What Do We Think About Climate Change

More doubts on CO2 forcing

Nature Geoscience 3, 587 - 588 (2010)
Published online: 1 August 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo932

Short-lived uncertainty?

Joyce E. Penner1, Michael J. Prather2, Ivar S. A. Isaksen3,4, Jan S. Fuglestvedt4, Zbigniew Klimont5 & David S. Stevenson6

1. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2143, USA
2. University of California, Irvine, California 92697, USA
3. University of Oslo, PO Box 1022, Blindern, 0315 Oslo, Norway
4. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) Oslo, PO Box 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway
5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
6. School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JN, UK.

Correspondence to: Joyce E. Penner1 e-mail: penner@umich.edu

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n9/full/ngeo932.html


Abstract

Short-lived greenhouse gases and black-carbon aerosols have contributed to past climate warming. Curbing their emissions and quantifying the forcing by all short-lived components could both mitigate climate change in the short term and help to refine projections of global warming.

Earth's climate can only be stabilized by bringing carbon dioxide emissions under control in the twenty-first century. But rolling back anthropogenic emissions of several short-lived atmospheric pollutants that lead to warming — such as methane, tropospheric ozone precursors and black-carbon aerosols — could significantly reduce the rate of climate warming over the next few decades.


In spite of what the abstract can suggest, the article states that not only did other factors account for 65% of the radiative forcing usually attributed to carbon dioxide, but that it is impossible to accurately determine climate sensitivity given the state of climate science.

Joyce E. Penner et al. note that several short-lived atmospheric pollutants – such as methane, tropospheric ozone precursors and black-carbon aerosols – contribute to atmospheric warming while others, particularly scattering aerosols, cool the climate. Figuring out exactly how great the impacts of these other forcings are can radically change the way historical climate change is interpreted. So great is the uncertainty that the IPCC’s future climate predictions, are quite untrustworthy. As stated in the article:

It is at present impossible to accurately determine climate sensitivity (defined as the equilibrium warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations) from past records, partly because carbon dioxide and short-lived species have increased together over the industrial era. Warming over the past 100 years is consistent with high climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide combined with a large cooling effect from short-lived aerosol pollutants, but it could equally be attributed to a low climate sensitivity coupled with a small effect from aerosols. These two possibilities lead to very different projections for future climate change.


The report is clear – CO2 does not account for even a majority of the warming seen over the past century. If other species accounted for 65% of historical warming that leaves only 35% for carbon dioxide.

 

but that's the nature of feed back , a small force controlling a large force

 

Excuse me, but that's the nature of men's sex. An small head controlling a big head

 

that too

gman i think you're coming around, you must be running out of arguments against the facts

when you do, you can come back under a new nick

 

And also the nature of idiotice:
An small amount of neurones in the brain causes the biggest and most ridiculous daringness...

 

gman, have I insulted you , say by calling you spanish or something?

 

Maybe he is just tired of casting pearls before swine. (G, No te preocupes del c0mem1erda.)

 

pigs are one of the most intelligent of animals

 

Not that it does them much good....they're too tasty.

Speaking of which, have you ever seen pictures of entelodonts? They were basically wart hogs from Hell in the Eocene and Miocene eras: cloven-hoofed predators standing almost seven feet tall at the shoulders, and weighing 900 pounds or more.

 

haven't heard of them

just looked them up. they were around for about 21 million years and us about a million and already we are soiling the nest, so much for our inteligence

 

Oh, relax. As a species, we're a mere child. Children always do that; it takes a while for them to get potty-trained.

 

The sooner the better I think! We can explore space, map DNA and recreate the big bang but show total disregard for the very thing that binds us all, let's see what the next ice age brings...

 

400 degrees??? REALLY?!?!

OOPSY!



http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/28479

 

This was bigger.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,275524,00.html

 

Yeah, I remember the story.

It turned out that the pig had been a farmer's pet. He was bought and turned loose in a fenced hunting enclosure, specifically so the kid could shoot him. And it still took him eight shots over several hours. Not my idea of sport or humane killing. His dad should have that .50 revolver rammed up his rear end....