What Do We Think About Climate Change

[TeddyDiver]

So what about 1936?

Any link to that? Just curious ( and a bit skeptic too)

 

[Jimbo1490]

your right nothing ive said is original not being a reputable climate scientist, but i follow the most reputable science available and repeat that

The men I mentioned above are as reputable and eminent in the field of climate studies as ANY you can bring to the discussion.

Dr. John R. Christy​

Professor and Director
Earth System Science Center
National Space Science and Technology Center
320 Sparkman Drive
Huntsville, AL 35805
john.christy@nsstc.uah.edu

Ph.D., Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, 1987
M.S., Atmospheric Sciences, , University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, 1984
B.A., Mathematics, California State University, Fresno, 1969

Dr. John R. Christy is Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville where he began studying global climate issues in 1987. In November 2000 Gov. Don Siegelman appointed him to be Alabamaâs State Climatologist. In 1989 Dr. Roy W. Spencer, a NASA/Marshall scientist, and Christy developed a global temperature data set from microwave data observed from satellites beginning in 1979. For this achievement, the Spencer-Christy team was awarded NASA's Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement in 1991. In 1996, they were selected to receive a Special Award by the American Meteorological Society "for developing a global, precise record of earth's temperature from operational polar-orbiting satellites, fundamentally advancing our ability to monitor climate."

Dr. Christy has served as a Contributor (1992, 1994 and 1996) and Lead Author (2001) for the U.N. reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in which the satellite temperatures were included as a high-quality data set for studying global climate change. He has or is serving on five National Research Council panels or committees and has performed research funded by NASA, NOAA, DOE, DOT and the State of Alabama and has published many articles including studies appearing in Science, Nature, Journal of Climate and The Journal of Geophysical Research. Dr. Christy has provided testimony to several congressional committees.

Richard S. Lindzen​

Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences

Professor Lindzen is a dynamical meteorologist with interests in the broad topics of climate, planetary waves, monsoon meteorology, planetary atmospheres, and hydrodynamic instability. His research involves studies of the role of the tropics in mid-latitude weather and global heat transport, the moisture budget and its role in global change, the origins of ice ages, seasonal effects in atmospheric transport, stratospheric waves, and the observational determination of climate sensitivity. He has made major contributions to the development of the current theory for the Hadley Circulation, which dominates the atmospheric transport of heat and momentum from the tropics to higher latitudes, and has advanced the understanding of the role of small scale gravity waves in producing the reversal of global temperature gradients at the mesopause, and provided accepted explanations for atmospheric tides and the quasi-biennial oscillation of the tropical stratosphere. He pioneered the study of how ozone photochemistry, radiative transfer and dynamics interact with each other. He is currently studying what determines the pole to equator temperature difference, the nonlinear equilibration of baroclinic instability and the contribution of such instabilities to global heat transport. He has also been developing a new approach to air-sea interaction in the tropics, and is actively involved in parameterizing the role of cumulus convection in heating and drying the atmosphere and in generating upper level cirrus clouds. He has developed models for the Earth's climate with specific concern for the stability of the ice caps, the sensitivity to increases in CO2, the origin of the 100,000 year cycle in glaciation, and the maintenance of regional variations in climate. Prof. Lindzen is a recipient of the AMS's Meisinger, and Charney Awards, the AGU's Macelwane Medal, and the Leo Huss Walin Prize. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, and the Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters, and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society. He is a corresponding member of the NAS Committee on Human Rights, and has been a member of the NRC Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and the Council of the AMS. He has also been a consultant to the Global Modeling and Simulation Group at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and a Distinguished Visiting Scientist at California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. (Ph.D., '64, S.M., '61, A.B., '60, Harvard University)

Roy Spencer​

Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

Dr. Spencer’s research has been entirely supported by U.S. government agencies: NASA, NOAA, and DOE. He has never been asked by any oil company to perform any kind of service. Not even Exxon-Mobil.

Dr. Spencer’s first popular book on global warming, Climate Confusion (Encounter Books), is now available at Amazon.com and BarnesAndNoble.com.

Ian D. Clark​

Professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Ottawa (Canada), who has been writing about geoscience and geochemistry since at least 1982. His graduate work in isotope hydrogeology was at the University of Waterloo and the University of Paris. Clark has written numerous articles for the Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, for over 25 years.

Jimbo

 

[Jimbo1490]

Any link to that? Just curious ( and a bit skeptic too)

Sea ice extent has only been measured since the advent of satellites. Sea captains of the day reported that arctic sea ice had disappeared. Good temperature data from the time is available and is graphed below. The temp data backs up the mariner's reports as it was in fact warmer in the arctic in the 1930's than recently, with 1936 being the year of peak temperatures. Note that our CO2 emissions were more than an order of magnitude smaller than present during this period, a level we can NEVER hope to return to, whatever the cost.



Jimbo

 

[TeddyDiver]

Sea captains of the day reported that arctic sea ice had disappeared.

I wouldn't call that a fact then.. I can't either imagine anyone of them having anything to do north from Svalbard/Spizbergen so the reports mean there were no floating ice around the places they had business.. Maybe coastal northern Alaska, Hudson bay etc.. Bering sea you never see ice in summer Am I right?

 

[Jimbo1490]

I wouldn't call that a fact then.. I can't either imagine anyone of them having anything to do north from Svalbard/Spizbergen so the reports mean there were no floating ice around the places they had business.. Maybe coastal northern Alaska, Hudson bay etc.. Bering sea you never see ice in summer Am I right?

If the temp data from the period did not concur, I might tend to agree with you. But we have very accurate thermometer temp data from back then, and the graphed data I posted above shows that it was warmer in 1936 than today's warm period. Do you not agree?

The combination of these mariner's reports and good temp data make a very convincing case.


If you disbelieve this, then you have no business whatsoever believing in such cornerstones of the AGW alarm case as the MBH (and later only BH) tree ring studies as they are founded on extremely flimsy and highly extrapolated/manipulated data, with absolutely NO thermometer data AT ALL to corroborate, and often completely at odds with anecdotal accounts of the periods in question.

You must apply you data standards fairly, and when you do, it's the AGW alarmist data that suffers the most by far.

Jimbo

 

[TeddyDiver]

Well, this doesn't support your opinion either.. thou they were warmer times..

 

[TeddyDiver]

And to make my side clear in this discussion: I'm just waiting here the NorthEast passage to become sailable for smallish yachts

 

[Jimbo1490]

Teddy,

That report does not disagree with anything I've said. It acknowledges the early 20th century warming as being of a similar magnitude and rapidity and furthermore concedes that it was due to natural variation. The gist of the report was that the present warming is anomalous (anthropogenic), not that the past ones were smaller in magnitude.

Excerpted:

"The anthropogenic forcing in the 1920s–1930s
was far too weak to generate the observed warming—the change in the GHG forcing in the early decades of the twentieth century was only ∼20% of the present (Roeckner et al., 1999). The most plausible explanation in this case is the low-frequency, multidecadal oscillation related to North Atlantic Ocean circulation (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994; Delworth and Mann, 2000; Polyakov and Johnson, 2000)."

Jimbo

 

[TeddyDiver]

That report does not disagree with anything I've said.

Fig 5 on page 9-- No complete sea ice disappereance

 

[mark775]

Senator Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.) - recently appointed to the Senate Energy Committee - made clear that fighting the climate crisis is her top priority; "Climate change is very real," she confessed as she embraced cap and trade's massive tax increase. "I feel it when I'm flying."
Warmers now feel that we have four months to adapt (accept cap and trade), "or perish" http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocus/sgspeeches/statments_full.asp?statID=557
The brain trust never ceases to amaze.

 

[Jimbo1490]

Fig 5 on page 9-- No complete sea ice disappereance

Another excerpt:

"From the mid 1930s, aviation was used to collect ice information and from the mid 1940s became the main source of sea-ice information in the Siberian Arctic. The
observations attain a regular character covering (with some exceptions) the entire navigation season. An attempt has been made to obtain these missing mean annual data, using incomplete data from 1924–1946 to reconstruct the conditions of those years.

With this aim, using the 1946–1999 series, the equation: Y 2 =0.528 X2 + 1065 was derived, where Y 2 is the mean sea-ice extent in the Siberian seas in June–October, and X2 is the ice area in the Siberian seas in August. The correlation between X2 and Y 2 is r ∼ 0.93. The ratio s/σ = 0.33 again suggests a sufficiently high reconstruction quality based on the knowledge of ice extent only in August."

So the report acknowledges that the data was spotty for this period in time and that the graphs are based on data points which were extrapolated using the above formula.

This DOES NOT contradict the mariner's report's of missing sea ice!


Jimbo

 

[TeddyDiver]

That's right Jimbo.. Anyways, noboby (excluding occasional explorers) had anything to do further north from the northern coastlines so case remains unsolved..

Totally another case of ancient warming is from the area where nowadays lies the thickest and most "longliving" sea ice in the arctic, the northern coast of Greenland.. About 2k years ago that very same area is where the eskimo culture, known as Thule culture, evolved to it's prime. And that is a firm prove that there were annual ice free sea around..

 

[Guillermo]

Teddy,
I posted a while ago a photograph of several USA submarines emerged at precisely the North Pole around 1940 or so. I cannot easily find when I did, as I'm sailing around our beautiful Rias aboard good old "Marie" and mobile internet connection is not very good.

Jim,
It's amazing to find new posters here who undoubtedly have not taken the care of reading first the whole thread. You are a patient man indeed.

Boston,
It's alzo amazing to realize onece again you have learnt nothing after all this long debate and stubborly keep on refusing to accept evidence.

Regards everybody.

 

[TeddyDiver]

Teddy,
I posted a while ago a photograph of several USA submarines emerged at precisely the North Pole around 1940 or so.

Thats not 1936.. and there's allways cracks and occasional openwater depending of the currents and winds so...

It's alzo amazing to realize onece again you have learnt nothing after all this long debate and stubborly keep on refusing to accept evidence.

That's a matter of opinion so controversal are the facts and esp the conclusions presented. Only future will show the outcome and even then people will disagree of the reasons..

 

[TeddyDiver]

Where you think the photographer is standing