Some further thoughts and analysis
Further to my Post 2 above, I have managed to estimate the effect of flooding from 5 to 15 % of the vessel's displacement (about 520 to 1550 tonnes) in its port wing tanks. Despite considering initial GM values from 0.15m (IMO minimum) to 2.0m I can only obtain angles of list up to 28 degrees (with the largest flooding value and lowest GM) and about 10 degrees for the lowest flooding and largest GM. This is not sufficient to flood the superstructure above the vehicle spaces which should have been watertight at least to 14m depth (about 35 degrees).
At angles of 25 degrees plus there will be added contributions from some movement of cargo but in calm conditions this will not become significant until about 35 degrees or more depending on cargo type. In order to get the larger list clearly indicated in the the many photographs it is necessary to consider flooding of the vehicle deck, but there seems to be no obvious entry point other than the possibility of faulty scuppers which should have non-return valves fitted. If these were jammed open, then progressive flooding of the vehicle space could take place which would provide a slow mechanism to achieve angles of 45 degrees or so within about half an hour to an hour. This would require about 1000-1500 tonne of water on the vehicle deck as well as the flooded wing tanks below. Shortly after this the superstructure decks reach the water level and will start to accelerate the capsize as water enters through open doors etc. It is clear from the immediate pre-capsize photos and video when the vessel is at about 85 degrees that more than half the vessel is out of the water indicating that she still had a great deal of further flooding to take place before she could roll right over and sink. In the final capsize video sequences there are clearly visible openings venting air which would appear to be from some of the vehicle deck scuppers as water flooded in.
Edit/Delete Message