Global cooling on the way, no warming at all!

Boston · Feb 22, 2012

bntii said: ↑

Me too but with cardiac problems having killed off both parents perhaps I am grasping a bit...

Anyone hear of the DEEP snow falls in the Serbia?:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...und-villages/2012/02/02/gIQA4trvjQ_story.html

Yikes

And 20 feet in Alaska:

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2012/January/Alaskan-Town-Buried-Under-20-Feet-of-Snow/

Some commentary I heard attributed these heavy falls to rising temps in these areas; in colder times- too cold to have this heavy of snow falls.
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its actually a pretty easy concept B. The amount of energy that hits the planet is x the amount that radiates is y, if you add insulation. less radiates but the same amount is still hitting it. = more potential energy in the system. That energy results in more extreme weather. Both cold and hot. But with a gradual warming trend. Which is exactly what is being observed.

I'm really not sure how this big lie about cooling came about, I guess the oil and gas industry isn't done squeezing us for ever dime it can, and its propaganda machine is doing its best. But if you look at climate science, within the field there is almost no dissent concerning the issue. Could be a reason for that.

If something like 97% of climate scientists all say one thing. Yet the public perception rests at 50/50, you might just have to admit that something is up. Maybe the media, who is unfortunately who the majority of people get there info, isn't explaining the science very well.

cheers
B

Boston · Feb 22, 2012

There was an interesting bet offered by some folks over at realclimate to the guys predicting cooling, years ago. Like about 08 ( woops 02 ) I think it was.

Anyone curious how that bet worked out ?

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/11/so-how-did-that-global-cooling-bet-work-out/

money talks, climate deniers, walk.

It is worth emphasising that the RC bet offer was not frivolously made, but reflected some very clear indications in the paper that the predictions would not come true (as explained in our second post). Specifically, their ‘free’ model run, without data assimilation, performed better in hindcasts when compared to observed data, i.e. the new assimilation technique degraded the model performance. Both previous hindcasts showing cooling of the model were wrong. Since global warming took off in the 1970s, the observed data have never shown a cooling in their chosen metric (ten-year means spaced 5 years apart). Other climate models run for standard global warming scenarios only rarely show this level of cooling. On the other hand, there is a simple explanation for such a temporary cooling in a model: an artifact known as ‘coupling shock’ (e.g. Rahmstorf 1995), which arises when the ocean is switched over from a forced to a coupled mode of operation, something that has no counterpart in the real world.

The basic issue is that nudging surface temperatures in the North Atlantic closer to observed data would probably nudge the Atlantic overturning circulation in the wrong direction since changing the temperature without changing the salinity will give the opposite buoyancy forcing to what would be needed. The model indeed shows negative skill in the critical regions of the North Atlantic which are most affected by the overturning circulation. All this can be seen from the paper. Last but not least, by the time the paper was published three quarters of the 2000-2010 forecast period were over with no sign of the predicted cooling – barring an unprecedented massive temperature drop, the prediction was always very unlikely.

Was this then an “improved climate prediction“? The answer is clearly no.
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Global cooling on the way, no warming at all!

Boston Previous Member

Boston Previous Member

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