The end of the world is near....... what Yacht will you build?

I hate to claim a voice of reality in such a fantastic (horrific) picture,
but,
If we are talking about sea level rising from global warming/climate change,
then it will not be fast or rapid- at least not in terms of comparing it to the tragic SE Asian tsunami.

Sure, as the water rises, weather is expected to become more extreme (extremities that we are arguably already witnessning).
So freak storm swells and the like, could cause localised small scale destruction like the tsunami.

There will probably be areas of rapid sea rise, where a landlocked area that gradually creeps below the rising sea finally breaks through- like a damn wall collapsing, only this time the ocean is the resovoir.

But generally, this is going to be a slow creeping up, with with each high tide coming just a tiny bit higher, and then a few king tides that come a bit more. This will be a process over decades and centuries, not years, months or days. Get ready for a lot of erosion. Lots of video footage of billion dollar beachfront mansions topling into the sea.

If you want to consider a situation where there is a dramatic enough ice melt to cause a tsunmai or tsunami like occurance, then you have got to explian where all of that energy is coming from.
Aliens from space zapping our poles?
Meteoric impact?
Massive nuclear war between the north and the south pole?
Simultaneous volcanic eruptions under all glaciers and across all snow covered land?

I am not asking you to blindly trust in what the scientists tell you (please see my picture for example) but just to use your own logic- how could that much ice melt so quickly?

The other thing is, that if the sea was going to rise that quickly, like you said Welly "Most ship and boat are in marina and dock waiting for destruction". Anything we invest in and build before hand will probably get washed away. I can't see the insurance covering that wave either
We might be better off investing our money in some mountain property, with lots of trees (wood for boatbuilding) and start our own marina?

[EDIT- sorry- the scenario of a slow sea level rise over a couple of hundred years just isn't as much fun to think about... Hans (Killjoy)]

 

Why, has God been emailing you boat designs again?

 

The CO2 level rising...... Reclaiming land from sea without control,........ not enough tree to absorb water.......... shifting tectonic plates even below ocean......... my favourite.... nuclear testing by new found eager nuke countries....... these gentlement would be well control.... but what if something go wrong and we are swimming and thinking who the **** did all these?

Remember magnetic force is great...... 10,000 year ago the north and south pole changes place............ the sea now dry out as plates shift. We are not more than 50km of crust sitting on floating big glup.......... strawberry my favourite.......

Then imagine the pressure change and the switch somewhere done without our eyes noticing..... all electricity law and instrument haywire and migrant bird have a major misdirection......... The snow need just a cannon shot to wake and tumble............................... Dont you know pieces of pole have been known to break away? size of N.Y.?

Phew............... and all you want is to sun bake yourself in the highland....

WDH

 

Ok,
lets just say the melt is rapid, and hey, lets also say that the poles shift.

I am off to Antartica- the new frontier.
Here is a map from http://www.geo.utexas.edu/courses/371c/Labs/Lab8.htm
Figure 14. DEM of Antarctica after isostatic rebound and a sea level rise of 80.5 meters. Blue areas are below sea level. Black line is coastline/zero elevation contour relative to a mean sea level that is 80.5 meters above the present level. Bright yellow shows areas of present rock outcroppings; red dot is south pole. (or where south pole used to be )

Not bad hey?

It is a nice looking continent. I would go down (not far from me- Melbourne and if I am lucky my boat will get me there ) and stake out my own island or bay, sheltered from open see, (new) North facing, mountain views, fresh water lake or spring, beaches, etc.. take some seeds, a few supplies....
With the poles shifted, it would be 28 degrees every day , the floating coconuts would soon be grown, and I will be kicken back in my antarctic tropical paradise.

Care to visit?

[EDIT- adding political map of claims to Antarctica- how much does your country have?)

 

Claiming the poles will be like claiming the Moon as your backyard......

The ice age will come after the ice melt....... it the way earth repair itself....... we are only a small hinderance for her........

Its like tide taking in rubbish and washes out later.

You build your paradise and it would be buried along Alien VS Predator movee.... which one are you.......... janitor of the alien Terracotta?

WDH

 

Welly,
if all the ice melts, you can have the north pole and I wil have the south pole .
Not much left up there is there.

If the poles did shift (as they are due to soon) then they won't be shifting for a long long time again.
So when the new ice age does come, then somwhere else will be the new pole.
Besides that, we will all be dust by that time.
And if humankind as a whole is not already dust too, then property on the moon will be old news. intergalacticspaceshipdesign.net will be more likely place that our great great great greatgreatgreat... grandchildren will be talking.:idea:

 

Dude!

You ought to come here (to the US of A) and work in Hollywood. Irwin Allen coudn't do better.

Bob

 

I dont know........ I love the tropical situation and the forest calm me down....... I love art and plenty of lumber to be creative............... but you are always welcome over here......

Must be the crazy sizzling hot food........ Chillies is my life I am an Indonesian afterall and the work I have pay my rent so I am not greedy.


WDH

 

Hans77,

I suggest that this USV will suit your cause as long as you can iinstall a foldable wingsail on top.......... You get a walking factory.... and nursey if you like.

WDH

 

YURI design option? This will blast off your vodka...........

 

Steam!

(Going with the 50m or abouts rise in sea level, since there's not enough water to flood the entire world more than another 12 to 18%, depending on cause of the rise)

Governments would not likely fail terribly at a 50m rise in sea level. Too much industry and technology would remain for complete failure. In addition, look at how the people of the US have reacted in a major disasters. The black out in NYC? everybody chilled for a few days till it came back. The massive flood of the Mississippi in the 90s? People poured in to stem the tide and help the victims. A situation like New Orleans is unlikely since the water rise happened very quickly and the people all lived well below sea level.

The greater likely hood is a few weeks at the quickest for levels to rise, even if a volcano popped up right under the artic cap. Events like this can't happen in a matter hours like a recent movie might claim. Weeks is plenty of time to sell you assests, purchase the large stock pile of spare parts and fuel up. Most people would not take to the seas but instead turn to higher ground. Even if the level of the midwest dropped and flooded (once thought to be underwater in the days of the dinos), the two binding ranges have large quantities of land availiable and most people would move inland to places like Tennessee or Kentucky or Montana or Ohio or Colorado (For those in the USA).


Considering these conditions (for they are the only ones that make sense), I will go with dual low pressure boilers piped to a pair of converted 2 cycle scavenging diesel engines on board a steel monohull (probably a trawler). Why?

1. Moving parts operate at such a low intensity that the original life span of two to three decades is catapaulted to atleast half a century. All wear a tear parts can be cheaply stocked up on or scavenged. Other parts could be machined in a matter of a day or two with small scale machine shop tools. With nearly indestructable engines, the ability to move anytime with a heavy (compared to sailing vessels) displacement at a satisfactory clip without worrying over wear and tear.

2. Boilers have one major part that wears out. Tubes. Low pressure boilers can utilize copper pipe and repair work requires no special training or tools. Plus, copper, being an easily mined and smelted material, it is cheap now (allowing significant stock pile of spare pipe) and likely one of the first materials whose industry will return (along with steel, another metal of good use after a few decades of trolling around). With the exception of tubes, other parts can be engineered to stand the test of time. With proper care and water treatment (a 50lb bag of chemicals could last couple decades), the boilers could last half a century.

3. Fuel. Its the bane of all motoryachts.... Fuel for a boiler boat is far more easily obtained. Boilers made with burners can use a variety of fuels, including biodiesel. With the construction of grates, solid fuels can be used as well, especially with the vessel stationary or idle, since heat is needed only to keep the case from cooling. This cannot be done with ICEs.

4. Pumps and other machinery. Sure, eventually some of these will die with little hope of fixing. But with the current price of spares, rebuild kits, and the like, pumps and spares can be made to last a few decades or even most of a century if sufficient supplies are stockpiled.

5. Low level technology. Just about all of the components of a boiler system are possible at the technical base of pre-industrialized world, since the knowledge is already known, only the means must be reproduced. Compare this with the high level chemistry and fine controls needed to manufacture carbon-fiber, various resins, synthetic lines, etc. Many of these items would no doubt be available even after the disaster but the demand would far outstrip the small facilities that would crop up. Most sailing vessels would be forced to fall back on natural lines and their lower strength. More robust sailing vessels would not fall prey to this switch but would still see a speed reduction as more of their sail area became canvas instead of synthetic material.

6. Water. While the remaining land would still have its fresh water, the longer distances between continents and the number of islands which would dissappear neccessitates a greater endurance. For sail boats and ICE motoryachts, this means relying more on their RO water makers for those long hulls. Filters would wear out in and within a few decades, there would be a shortage of replacements. A boiler boat has the advantage of steam to flash fresh water for both boiler and human consumption. Parts, with cleaning last years and are made of common metals. Salvaging even scrap metal to be remade into parts. The unit could last most of a century before finally letting out, if it even if it went toes up that early. Solar stills would become popular but they are subject to weather and deck space.

7. Storage. With great displacement comes greater volume for storage of parts and cargo. With cargo, the boat can pay for itself as the people on land realize the developed harbors of old are no more and facilities capable of supporting large ships disappear. To be sure, new harbors would crop up and if the people reacted quickly, atleast a dozens sites, both old and new, would available for deep draft vessels along either coast on most continents. But for the smaller towns now cut off be immersed highways and the eventual decay of back roads, small vessels remain the only means of supply and trade. A boiler boat operating along the east coast could easily trade goods from the larger industrial centers of Philidelphia, Cheasakpeake Bay and New England for fuel like coal or biodiesels and cargoes like cotton, pottery, leather, skins, canned goods, milk, and luxury goods like furniture, or machinery parts. Sailboats would have to stay even keel or lash down everything tightly... any change in weight while heeled over could be diasasterous even on a calm sunny day.

8. Oil. Machinery needs oil to lubricate. As I have been told, mineral oil works fine for converted diesel engine... Mineral oil is not hard to manufuacture and perhapes other oils would be suitable as well. Even the steering could be run on mineral oil or similar natural oils.

9. Hull. Mono hull motoryachts require compartmenalization for safety (fire and flooding). A steel hull lends itself to easy repair, even in water, and takes a beating like no other material in existence. In addition, steel industries and scrap abound makes it a material most suitable. With lasting paint (plus extra for storage), the hull can last as long as any other museum piece we have sitting around today. Icebergs drift as low as 50 Lat... and in this situation, you never know what to expect.

10. Navigation. Everone else might scuff them but radios, GPS, and Loran C would all find a place on my boat. Especially Radios and Loran C. Since most of the transmitting stations are far inland and serious sefaring nations, if intact to some degree, would try bring these back, since their technology and sophistication are quite low (low enough to where vaccum tubes could be used, if neccessary). Plus, a solidly encased and maintained piece of electronics gear will not wear out. It has no moving parts. Memory on the GPS Charts might some day die (maybe) but the actual stuff will comtinue to run. My sextant and books, would ofcourse, make an appearance.

11. Electronics. Depth finders are a must. Yes you can drop a weighted string but the advantage of a depth finder for navigating by depth (with topo maps) would be too useful in the few years following. If it fail latter, fine, you already should know your stomping grounds.

12. Paper charts. I don't know what charts ya'll use but even a chart made today would be good after the disaster. A 50m (166ft) rise in sea level would just have to be marked on the chart at the appropriate topo line on land. In addition, topo land maps of the regions you might like to operate in can be had and marked on to highlight the new shore line. Sure, the rise will cause fall-offs and changes but the general idea the map would give you is far better than nothing. Who knows? A street maps of NYC could become very useful.

13. Occupation. While floating around, what can I do? Well, board games, card games, fishing, computer games (both on and off the boat LAN), writing, reading from the considerable library on all manners of topics. I'm easy to occupy if I set my mind to it. Radio and CDs and movies would all make their appearances as well. Boiler steam can also distill... screw beer, who wants hard liquor?

14. Defense. Back to the that steel hull. Just weld a mount and snatch a Browning .50 with, perhaps, 1000 rounds of ammo (plus a few light arms, mainly model 1911 .45s and M14/Mini-14s, since parts are abound and the weapons are easy to manufacture and reliability is top notch.)

15. Personnel. I have a intelligent family and numerous trustworthy, seafaring friends. My boat would likely house my friends and brother who double as crew. The family could serve as the shore facility to call home.

16. Manual. EVERYTHING is manual.... Manual reversing gears, manual throttle valves, electrical switches, not automatic timers. If those are available, thats good but all the gear must be able to be operated by a human.

17. Operational tempo. Moving as part of a small flotilla is best. It elimenates risk associated with a single hull and grants greater protection and redundancy. Plus, a flotilla takes on more cargo than one vessel, allowing greater profits and flexiblity in carriage and trade routes.



There it is... And just to way in... water vapor traps many times more heat than CO2... Not to mention the sun is at its hottest ever... SO its not really us... its the hotter sun... I wish these "climatologists" would talk to somebody besides each other. These facts have been known and vocalized by the astonomers for decades... Plus, no one in the community can settle on if it'll be an Ice Age or a Burn Up... every decade or so it changes. (and before you argue, yes, it has been changing, read reports from the 70s through to today... they keep changing the story) Humourously enough, everywhere I've been (and thats 15 countries in the past three years) all have had cooler than norm summers... huh.

 

Ok U seem to be knowning what to expect....... except most American (1/3) is having obesity as a home ritual problem....... with lack of food how can u feed all those growing pain with a huge troll appitite.........?

You need a bunch of lean meat to operate the evacuation......... would you leave the fat and the sad out in the cold?

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Sorry, must have read too much Nat. Geo. books and documentary and other expat folk rambbling while drinking......... cant blame me.....

WDH

 

Oh, I have little doubt that without a strong law-enforcement presence, that the selfish and retarded will try storm the supplies in an attempt to keep themselves fed... But remember the central plains of the US produce more food than could be consumed in a year and a half... our products feed several countries plus our own... The fat people will survive at their weight for a time before enforced food stamps and lower overall food availability would force them to either starve into shape or perish...

The epidemic of obesity is something of a lie... being based on BMI, which it notoriously inaccurate... for example, Will Smith and Arnold the Terminator are obese by BMI standards because they don't factor in that muscle is denser than fat... But, no doubt the rise of obese is present but I would dispute that it is much more than 1/7th or 1/8th of the population... but I think many would shape up to the crisis and the lazy will perish... I hope atleast...

 

As you know I am no authority in the food subject......... but rice would be a long term solution for asian flood until the lets say three years safty zone period is over............ Remeber this is mature nature reselection of who stay and who goes..... I guess.

Seriously, Not the State but everycountry in the world would have their own senario on this............... I am just a weird smart *** with a big mouth from a small unknown remote place......... do have the right to be worried also

Thanks for the input.......... although a lot of the guys say boiler stuff would be inefficient as the Borneo steamship posted.....

WDH

 

Ok I have taken the bait, (deep )
(and by the way I like your steam boat ideas)

Yes water vapor does trap more heat than CO2. The climatologists are well aware of this, and if you wish to find some sources there is much disagreement and different calculations on what these numbers are- but they surely are big.
The difference is that water vapor molecules have a life span of around ten days, and thus act as a regulator, a fast high-gain feedback loop- ie get hotter- turn to cloud- reflect heat- get colder- rain... (simplistic explanation I know..)

On the other hand, CO2 has a lifespan up to 200 years (with other GHG's much longer) and thus acts as a constant (and constantly growing) change affecting parameter- enabling much larger and slower feedback loops. Hence the cliche' of 'once you get the ball rolling it is hard to stop.' For instance, the CO2 can persist for long enough to slightly warm climate, to slowly melt sea ice and sheets which then no longer reflect as much heat away from the earth- thus contribute to warming.
These sort of feedback loops then lead into others, such as if the permafrost of greenland melts, then a massive amount of stored methane will be released (quite a good GHG too).
These arguments however are common, and flood not only the net..

The role of H2O in air does not simply trump the role of CO2 in the climatic feedback loops. CO2 (and other persisting GHG's)changes the very system in which H2O operates within.

For the skeptics, you must understand that whether or not the scientists are right about the current models and predicitons of climate change,
HUMAN ACTIVITY IS CHANGING THE COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
(along with human activity changing the form and composition of the biosphere which regulates, controls and creates the atmosphere)
To not expect some reflexive change in climatic conditions and patterns is pure lunacy.

We are only just begining to understand SOME of the complex positive and negative feedback loops and gearing that control climate.
There are a lot of unknowns.
But the evidence of human induced climate change is simply overwhelming.
To present this 'debate' as one of something near two equal sides is completely misrepresentative of the consensus of the experts in the field.
If you disagree, then please find only 1/10th of the expert CLIMATOLOGISTS that now deny anthropologically induced climate change. Sure there are a couple of 'rogue' sociologists, or economists, or historians, who run the gauntlet of lucrative global lectures and talkbacks (for a media that still needs to present this issue as a 'debate'). And please don't even mention Michael Crichton. - just go and watch the movie twister and see how in touch with scientific reality he is.

Amongst skeptics there seems to be an easy thickheaded view of scientific boffins who have their head in the clouds and are out of touch with reality.
Don't forget that a lot of these people have spent their entire lives learning and practicing these things.
If you are as you well seem quite an expert on steam engines/boats, how might you feel about some bank clerk who maybe had a flick through a steamboat magazine one day at the dentists telling you that you know nothing about steamengines- thats not how they work- he saw one one day and it was crap! useless technology.

For starters, measuring the energy output of the sun is still now a difficult thing to do- so to say astronomers have known these facts for decades? well that is just plain incorrect.

You know I wish that the "climate change skeptics" would talk to somebody besides each other too- so that these sort of innacuracies and myths might stop circulating.

From their best guesses (thats right guesses) scientists think that the sun may have warmed during the early part of the 20th century- corresponding with a climatic warming phase until the 1940's.
However, since the 1970's when real measurment of such things became possible and standard, there has been little considerable percieved increase in solar radiation that would coincide with or explain this greatest period of warming.

Steamfreak (don't freak out but ) the nature of scientific debate is that the story keeps changing. Science is not the 'hard' real thing that the popular image of it seems to portray- it does not build up logically one piece at a time on top of all that was built before!
In the Khunian sense (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Khun) science is a social and dynamic revolutionary process.

While you may find it humourous, the evidence you propose that the past 15 countries you have been in for the last three years have had cooler than norm summers- even if you were to back this up with statistics, this would mean nothing. If you are at all up to date with the situation, climate change does not just mean warmer summers within particular locations- this is WEATHER, it means that the larger pattern of CLIMATE is changing, with more EXTREMES of weather predicted, both heating and cooling.

Now the ice age reference you raise to is commonly confused with the 'day after tommorrow' scenario of a 'mini ice age' forming over the UK as a result of the gulf stream shutting down. Althought the film dramatically exagerated the process and time frame of the theory the rough idea they propose is actually a relevant topic. The gulf stream has shut down in the past, and if warming and ice melt continue then it is may be likely to occur again. Now this doesn't mean that the climate or planet as a whole is getting colder- but that heat and weather within the climate that is now being funnelled up over the UK from the equator will no longer be funneled that way. It means that the UK will return to the sort of climate that it would otherwise geographically be in if it was not for the gulf stream. It also means that somewhere else is going to recieve this heat.

It also means that the UK might become a grey cold and dismal place- hang on...


Anyway after taking your bait hook line and sinker, it is probably important to say that this scenario of Wellys is a fictional fun discussion that is not really concerned with reality (after all Welly started it ).

And if the sea level was to rise 50 meters all of a sudden, I would probably now be preferring some sort of nice little steam engine in my sail boat as a an auxillerily inboard, and maybe even generator. I would like to be able to burn not just biodiesal, but fish oil, wood, and coal, or just about any other thing I might scrounge.