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New research shows Arctic could see ice-free summers by 2030

New research has moved up the time by which the Arctic Ocean is predicted to be free of summer ice.

Previous estimates had suggested that Arctic summer sea ice wouldn't disappear until the 2040s at the earliest. If humanity managed to bring its emissions down, year-round sea ice might even survive.

A paper published Tuesday in the journal Nature has concluded that those northern waters could be open for months at a time as early as 2030, even if humanity manages to drastically scale back its greenhouse gas emissions.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
 
Water, Ice, Society, Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

-- is the most accurate assessment of changes to the Asia high mountain cryosphere to date. It is also the first time their impacts on water, biodiversity and society have been properly mapped.
  • Glaciers disappeared 65% faster in the 2010s than in the previous decade
  • On current emissions pathways 80% of glaciers’ current volume will be gone by 2100
  • Availability of water is expected to peak in mid-century and then decline
  • Floods and landslides are projected to increase
 
Highlights From "Worsening Winds"
BACKGROUND
To understand how properties’ exposure to and damage from tropical cyclones will be impacted by climate change, this report introduces the First Street Foundation Wind Model (FSF-WM). The FSF-WM is a probabilistic property-level risk model that estimates likely wind damages by exploring the vulnerability of structures to their exposure to tropical cyclone wind conditions at different return periods, and projecting changes in that exposure over the next 30 years....

NATIONAL OVERVIEW
Overview of national patterns in the contiguous United States, the Gulf and East Coasts face the highest probabilities of tropical cyclone winds that can cause significant damage to properties and infrastructure. Over the next 30 years, the tropical cyclones which develop are more likely to become major hurricanes, with greater intensities, and therefore their effects will reach further inland. While wind exposure and damages are most significant along the coast, they are likely to increase inland drastically in many places that have never before been exposed. Additionally, over the next 30 years, tropical cyclones will push further northward before making landfall. Overall, in the next 30 years, Average Annual Loss will increase from $18.5 billion to $19.9 billion, and 13.4 million properties will face tropical cyclone level wind risk that do not currently face such risk. By region, the impacts of these changes in tropical cyclone patterns differ....
 
"The Solar Cycle: Sunspots increase and decrease through an average cycle of 11 years. Dating back to 1749, we have experienced 23 full solar cycles where the number of sunspots have gone from a minimum, to a maximum and back to the next minimum, through approximate 11 year cycles. We are now well into the 24th cycle."
The Sun and Sunspots https://www.weather.gov/fsd/sunspots#:~:text=Times%20of%20maximum%20sunspot%20activity,true%20during%20minimum%20sunspot%20activity.
"One interesting aspect of solar cycles is that the sun went through a period of near zero sunspot activity from about 1645 to 1715. This period of sunspot minima is called the Maunder Minimum. The "Little Ice Age" occurred over parts of Earth during the Maunder Minimum."
So, how do sun spots relate to actual weather changes here on Earth?
"There is research which shows evidence that Earth's climate is sensitive to very weak changes in the Sun's energy output over time frames of 10s and 100s of years. Times of maximum sunspot activity are associated with a very slight increase in the energy output from the sun. Ultraviolet radiation increases dramatically during high sunspot activity, which can have a large effect on the Earth's atmosphere. The converse is true during minimum sunspot activity."
"...the influence of the Sun's energy output and its effect on our climate with the "noise" created by a complex interaction between our atmosphere, land and oceans can be difficult. For example, there is research which shows that the Maunder Minimum not only occurred during a time with a decided lack of sunspot activity, but also coincided with a multi-decade episode of large volcanic eruptions. Large volcanic eruptions are known to hinder incoming solar radiation. Finally, there is also evidence that some of the major ice ages Earth has experienced were caused by Earth being deviated from its average 23.5 degree tilt on its axis. Indeed Earth has tilted anywhere from near 22 degrees to 24.5 degrees on its axis. But overall when examining Earth on a global scale, and over long periods of time, it is certain that the solar energy output does have an affect on Earth's climate."
I suspect there is a relationship between the electromagnetic activity of the Sun and the Earth's electromagnetic activity. Our pole is currently wandering more than in recent history and there may be an inductive relationship between fluctuations in our magnetic field and volcanic activity that could even drive outer core magma weather. But, as the article says, there is too much noise to tell.

-Will
 
Boat Design Net Monitor...this has so much drift that it has become a one note tirade...perhaps it needs to be closed.
 
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