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arctic ice increases 60%

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by rasorinc, Sep 11, 2013.

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Petros said: ↑

so how come they do not consider that the carbon residence time might actually increase if atmospheric carbon increases? looks like they are assuming it will decrease...
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You did read the whole article, didn't you?

...As the world continues to warm, consequent events such as Boreal forest fires and mid-latitude droughts will release increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere -- pushing temperatures ever higher.

Initially, higher atmospheric CO2 will encourage plant growth as more CO2 stimulates photosynthesis, say researchers. But the impact of a warmer world through drought will start to negate this natural balance until it reaches a saturation point.

The modelling shows that global warming of four degrees will result in Earth's vegetation becoming "dominated" by negative impacts -- such as 'moisture stress', when plant cells have too little water -- on a global scale.

Carbon-filled vegetation 'sinks' will likely become saturated at this point, they say, flat-lining further absorption of atmospheric CO2. Without such major natural CO2 drains, atmospheric carbon will start to increase more rapidly -- driving further climate change...
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Petros said: ↑

...this also assumes that higher carbon means higher temperatures, yet the last few decades temp has not increased measurably yet carbon continues to rise.

It appears their analysis ignores actually observations. looks like a "guess" to me.
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You may wish to review post 251.

The planet may be warming much more – and much faster – in recent years than many experts have believed, according to a new study released this week by the U.K.-based Royal Meteorological Society.

Prepared by British and Canadian researchers, the study reports that the rise in global temperatures over the past 15 years has been significantly underestimated due to gaps in temperature data around the world, largely in Earth's polar regions...

Using satellite data to fill in those gaps, the study found that global surface temperatures have been warming 2 1/2 times faster over the past 16 years than previously believed, calling into dispute the widely-reported global warming "pause," the observed slowdown in the rise of global temperatures since 1997 despite steadily-increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

“When you do this technique, it turns out that this so-called slowdown or hiatus in the global surface temperature, it disappears," said Masters. "We don’t see any slowdown at all in the rate of global warming with this new estimate of the missing data in the polar regions..."
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Temperature data from the U.K. Met Office (thin lines) compared to a global reconstruction (thick lines). The straight red lines indicate the trend over the past 16 years, while the background image illustrates the coverage of the Met Office data, with colors indicating geographical temperature trends. The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the planet.

ImaginaryNumber, Dec 20, 2013

#316

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pdwiley Senior Member

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25383373

Note: Area *and* volume up.

Proof of nothing, but interesting.

As for glacial retreat, I've just finished reading a book by Longstaff who was in Greenland and the Himalaya region in the late 1800s and up to WW2.

Guess what - many, many glaciers were retreating. Similar observations by Tilman & Shipton both in the northern hemisphere and also Patagonian regions.

Once again, proof of nothing, but interesting.

PDW

pdwiley, Dec 22, 2013

#317

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

It Doesn’t Take Much Global Warming To Drive Global Water Scarcity Way Up | THINKPROGRESS.ORG

According to new modeling by German researchers, global warming of just 2.7 degrees Celsius would inflict a “severe decrease in water resources” on 15 percent of the global population.

What’s especially significant is that most of the damage gets done by relatively low amounts of global warming. The researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who carried out the modeling, chose as their central framework the RCP8.5 — a future scenario of global warming laid out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which assumes a business-as-usual path for carbon emissions. The projections of future population growth relied on the middle-of-road SSP2 scenario. When the researchers looked for the greatest overlap between the results, they found that 1°C to 2°C of global warming drove up absolute water scarcity around the world by 40 percent. That was due to climate change alone, before the effect of population growth was factored in. At 3°C of warming, climate change’s effect falls to just 25 percent of the increase in scarcity, as population growth takes over. But the severe impacts continued well past 2°C of warming...

The areas that were hardest-hit under the modeling were the Mediterranean, the Middle East, the southern United States, and southern China. As climate change involves a lot of regional variability, southern India, western China, and parts of eastern Africa actually saw water availability go up. It’s just that, as the headline numbers show, the total change is a big net negative.

Without drastic corrective action, and soon, the world is actually on track to blow past the 2°C (3.6°F) of global warming scientists view as the threshold beyond which climate change becomes truly catastrophic. Water shortages are a big part of that destructive effect. Shortages are already projected for major American river basins, they threaten major urban populations around the world. Water scarcity bodes ill for humanity’s future energy prospects, given the centrality of water in most fossil fuel power generation...
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ImaginaryNumber, Dec 22, 2013

#318

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Scientific expedition discovers vast water store beneath Greenland's ice | GMA NEWS

A vast store of water equivalent in area to Ireland lies beneath Greenland's icesheet, and it may provide answers to one of the big riddles of climate change, scientists reported on Sunday.

In 2011, US scientists crossed the southern Greenland icesheet on an expedition to drill ice cores, a benchmark of annual snowfall. They were stunned when they drilled into a layer of compressed snow called firn -- for instead of piercing an icy sponge at a depth of 10 meters (33 feet) as expected, they encountered liquid water and ice granules instead...

It works similarly to an aquifer below the ground, which is a spongy rock that holds water in its air spaces. In this case, the air spaces in the firn are occupied by water, resulting in something akin to the crushed-ice soft drink called a snow cone. "The surprising fact is the juice in this snow cone never freezes, even in the dark Greenland winter," said Rick Forster, a professor of geography at the University of Utah, who led the mission...

The secret store appears to have been around for some time and was not initiated by man-made global warming, the scientists believe...

The discovery of a year-round sub-glacial reservoir sweeps away computer simulations that have tried to calculate this runoff...

"It might conserve the meltwater flow and thus help slow down the effects of climate change," said Forster.

"But it may also have the opposite effect, providing lubrication to moving glaciers and exacerbating ice velocity and (iceberg) calving, increasing the mass of ice loss to the global ocean."
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ImaginaryNumber, Dec 22, 2013

#319

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Take precautions against frostbite.

hoytedow, Dec 22, 2013

#320

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

The Entire IPCC Report in 19 Illustrated Haiku | SIGHTLINE DAILY

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE 2013: HAIKU

This work is my attempt to distill into Haiku: “The summary for Policymakers of the Working Group 1 Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: The result is solely my own creation, so any views or opinions expressed herein are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Government, the IPCC, or any other entity.
Gregory C. Johnson

...How did it come about? Housebound with a rotten cold one recent weekend, Greg Johnson found himself paring his key takeaways from the IPCC report into haiku. He finds that the constraints of the form focus his thoughts (he told me he posts exclusively in haiku on Facebook), and described the process as a sort of meditation. He never intended to share these “IPCC” poems.

Johnson’s daughter, an artist, inspired him to try his hand at watercolors. On a whim he illustrated each haiku and shared the results with family and a few friends...

Condensing to this degree is not how scientists typically operate. But, as Johnson proves, scientists can also be poets. Still, he’s is quick to caution that this is his own unofficial artistic interpretation and that it omits all the quantitative details and the IPCC’s scientific qualifications...
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plus 15 more

ImaginaryNumber, Dec 23, 2013

#321

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Merry Christmas to the purveyors of alarmist bilge. Merry Christmas.

hoytedow, Dec 23, 2013

#322

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SamSam Senior Member

Ho Ho Ho. Since we're invoking Crīstesmæsse in our Holiday digs...

Scientific warnings are alarmist bilge, but faith based threats of eternal Hell and damnation, the wrath of God, End Times and Armageddon are not?

Hmm.

Well, just for that..Happy Holidays!

(This year I'm so hoping to get the epic documentary "War On Christmas-The Movie")

.

SamSam, Dec 23, 2013

#323

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Ho Ho Ho - pe we don't freeze to death.

hoytedow, Dec 23, 2013

#324

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Merry Christmas, Hoyt.

ImaginaryNumber, Dec 25, 2013

#325

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

hoytedow said: ↑

Ho Ho Ho - pe we don't freeze to death.
Click to expand...

ImaginaryNumber, Dec 29, 2013

#326

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Study Details Dark Money Flowing to Climate Science Denial | CROOKS AND LIARS

Drexel University sociologist Robert Brulle's long-awaited, peer-reviewed study "Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding and the creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations" was published Dec. 20 in the journal Climatic Change.

The Drexel press release, "Not Just the Koch Brothers: New Drexel Study Reveals Funders Behind the Climate Change Denial Effort" gives a quick introduction to the findings:

'This study marks the first peer-reviewed, comprehensive analysis ever conducted of the sources of funding that maintain the denial effort.

Through an analysis of the financial structure of the organizations that constitute the core of the countermovement and their sources of monetary support, Brulle found that, while the largest and most consistent funders behind the countermovement are a number of well-known conservative foundations, the majority of donations are 'dark money,' or concealed funding."

"Funding has shifted to pass through untraceable sources. Coinciding with the decline in traceable funding, the amount of funding given to denial organizations by the Donors Trust has risen dramatically. Donors Trust is a donor-directed foundation whose funders cannot be traced. This one foundation now provides about 25% of all traceable foundation funding used by organizations engaged in promoting systematic denial of climate change."

Of course, many recipients engage in numerous other actiivities [sic] outside the climate issue, and Brulle's study did not and could not address the percentage spent on climate change. The clear message is that tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organizations that spread climate denial get huge sums of dark money, and we really do not yet know exactly how they spend it...

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ImaginaryNumber, Dec 29, 2013

#327

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Spared Winter Freeze, Florida’s Mangroves Are Marching North | NEW YORK TIMES

Much of the Florida shoreline was once too cold for the tropical trees called mangroves, but the plants are now spreading northward at a rapid clip, scientists reported Monday. That finding is the latest indication that global warming, though still in its early stages, is already leading to ecological changes so large they can be seen from space.

Along a 50-mile stretch of the central Florida coast south of St. Augustine, the amount of mangrove forest doubled between 1984 and 2011, the scientists found after analyzing satellite images. They said the hard winter freezes that once kept mangroves in check had essentially disappeared in that region, allowing the plants to displace marsh grasses that are more tolerant of cold weather...

In both the beetle and mangrove cases, scientists have found that it is not the small rise in average temperatures that matters, nor the increase in heat waves. Rather, it is the disappearance of bitter winter nights that once controlled the growth of cold-sensitive organisms...

So a climatic change that allows mangroves to thrive in new areas might well be seen as a happy development. Yet as they spread in Florida and elsewhere, the mangroves are displacing salt marshes, which are also ecologically valuable and also under threat from development. Their ecology is markedly different from that of mangroves, raising new questions about what will be lost if marsh grasses are killed off by the invading trees...
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ImaginaryNumber, Dec 30, 2013

#328

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Petros Senior Member

so has anyone done a study of the souses of funding for the pro-anthropogenic global warming studies? What if anything does that tell us?

Does somehow the source of funding make the results unscientific? It seems to me that this kind of "study" has nothing to do with science but rather is attempting to smear with implied fraudulent science only because of who funds it. This question GOES BOTH WAYS.

So where does studies that do not fit the scientific orthodoxy of university grants get their research money? It is very common in all branches of science to have the major source of funding decide they will not fund any studies that are opposed to their own ideas of what the study outcome should be. This is no different.

Petros, Dec 30, 2013

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Petros Senior Member

A research vessel goes down to Antarctica to prove it is melting due to global warming, and instead gets stuck in the ice, and so far, it could not be freeded from the ice.

"
'Stuck in our own experiment': Leader of trapped team insists polar ice is melting"

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013...er-trapped-team-insists-polar-ice-is-melting/

The leader of a scientific expedition whose ship remains stranded in Antarctic ice says the team, which set out to prove climate change, is "stuck in our own experiment."

But Chris Turney, a professor of climate change at Australia’s University of New South Wales, said it was “silly” to suggest he and 73 others aboard the MV Akademic Shokalskiy were trapped in ice they’d sought to prove had melted. He remained adamant that sea ice is melting, even as the boat remained trapped in frozen seas.

Petros, Dec 30, 2013

#330

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