MH370 (cont.)

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by ImaginaryNumber, Jul 30, 2015.

  1. Mr Efficiency
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    Mr Efficiency Senior Member

    I'd say many shoulders were shrugged. No terns stoned.
     
  2. fallguy
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    fallguy Senior Member

    The analysis would be highly complex done right. First of all, all the pieces must intersect. That is a given. Then the endpoints are givens. After that current and winds and piece dimensions and windage and weight are all variables. But they are all variables acting differently.

    All I saw were drift analyses that led to various points for each piece, which doesn't meet the first given fact.

    I would say it would take a team of two-six a year to do it right. And this assumed meterologic and current data even exists.

    And then, it would still be an area the size of Maryland.

    And then, can we even differentiate litter from other bottom 3-5 miles down? If he dove in at high speed; the pieces would be pretty small. I would be worried after a few years; even the litter would become unremarkable.
     
  3. Mr Efficiency
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    Mr Efficiency Senior Member

    There is no way windage could be accurately calculated, it would likely have changed over time, as whatever was keeping it afloat ( foam etc) became more waterlogged. Even the progress through the water, if moved by wind, would change with marine growth. If these slight changes were enough to disperse the pieces, the different conditions then encountered by each piece, further compounds matters. I would be amazed if a study like that could get any kind of accurate, gauge, or at least one more accurate than given by the telemetry data already in hand.
     
  4. fallguy
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    fallguy Senior Member

    My buddy says a soft landing would be less debris and harder to find, so much for the theory of a million pieces
     
  5. Barry
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    Barry Senior Member

    If the plane just ran out of fuel, the approximate contact with water speed would be about 120 mph. Give or take.

    So instead of mathematical analysis with assumptions of all kinds being made, here is an option. Replicate the pieces that have washed up in various places, perhaps cannibalize many of the
    not ever to fly again planes in Arizona, fit them with transponders and drop them in the water at an estimated location. Same time of year. See where they end up. Certainly storms etc would play a part but might possibly omit some of the variables, various floating drag rates etc.

    And when they are tracked and do not end up in the current found locations, set them out again, adjusting to where the first experimental pieces ended up. Eventually, there MAY be a spot
    that presents itself that the various sized pieces with different floating, windage, drag characteristics reproduces where the pieces were found. .
     
  6. ImaginaryNumber
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    ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

    They sort of, kind of, already did this.

    MH370: New analysis reiterates plane's likely location
     
  7. fallguy
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    fallguy Senior Member

    They believe the plane dove in at high speed without trying to land.

    (So much for my friend's guess)

    MH370 'made rapid descent' before crash https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37843752
     
  8. ImaginaryNumber
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    ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

    What Really Happened to Malaysia’s Missing Airplane | The Atlantic

    Five years ago, the flight vanished into the Indian Ocean. Officials on land know more about why than they dare to say.....
    [final paragraphs]
    That aside, finding the wreckage and the two black boxes may accomplish little. The cockpit voice recorder is a self-erasing two-hour loop, and is likely to contain only the sounds of the final alarms going off, unless whoever was at the controls was still alive and in a mood to provide explanations for posterity. The other black box, the flight-data recorder, will provide information about the functioning of the airplane throughout the entire flight, but it will not reveal any relevant system failure, because no such failure can explain what occurred. At best it will answer some relatively unimportant questions, such as when exactly the airplane was depressurized and how long it remained so, or how exactly the satellite box was powered down and then powered back up. The denizens of the internet would be obsessed, but that is hardly an event to look forward to.

    The important answers probably don’t lie in the ocean but on land, in Malaysia. That should be the focus moving forward. Unless they are as incompetent as the air force and air traffic control, the Malaysian police know more than they have dared to say. The riddle may not be deep. That is the frustration here. The answers may well lie close at hand, but they are more difficult to retrieve than any black box.
     
  9. philSweet
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    philSweet Senior Member

    Mentor Pilot recaps MH370 after ten years. This is his first published video on the subject.
     

  10. fallguy
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    fallguy Senior Member

    Pretty good video that more or less pins the culprit without pinning the culprit.
     
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