New nav hazard: Parked tankers?

Bloomberg Tv says its 40 dollar BBl and i saw it hit 39 on Fri.


Iran has always been calling war cries and thats half the reason the world got the jitters 6 months ago.

Now its 40BBl they are not happy and have started again trying to get us all worked up about shortages. But its just not working, Even though they have called on an embargo on Isreal supporters, normally that would be enough to send it through the roof but Iran never stands by its word and now its word is worthless. Opec have also cut back and still nothing.

Americas reserves are increasing (into the 3% margin and more) and we are not using the stuff any more. We have had enough of having our gooleys squeezed.

How do you think it will rise then?

 

upwards? but if it falls through disuse then it wouldn't be called a "rise" or "upwards" and that would be difficult to understand or believe?

Oops, whth Frosty posting I thought this was the drivel thread....

 

As Marsh points out its a simple arbitrage play because the futures market has got the near term pricing wrong for external reasons (credit).

Its not 3% because is not a days worth of saving... get it?... No...

 

Your not using my argument at all... you don't seem to get it at all. You're comparing flow rate with a small amount of stored oil, chalk and cheese my grumpy little mate.

 

Holding the oil in a couple of supertankers, is just that - other supertankers are still delivering else the price would elevate indicating a temporary shortfall but whilst the flows are flowing that would be fixed before it started as the country wide buyer would ensure continuity by diverting another supply ship etc.....

 

Really? is that what I said. Is it?

 

Yes... it is. You calculated a few tankers worth against a global daily consumption figure and declared it more than 3% soooo yada yada yada glut. Which is just crazy... total oil volume in storage means little most of the time, its the rate at which its flowing into the system and out of the system that counts... not the fact that a few million barrels are sitting in a tanker. The ease with which that tanker can be refilled is going to determine if the holder of the oil is at a disadvantage or an advantage to the market, not the mere fact that it exists as you suggested prior. So aside from the fact that overall accumulating inventories indicate an increased flow rate and vise versa the inventory as a % of daily consumption is not that useful a number. Global production verses global consumption is where you go looking for the 3% +- number.... and thats a "wet finger in the air" number quoted by some in the industry to demonstrate the concept, reality is it depends on the state of the supply chain at the time.

 

Last time,--- 3% is your figure, I discussed one speculator owning a 'few' (again your word) which I took to the minimum that few can mean --2.



The newspaper article suggested Speculator's and Tanker's

It is a hypothetical discussion and at that point we were not including consumption against supply which of course changes everything.

But the goal posts have been shifted and now we ARE apparently taking consumption and supply into consideration and therefore an impossible discussion which is what you want to prove and suits your argument.

 

1. Your words above... so yeah whatever Frosty, you still seem to be mixing inventory with supply/demand (flow) which is all the 3% number was ever referencing.

2. When was consumption and supply ever not a part of the equation? Mebe your sitting on the goal post!

3. The guys storing oil in tankers don't have to speculate... they can sell forward on the futures market and lock in a profit now, the contango is amazing... this is a cast iron set in stone profit. No speculation about it... all the costs and the sale price are known now!

4. Last time I heard it reported as many as six or seven ships have been chartered for storage in the US.

5. This is just the market sorting itself out, why the hell is everybody whining about it? So a few guys are storing oil for a short while because a credit market disruption created an opportunity. What the hell would you like to happen... pour it into the sea prehaps?

 

Nah pour it out in a narrow busy sea channel (outside a pirate base) then drop a lit match..... with an onshore breeze....

 

FYI: I went and re-posted (all of it) here:
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/showthread.php?t=451454

Good article and post.

 

Good information, weird the way the world gets by.

 

What do you mean "Just about?" hell the causeway ain't that long (I've done it, some years ago mind), or has something happened over the years?

 

maybe sabahcat was referring to walking through the **** & slime at low tide?