Is the ocean broken?

Number of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes Has Doubled Over the Past 35 Years | National Science Foundation (2005)

The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years, according to a study by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The change occurred as global sea-surface temperatures have increased over the same period.....

"What we found was rather astonishing," said Georgia Tech's Webster. "In the 1970s, there was an average of about 10 Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year globally. Since 1990, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled, averaging 18 per year globally."

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Global Warming and Hurricanes | NOAA

• Sea level rise – which very likely has a substantial human contribution to the global mean observed rise according to IPCC AR5 – should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
  
• Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content. Modeling studies on average project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.
• Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size. Storm size responses to anthropogenic warming are uncertain.
• The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels will likely increase due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century. There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
List of Category 4 Atlantic hurricanes | Wikipedia

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
List of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes | Wikipedia
(List of hurricanes is not presented in as tidy a chart as the above for Cat 4 hurricanes, but the frequency is also increasing with time)

 

"Global Warming and Hurricanes|NOAA"
Just so you understand the nomenclature. The term "Global Warming" is specific to an anthropogenic cause.

How would this report have read if the human caused warming wasn't mentioned? If the article had not speculated or made assumptions of cause, but instead reported the facts and science around them?

A revised bullet point summery:
Earth's Warming and Hurricanes | NOAA

• Sea level rise – According to IPCC AR5 – should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
  
• Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to Earth's warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content. Modeling studies on average project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.
• Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius Earth warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
• The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels will likely increase due to Earth's warming over the 21st century. There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.

Some very interstitial and even consent statements, that don't make me think they are teeing to sell me something. It leads me to ask, what can be done about this trend?

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

Just because we may have gone over one tipping point doesn't mean that there aren't others that we still can avoid.

And just because we have gone over one tipping point doesn't mean there isn't value in slowing down the rate of "collapse."

Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against | Nature

As Climate Change Worsens, A Cascade of Tipping Points Looms | Yale Environment 360

Nine ‘tipping points’ that could be triggered by climate change | Carbon Brief

Tipping points in the climate system | Wikipedia

The tipping points at the heart of the climate crisis | The Guardian

 

You're late to the party. You seem to not understand that AGW is already scientifically well established. Don't be fooled by Yob, Hoyt and AII bleating like terror-stricken sheep.

That the frequency of Cat 4 & 5 hurricanes has increased is a matter of record (whether Yob realizes that or not). What we as a society want to know, and what science has been building models for, is to give us an idea of what to expect in the future? And, as the articles I've posted suggest, thanks to AGW we should expect severe storms to continue to increase in frequency.

 

Stopping climate change could cost less than fighting covid-19

 

Some pictures of Caladesi:

 

Tipping point schmipping point!
Be grateful for this big blue marble and enjoy life for there are no survivors.
Moving to Mars is suicide.

 

I belive in AGW.
The problems I see with the idea of it are the hype based on a political and social position. This causes both sides of the issue to commit grievous logical fallacies that have the effect of polarizing the opposition even more.

Those trying to promote awareness and therefore action around Global Warming, make the mistake of trying to bullying the doubters into following along. They fail to understand that some people have a harder time coming to the same conclusion they have and it makes them angry or disrespectful. They try pushing their agenda upon the unwilling instead of pursuing gentler avenues.

The doubters become defensive and dig in to their position and stop looking at the few facts that are in front of them and just see the inundation of hyperbole, misrepresentation, assumptions of facts and the social pressures that are trying to force them to comply.

It is not a helpful dynamic for leading real and useful change. What humans are doing to our world in the name of enterprise is unconscionable, at times, but no one is really addressing that issue of ethics directly, instead the AGW group uses authoritarian and mob-like swarm tactics to pound in their ideas. It is no wonder people like Yob resist. Freedom is far more important to some of us than a few extra feet of ocean.

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

I believe in GW. I also believe in GC. Temperature is not a constant. It warms. It cools.
AGW is a scam to destroy industry.
I for one am not ready to go back to prehistoric conditions of living.
Except or bananas. Gotta have bananas.

 

Day 8. Ain't it great?

 

One an a half category four hurricanes per year, up from one per year prior to 2000?
Do you understand what a significant number or change is?
Do you understand this data this small incremental fractional change, does not qualify as significant?

 

Some other producers: The last photo shows the manzanas which I will have to share with the neighbors. Invaded their airspace.

 

It's hugely significant!

 

Are you going to begin selling banana seeds Hoyt?

 

Nope