News and theories about the missing Malaysian plane

If you actually knew anything about that part of the ocean, you wouldn't make such an idiotic post.

I've been there many times, in ships well equipped with oceanographic equipment, looking for stuff where we *knew* its location (because we put it there) and still haven't been able to find it.

The Southern Indian Ocean is a bloody big piece of water. Spotting stuff from the bridge of a ship is a hell of a lot harder than you might think.

PDW

 

It is an idiotic post. I should have said a ten million dollar reward, that way the place would be crawling with long liners and anything that floats that has enough range and endurance. If you put stuff overboard then couldn't find it again, your radar reflectors need an upgrade. Longliners seem to be able to find their gear OK. It beggars belief that 20 metre plus, light coloured items have evaded capture despite several satellite fixes. With helicopters aboard ship, plus a bunch of state-of-the-art anti submarine planes, it is a little easier than some bloke up a crow's nest scanning the horizon. What we haven't been told is how much non-aircraft junk has been intercepted, it could be that the whole lot is just that.

 

What do you think??

There is a lot of interest in finding this plane.

The number of missing people, although tragic, as far as governments are concerned is not a large number compared to deaths that governments could help to avoid around the world.

Why do they really want to find the plane?

Poida

 

There are a number of reasons why it is important to find out what happened to it, from the viewpoint of the relatives of the passengers it is easier to accept a loss as a result of accident, than criminality. That alone is good enough reason to get to the bottom of it, imo, but Boeing. e.g., has a big stake in having it's plane exonerated. And the list goes on.

 

So, Mr Efficiency you believe that the Governments of several countries are looking for the missing plane because:
1. They are concerned about the feelings of the relatives of the victims.
2. They are worried that Boeing might get a bad name.

err OK

poida

 

I don't think it is quite as simple as that I think it has reached the stage where the "we have spotted debris" stories should be discontinued, and "they" get back to us when they actually find something pertaining to this plane. It may be impolitic for news media to speculate on why no bodies have been sighted in these debris strewn waters, but that, it seems to me, would be the most likely sign a plane had gone down in the vicinity.

 

Dr Erik van Sebille, oceanographer at the University of New South Wales, Sydney.
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|---> Tracer website Adrift (an educational website on ocean surface circulation and the pathways of marine plastic) let's say debris in this case.

By a click on the map you drop a rubber duck in the ocean and the tracer computes the spread of marine plastics, or flotsam in this case.

The distribution area in the Southern Ocean expands the fastest, moves the fastest and dilutes the most compared to a drop in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Ocean.

So, according to this tracer, any piece of flotsam found in the Southern Ocean won't say much of where the rest is or where the place of impact was.

( for me the tracer works best when reopened for a new drop )

-- link --

P.S.

The tracer's right top corner shows the time lapse, which is rather fast for the purpose of simulating the flow of aircraft debris.

When any piece of flotsam is found and positively identified I'm sure a reversed and more accurate system will be used to compute it's origin, but the longer it takes to find something the wider the spread and the less usefull the outcome will be.

 

Why don't planes eject EPIRB's when they crash on the water?

 

Ever see an emergency landing or ditch check list? You're going though a lot of stuff and the last thing on the list is to button to eject something, so they can find your shredded butt? How about automatic ejection? Well how will the software decide you've screwed the approach and are about to go around, rather then punch out your EPIRB? Maybe water contact you say? Given this jet ditched or augered in between 160 to 600 MPH, the likelihood the box could remain reliably intact, in regard to it's ejection system seems sketchy at best. I mean by the time water is sensed, discounting morning dew, wash downs, flying at 600 MPH into torrential rain, etc. the area it's housed has been torn apart, before it can sense anything. Now, I do thing a GPS locator system, possibly tied to the next level of traffic tracking systems (currently being tested), seems a reasonable idea, but now you have to talk everyone into using them. Some airlines, particularly those like this one, will be the last on the list to adopt new features. Maybe with new designs, leaving in the manufacture's hands, but typically these things would be options, much like air conditioning in your car, so many fleets just would by the base model, without it, thinking to save bucks.

Simply put, there's a lot to do when you're planning to ditch. When US Airways 1549 ditched on the Hudson, they didn't get through the check list and left open water tight doors, that would have kept 1549 afloat longer. They knew they where ditching and granted, at low altitude and without power, limited time, but it's not an easy set of variables to contend with, especially coupled with other stuff, like in 1549's case repeated (understandably) restart sequence attempts. Or say with the ValueJet crash, working through control and systems failures, while also considering you have to put this puppy down, preferably on it's wheels at a reasonable speed, let alone a ditch. Now introduce the possibility of a flight crew conflict or passenger intervention, where the ditch or emergency landing profile doesn't get the time it needs, before the sudden stop at the end.

It would be nice to have some sort of system in place, with world wide coverage and I'll bet someday it'll happen, but just wait, a jet will go down, with one of these systems in place and functioning property, just before it few into one of the very few areas on the planet, that doesn't have complete coverage, because the area's third world countries or draconian governments can't afford or refuse to get on board, so there's a coverage gap.

 

I had much the same thought in post #7. If the landing gear is retracted, and altitude falls below 100 metres, shoot out an epirb with a parachute. Obviously if the landing gear is deployed, that won't work, but how often would that apply ? Anyway, I have had a gut-full of the appalling handling of this tragedy by Malaysia, after telling the world weeks ago that the pilot's final radio transmission was " All right, good night" they now say it was "Good night, Malaysia 370". Hello ???? Seems like they can't even tell lies well !

 

all governments with commercial aircraft regulations will want to find it (to hopefully find the cause that may lead to a change in safety regulations), all governments with law enforcement agencies will want to find it (to see if there was criminal or espionage motivation behind it, that may result in criminal leads, or changes in their relationship with other countries), all aircraft manufactures, and their suppliers, most of all Boeing, will want to find it (to see if there was a mechanical malfunction, or if it was equipment that is used by other aircraft that malfunctioned). All the families (and their lawyers) want to find it to find out who is responsible, and what was the fate of their family members.

The list could go on, but I think enough said. Without finding it and determining the cause, many more commercial flights could be at risk, airplane and parts manufacturers might be at risk, relations between countries might drastically change. Depending on what they find.

Nothing will be resolved until it is found, and some kind of determination of the cause discovered.

 

I'd imagine passenger traffic would have dropped in the airline industry as a result of this, especially one carrier !

 

Generally, you wouldn't be within 300 meters of anything, gear up or not, but things do occur that might cause an EPIRB to drop out, unnecessarily. A fly by to check a gear/door status, because of a bad indicator light, a belly landing and a few other incidents, meaning we'd have EPIRB's sporadically raining from the sky. I don't think you could get any insurance company on board, with auto eject anything, as they'd be responsible for whomever it bonked on the head or car hood, etc. They could if it was pilot initiated, but likely not if automatic.

In the end, I think light will shine on Malaysia and they're deathly afraid of what will been seen, so information is heavily censored and withheld, pretty much having screwed the pouch on the initial search efforts. I don't think the aircraft is where they're looking, nor do I think it will be found, unless someone lucks onto it a few years from now. Many aircraft and ships have been lost without a trace, this is just the latest, unfortunately.

 

The reason why I ask why are the governments concerned are looking for the plane, is, the Malaysian Government stated that there was information they could not release. (Good way to keep a secret is to say there's a secret).

The Australian Prime Minister originally said there would be a time constraint in the search for the plane but now has changed his mind and said we will continue, because we owe it to the relatives of the passengers. Why did he change his mind? A briefing on classified information.

Governments start wars. They don't have a problem with killing people and certainly don't care about their relatives.

Air safety even has cost restrictions, the reason why the latest signalling devise was not fitted to the plane.

If the search continues past this week, I would highly suspect they want what ever was on that plane or not want someone else to find it.

Poida

 

Information they "could not release", don't you love it. Don't think any country should be expending any money on searching till they reveal every detail of what they know.