear, and promoting it too much will hurt the sport. So what can we do? Well, perhaps a website and forum to discuss these issues in a objective and evidence-based could kick something off. Stage 2 could be for this group to contact those who run the most popular classes, present them with some data and an approach, and ask if they are interested in forming a pressure group. Stage 3 could be for this group (consisting of people like the presidents of such popular classes as the Sabre, Solo, RS400, Hobie 16, Lightning, etc) to present the objective data to ISAF and the sailing media and say "we're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore" and demand that the future course of the sport concentrate on making it accessible, rather than pushing high performance kit.
I organised something a bit like this a while back in windsurfing, and it worked fairly well in terms of getting the governing body to listen to the classes and nations a bit more.