Calculating risk

Hi all,

Would really appreciate some help on this one. I'm not a numbers guy, basically maths or logic challenged but I would like to calculate the accident risk percentage per annum or per sea mile travelled by a fleet of 13 vessels.

My intention is to indicate risk percentages using historic data of collision, ME failures, groundings, accidents etc to demonstrate where improvements are required and applying improved management practises.

Thanks

Shaun

 

Shaun,

I'm hoping someone here can help you.

I've seen numbers but can't remember where.

You may have to dig on the Internet...

Question: Why do you ask?

Tom

 

Insurance companies have the data and software for that. It is how they determine insurance rates.

 

I've just recently taken on several projects with a hi speed ferry company (fleet of 13 plus more in the pipeline) that have several operational issues. A primary task that needs action is vessel/crew improvements to comply with ISM - SMS and to lift operating efficiencies.

I've got to induct Capt/crew skill training, improve technical support/predictive and planned maintenance and create a data base.

I created a matrix of Risk identification/mitigation and harm consequence and wanted to include actual risk percentages for the 16 critical harm factors that can affect the fleet.

That would provide the board with a measurement indicator of before (based on existing history data) and future performance and hopefully indicate improvements.

I know there are formulas used, car rental, truck fleets, oil/gas shipping fleets use the number crunching for prediction of risk.

As Gonza said insurance assessors have the software to analys the data, my 62 year old brain with general anasthestic retardation is struggling.

Shaun

 

Shaun

This has already been done by the MCA in the UK.
http://www.mcga.gov.uk/c4mca/mcga-research_report_504.pdf

 

Your company, has it acquired the CFI Pacificats from Vancouver?

 

Gonzo
Not really. It is a competitive market. The premium is set on what the next guy it prepared to offer minus a bit if you can stand it. They often make losses on the premiums received.

Shaun
Incident data is usually normalised. For example safety incidents in all industries are normalised to a base of either 1M manhours or 200,000 manhours depending on the industry. You will see the acronym LTFR (lost time frequency rate) meaning the number of lost time injuries per million manhours (or whatever baseline is applied). Normalised data allows you compare that stats as the fleet grows.

An interesting aside here is that the target death rate for building the Empire State Building was one person per floor - 102. In the wash up they came in well under target, only 5 died. Another example, in the early 1990's RSA lost a miner for every tonne of gold mined. These are atypical normailsed statistics but can be useful for comparison puposes.

So in terms of normalising to the ferry operation it could be a particular type of incident per mile travelled or per passenger mile or per berthing or whatever baseline makes sense.

HOWEVER what you are seeking here are LAGGING indicators. They are important but do not help a lot in going forward. You are looking at the "wash" rather than looking for the rocks ahead so to speak.

More modern approach to risk management relies on developing a good set of LEADING indicators and creating targets around these. The overall objective is zero incidents. The measures are typically around the attendance and participation in safety training, the participation in risk review workshops and quality of output, the participation and contribution to hazard analysis, the quality of incident reports including resolution of actions arising, the participation in and reports from safety and quality audits and so on.

The objective here is to develop an interdependent safety culture where each individual in the crew takes responsibility for their safety and safety of others.

On the maintenance side the lagging indicators look at things like MTBF, reliability, availability etc. The leading indicators look at things like proportion of preventive work to breakdown work, the proportion of planned task completed, the timeliness and effectiveness of condition monitoring, and so on. The objective here of course is zero mission failures.

I have seen some organisations that have got a long way down the path with interdependent culture. Some have many hundreds of employees on a site and have not had lost time injuries or notable loss incidents in years.

I have attached some items covering leading and lagging indicators and the Bradley Curve that might help you with these concepts.

So my suggestion is to set some meaningful normalised stats for the incidents but really focus your attention on the things that will foster the best culture and behavior with the crews.

Rick W

 

Shaun
Here is guideline related to other industries that might lead you through the process of determining what will be the best indicators and how you might implement the risk control system.

Rick W

 

Thanks Rick,

The fleet I have taken on is based in Singapore, operating in international waters and Indonesia. The vessels are in good condition, the crews reasonably competent and willing.

The work/operating conditions and practises differ to what we expect in Europe, US or Aussie.
The crew lack training/practise drills plus shore support has been very engineering focused with no attention to the vessel general condition/sea and voyage management.
My main objective will be increased training, regular drills, increased asset logistical support per vessel and getting SMS standards onboard and inhouse with regular cross reports and data base.

My work is normally senior project manager/engineer for superyachts, with this position I get fleet work plus spec superyacht, crew and OSV new builds and the chance to set up a complete new shipyard facility on Batam Is.

Ad Hoc, I thought those CATS might be the units that ended up in Abu Dhabi with MAR group, Swift Frigate 141 conversion project sponsors. If they are the hull were intended for services to the natural gulf islands offshore AD.

Thanks guys, your support is really appreciated.

 

Shaun
If those boats are HSC boats you shall be operating, then the crew and all needs to be "type rated". The company, can formulate its own 'system' which is then "type approved" by Flag State. In otherwords, the risk becomes the companies, as it is their responsibility to train correctly etc

 

The current fleet vessels fall outside the HSC reqmts due to year built but new vessels coming on line next year will 'rate'. My intention is to implement HSC regs and IMS approved safety system across all vessels, both vessel systems and crew to improve operational standards and awareness.

I'm a blue water yachtsman and believe very strongly in skipper/crew ability to evaluate and respond correctly to any emergency situ.

Nothing like a challenge or two to keep a bloke in the game

Shaun

 

If you want some real professional advice, right across the board, on the running and risk aspects, just PM me and i'll put you in contact with several excellent operators of HSC vessels i have dealt with.

 

Training/practice, effective communications and crew morale are key,

providing you've got the appropriate equipment.

Tom

 

I'm a brown-water tugboat deckie, and would like to chime in to say that this is easy to say and difficult to achieve, in practice. What tends to happen is that you end up with various teams looking to their leader for leadership all the time. This tends to be because the drills and evaluations get to be more important than actual ability to respond in an emergency. Skippers and mates get chewed on by the office enough, and they don't like being under a microscope any more than the next man. They tend to discourage actual innovation and real initiative.

As an example, one of the tugboats I worked on had an engine get into a runaway situation. I was the *only* deckhand who did anything more than stand there and wait for orders, and i was the one who *actually* got the engine shut down (by dumping a CO2 fire extinguisher down the intake stack and then wrapping it in canvas tarps until it ran out of air). And afterward, I was berated by not waiting for orders. WTF? Ya gonna wait until the flywheel spins itself clear off and out the side of the hull before you figure out what to do, or should we just go ahead and do what we can while we still have a choice in the matter?

On the reverse of the matter, there is a strong tendency to make "action" the same thing as "progress." They aren't. Scurrying around might look like you're actually doing something, but are you really? Or are you just scurrying around aimlessly?

 

eponodyne,

As a tow boat captain I say good on 'ya!

If nobody's doing anything and something needs to be done...

How did your captain feel about what you did?

I suspect okay or he would have told you to stop.

Tom