Maybe Massalai was right after all

3500%?

Assuming a buy and hold strategy,the last time gold was at ~$50 was around 40 years ago.

 

So, buying at $350 and theoretically selling at 1570 is a gain of some 4.485 times the initial value... which should read 448% sorry my sad at mathematics...

AU$ gold was down $3.31 yesterday. But, at last count, it's still up $180.95 for the year. Gold - Getting Smashed But Still Up 12.9% see graphic for 2011 below http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20111216/a-more-profitable-investment-than-cheap-gold.html

 

(not yet available on their website but permission has been granted to copy a portion - the rest will be available here later... http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/
"The Golden Pyramid - - - Friday, 16 December 2011 - - - From Greg Canavan in Sydney:
-- Yesterday we discussed gold and the shadow banking system. Today we'll explain how it all fits together and what it means for the markets and your investments.
-- The world today is so inter-connected that if you try to explain things in isolation it becomes meaningless. You have to look at everything to see how the pieces fit together.
-- US banks fund European banks and vice versa. And both of these banking systems help fund the assets of the Aussie banks. Which is why APRA, Australia's banking regulator, has asked the banks to do their own stress test - modelling a sharp rise in unemployment and collapse in the Aussie property market.
-- The problem with self-stress testing is that the results are always too hopeful. It's easy enough to assume a certain fall in property prices or a few percentage points rise in the unemployment rate. But the banks stress test in isolation. What about counterparty risk?
-- Prior to the collapse of the US property market, the US banks all thought they would pull through OK. They didn't take into account the collapse of a counterparty.
-- This is a crucial point to consider. We reckon counterparty risk could well be in for the phrase of the year in 2012.
-- What does it mean?

-- Here's an example. In the US, banks that had excessive exposure to residential mortgages hedged this risk by buying insurance with AIG. In their stress tests, they thought they were safe. They thought AIG would cover their losses if the housing market went south. AIG went bankrupt.
-- We're pretty sure that scenario wasn't modelled. AIG was a counterparty to the banks. There is always a risk the counterparty won't pay out on the insurance claim. That's what counterparty risk means.
-- The point is you can't really conduct an accurate stress test in such an interconnected world. You cannot accurately model counterparty risk. These stress tests are an attempt to build confidence in an inherently fragile industry. Confidence is the backbone of the banking system. It's a con game.
-- An examination of the shadow banking system shows you just how fragile banking is. Weekend DR editor Nick Hubble sent this IMF working paper through yesterday. It explains how the shadow banking system works. If you have the time and inclination, it makes for fascinating - and scary - reading. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11289.pdf is critical to the quoted extract here sent to me by email

-- We'll sum up the best points here. -- Firstly, the IMF paper points out the role of traditional banking/finance is to transform the short-term savings of households into longer-term assets. The banks do this via lending the money for mortgages. Or it is done via you investing with an asset manager to buy bonds or shares. Either way, your cash is 'transformed' into a longer-term security.
-- The IMF paper then points out the role of shadow banks. (Which include hedge funds, exchange traded funds, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, pension funds, insurance companies and managed funds.) And that role is to transform these longer-term assets back into shorter-term liquid investments.
-- The mechanics of this process are complex. But in effect, the shadow banking system simply monetises long-term securities. This creates liquidity, which creates more demand for longer-term securities like shares and bonds. "

 

Like I said earlier mas,

And the fact that you now feel the need to post the latest spruik in pretty colours confirms this Bias.

 

mass bein right,, this should be in the boat joke thread hehe ; } luv ya mass

 

Yes I do post stuff from all emails I receive, where a reasoned case is presented... I do not use those words you wrongly attribute to me... In context I guess they refer to "real-estate promoters"... or general share-market product advertising people from a brief quote (PortPhillipPublishing)... It usually is my custom to colour in purple, direct and extended quotes to avoid confusion as to authorship especially where I insert my own comment (as in above) - at least that is understood in an unusually snide manner...

I do not deny any bias, as I have mentioned in other posts on this thread... What I believe represents actuality I will post and link/quote... My views are my views at the present and I am open to better positioned information and analysis... Sometimes I will frivolously link something I feel may be pertinent, quirky, "a stir," or, of interest, (but not necessarily to me)... By all means debate the content... Demeaning the person does nothing to the understanding of a complex topic... I would like to learn and have others opinion supported by reasonable and reasoned research and analysis (or even copy where permitted) of extracts of others reasoned opinion... As I repeat, it is part of sharing and learning on an open forum... This is an international forum and I only get to see part of the global story... Some is denied me because it is by paid subscription or in the case of some newspapers "pay to view"...

I do not often link to or post or comment on stuff I feel may be "rabid left" and I find the far right equally banal in many cases...

One does not necessarily have to accept every word of the opinion of others, but it is polite to endeavour to accept those views, read them before being strongly critical, and observe that such is not necessarily ones own view, and present a well reasoned alternative or explanation in case the view expressed was misunderstood....

If any offence is taken I apologise... We all may need to develop a slightly "thicker skin"...

 

Holey moley - Yep it is a joke thread but not boat (well mostly anything but, as it is in the dungeon)...

Hi Jim,

good to read from you...

Are you building a boat?

 

i shouldbuild oneand get outtathis hellhole,,maybe i come visit ya hehe ; )

 

You are welcome as I could do with a crew for a while (share running costs?)

 

ya bro,,ill share the cost aslong as its under a buck-three-fifty

 

OK hehehe

 

What do you think Port Phillip Publishing, Dan Denning, Daily Reckoning etc etc etc are ?

They themselves are pushing shitty shares and get rich quick schemes and bag anything and everything apart from whatever it is they themselves peddle on the day.

The simple fact that you seem to refer regularly to them like they are some great soothsayer with a guaranteed picture to the future is what concerns me

Have you read a book called The Fortune Sellers: the big business of buying and selling predictions? << click

No offence taken
Your gamble not mine.

 

Still far to early to leave gold for other assets...
...perhaps as long as € and $ survive.

Don´t just look at charts and performance comparisons. Precious metals are still the only money without a counterpart risk. It´s not an investment, it´s an insurance against monetary stupidity and irresponsible governments only following the desires of banks, big corporate entities and shareholder value ideals.

 

There are many hard assets that can be used for storing/preserving wealth.
The difference is that these other assets provide a yield, income, cold hard cash.
Gold does nothing but take up space.

 

Perfectly correct, but then you should also take into account that money depreciated about 20-25% per year against gold during the last years and I cannot see a change in economic, fiscal and monetary politics that seems able to reverse that trend...
Never said that the wolrd is coming to an end nor that gold should be your only investment, if you actively run a business you should also use the time to modernize, invest in production facilities or improve your products. But i would nopt feel tempted by the stock market in the sense of "buy and hold" at the moment. Oh, yes, of course you could make fast money on public debt in certain countries, but you might also have to face a default.