Are You Personally Prepared For a Natural Disaster?

I don't either. It's not what I said. I said the financial collapse is in the very early stages, and politically appears to be irreversible.

That I believe. It's not analogous to "peak oil" or "climate change" which can be argued until the cows come home. Government behavior is either changed or it isn't -- if it is, expect riots (see Greece, France, Ireland, Wisconsin) -- if it isn't, expect hyper-inflation. My bet is on the latter. It's really just simple arithmetic, promises made and a simple timeline of when the promises become due. There is simply no way to square the circle ... but a worldwide conflict would certainly distract attention.

 

We are in a very unusual situation. Interest rates are low that should encourage growth but its not. We have unemployment even though money is cheap.

The problem is that this depression was not of natural causes but by massive mismanagement of banks. No rules apply.

Hyperinflation is expected, how can it when no one has any money and are cutting back.

To make things worse governments are panicking and printing money, don't they ever learn.

Another unusual unprecedented situation is it is global.

It is --- debt-- uncontrolled debt.

 

Couldn't agree more. Best thing people can do to prepare for a "system" disaster is never buy things that have no value in themselves. Spend your money on things that have value and use no matter what happens.

 

The European crisis can be cured by kicking out Greece --how the hell did they join any way. You need to fil out a form before you get a credit card so---

They spend spend spend and why not when you have a sugar daddy, get rid.

Spain is trying and wining --slightly. Greece cant even get a government---out!

Americas problems lie with Americans them selves their government is full of 8 year olds more worried about the Tv camera getting their good side and little else.

Seems to be some mind set that a politician has to argue or your not doing your job. So NO--is the automatic answer to--"shall we"--with arms folded of course.

Tax the rich like every one else does,--trouble is it the rich in Government.

Massive money poorly managed oh and stop war-ing you cant afford it.

 

Tax watching TV

 

Exactly--ideas like that!!!

 

Resectfully- I don't agree.

One- I don't feel that the financial crisis is in its very early stages and two, I don't believe that governmental action is either the cause or required to bring about its eventual resolution.

I am a Georgist to the degree that I think of valuations in property to be a primary driver of economic cycles.
The recent global asset bubble in property nearly equaled the worlds combined GDP. Secondary effects on the effected economies exceeded it. As the required correction took place, considerable stress was placed on all. The 'collapse' allready happened. Stessed economies are at risk- this is true and I believe governments are positioned to help limit damage through appropriate action. As it stands however, my guess is that the crisis is resolving itself now and will continue to do so as time passes.

Read this:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp1057.pdf

And perhaps this:
http://www.bis.org/review/r110505c.pdf?frames=0

 

An interesting macro analysis ... somewhat like herding cats. From the IMF conclusions ... "The paper also demonstrates that not accounting for asset price cycles, bubbles, or sectoral changes can generate a large bias in the calculation of the structural balance—one moreover that generally cannot be corrected for by changing the estimated output gap."

... so now they're going to account for asset price cycles and bubbles? How are they going to define them? 'Malinvestments' and 'bubbles' are real, but only on reflection -- just like corrections. To say that a market has corrected is to imply that you knew where it should have gone -- which nobody knows -- there are sophisticated buyers and sellers with opposing opinions participating at every stage. You can correct the path of a car you're driving because you have a prescribed lane to follow, and you know when you're off course. You can't correct the path of a market.

And currently governments must think appropriate action is spending -- because that's what they're doing. Increasing spending, but slowing the rate of growth is now known as austerity.

I will take the position that the crisis hasn't even begun -- the last 4 to 5 years were just a wake-up call. While holding a constant heading, the passage of time only makes the collision more imminent.

In my daily reading I found Arnold Kling asking some what-if questions today.

 

And it's not as if there was no warning ... former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan giving testimony to Congress in 2005 ...

 

And our former

1st Minister Fillon, said in 2007 the France is in bankrupsy situation....and all the left parti said 'it is not true ,we are a 'rich' contry , we can spend more money" and they push hardly for spend more ... and no they come back , I am affraid they will spend more and more and finaly we will be worst than the Grece(if not yet!) (and they want absolutly keept the Gréce in euro Frenchs already give 50 billions to the Greece it 's change something ?? Yes we got more debts

 

World finances seem pretty screwed up from where I'm sitting. Greece is pretty much taking the spot light these days but the rest of the pigs haven't exactly disappeared. The US condition has hardly improved one dot, Cal, just came out with its billions of dollars deficit and how many other states are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Looks like things actually got worse with unemployment at a steady high, and now we carry even more debt. So the strain on services and the laws that allow the wealthy to escape taxation must catch up at some point. Also the exchange of wealth from west to east is still moving at breakneck speed.

The bail outs over the last few years are bandaid fixes, nothings changed, so how is stability to be expected ? Yup the banks got caught with there pants down. But has that really changed either ? Check banks in the news and get back to us on if the banking sector is really all that healthy these days.

 

Wealthy for the most part do not escape taxation, that is political fodder for the ignorant. The top 1 percent of earners pay about 30 percent of taxes collected, top 5 percent pay about half of all taxes. Lower half of wage earners pay almost no taxes at all (and the last few years I am in that category as well, lest you think I am one of the "wealthy").

If you take all of the income of the wealthy, we will still have government overspending, we will still have a huge deficit, and we will have an even more irresponsible government.

Government spending is about 27 percent of GDP, the economy always suffers when government spending get above about 20 percent. That spending is not helping the economy, that is Keynesian voodoo, it never works to deficit spend your way out of recession. Money taken from the private sector for government programs takes money away from investment and productive uses, uses that generate profits and tax revenues. So taking more taxes will slow the economy further.

The only way out of our problems, and this is true for Greece as well, is to reduce the size of government, reduce taxes and allow the private sector to grow with lower taxes and lower regulations. That will create jobs, create profits, and generate more tax revenues.

That is not about to happen in either country, because too many people in charge now think borrowing more money and spending more than we have on government programs will advance their career more than true statesmanship.

 

Exactly.

 

The basis for there being NO productive enterprise is that the markets are manipulated ie - - there are no open and honest markets there is volumes of documentation and evidence but the thread with those links is closed, - and so - go find your own now... COMEX is fixed, (rigged & manipulated), by the 'high speed algorithm traders', DERIVATIVES (etf such as 'gld' and 'slv' are worthless fiat trades of emoticons and NOT backed by anything that is tangible or real)... This stupidity pervades all commerce and when there is no trust and no honesty, BUSINESS DIES...

Manipulation of a troubled market makes matters worse ("quantitative easing" = printing or creating money, fixing interest rates artificially low reduces incentive to make stuff because the profitability of an enterprise dies because the markets are rigged and speculation and further manipulation are all that is left)... To borrow more because you need the money to pay other debts is stupid beyond belief, - - Yet it persists as the saviour of the financial systems of the world which are BROKE beyond redemption or repair...

 

Returning to Free enterprise and free markets and sustainable sized non-intrusive government couldn't hurt.