Higher Oil Prices Coming

...and they could be SIGNIFICANT !!


Oil Prices at Nine-Month High as Iraq Instability Continues
...the Wall Street Journal
Oil Prices at Nine-Month High as Iraq Instability Continues - WSJ

It seems really ironic that I believe one of our primary reasons for invading Iraq was to hopefully allow for a 'new' government that was 'friendly' to the USA, and sitting on top of the second largest proven sweet oil reserves in the world.

 

Crude Oil Prices Soaring on New Attacks in Iraq; Here's Where They're Headed

 

So, you have a solution or something? What's the point of the thread?

 

The solution that seemingly might have been adopted long ago is to partition Iraq, with a Kurdish state to the north, Sunni to the west, Shiite in the south-east. But these are only "majority" populations in those areas, there is no clean divide, and conflict could quite easily continue within them.

 

Well just one of the points to the thread is that your boating fuel cost are likely to go way up, as well as the cost of petro based boat building materials.

 

Deja Vu all over again Just like the oil embargo of the early 70's. Let's hope we don't see the (reputed) 'thinned out' resin matter again.

 

Has America tested those Atom Bombs lately. Not of course it has anything to do with this thread, just asking.

Poida

 

Iraq isn't really a country, but a loosely held region (historically). It's recent history (last 100 years) is pitiful in regard to how it's been ruled and is nothing more then a continuance of the inability of the indigenous people's diverse and often absurd belief and political positions.

For several hundred years under the Ottoman empire, the area was simply a battle field over these conflicting regional and tribal alliances. After the British finally took control of this area in WWI, they drew up it's boarders without regard to political, religious and ethnic considerations, so naturally, the battles, particularly with the Kurds and Shiite continued.

With the global lose of influence of Brittan after WWII, the nation (term used loosely), eventually spiraled into a bloody separation resulted around the early 60's, ultimately with the Baathist party taking control. An iron fist policy reined until we (the USA) removed them from power and sided with the Shia based government now in power.

This is an area of the world that has long remained behind the curve, in every way you measure a society. Social advancement, technologically, personal and religious freedoms, you name it, in each and every way a society is measured, this area (which is much larger than just Iraq's boarders) has been eventually a free for all, with whatever war lord is in local control, calling the shots. It's mostly because they strongly mix religion with their political views, which just doesn't work. Religion is faith based, while politics requires a level of rational thought, often in direct opposition to ancient religious writings. A classic example of this can be seen in western societies, where the bible says it's okay to sell your daughter and own slaves, but the logical evolution of a society suggests, this isn't acceptable behavior for a modern society.

Oil prices at the pumps in the USA will likely rise 10 to 20 cents, but that's about it folks and part of the natural "swing" of oil prices, during the course of any year, in regard to the "activities" of middle eastern governments inability to actual govern.

In spite of the ridiculousness coming from the far right in the political spectrum here, the country will not permit yet another war in Iraq. Sometimes calmer heads do prevail, unless of course we elect another "oil man" for president, such as the last two that went to war in Iraq (Bush and a . . ., well Bush Jr.). Lets hope Jeb doesn't suddenly get well positioned come 2015.

 

Why did we build the Taj Mahal of all US embassies in the little country of Iraq?. I would have thought we might build that in China.

 

Onward into the future. What really has me concerned now is that we have stirred up a hornets nest over there (as I predicted before this war), and now we have the beginnings of a really BIG religious war between the various factions of the Muslim population,...and that could even bring a number of other countries over there into the conflict,...to include Iran, Syria, and even Saudi.

Imagine what that will do to the oil supplies of the world,...and the prices that speculators will drive those prices to. I'm not a betting man, but I would venture to wager that crude will reach $130 per barrel in short order.

What will another hit like that do to the world's (and our) economy? And what will it do to our recovering boating industry?

 

I used to think of those that occupy that area of the world as degenerates, but that being a complicated word, 'retrogressives' works better.

The basis of their society is a vicious circle of fundamental, radical Islam and willful, abysmal ignorance. It's a corruption of humanity, a barrier to enlightenment and should be treated as a pestilence.

**** their oil, we don't need it.

 

I think there is some truth to that.

I would not be so quick to make that statement, whether its our needing it, or the rest of the world needing it, that will ultimately effect us. And remember there is a favorable 'depletion rate' to those oil fields over there that don't exist for 'fracked-style' gathering of gas and oil.

 

Rants about $4.36 regular unleaded, $4.64 prem unleaded, $4.44 #2 diesel, by a grump!

Calm, modern, practical thinking should have been, since we were already there in Iraq, we should have retained some control of the military bases in Iraq for stability, rather than political decision to leave Iraq since this was a Bush's war and my party is against this war, even though both parties authorized going to the war. Retaining some military bases would have saved many lives of all ethnicities including Americans.

Calm, modern, practical thinking should have been, if any parties of Non-Proliferation has nuclear weapons of mass destruction, verify weapons by multiple parties, then remove it reasonably safely without playing politics. We could have done that in Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
Iraq; not verified, went to war prematurely, and left prematurely.
Iran; not fully verified but we know it is very close, but somebody in Pennsylvania Avenue is not doing the job at the moment. He is too busy pulling our troops out of other blunders, IRS cover up, Embassy cover up, building his legacy, etc.
North Korea; verified but our leaders then (2 of them from each parties) didn't do anything. Oh well, they have The BOMBs now. Japan and S.Korea will want one or we have to provide nuclear umbrella.

Calm, modern, practical thinking should have been, we should have a comprehensive energy policy by every administration, but 'We The People' are also busy fighting political battles, so we didn't develop our energy future and didn't want to develop our oil fields either.
We can develop our oil production and nuclear power plants to ramp up output during energy crisis until we find alternative, clean, sustainable energy. We can agree to use fracking, deep sea drilling, tar sands, coals, nuclear powers, etc, so our "modern populace of modern society" won't die from each crisis.

I am not just blaming our Liberals and Conservatives, but also every other groups that are proud of their ethnicity, culture, government and religion. Where were all of us? We failed as a group, humanity. No room for blaming any groups in generalization.

We need oil! Be realistic! Without oil, people die from weather, hunger, medicine, cost of healthcare, economy, and so on. If oil is bad then we need alternatives, clean coal (not there yet and it kills people by hundreds of thousands per year), nuclear power (pretty safe but most "environmentalists" are against it), domestic oil fields (many people use oil burning cars to show up to demonstrate), conservation (99% don't want to do it), solar panels & electric cars (are not the answer, but they help), hydrogen energy (cost more energy to produce than hydrogen can provide), methane hydrate (plenty but it is definitely not ready).

We the people need to vote with our logic. It isn't that liberals have answers. It isn't that Westerners have answers. Westerners caused majority of global warming and caused most recent wars. Yes, others should learn from our mistakes. Yes, yous in Western Pacifics and Indian Ocean. No, I don't support any terrorists, so don't send me any pledge requests.
I do my part to drive a hybrid car, use greywater around the house, use solar energy, separate wastes for recycling, my household produces less than 1 cubic foot of garbage per week. Until we have clean, affordable, renewable energy, I am here to learn which boat design will give me a comfortable, fuel efficient and economical cruising boat for my fishing and boating addictions. And, it isn't the latest sail boat either. Some low power, nice cruising (8-25 knots) and comfortable boat for all my family members. Until then, I will vote for most practical political leaders, maintain my existing boat with twin outboards, and continue to conserve.

 

Can you explain that ? I'm not sure what that means.

 

Well, some contractor influence (profiteering) may have been involved, but it was mostly the concept of what the real story with the war was, which wasn't removal of the government or WMD's (which they knew weren't there). The whole idea of the second conflict was to develop a friendly, oil rich nation in the region. Don't let anyone tell you anything otherwise, because it's simply not true. The very first two bases built where called Mobil and Exxon (no kidding).

We didn't stir up anything that hasn't been there for hundreds of years. Under the Baathist rule, it was crushed with an iron fist, so we didn't hear much about it. We knew about Kurds getting gassed, opposition party members getting torched or jailed, etc., but the USA's political policy in this region has been to stick it's head in the sand and pretend it's not happening, until it affects oil prices. Previous to the Baathist, there was lots of difficulty, under self rule and the various empires that controlled the region. Unlike what some hint at, there has never been a repetitively peaceful era in this part of the world. Even Genghis Khan didn't know what to do with this area.

Their society isn't based this way and this is a fundamental misconception with the west. Previously, individual sects would handle internal strife before the world stage had a chance to ***** about it. With the explosion in communications in the last few decades, keeping "events" under wraps isn't possible.

Previously, these extremists would be jailed, or killed, often right in the streets, but with world wide public awareness and an interest to look like an "enlightened" society, this has been on the decrease in the later quarter of a century. Don't get me wrong, they still are butchers, just not as much as before.

You must remember, this area of the world is very different then the west. Personal freedoms are purchased not a fundamental right. These governments are totalitarian, dictatorial, Draconian, etc. and this is far different then what the west is able to understand. They still live in a empire dominated world, where unrest is handled with a hanging or mass imprisonment, rather then a judicial system. With the advent of the communications explosion, they (the people) are starting to see it doesn't have to be this way and the most radical elements of these are "busting out" for change. This is the usual course for internal governmental change and the very way the USA won it's independence 233 years ago.

Simply put, the best thing we as a nation can do, is offer some support at an humanitarian level and let them hack it out themselves. Of course, this means the next most powerful war lord might just seize control, but this is just the way it goes sometimes. The more we meddle, they less we get, historically, so take a look at every single other country's internal politics we attempted to manipulate. We (as every other country has also learned) have a dismal record in getting what we want in this regard.

A case in point is the Syria uprising. The boneheads on the right (USA) wanted us to send troops and guns, but cooler heads prevailed (fortunately) and we didn't send much, but humanitarian aid. Unfortunately, the Saudi's didn't learn this lesson and sent lots of weapons and cash to the rebels. The problem (as has always been) with this approach is, you have to predict what will happen after the crap passes through the fan. In this case all those weapons and money are now pouring over the Syrian boarder into western Iraq.

We actually do need their oil, though the USA doesn't use much of it, you have to remember how oil and it's pricing is done, which makes this point important. It's not like a country sells it's oil to another and pricing is arranged, to suit how friendly they might be toward each other. This is an important distinction, particularly with pricing. Barrel prices have dropped in recent days, mostly because investors exspect (or are hoping) things aren't going to get much worse. These fluctuations are quite normal during the course of any year, so nothing to get worries about (yet).