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arctic ice increases 60%

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by rasorinc, Sep 11, 2013.

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Climate change models underestimate likely temperature rise, report shows | THE GUARDIAN

The Earth’s climate is far more sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions than previously thought, heightening the likelihood of a 4C temperature rise by 2100, new Australian-led research of cloud systems has found.

The study, published in Nature, provides new understanding on the role of cloud formation in climate sensitivity – one of the key uncertainties in predictions of climate change...

In reality, the study found, water vapour is distributed to different heights in the atmosphere, causing fewer clouds to form as the climate warms.

In turn, this increases the amount of sunlight entering the atmosphere, making the level of warming far more sensitive to heat-trapping gases such as CO2.

As a result, the world can expect a temperature increase of “at least” 4C by 2100 if, as predicted, there is a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. This could then rise by more than 8C by 2200.

This is beyond the lower range of predictions and double the 2C limit, compared with pre-industrial times, agreed by countries to prevent the impact of runaway climate change. By comparison, average temperatures have risen 0.8C over the past 100 years...
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ImaginaryNumber, Dec 31, 2013

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Griffp1 Junior Member

Long Staff

pdwiley said: ↑

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25383373

Note: Area *and* volume up.

Proof of nothing, but interesting.

As for glacial retreat, I've just finished reading a book by Longstaff who was in Greenland and the Himalaya region in the late 1800s and up to WW2.

Guess what - many, many glaciers were retreating. Similar observations by Tilman & Shipton both in the northern hemisphere and also Patagonian regions.

Once again, proof of nothing, but interesting.

PDW
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What was the book

Griffp1, Jan 1, 2014

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Griffp1 said: ↑

What was the book
Click to expand...

Griffp1, welcome to BD.net.

The book pdwiley referenced may be This my Voyage (1950).

http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/printable/34594
see also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_George_Longstaff

Tom Longstaff appears to have been a very interesting person.

ImaginaryNumber, Jan 1, 2014

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pdwiley Senior Member

ImaginaryNumber said: ↑

Griffp1, welcome to BD.net.

The book pdwiley referenced may be This my Voyage (1950).

http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/printable/34594
see also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_George_Longstaff

Tom Longstaff appears to have been a very interesting person.
Click to expand...

Correct, that was the book.

I have a moderate collection of Arctic, Antarctic, sailing and mountaineering books and am always looking for more. It's interesting what observations one finds in them, from geography to sociology.

PDW

pdwiley, Jan 2, 2014

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Petros Senior Member

La Niña slowing Antarctic melt, suggests study

The lower sea-surface temperatures brought by La Niña could be slowing the rate at which one of Antarctica's largest glaciers is melting, say researchers.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2014/0102/La-Nina-slowing-Antarctic-melt-suggests-study

Petros, Jan 2, 2014

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Climate Change will Reduce Population of Many Marine Organisms by 2100, Researchers Say | NATURE WORLD NEWS

According to estimates by a team of researchers led by National Oceanography Center scientists, the number of marine creatures in North Atlantic will decrease by about 38 percent. Around the world, at least five percent of these organisms will vanish due to climate changes.

The team has also said that creatures living in the remotest regions of the ocean will also be affected by changes in the environment.

Decrease in the number of marine organisms will directly hit fisheries, researchers added...

"We were expecting some negative changes around the world, but the extent of changes, particularly in the North Atlantic, were staggering. Globally we are talking about losses of marine life weighing more than every person on the planet put together," Jones said in a news release.

The study is published in the journal Global Change Biology.
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ImaginaryNumber, Jan 4, 2014

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Grey Ghost Senior Member

Petros said: ↑

A research vessel goes down to Antarctica to prove it is melting due to global warming, and instead gets stuck in the ice, and so far, it could not be freeded from the ice.

"
'Stuck in our own experiment': Leader of trapped team insists polar ice is melting"

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013...er-trapped-team-insists-polar-ice-is-melting/

The leader of a scientific expedition whose ship remains stranded in Antarctic ice says the team, which set out to prove climate change, is "stuck in our own experiment."

But Chris Turney, a professor of climate change at Australia’s University of New South Wales, said it was “silly” to suggest he and 73 others aboard the MV Akademic Shokalskiy were trapped in ice they’d sought to prove had melted. He remained adamant that sea ice is melting, even as the boat remained trapped in frozen seas.
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And then the icebreakers got stuck!

http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/04/world/antarctica-ships-stuck/

"At the request of the Australian, Russian and Chinese governments, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star is stepping up to help break up ice off Antarctica that has ensnared a pair of ships. Now the icebreaker is retooling to help the Russian ship Akademik Shokalskiy and China's Xue Long due to "sufficient concern that the vessels may not be able to free themselves from the ice," the Coast Guard said Saturday"

Grey Ghost, Jan 5, 2014

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member
Global Climate Analysis - November 2013 | NOAA

Global Highlights

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F).

The global land surface temperature was 1.43°C (2.57°F) above the 20th century average of 5.9°C (42.6°F), the second highest for November on record, behind 2010. For the global oceans, the November average sea surface temperature was 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), tying with 2009 as the third highest for November.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the September–November period was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F), the second warmest such period on record, behind only 2005.

The September–November worldwide land surface temperature was 1.08°C (1.94°F) above the 20th century average, the third warmest such period on record. The global ocean surface temperature for the same period was 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the 20th century average, tying with 2009 and 2012 as the fourth warmest September–November on record.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the year-to-date (January–November) was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), tying with 2002 as the fourth warmest such period on record.

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ImaginaryNumber, Jan 6, 2014

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

hoytedow, Jan 6, 2014

#339

Baltic Bandit Previous Member

Grey Ghost said: ↑

And then the icebreakers got stuck!

http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/04/world/antarctica-ships-stuck/

"At the request of the Australian, Russian and Chinese governments, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star is stepping up to help break up ice off Antarctica that has ensnared a pair of ships. Now the icebreaker is retooling to help the Russian ship Akademik Shokalskiy and China's Xue Long due to "sufficient concern that the vessels may not be able to free themselves from the ice," the Coast Guard said Saturday"
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Proving?? Ships are fairly lightweight when it comes to polar ice. And when you have large amounts of continental ice melt, the surface layer of the ocean will freeze faster since the salt is more diluted.... Not sure what the point is here?

Baltic Bandit, Jan 6, 2014

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Baltic Bandit said: ↑

Proving?? Ships are fairly lightweight when it comes to polar ice. And when you have large amounts of continental ice melt, the surface layer of the ocean will freeze faster since the salt is more diluted.... Not sure what the point is here?
Click to expand...

Do you have any measurements of the salt levels then and now? I wager there is no difference.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawater

"Although the vast majority of seawater has a salinity of between 3.1% and 3.8%, seawater is not uniformly saline throughout the world. Where mixing occurs with fresh water runoff from river mouths or near melting glaciers, seawater can be substantially less saline. The most saline open sea is the Red Sea, where high rates of evaporation, low precipitation and river inflow, and confined circulation result in unusually salty water. The salinity in isolated bodies of water (for example, the Dead Sea) can be considerably greater still. (Diagram at lower right shows comparison in parts per thousand)"

hoytedow, Jan 7, 2014

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ImaginaryNumber Imaginary Member

Frigid air from the North Pole: What's this polar vortex? | CNN

...What is a polar vortex? What distinguishes it?
The polar vortex, as it sounds, is circulation of strong, upper-level winds that normally surround the northern pole in a counterclockwise direction -- a polar low-pressure system. These winds tend to keep the bitter cold air locked in the Arctic regions of the Northern Hemisphere. It is not a single storm. On occasion, this vortex can become distorted and dip much farther south than you would normally find it, allowing cold air to spill southward.

How frequently does this polar vortex distortion occur?
The upper-level winds that make up the polar vortex change in intensity from time to time. When those winds decrease significantly, it can allow the vortex to become distorted, and the result is a jet stream that plunges deep into southern latitudes, bringing the cold, dense Arctic air spilling down with it. This oscillation is known as the Arctic Oscillation and it can switch from a positive phase to negative phase a few times per year. This oscillation -- namely the negative phase where the polar winds are weaker -- tends to lead to major cold air outbreaks in one or more regions of the planet...

Is it a side effect of global warming and should we expect more events like this?
This is a hotly researched topic. In short, yes, it could be. It seems counterintuitive that global warming could cause significant cold snaps like this one, but some research shows that it could. We know that different types of extreme weather can result from the overall warming of the planet, melting of the Arctic Sea ice, etc. This includes extreme distortions of the jet stream, which can cause heat waves in summer and cold snaps in winter.

Parts of Western Europe have been battered by the worst storms for two decades during the past week -- are they related to the weather system in the United States?
They are related in a sense, but I wouldn't say "caused by." The storms in Europe are the result of a persistent pattern that has seen the jet stream parked near the United Kingdom and Ireland, which has brought a train of storm systems over the British Isles. This is the same jet stream, of course, that has plunged deep into the southern portions of the United States. So, the jet stream has been "stuck" in a position that is allowing cold Arctic air to spill into much of the United States and Canada. But it is in a position that is bringing warmer, moist air from the Atlantic over Northwest Europe, resulting in the stormy conditions.
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ImaginaryNumber, Jan 7, 2014

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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

Ductless wonder.

hoytedow, Jan 7, 2014

#343

Baltic Bandit Previous Member

hoytedow said: ↑

Do you have any measurements of the salt levels then and now? I wager there is no difference.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawater

"Although the vast majority of seawater has a salinity of between 3.1% and 3.8%, seawater is not uniformly saline throughout the world. Where mixing occurs with fresh water runoff from river mouths or near melting glaciers, seawater can be substantially less saline. The most saline open sea is the Red Sea, where high rates of evaporation, low precipitation and river inflow, and confined circulation result in unusually salty water. The salinity in isolated bodies of water (for example, the Dead Sea) can be considerably greater still. (Diagram at lower right shows comparison in parts per thousand)"

Click to expand...

hmm - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1 indicates salinity changes that do enhance seaice formation in polar regions and salinity increases in Evap regions

And this shows specific salinity declines in Ross Ice Shelf regions http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3284.1

Baltic Bandit, Jan 7, 2014

#344
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hoytedow Carbon Based Life Form

When you freeze saline water it drives most of the salt out.

hoytedow, Jan 7, 2014

#345

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