Ocean News

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by ImaginaryNumber, Oct 8, 2015.

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  1. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

  2. ImaginaryNumber
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    ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

    You ask an interesting question, Dejay. Thanks for your patience in waiting for a response. I’ve been rather distracted for the last week.

    Unfortunately, I don’t know of such a scientific study specific to cruisers. Cruisers are really a diverse minority group, and there is a lot of variability of where they cruise and how they cruise. A forum like CruisersForum.com has had this type of question asked in the past, regarding the interaction between Climate Change and cruising, but the discussions have so often devolved into fierce arguing about whether Climate Change is happening or not that the moderators have banned any future discussions that have anything to do with Climate Change.

    It seems to me you’d have to find out the specifics of any cruiser’s agenda to have any hope of giving them guidance. I’m neither an expert cruiser nor an expert climate scientist, so any thoughts I have should be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. That being said there are some generalities that might be concluded.

    The changes to the Arctic, with warmer weather, longer summers, and less sea ice, might be attractive to those cruisers wishing, say, to transit the Northwest Passage. Each year I hear of more and more recreational sailboats lining up each summer to wait for the passages to open. Furthermore, commercial cruise lines are now offering Northwest Passage cruises in icebreaking cruise ships. And commercial tankers are now regularly making runs on the Northern Sea Route, which is across the top of Siberia.

    If a cruiser’s preferred destination is beautiful coral reefs, then the outlook may be less rosy. Yob noted that coral reefs can recover. However, as I recall, full recovery require at least 10 years between bleaching events, but many reefs, such as the Great Barrier Reef, are now being hit every two to three years. Not good!

    Many cruisers prefer to stay in the tropics, and Yob’s chart showing that hurricane frequency is decreasing certainly is encouraging. But it also appears that the percent of hurricanes reaching the higher wind speeds is increasing, which is not encouraging. I guess that gives cruisers an increased incentive to get out of harm’s way during hurricane season.

    I’ve heard some speculate that we should expect increased frequency of pandemics as Earth heats up. If so, countries that rely on tourism may be very stressed during times of disease as to whether to allow tourists/cruisers to enter and exit freely, or to bar travel for extended periods of time and lose the revenue. I understand that a number of cruisers, or at least their boats, have been trapped in the Caribbean this hurricane season because they have not been allowed to leave because of COVID concerns.

    If a cruiser’s preferred destination include remote low-lying islands that are slowly being inundated by rising seas, I’m not sure what cruisers might expect from the increasingly stressed locals. Maybe the natives will see the “wealthy” cruisers as cash cows, to be stripped of any resources they possibly can as the islander’s traditional sources of livelihood become less viable? Or maybe they will be exceedingly grateful for any service opportunity they can provide to the cruising community?

    I guess one of the big attractions of cruising is that if locale “A” no longer seems attractive, then just weigh your anchor and go to locale “B”. Maybe that attitude with continue to work for many cruisers?
     
  3. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Maternal mortality is unacceptably high. About 295 000 women died during and following pregnancy and childbirth in 2017
    Maternal mortality https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/maternal-mortality

    Deaths: 398,146
    Coronavirus Update (Live): 6,844,797 Cases and 398,146 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    of course men don't risk dying in childbirth
    i bet social distancing between genders might prevent pregnancy and consequences
     
  4. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Imaginary Number, welcome back, and fully recovered I hope.
     
  5. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course



    Huge egg sack containing hundreds of thousands of baby squid. Found along various European coasts as far south as Spain, also in Mediterranean and both sides of Atlantic, and off the coast of California in the Pacific
     
  6. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

  7. Dejay
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    Dejay Senior Newbie

    Thank you for your thoughtful response and hope you are well! I'll think a bit more about this.

    Since I am planning to start living on the water, cruising around Europe or the Mediterranian I was mostly wondering if there are any plausible "apocalyptic" changes on a global level in the future that make living on the water just impractical. My guess the most likely scenario are
    1. Flooding and damage from rising sea level and storms drive costs up for docking
    2. Restrictions on fuel or skyrocketing fuel prices kill the boating industry and infrastructure
    3. Pandemics or international tensions or destabilization of countries or regions limits traveling or makes it problematic or dangerous
    4. Local environmental catastrophes limit the regions you can sail to

    But it seems there are no plausible predictions for this. Generally scientific predictions are too conservative, predictions in general very speculative and the doomsaying collapse fringe is just as nuts as the deniers.

    In any case the ability to travel elsewhere to avoid local problems is why I'm thinking of a liveaboard lifestyle.
     
  8. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Humans adapt. So live your dream Dejay. Roll with the punches.

    george-carlin-chardonnay.jpg
     
  9. ImaginaryNumber
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    ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

    Greenland’s ice sheet melts by record amount due to climate change, study shows

    Greenland’s ice sheet experienced record melting last year that was driven by hotter temperatures and more frequent atmospheric circulation patterns triggered by climate change, scientists have confirmed.

    The stark findings show that researchers could also be underestimating future melting by about half, as most models that project future ice loss do not account for impacts from changing atmospheric circulation patterns, according to the study led by Marco Tedesco, a researcher at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
     
  10. ImaginaryNumber
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    ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

    Earth has hottest May on record, with 2020 on track to be one of the top 10 warmest years

    • The Earth had its hottest May ever last month, continuing a climate change trend as 2020 is set to be among the hottest 10 years ever, scientists with the Copernicus Climate Change Service announced on Friday.
    • 2019 was the second-hottest year ever, capping off the world’s hottest decade in recorded history. And six of the warmest years on record were during the past decade.
    • The continuous upward trend in global temperatures results from greenhouse gas emissions that change the climate.
     
  11. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Warmest year on record: what does it mean? | Carbon Brief https://www.carbonbrief.org/warmest-year-on-record-what-does-it-mean

    Comparing single years – whether 2010 was marginally warmer or cooler than 2007, 2003 or 2009 – doesn’t give as reliable a picture because the difference between each year is so slight it falls well within the range of natural variation.

    As Dr Gavin Schmidt from NASA put it last year:

    “for any individual year, the ranking isn’t particularly meaningful. The ranking between the second warmest and sixth warmest years, for example, is trivial.”

    Natural variability in the climate means that temperatures fluctuate up and down over short amounts of time – like year to year, or even over a decade. Take a look at this graph comparing the world’s temperature datasets from 1880 onward:


    My input, yes we are in a warming period. The timing is perfect in the thousand year cycle of warming periods.
    Why would spokespersons for scientific organizations and even Phded scientists, talk like hucksters in a carnival side show? Don't they realize it detracts from their credibility?

    "Step right up folks, and see the second warmest year on record and. for the same dime, you get to see the lady with the second longest beard, too!"


    Why does 'Warmest Year on Record" claims sound like a shoddy sales pitch? because, that's exactly what it is. I ain't buying!

    PS. Congratulations Imaginary Number upon convincing the administration lifting restrictions on your posting topics.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2020
  12. Dejay
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    Dejay Senior Newbie

    So do you deny anthropogenic climate change?
     
  13. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Do you deny the medieval warm period a thousand years ago, the Roman Optimum warm period two thousand years ago, the Minoan warm period three thousand years ago and all the previous cyclic warm periods? All the proxies like ice cores from both poles, tree rings and others indicate they were global warm periods!
    Do you claim humans caused those?
    Of the 400 + parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, humans contributed 12 ppm.
    Is it your claim that 12 ppm is the straw that breaks the camels back?
    Believe what you want. I'll help protect your freedom to do so, just as I protect mine.
    To be forced to comply with your POV, isn't happening without a civil war! We can live in peace if we respect diversity in opinions.
     
  14. Dejay
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    Dejay Senior Newbie

    Respectfully, lets agree to disagree on that last point :D
     

  15. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Takes both sides to want peace. Only one bad actor to loose mayhem!
    But I accept you disagree. You sort of hinted that was your impetus to sail away to elsewhere.
    Good luck and fair winds.
     
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