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arctic ice increases 60%

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by rasorinc, Sep 11, 2013.

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kach22i Architect

SamSam said: ↑

These two graphs come from there and also suggests to me a possible reason behind this latest supposed Antarctic sea ice increase. That while the satellite photos show increasing surface area of ice, they don't show the volume of ice. If there is more freshwater from previous ice melt, as BB says, pushed by higher winds, it will float and spread out in a bigger area. It would be like skim ice in a pond, thick enough to catch snow and look the same as thick ice, but in reality is not thick and so has no volume.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFMDmS783Ro#action=share

and this one.

.
Click to expand...

Interesting information, below is what I posted last week in another forum.

Ice | M3GA V 7.1

A typical October in the Arctic
Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Figure 3. Monthly October ice extent for 1979 to 2013 shows a decline of –7.1% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Click to expand...

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Conditions in context
Figure 2. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of November 4, 2013, along with daily ice extent data for five previous years. 2013 is shown in blue, 2012 in green, 2011 in orange, 2010 in pink, 2009 in navy, and 2008 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 average is in dark gray. Sea Ice Index data.
Click to expand...

http://community.runnersworld.com/t...t-look-at-end-oct-early-nov-and-the-thickness

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012_10_01_archive.html

George: Architect (land lover type)
Hovercraft & Vintage Porsche Owner
http://www.boatdesign.net/forums/boat-design/hovercraft-experimental-skirt-project-11973.html

kach22i, Dec 11, 2013

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Making the Plio Scene – What the Past tells us about Sea Level

http://skepticalscience.com/making-the-plio-scene-sinclair.html

ImaginaryNumber, Dec 12, 2013

#302

1 person likes this.

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Incredible.

hoytedow, Dec 13, 2013

#303

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member
Why is Antarctic sea ice growing?

This is a re-post of an article at The Conversation by Guy Williams from the University of Tasmania

Recently NASA reported that this year’s maximum wintertime extent of Antarctic sea ice was the largest on record, even greater than the previous year’s record.

This is understandably at odds with the public’s perception of how polar ice should respond to a warming climate, given the dramatic headlines of severe decline in Arctic summertime extent. But the “paradox of Antarctic sea ice” has been on climate scientists' minds for some time.

Continental v. Sea Ice
First off, sea ice is different to the “continental ice” associated with polar ice caps, glaciers, ice shelves and icebergs. Continental ice is formed by the gradual deposition, build up and compaction of snow, resulting in ice that is hundreds to thousands of metres thick, storing and releasing freshwater that influences global sea-level over thousands of years.

Sea ice, though equally important to the climate system, is completely different. It is the thin layer (typically 1-2m) of ice that forms on the surface of the ocean when the latter is sufficiently cooled enough by the atmosphere.

From there sea ice can move with the winds and currents, continuing to grow both by freezing and through collisions (between the floes that make up the ice cover). When the atmosphere, and/or ocean is suitably warm again, such as in spring or if the sea ice has moved sufficiently towards the equator, then the sea ice melts again.

Antarctic v. Arctic
Secondly, we need to understand that the Arctic and Antarctic climate systems are very different, particularly in sea ice.

In the Arctic, sea ice forms in an ocean roughly centred on the North Pole that is surrounded by continents. A relatively large (though diminishing) proportion of the ice persists over multiple years before ultimately departing for warmer latitudes through exit points such as Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard.

In the south, on the other hand, sea ice forms outwards from the continental Antarctic Ice Sheet, where it is exposed to and strongly influenced by the winds and waters of the Southern Ocean. Here, there is a much stronger seasonal ebb and flow to sea ice coverage as over 80% of the sea ice area grows each autumn-winter and decays each spring-summer. This annual expansion-contraction from about 4 to 19 million square kms is one of the greatest seasonal changes on the Earth’s surface.

Area v. Volume
Finally we need to remember that “extent” or “areal coverage” is only one way with which we monitor and study sea ice.

Sea ice turns out to be a very complex and variable medium that is very difficult to observe over large-scales. It is also constantly moving and restructuring. Until we achieve the “holy grail” of monitoring total sea ice volume from space and how it changes over time (and there are great steps towards this with European Space Agency’s environmental research satellite CryoSat-II), we are limited to interpreting its global behaviour through area.

What happened this winter?
This winter, the maximum total Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be 19.47 million square kilometres, which is 3.6% above the winter average calculated from 1981 to 2010. This continues a trend that is weakly positive and remains in stark contrast to the decline in Arctic summer sea ice extent (2013 was 18% below the mean from 1981-2010).

To further complicate this picture, we find this net increase actually masks strong declines in particular regions around Antarctica, such as in the Bellingshausen Sea, which are on par or greater than those in the Arctic.

So while there is much greater attention given to the Arctic decline and the prediction of “ice-free summers” at the North Pole this century, Antarctic climate scientists still have their work cut out to understand the regional declines amidst the mild “net” expansion occurring in the southern hemisphere.

Here are some of the leading hypotheses currently being explored through a combination of satellite remote sensing, fieldwork in Antarctica and numerical model simulations – to help explain the increasing trend in overall Antarctic sea ice coverage:

Increased westerly winds around the Southern Ocean, linked to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation related to ozone depletion, will see greater northward movement of sea ice, and hence extent, of Antarctic sea ice.

Increased precipitation, in the form of either rain or snow, will increase the density stratification between the upper and middle layers of the Southern Ocean. This might reduce the oceanic heat transfer from relatively warm waters at below the surface layer, and therefore enhancing conditions at the surface for sea ice.

Similarly, a freshening of the surface layers from this precipitation would also increase the local freezing point of sea ice formation.

Another potential source of cooling and freshening in the upper ocean around Antarctica is increased melting of Antarctic continental ice, through ocean/ice shelf interaction and iceberg decay.

The observed changes in sea ice extent could be influenced by a combination of all these factors and still fall within the bounds of natural variability.

The take home messages is that while the increase in total Antarctic sea ice area is relatively minor compared to the Arctic, it masks the fact that some regions are in strong decline. Given the complex interactions of winds and currents driving patterns of sea ice variability and change in the Southern Ocean climate system, this is not unexpected.

But it is still fascinating to study.
Click to expand...
ImaginaryNumber, Dec 14, 2013

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Unbelievable.

hoytedow, Dec 14, 2013

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Alaska glaciers over the decades show proof of climate change | DAILY MAIL

Alaska's glaciers have radically changed over the past two centuries.

One of the methods used to depict the change has been repeat photography - the art of taking a picture and the returning to the same place decades later to take the same picture.

Repeat photography is a technique in which a historical photograph and a modern photograph, both having the same field of view, are compared and contrasted to quantitatively and qualitatively determine their similarities and differences.

This technique was used at a number of locations in Alaska, including Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Kenai Fjords National Park, and the northwestern Prince William Sound area of the Chugach National Forest, to document and understand changes to glaciers and landscapes as a result of changing climate.

Through analysis and interpretation of these photographic pairs, information is extracted to document Alaskan landscape evolution and glacier dynamics for the last century-and-a-quarter on local and regional scales and the response of the Alaskan landscape to retreating glacier ice.

The pictures below come courtesy of the United States Geological Survey and The Weather Channel.
Click to expand...

Now you see them, then you don't: The McCarty glacier has completely retreated by 2004 (left), but completely obscured these mountains in 1909 (right)

McCarty Glacier: The ice seen in 1909 (left) has retreated to the point the mountain it froze over is now covered in grass in 2004 (right)

See article for four more image-pairs.

ImaginaryNumber, Dec 18, 2013

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bluebox3000 Junior Member

As this is a boat-ing forum the real concern must be all this ice increase on the use of boats. When will we run out of room to boat?....... We need a graph on that....

bluebox3000, Dec 18, 2013

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

bluebox3000 said: ↑

As this is a boat-ing forum the real concern must be all this ice increase on the use of boats. When will we run out of room to boat?....... We need a graph on that....
Click to expand...

Fishing will improve because they will be more concentrated in the portion which remains unfrozen.

hoytedow, Dec 18, 2013

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Petros Senior Member

on the bright side; the ski season will last longer.

Petros, Dec 19, 2013

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Beavers will be furrier.

hoytedow, Dec 19, 2013

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Global Warming: Four Degree Rise Will End Vegetation 'Carbon Sink', Research Suggests | SCIENCE DAILY

Latest climate and biosphere modelling suggests that the length of time carbon remains in vegetation during the global carbon cycle -- known as 'residence time' -- is the key "uncertainty" in predicting how Earth's terrestrial plant life -- and consequently almost all life -- will respond to higher CO2 levels and global warming, say researchers.

Carbon will spend increasingly less time in vegetation as the negative impacts of climate change take their toll through factors such as increased drought levels -- with carbon rapidly released back into the atmosphere where it will continue to add to global warming.

Researchers say that extensive modelling shows a four degree temperature rise will be the threshold beyond which CO2 will start to increase more rapidly, as natural carbon 'sinks' of global vegetation become "saturated" and unable to sequester any more CO2 from the Earth's atmosphere...
Click to expand...

ImaginaryNumber, Dec 20, 2013

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Not to worry. It will get much colder before things warm up again.
I worry my bananas will freeze.

hoytedow, Dec 20, 2013

#312

whitepointer23 Previous Member

hoytedow said: ↑

Beavers will be furrier.
Click to expand...

do you prefer furry beavers.

whitepointer23, Dec 20, 2013

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Petros Senior Member

ImaginaryNumber said: ↑

Global Warming: Four Degree Rise Will End Vegetation 'Carbon Sink', Research Suggests | SCIENCE DAILY
Click to expand...

so how come they do not consider that the carbon residence time might actually increase if atmospheric carbon increases? looks like they are assuming it will decrease.

this also assumes that higher carbon means higher temperatures, yet the last few decades temp has not increased measurably yet carbon continues to rise.

It appears their analysis ignores actually observations. looks like a "guess" to me.

Petros, Dec 20, 2013

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SamSam Senior Member

Petros said: ↑

so how come they do not consider that the carbon residence time might actually increase if atmospheric carbon increases? looks like they are assuming it will decrease.

this also assumes that higher carbon means higher temperatures, yet the last few decades temp has not increased measurably yet carbon continues to rise.

It appears their analysis ignores actually observations. looks like a "guess" to me.
Click to expand...

Here's a guess. They do not consider that the carbon residence time might actually increase if atmospheric carbon increases because none of their models based on their research and observations indicate that it will. They all indicate that it won't.

If you put in both sides of the question into the Modeler Machine....what's the point? 0 + 1 + -1 = 0. I mean, if one side is based on actual facts or a reasonable facsimile, and the other is based on pure guesswork unsupported by anything.....why bother? What's to be learned from doing that?

SamSam, Dec 20, 2013

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