Global economic situation for liveaboard cruising yachties

Knowing that further "intervention" will mean WW3?, - only a ******** would contemplate intervention there, as it would be a definite no-win-situation... as is Iraq & Afghanistan...

BACK to the economic plight - The most dangerous threat to USA is the 'wallstreet-mafia' - seems a pity to defame the Mafia but:?::?:


http://www.gata.org/node/7912 "Geithner says U.S. must live within its means ... someday" by force of necessity, most likely...
http://www.gata.org/node/7913 "Canada's BNN interviews Trace Mayer on gold suppression" http://watch.bnn.ca/the-close/october-2009/the-close-october-9-2009/#clip222383 - - - Highly recommended and forthright...
http://www.gata.org/node/7914 "So where's Yamashita's silver?" the last line is the one,,,
http://www.gata.org/node/7911 "Adrian Douglas: How much imaginary gold has been sold? Part 2" - - This is a must read as it is relevant to the general understanding of this economic trend (down)...

This talk of US$1300 gold by xmas is hogwash, - - as, if the US$ hits the wall, expect anything higher in US$ terms, - - other currencies:?::?: anything is possible it is just a matter of when people investing in "paper" realise that they have been foisted with something worth less than used toilet paper, - recognise the truth - that many countries are totally insolvent and desperately trying to out-do Zimbabwe's past efforts at hyperinflation... The problems have their roots in the various "Reserve Banks" who can only see the Keynesian solution of the Goldman Sachs "school of thought"... The politicians are either owned and controlled or not able to comprehend the situation or are easily bamboozled by gobbledegook from the economists (the witches of wallstreet)...

 

Now that was entertaining
My offering today is of my usual stuff
http://www.gata.org/node/7916 "Peter Brimelow: Gold bears gathering but bulls defiant" - - Year but... the gold is "priced" in US$ and the US$ value against the AU$ means that gold is the same price or less WTF:?::?::?:
http://www.gata.org/node/7917 "Morgan seems happy to hold everybody's (oversubscribed?) gold" - - - Is it because they have no real gold:?::?:
http://www.gata.org/node/7915 "Lawrence Williams: Is your gold really there?" - - - Sadly, in many cases NO:!::!: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=90927&sn=Detail

 

http://www.futures.tradingcharts.com/cotcharts/GD the absurd short positions on Gold by a couple of NY Commercial houses supporting the FED who supports them, seem to me to be deliberately trying to manipulate the market in a vain effort to bolster the "dead-dog" US$ and crush opposition to the fiat monetary system of global fraud and deception...

AU$ price of gold has continued a slow decline since, see http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?AUD the 5 year chart, and you will see, from Feb 06 - - except for a brief peak Oct 08 to March 09 - - under this onslaught - - - and the foreign-exchange "rise" in the AU$ against a basket of Australian trading countries cannot be the result of free and open trade... There are just too many things going on that do not add up and the differences cannot be reconciled by any measure except gross manipulation, fraud and deception by "the-money-controllers"...

**** conspiracies - every reasonable economic analysis, points to severe and significant problems... There is no fundamental strength to support such madness as seen around the globe - DJ cracking 10000 - - must have been a good batch of cocaine and opiates to addle their brains:?: The market is too fragile to justify such strength in the AU$ on the expectation of solid and consistent mineral sales of "Mine Australia" and agricultural Australia (We are having a major drought and there is no irrigation water:! and I am sure some dick-heads in Australia's banking sector have bought some "toxic debt", (as there are quite a few of the "inner-circle" Goldman operators over here), from USA:?: so still the questions:?::?::?: WTF:?:

Just for giggles and to give some the shits http://www.usdebtclock.org/ as it has been edited and looks better - - but the end result shows ABSOLUTE MADNESS - - hello you slaves...

 

http://financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2009/1019.html "Gold: What's REALLY Behind
the Record Rise, Bull or Bubble?" - - In this interesting analytical essay, please consider a third aspect as "Bu-llshit", as in market manipulation, - but is covered above so 3 aspects to consider...

http://financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2009/1019.html " THE GOLD BASIS IS DEAD ― LONG LIVE THE GOLD BASIS! " adds another aspect to the fraudulent behaviour earlier in US history
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/charnock/2009/1019.html "Mega Profits" - - :?: - - - hope is eternal... :?:
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wilson/2009/1019.html "What Does Adens’ $5,800 Gold Projection Mean for Gold and Silver Junior Equities?" - - I wish - - what a wonderful Xmas present:!:

http://financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2009/1016.html "Oil – Will it be priced in currencies other than the U.S. $?"
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2009/1019.html "Loss Of Wealth"
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/vermeulen/2009/1019.html "Precious Metals, Oil & Nat Gas Trend Charts"
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2009/1019.html "EIA Data Points to a Bullish Gas Market"

 

Gold may attain greater valuation due to it being preffered to other forms of tradable values in times of great uncertainty.
That it will rise in dollar price is a given since the dollar is devaluing and it seems the devaluation is only going to increase.
Ergo gold wil not nescessarilly make you rich but it almost certainly will keep you from losing all your wealth. There are other options too, it does not have to be gold.

Now for a brief synopsis of what lies in store for us - the real nitty gritty if you will; No conspiracies or weird beliefs just a cold clear analysis;

<<<
I recently attended and presented at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference in Denver.

The entire summary of everything I heard boils down to this: We are already past peak oil.
I'll wait for a minute while that sinks in.
(…)
While the implications are enormous, seemingly incalculable and therefore ungraspable, I truly believe that understanding the impact this will have on our economy will illuminate the future for those who take the time to internalize the details.
One of my central contributions centers on the idea that it is our monetary system itself that is out of step with reality.
>>>>
Read the rest here http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/exponential-money-finite-world/29744

We are facing some mathematical limits that are utterly inescapable.
I have been telling people about the inevitable failure of the "continuous growth" paradigm for many years already, and now it seems we have reached the beginning of unravelling of this system. People used to ignore me, or mutter that i' m mad or whatever, but over this next decade even the most "growth" brainwashed will come to accept the reality of what is happening.
The changes will be huge, and very difficult for most. However there will also be some positive changes in all this.

 

Thanks TTT I cannot fault your postulation, and others here also seem of the same mindset. I am preparing for such, in many ways, and am 'secretly' looking forward to the change in lifestyle...

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=253 "Speaking of Hyperinflation" All things and reading gives me the impression that an adjustment is forthcoming, BUT WHEN & HOW:?::?::?:

 

Yeah i had read that 40 % thing before.
The US is in deep....

Now i hope they succeed in completely bankrupting themselves before they lash out in desperation doing what they know how to do most-bomb, bomb, bomb. And what will that mean? Quite simply WWIII. The last desperate struggle for the last remaining resources.
Nightmarish stuff.

If on the other hand the US could just quietly slip off the world economic map we' ll be spared the wort of that scenario.

Who knows how it will all pan out.

 

Yeah, ONE BIG PUERTO RICO... but without American tourist dollars.

 

Mark, I have a feeling that the favella's around Rio will seem like paradise to many in USA who became victims of the wallstreet wipeout...

an Oops from GATA - """ Submitted by cpowell on 07:24PM ET Monday, October 19, 2009. Section: Daily Dispatches - - 10:21p ET Monday, October 19, 2009
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
A dispatch earlier today mistakenly asserted that JPMorganChase is custodian for the gold exchange-traded fund GLD. MorganChase is custodian for the gold exchange-traded fund SGOL and the silver exchange-traded fund SLV. The underlying point of the dispatch about fractional-reserve gold banking remains valid.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Daily Reckoning from Australia is rabid & full of spam, but sometinmes, it is interesting for its view on Oz...
""" From Dan Denning in St. Kilda:
--In today's Daily Reckoning, we take a look at what the hedge funds are buying (resource companies) and which corporate insiders are selling. And don't forget! It's GDP and industrial production week in China. What could that mean? Also, five time-bomb property investments to dump now.
--If you didn't catch yesterday's episode, you missed maybe the single most important piece of advice ever published in the Daily Reckoning: do nothing. Or, to paraphrase Nassim Taleb, "Negative advice is vastly more important than positive advice." Knowing what not to do in a dangerous environment promotes your survival. Improving your quality of life comes later, if you're still alive.
--Some examples? Don't touch a hot stove. Don't eat stuff that's been on the floor for longer than three seconds. Never start a land war on Asia. Don't sweat the petty things. Don't pet the sweaty things.
--Even some of the most important laws for the organisation of a free but ordered society are negative laws. "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances."
--In a leveraged financial world with insider trading, corruption, incompetent regulation, and industry advice not aligned with your own best interests, don't count on the "experts" to tell you what to do. But let's talk specifically about what not to do before what we talk about a smaller portfolio of assets that ARE worth risking your capital on.
--Don't buy the A-REITs. That's pretty simple. The group is talking itself up again, and the press is following suit. Granted with an average dividend yield of 8.1%, and after taking losses and write downs of nearly $40 billion last year, the sector is deceptively attractive. It doesn't mind saying so itself.
--"Australia stands out like a beacon because the yields here are much greater than other parts of the world," says AMP Capital Brookfield chief investment officer Kim Redding. He tells Bloomberg that, "If you like the Aussie dollar and you like yield, Australian LPTs would be a pretty good place to be."
--The logic of the trade is that the A-REITS have taken their losses (mostly on foreign commercial real estate assets) and recapitalised through debt and equity markets that are no longer so tight. But if you're long the A-REITS, you're also assuming there won't be any further losses on a portfolio of Australian real estate assets, and that there won't be any more funding problems for the sector.
--Those are two pretty big assumptions. And you know what they say about assumptions. Besides, if you wanted to speculate in the A-REITS, the time to buy them was 73% ago in March, when the S&P 200 A-REIT index was trading at 546. Now it's trading at 950. Over in the research and analysis wing of our new mansion/headquarters, Kris Sayce and Shae Smith are preparing a short report on "5 time bomb property investments to dump now." We'll keep you posted on the results.
--That's what not to do. But what about doing something? We'll get to that in second. Just one more quick point about what not to do.
--We often cop it from frustrated readers for being a sceptic and critic of fiscal stimulus and deficit spending, but with no constructive solutions to "all the problems" of our own. We are all talk and no action. All doubting Thomas and no economic Saviour. But that criticism is lame, and vastly discounts the innate resilience of free markets and free people to recover from financial decisions that did not work out.
--Left unmolested by know-it-all bureaucratic busy-bodies, free markets and entrepreneurs are remarkably resilient and self-adjusting. Businesses make investments and hire people and then reckon up a profit or a loss. Loss-making investments are ditched and products or services that actually serve customer's needs are modified and amplified.
--But when the government steps in to prop up loss-making enterprises (investment banks, money-centre banks, non-bank property lenders who can't self fund) it promotes and perpetuates bad investments. This ties up capital in ventures that don't generate jobs and misallocates society's resources (human and real). It's also a way for politicians to line the pockets of their friends and campaign contributors.
--When we say the government should "do nothing," we mean it should allow bad businesses to fail. It should not prop up investments at artificial values and directly support bad corporate managers and risk takers, even if they are good friends from the country club.
--If it allowed mistakes to be realised, the market and the economy would adjust quickly and get back to the business of business, rather than the business of maintaining a lousy status quo. And taxpayer money robbed from the capital markets would go, in the form of available savings, to small businesses in the trenches of the real economy creating real jobs.
--Now, on to doing something with your share portfolio. We'd like to draw your attention to the bidding war taking place for two separate Aussie resource firms, Polaris Metals (ASX: POL) and Rey Resources (ASX:REY). Mind you we haven't recommended them in Diggers and Drillers, nor are we recommending them here.
--But our point about them today is that both are the types of investments you might make if you were building a portfolio of risk assets where the low-probability, high-magnitude event (the Black Swan) that the firm is aiming for is massively positive, and not cataclysmically destructive.
--Polaris is mostly an iron ore play. Its chief project is the Yilgarn iron ore project in Western Australia. It reckons it has a 42 million tonne resource at an average ore grade of 58% iron. The bonus is that three of the five tenements have been drilled before and the entire project is close to both rail and port infrastructure, which significantly lowers the capital costs of getting it off the ground.
--Polaris finds itself in the middle of a bidding war between Singapore-based Lion-Asia resources and former D&D pick, Perth-based Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN...It's a former pick, by the way, because we sold it at a profit.) Both bids take into account that Polaris is an exploration play. But both bids obviously place a premium on high-grade, low-cost iron ore deposits in WA that are close to infrastructure and not already owned by BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue.
--The long-term insight here is that even though contract iron ore prices are headed down this year and perhaps next, Asian steel-makers (especially the smaller ones) are still looking to lock up long-term access to Aussie ore...and they're willing to pay for it. If you find the right exploration asset as a small-cap resource investor, you can ride the share up as the bidding war does its work.
--Rey Resources is sitting on another bulk commodity asset (thermal coal) that's facing a down-year in contract price terms but many years of higher prices, thanks to demand from India and China. Rey has been presented with duelling bids from Crosby Capital, which values Rey's coal tenements at around $35.5 million, and India-based Gujarat NRE Minerals.
--Rey owns exploration licenses on areas highly prospective for thermal coal. Thermal coal is coal burned in power plants to make electricity. By the way, China and India are going to burn Australian coal no matter what kind of Emissions Trading Scheme the government conjures up. Rey reckons it has a 500-million tonne coal resource. And that alone-a mineral deposit of a highly-valued commodity headed up in price over the long-term-is attracting interest.
--Details of both companies and all four bids aside, this is clearly the kind of high-risk worth investigating, and, from time to time, taking. Because these are exploration assets and because the value of the underlying commodities changes, valuing the mineral deposits and the companies is like shooting at a moving target. But the important investment point is that the target is moving up.
--Speaking of Chinese and Indian demand for Australian coal and iron ore, third quarter Chinese GDP figures come out this week. Look out! Will it be 9% again? Odds are it will be. China's official statisticians also release figures on retail sales and industrial production this week.
--Like all statistical releases from major economies, we are highly distrustful of official numbers. But the numbers do have an effect on market sentiment. And a bullish lead from China will contribute to the idea that the recovery (especially here in Australia) is taking hold and will sprint ahead in 2010. This could send the All Ords over 5,000 in short order.
--But a word of caution: the insiders are selling. Barron's reports that's insiders at Leucadia National (NYSE:LUK) $47 million worth of shares in the last month. Leucadia is a bit of a poor man's Berkshire Hathaway. It's a holding company run by professional investors with an eye for value. Barron's reports that chairmen Ian Cumming, who owns 10% of the company, sold about 850,000 shares for nearly $22 million on October 13th.
--There a variety of reasons insiders sell. Just because an insider is selling doesn't mean he's bearish on his own stock or that he thinks his shares are overvalued. But if they're optimistic and things are going well, how many business owners sell their equity?
--Some reader mail. Send your comments, questions and disparaging remarks to dr@dailyreckoning.com.au

Dear DR,
It would appear to me that gold's present run does not necessarily represent protection against a deflationary or inflationary trend, but the potential of systemic failure. The 'interference' in the market by banks, Illuminati, government, meddlers, short traders, long traders, cabal members.... are just moderating the move which is inevitable whether we have a deflationary collapse or an inflationary collapse the protection of thousands of years still stands.
The fun part is what after gold??
Thanks for a great publication.
Kindest regards
Larry

--Hi DR,
I've been reading your articles and comments over a long period of time and would like to congratulate you for providing an insight to the economic state of the world which is not being provided by the mainstream media.
A favour: I've been researching via the internet the (apparently corrupt and unconstitutional) US Federal Reserve which appears to be a cartel of private bankers working in cahoots with the US government. I have been trying to access similar information on the Australian Reserve bank. Could you possibly provide some information on exactly what the Reserve Bank of Australia is, who controls it and any similarities it has to the US Federal Reserve system.
Cheers and thanks to all your contributors for good quality information - keep up the good work.
Bob B.

--We'll look into Bob.

--Hello DR,
With reference to Chuck Butler's article of 15 Oct where he says that the Yuan has to be the most undervalued currency in the world, why not then just buy Yuan instead of pushing gold as an investment.
In fact, how would you buy or invest in Yuan. You could invest in the Chinese stock market, but how would you invest in their currency. You cannot go to an Aussie bank and buy a hungered grand worth of Yuan.
Thankyou
Regards
Graham D.

--Great question Graham. Investors have been trying to play the expected appreciation in the Yuan for ten years. But it hasn't happened yet. More on this subject this week. This is one of those major asset allocation decisions that, if you get right, can make you look like a genius."""

 

"...favella's around Rio"? We kinda have it already - it's called Chicago. And other naco locales. We avoid such places, when possible. If not, we fuel up, roll up our windows, lock our doors, and keep on driving. Al Capone and Barack Obama are about the only ones who had a car that could get them into our country. One died. The other, we are going to help find his home in 1111 days, 2 hours, 12 minutes.

 

Remember to similarly dispatch his superiors/controllers - the "wall-street-Mafia" with apologies to the Mafia if they felt their name was degraded by association , but fame has its drawbacks.... Poor 'Obummer' is only their puppet....

 

"Peak oil information" has been around here too, or are about to be, if the latter I'll try to attend. First time I came aware of this was one oil man saying he'd been in Saudi, at one of the large fields there, that were starting to produce water (reproduce, from waterinjections), and that field had been running since the 60'ties or something... A large oil field, as in ungraspable large, running on empty.

We're now producing from oil sand, and that tells us something of the cost/ availability. Implications are enormous any way we'd choose to look at this.

"Changes will be huge, and very difficult for most...".
Agree to the fact that changes will be huge, but most people will not be economically affected, as 20% of this earth's (or something like that...) are spending 80 % of the recources (that's us). The other 80% with the remaining 20% of the recourses will already have learnt to cope with a difficult situation like this....

So for that 80% well the situation will be "normal".... their children dying of the "normal" starvation/ difteria/ diarhea.....

oh.... maybe I'm a tiiiny bit cynical here... Sorry...

 

It is only up to Cubans in Cuba to decide that.

 

Knut, a well put explanation, 'cynical' does not compute in these times... Ideas and information are more relevant... and needed...

Your analogy is effective and succinct - a clear message...

Various opinions have attempted to mark the Peak Oil moment in time, - which is not really relevant, - somewhere between 1970 on to the 80's and it is mostly downhill and more expensive from now on...

The global recession/depression has eased demand and those who adapt quickest will be ahead of the game in the future - one hopes...