Is the ocean broken?

LIST OF DOOMSDAY PREDICTIONS THE CLIMATE ALARMIST GOT WRONG

Here is the source for numbers 1-27. As you will see, the individual sources are not crackpots, but scientific studies and media reports on “expert” predictions. The sources for numbers 28-41 are linked individually.

1. 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
2. 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
3. 1970: Ice Age By 2000
4. 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
5. 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
6. 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
7. 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
8. 1974: Another Ice Age?
9. 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life
10. 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
11. 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes
12. 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend
13. 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
14. 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
15. 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
16. 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
17. 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
18. 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
19. 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
20. 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
21. 2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
22. 2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
23. 2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
24. 2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
25. 2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
26. 2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015
27. 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
28. 1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
29. 1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
30. 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
31. 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
32. 1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 90s
33. 1980: Peak Oil In 2000
34. 1996: Peak Oil in 2020
35. 2002: Peak Oil in 2010
36. 2006: Super Hurricanes!
37. 2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
38. 1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
39. 1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
40. 1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
41. 1970s: Killer Bees!

Sorry, Experts… Sorry, Scientific Consensus… Only a fool comes running for the 42nd cry of wolf.

 

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/50-y...c-predictions-the-so-called-experts-are-0-50/

 

Firemen respond to every call. Why?

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

Because they like the siren.

 

Because there are laws and penalties for FALSE alarms. Same should apply to doom sayers.

 

Trust once broken is nearly impossible to repair.

 

I haven't read most of these (and I doubt Yob has either), but I do have some observations based on their titles.

If we are talking about predictions regarding Climate Change I note that a number of Yob's quotes are from the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. While some scientists were indeed raising alarms during that time frame Climate Change science was a nascent discipline then. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wasn't created until 1988, and didn't produce its first report until 1990. I also notice that a number of projections shown by Yob missed the timing a bit, but are fundamentally correct as to the event.

The research of individual scientists, or scientific groups, does not constitute a scientific consensus. Cutting edge research needs to be verified and elaborated before it becomes accepted by the scientific community at large. Some of what I post is cutting edge research, and will likely be modified or generalized before being incorporated into the scientific corpus.

Some of the points raised by Yob were made by (ex)politicians or other public figures. (#22, 23, 24, 25) Since governmental policy will be made by politicians, it is useful to know what they think, but we should not conflate scientific understanding with political pronouncements.

All made by Paul Ehrlich. He was quite a self-promoter with startling predictions. While his timing was off, many think that his predictions were just premature. Water rationing is a fact of life in much of the world, as are famines. The Green Revolution pushed back the worst famines for a number of decades, but the problem of overpopulation and diminishing resources is still a very valid concern.

And still a concern, especially in the southern hemisphere where skin cancers are more prevalent. The Montreal Protocol of 1987 is considered to be a successful example of international cooperation on a world-wide environmental problem.

Very true. I lived in the New York Adirondacks for a number of years. Many lakes there were virtually dead due to acid rain. The restrictions on power plant emissions were necessary and successful.

World wide, all time highs are being set far more often than all time lows.

Again, timing may be off, but the principles are accurate.

I've made recent posts on this topic. Timing off, but a valid concern.

A number of post have been made, including by Yob and Hoyt, which warn of the slowing down of the Gulf Stream and the AMOC, and the potential cooling of Europe if there is a major change of Atlantic currents.

Again, premature timing, but otherwise a serious concern.

As mentioned earlier, public figures may or may not accurately present scientific consensus.

Overpopulation is still a major concern. Overpopulation drives many of the other concerns mentioned in this list. China has experimented with some pretty radical policies to get its population under control. Would be nice if we could come up with less coercive methods.

Resource depletion is a valid concern. Many other resources besides those listed are also being stressed. Recently Hoyt mentioned lithium for car batteries. SamSam has mentioned fish and shark stock depletion. Phosphorus depletion is a big concern for farming.

Predicting peak oil (which is extraneous to the discussion of Climate Change) has been difficult, both due to new technologies allowing the production of petroleum in "tight" fields, and because of the opacity of reserves of many oil-producing countries.

Peak oil
Predicting the timing of peak oil

My recollection is that current understanding is that hurricane frequency has not been increasing, but that the number of Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes has been increasing.

I guess Yob is getting pretty desperate to bring up killer bees on this thread. <laugh>

There is no doubt that the scientific process is far from perfect, yet I would argue that it is by far the best method we humans have for anticipating the future. Yob and Hoyt occasionally slip in their religious hopes and expectations, which we are not allowed to discuss further. But the predictive power of religious "prophets" is deplorable. For some reason people tend to forget all the false prophecies of yore. And cherry picking a few "not spot on" scientific predictions, while ignoring the multitude of accurate predictions, seems to be an intellectual misrepresentation.

 

That's a real dumb response, even by your standards.

 

Yes, very true. Try not to conflate doomsday movies with scientific consensus.

 

Investigating climate change’s ‘humidity paradox’

• There are two types of humidity: relative, or saturation, and specific, or the amount of water vapour in the air.
• Scientists have found specific humidity has increased, while relative humidity over many regions has declined.
• Changes in humidity have substantial knock-on impacts at both the global and local level, including on the strength and frequency of wildfires.
• The key reasons for this apparent paradox are two-fold: the Earth is warming and warmer air can hold more water vapour.

 

Causing a false fire alarm will get you jail time. That's a deterrent. It uses up resources paid for by tax dollars and burdens the fire department so its less able to respond to real emergencies. Jail is the minimal a false alarmist should get. I'd opt for public whipping.

International alarmists cause nations to deflect large portions of their economy and those resources are denied to more worthy causes.

False alarmists on global scales should be boiled in oil.

 

A very simple wet bulb thermometer lets you keep records of relative humidity. Run the experiment at home. Just be consistant, every day for the next decade.

 

My question was, 'why must fire departments respond to every alarm?' If your answer is

You need to dig deeper into why there are laws. You don't strike me as someone why just says, "I do it because the law says to." Yob, I know you question. It is your nature. Not all laws are made for our own good. Some laws take away freedoms in order to make administrating the law easier.

Fire departments must answer every call because it is their job to answer the alarms and they are not the ones to judge false alarms until they have evidence of a false alarm.

I find there is enough evidence to question the Climate Alarmists, but not enough to say, in a blanket statement, Climate Alarmists are all false.

It is prudent to take the statements seriously, even if you don't believe them. That doesn't mean we have to start dragging out the hoses. Just go out and look for smoke. How else will we know where to drive the hook n ladder?

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

I misunderstood your question because it was in response to only fools keep responding to false wolf wolf alarms time after time after time. Police stop responding to peeping tom calls from the same house when it's a repeat paranoia of some old lady.
If ALL the fire alarms in a district were false alarms, I bet fire chiefs would ignore that district.

All the doomsday predictions over past fifty years were false. We are still here, is the proof.

Only fools continue to be fooled by them.

 

A $7 trillion climate change warning to the stock market from its biggest shareholder

• BlackRock has outlined three key priorities it expects boards at companies to address: climate, diversity, and stakeholder capitalism
• Since July 2020, BlackRock supported eight out of nine environmental proposals brought by shareholders
• Resolutions that receive 30% of shareholder support often results in management meeting requests for change
• Votes where 50% of support was received, companies fully met expectations more than 90% of the time
• Votes from BlackRock and Vanguard can move a shareholder resolution from 10% to 40% in favor
  
• Ceres announced a consortium of investors managing $9 trillion in assets that have committed to investing along net zero carbon goals