Global economic situation for liveaboard cruising yachties

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by masalai, Mar 22, 2009.

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  1. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    actually the market is still in complete turmoil possibly even more so since it started its artificial upward climb
    if you look at the graphs its the most bizarre stutter step of herkey jerkey crap you could have never imagined
    hard as hell to trade
    Im doing it
    but tough to trade
    my thing is to try and know when they are going to make some kind
    any kind of announcement
    and get out of the market in time to watch the fiasco happen as an outsider
    then wait a few days for things to settle down and develop a pattern again
    its a pain in the *** but its the only way to remain in a consistently positive exchange
    means I can only make about 1/3 of my normal trades and at a slightly lower probability of success
    still grinnin
    but is way harder than it needs to be what with these fools constantly sending the market into fits

    best
    B
     
  2. bntii
    Joined: Jun 2006
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    bntii Senior Member

    Pull up a 60min five week chart of the S&P. Very nice ladder up in channel with the prior highs offering support to the next tiers.

    If we get another step up the retracement will have support at 855.

    Everyone and their brother is waiting for it to sell off- me too- I have traded against it to my peril a few times expecting it to fall.

    If it bounces down off 855 sell it...
     
  3. masalai
    Joined: Oct 2007
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    Location: cruising, Australia

    masalai masalai

    Boston, I agree, I feel that soon many will realise it is a bear trap and get out, then the rot will set in... There is no fundamental basis or foundation for the exuberance, except "HYPE" and bucket loads of utter ********.... It is not even a pack of cards - just shadow and smoke from the remnants of the past castles of cards...

    When one looks at the realistically expected income from businesses MAKING something with gay abandon - fairies chasing farts hoping to find the anus of their love? - Qantas reported a significant reduction in expected revenue and the share price eventually went UP? (in a disparaging way it is sometimes referred to as quaint-arse)... so I could not resist the play on words above.... I would value a share on the dividend (fully franked) as a percentage of the price paid to purchase the share - nothing is worthy of that consideration - most seem variations on a ponzi....

    I also feel the market is being heavily manipulated by the big players and the small ones will get badly burnt soon.... The big fall is any-time soon????

    I am off to sell some gold - - - cya later
     
  4. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    B Ill try those lines and see what I come up with
    my long term look is a 15 chart that is ascending stutter step
    each rung is its own entity but string them together and the're climbing

    could plunge at any moment
    agreed

    mas

    nice visuals
    right up til then I kinda liked the little winged critters
     
  5. masalai
    Joined: Oct 2007
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    masalai masalai

    I was not referring to the winged variety of fables and childish innocence:D:D:D

    Dealing with pirates is becoming a boring exercise of "one-up-man-ship" or something equally ineffective - talk will not solve the problem - unless the idea is to talk them to death??? :D:D:D:D:D

    Boston, what lines, Is someone cutting some coke? - I thought that was the domain of the effluent Wall St Jocks
     
  6. masalai
    Joined: Oct 2007
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    Location: cruising, Australia

    masalai masalai

    Just have a look at the gold price in NY on 15 April up US$8 in 2 hours, then a fall of about US$11 in minutes after 8am NY time ... Not the sort of movement that would encourage confidence in the US markets - rather confirm suspicions of continuing false manipulation for or by the "big money controllers"

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldw.html and forex rates about that time? I dunnow? do you?

    Geees, Matt Simmons weekly chat on oils & gas is quite full of gloom - infrastructure, in all probability, will die before the oil runs out as 70% of the plant is rusted out, (I think he is referring to the storage facilities, refining facilities and delivery to retail outlets. Oil drilling rigs are stuffed and need to be replaced, skilled employees need 20 years instantly to train new people as nearly everyone is ready for the rocking chair in "gods waiting rooms".... - Don't panic, all will be OK just retire at 35 and donate your body to "Soylent Green" to be synthesised into food for those we leave behind :D:D:D:D:D
     
  7. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    no Mas we were referring to trend lines on a stock chart
    if you look at the S&P its a nightmare of stutter steps
    yes there is a general upward trend
    but it seems that every time the gov opens its mouth
    it spasms and lands in some new territory
    it kinda leaves the market wondering what would happen if the gov got out of the game what would happen
    would it be in a slow advance
    I think it would
    but
    with all this manipulation its a mess
    no one knows whats going to be announced next or how it will effect things
    and
    the market is hanging by the skin of its teeth
    ready to crash at any moment

    all that tarp money did was save a few bankers from imminent retirement to the Bahama's
    now they can wallow in gov money for a while longer
     
  8. bntii
    Joined: Jun 2006
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    bntii Senior Member

    fairy farts..

    Thanks for pointing that out Boston.. I seemed to have lost my sense of humor along the way of late.

    Today or tomorrow the trend should show its oats I believe.. a topping pattern & stall at the resistance of ~855?
    Out at the ten year chart it looks like one of the necessary deep jags on the 'bottom'.. I will call a retest to 730's or so without the shadows..
    Boston- just for fun- buy some NWD.. Chinese noodles :) trading on its own merit & not market bound. Sitting just over its support of .14

    Mas out of the corner of my eye I have followed gold vs dollar & some $ dance called a contango- best with the shoes tossed off.

    http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1490-contangos-gold-standard-.html?start=1

    http://spot-gold-price.org/tag/gold-contango/

    Just a glance by my untrained eye & it looks like a little bear rally on the down trend..

    I just picked up another 10k of my beat up auto parts stocks- probably will get burned.

    "I thought that was the domain of the effluent Wall St Jocks"

    Boston- is he insulting us???:D :D :p
     
  9. masalai
    Joined: Oct 2007
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    Location: cruising, Australia

    masalai masalai

    Nah bntii - unless you are uncle Bob B or one of those big boy high flyers on 7 figure bonuses for doing the dirty work for Bob Ben?

    Sometimes I like to wax poetical and bugger the truth, just because the words seem to go together...

    I am a very small player - mainly to hedge against uncertainty caused by the global downturn - what screws me is the up and down of gold and also the AU$ - usually a consequence of the US-FED playing domestic games but causing drastic adverse consequences in local (Australian) actual bullion prices - I do not lease or play paper....

    it has worked out OK for me to now but recently market manipulation screwed the normal timing cycles so... - I just have to hang in there for a bit longer :D:D:D - The bottom of the buy opportunities has not arrived in Australia yet... because of the exchange rate - AU$ strengthening from around US$0.63 to 0.73 (2Mar & 8Mar to 14Apr2009) with maybe the trend continuing to when AU$ was almost having parity to the US$, as on 15Jul08 last, when I bought some just under AU$900/oz now sold... - does that sound like I am confused? - well I am....
     
  10. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    no worries
    I also am a small fish in a big pond
    I got in this morning at 857.2 sds
    missed the low but got out at 853.0 for an ok .42% gain
    leverage later and Im ok with it
    not great not terrible and I made a little money
    wasnt sure what it was going t do so I stuck and now Im back in sds at 855.1
    thinking it will drop again
    time is 8:32
    so you can check up on my progress if you want
    best
    B
     
  11. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    8:53
    and hovering just under 850.0
    Im still in and hoping it will drop bellow this peak deviation trend line Ive got drawn on this fool thing
    if it will just break through 848.0 it should tumble from there
    at least according to what Im seeing
    could hit as low as 838.0 before the end of the day so I might stick with this one for a bit and see what happens
    set my out at 851.0 so that I will at least walk away with a small gain if Im wrong
     
  12. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    looks like I got out at 851.0 for .41 gain again
    although I missed the low again at 847.5 which would have been a nice fat gain had I hit it
    and the market bounced off the line I was hoping it would break through to end up back at peak resistance

    oh
    it bounced off that peak deviation trend line to rise all the way to the top off the deviation resistance trend then bounced off that and now is coming back down
    had I been paying attention instead of outside at the BRBQ I would have probably gone short again round 857.5 but no sense crying over spilled milk

    and that kids is my sorta typical trading day ( I usually swing back and forth between short and long trading but I didnt trust the market today to do anything but tank so I went short on each trade looking for that big drop )

    made two trades for a modest gain each ttl of .42 and .41 is .83 x leverage and 3.32% on the day

    best
    B

    still not even close to building the boat yet though
    I need about two more years at least to make it really all come together
     
  13. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    12:10
    just got in again at 859.0 sds
    its risky but its also at the resistance line so it should drop
    although its rising fast at the moment and Im not looking to good
    wish me luck on this one
    Im going to need it
     
  14. RHP
    Joined: Nov 2005
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    RHP Senior Member

    I had lunch with a NY broker yesterday, this is not a wind up.

    The word on the Street is that AIG needs a further $300 Billion to stay afloat for the next 6 months (only) and that Obama-bey is going to let it implode.

    On one hand poring money into AIG at least regulates the flow downwards, on the other let AIG go and banks would go bust, companies would default on debt, houses and cars would be repossessed and I imagine as a consequence of defaults squeezing liquidity and creating another credit squeeze, companies would go under for want of working capital. All this would cost a lot more than $300 billion globally but public opinion was against the initial $70 billion pay out, most of the money went offshore and the tykes still paid themselves fat bonuses so neither public opinion nor Obama-bey himself are up for a further $300 billion of public donations to repeat the trick to buy a 6 month stay of execution. All this whilst consuming king prawns and cold beer.

    The more you think it through the more freightening it looks however its open discussion within financial circles apparantly and they talk of it as being a done deal. Dollar stronger, stocks to retest 6500, commodities down, gold up. The talk also seems to be the Dow will test the lows at least one more time.

    Apart from that, lunch was superb.

    Anyone else heard this buzz?
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2009

  15. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    have not on this end
    but I havent looked at the scuttle but in a while

    oh
    had to happen eventually
    I got stopped out at a loss of .25% on my last trade
    guess I got overconfident
    first time in 9 trades so I guess I shouldn't be to upset over a 90% success rate over my last ten

    in my previous ten I had 3 bad trades were I got stopped out at .25% loss
    or 70% winners

    I think if anything untoward of that size happens we're definitely heading down to those 6500 lows again
     
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