Some one has to start it, Americas default.

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by Frosty, Jul 29, 2011.

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  1. troy2000
    Joined: Nov 2009
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    troy2000 Senior Member

    Oh Lord, is it the end of the world again?

    It's getting old. This is what -- the third or fourth time just this year? Sooner or later people will start noticing....
     
  2. masalai
    Joined: Oct 2007
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    masalai masalai

    I only carry the word as I see it??? but OK read and laugh, no one else is doing any research to find this stuff or find other sources... All you seem to do is pick - so pick your nose - you may find some gold?

    I do not have the resources to find other data to verify beyond the links given like at ZeroHedge... Go dig and PLEASE EXPLAIN... I am not in that play... zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
     
  3. rwatson
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    rwatson Senior Member

    Getting a little hysterical there Mas


    Take this typical quote from last week:-

    Product
    CMX METALS E-MINI SILVER FUTURES 6Q 07/2014 07/2014

    Initial...................Maintenance
    4,995 USD------------3,700 USD



    last week it was $4995/$3750
    Next week its $4995/$4995 or $1200 per extra contracts for the same product



    Big F*&%&%$^ Deal !!!!!




    The Overall Margin depends on each product of course - they are just upping the ratio of volatility that the investor has to cover for 'adjustments' after the initial contract.

    Note -

    "Margin levels are set to cover roughly 99 percent of the possible price moves for a position in a trading day or multiple trading days.
    When daily price moves become less volatile, margins typically go down because the risk of the position also decreases.
    CME Clearing determines “initial margin,” which is the margin that market participants must pay when they initiate a position with a clearing firm.
    The clearing house also determines “maintenance margin,” the level at which market participants must maintain their margin over time.
    This is similar to when you sign up for a checking or savings account. A bank will typically require a minimum initial deposit with a certain balance required for as long as your account is open.




    The move to "100%" is NOT 100% of the contract, its 100% of the maximum movement (margin) on the contract.

    eg. The contract may be worth $150,000, but the maximum and minimum price movement over the week may be $12,000.

    You have to have $12,000 in your account, not the full contract value. Until next week, you could make adjustments on your contract at a discounted risk rate. Now, every adjustment ( or same product contract ) will be using the same risk ratio as they did on your first contract.




    For anyone wanting to read further.

    The facts on Margin Levels

    http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/files/cme-clearing-margins-quick-facts-2011.pdf


    two excerpts from the Info :

    1. Margin changes are routine in CME Group markets.
    Margin levels are set to cover roughly 99 percent of the possible price moves for a position in a trading day or multiple trading days.
    When daily price moves become more volatile, a clearing provider such as CME Clearing typically raises margins to account for the increased risk. This change could be triggered by such things as:
    • Supply/demand shifts;
    • Changes in fiscal policy;
    • Major geopolitical events; or
    • Natural disasters.
    When daily price moves become less volatile, margins typically go down because the risk of the position also decreases.
    For example, silver market volatility resulted in 11 margin increases in the last year, while copper market volatility pushed margins down twice during the same period.


    4. There are two different kinds of margin levels, initial and maintenance,
    and changes for both are usually announced 24 hours in advance.
    CME Clearing determines “initial margin,” which is the margin that market participants must pay when they initiate a position with a clearing firm.

    The clearing house also determines “maintenance margin,” the level at which market participants
    must maintain their margin over time.
    This is similar to when you sign up for a checking or savings account. require a minimum initial deposit with a certain balance required for as long as your account is open.
     
  4. CatBuilder

    CatBuilder Previous Member

    Big thanks to rwatson for putting facts into the thread. Mas, you're a good guy, but it might be time to stop reading this entertainment media you keep posting from and take a course or read a text book.

    Troy: Don't forget, we have yet another end of the world coming high up. 2012! Ha ha ha!
     
  5. Leo Lazauskas
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    Leo Lazauskas Senior Member

    Sadly, Mas only posts links to blogs that support his own beliefs. He never gives links to those who argue a contrary or different position.
     
  6. troy2000
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    troy2000 Senior Member

    I don't see how you could possibly have time to read every link you post. And the last time I checked a few out, they were pretty much bs -- extolling the virtues of some convicted con man's economic forecasts. Why should I take stuff like that seriously?

    I suppose that if someone predicts the end of the world long enough, he'll eventually be proven right -- supposing he lives long enough. Meanwhile, I have a life to live.

    And I'm sorry you don't appreciate my humor. But I think it's the only rational response to irrational hysteria....
     
  7. CatBuilder

    CatBuilder Previous Member

    This is a weird thread. I really enjoyed reading about the fuel filtering techniques.

    Much of the rest of it is like reading an article about Lindsey Lohan. You really don't want to read it. You know it's going to be a lot of drama. BUT... you look anyway. Like a train wreck. :)
     
  8. WestVanHan
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    WestVanHan Not a Senior Member

    Raising the margin has happened several times this year on silver,as the price of silver has shot up...so I fail to see how this one will end the world.
    The copper futures margin has dropped,because copper has dropped

    The most simple and basic money management involved in actively trading any commodity or market is to risk a maximum of only 2-3% of your account on any given trade.

    So take your tick value, look at the margin requirements,look at the possible short swings and decide if you need more margin or whether you should trade at all.Or maybe trade the mini.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2011
  9. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    If you read the link at zerohedge you would have seen the "News" came direct from CME, as a margin call on almost everything, and as you will know in daylight hours in USA the CME group reversed that requirement and lowered the margins they required... IT WAS A NOTIFICATION BY CME and I relayed that information... IF CME has gone insane, do not blame me - look at the bloody source and do not blame me for being paranoid...

    What made me GASP was that the margin call was 100% - that would have really ripped into silver... amongst a lot of other things the smaller player may be into...

    It would be nice to get other relevant reading links so far only 'bamby', 'hoyt' and 'bntii' have added the occasional link, the rest seem content to quietly read, or criticise... Oh well so be it...

    Trainwreck watchers, ambulance chasers - If this is for your entertainment just read and be entertained - you will not get better on any "reality TV show" anywhere.... For those not in total denial - you have learnt to read between the lines and are totally amazed at the stupidity and incompetence of business and political leaders...

    WVH,
    Your points are valid and intelligent normal business investing advice... Please look at the full advisory from CME - it was for a full 100% call... At least that is how it was explained to me, as I do not play that game, but understand that the consequences of that requirement, for all the smaller players with CME products would have been hung out and nailed to the cross with no mercy....

    Troy,
    Who is this identity? "-- extolling the virtues of some convicted con man's economic forecasts. "

    You are the one harping on about the "end of the world" - I am not so confident, but I do see a potential for the collapse of western economies eventually and a lot of stupidity, panic and fraud as that event slowly approaches closer and closer... Who is the paranoid?

    I get 10 to 40 essay type emails on weekdays, half I read carefully and the rest I "speed-read" or skim every paragraph... That way, I do not spend, keep my mind busy, and can save up for fuel... next trip will be 1500 to 2000 litres...

    Hi Leo,
    regarding "Sadly, Mas only posts links to blogs that support his own beliefs. He never gives links to those who argue a contrary or different position."
    - If some credibility is demonstrated, I will link but I have not found much apart from some pushing the Keynesian line of fraud, manipulation and deception as being necessary to preserve confidence in fiat currencies and other faith based investments... anyway I am endeavouring to stick to the title of the thread, "Some one has to start it, Americas default."......

    I would deeply appreciate it if some could post links, within context, to provide an alternative view....

    rwatson,
    Not me I am laughing with delight... - - That is what Bix Weir said... - - Is that not clear? - For an extended quote I use, "color=purple" for the <copy> & <paste> stuff... - - As I said earlier, I do not play that game, and rely on the data provided, including a pdf of the CME call, most of which I do not understand... (Methinks that the sun had well and truly passed the yardarm and the writer seemed to qualify as well and truly inebriated)... .... I rely on the explanation supplied at the Zero-hedge link, which I still accept as a reasonable translation of the original CME advice...

    Thanks very much for the correction to my limited understanding... I do not play the market, all I do is read for personal entertainment, which some of the links fall into that category, some are quite informative and some are potentially frightening in their potential outcomes/impact.... That the 'global debt can' is continually 'kicked down the road', is nothing short of "bloody astounding"... Comments and ideas floated defy credulity for example, one official in a global corporation suggested a 50 year moratorium on debt... - has merit as I am sure I could benefit, but the consequences are dire, as, - Who would pay? - - Imagine - - on - - say, 2050 and again on 2100, all your debts would be cancelled :D :D :p

    further admission by CME of "errors" and "confusion" resulting from their initial 'advisory' - explained here http://www.businessinsider.com/cme-margin-changes-on-monday-2011-11
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2011
  10. masalai
    Joined: Oct 2007
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    masalai masalai

    http://www.gata.org/node/10643 Links to zerohedge, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-i...s-usher-more-risk-less-liquidity-mf-aftermath where CME issues a clarification and actually reduces margins :eek: - - here is the original post explanation - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-g...s-maintenance-margin-equal-initial-everything

    I will spare you the drama that Bix Weir adds to the same story...

    For Frosty,
    http://www.gata.org/node/10640 "British can petition Bank of England to come clean on gold swaps and leases" - for what effect or benefit? - buggered if I know? - but it sounds like a fun thing to do... if one has money in GB...

    http://www.gata.org/node/10639 "CFTC issues update on long-running silver probe" - Is this another episode in lawlessness in putting a toothless mouse to guard the global cheese from the rats of society's top 1%?

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/ed...er-3-years-investigating-silver-answer-enough The links (scroll way down) offer a diverse read and most will capture some interest... herewith a couple of cartoons (fairly mediocre)

    17613
     

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  11. troy2000
    Joined: Nov 2009
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    troy2000 Senior Member

    That would be Martin Armstrong -- or as you billed him in post 331 of the thread 'Maybe Masalai is right after all,' "Martin Armstrong, market forecaster stifled by U.S. government"

    What you call 'stifling,' I'd call 'throwing his sorry, thieving butt in jail where it belongs.'
     
  12. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    My goodnes, Dredging to the depth of ancient history - months ago (10-03-2011) on a "dead thread", that has since been viewed near 2000 times since being posted... Click on the links and you will see that it was comment of no great moment and his history was declared - cannot handle "tongue-in-cheek" yourself I see... How petty that you must re-use the copy of the article headline (in quotes too) to attribute FALSLY to me - is this more petty troy BS? Oh well try and do a bit of research and provide the link, not the ancient post # ..... - Better still read the links first, - and appreciate a bit of sarcastic Aussy humour...
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...sive__Martin_Armstrong_-_Golds_Next_Move.html Probably more credibility than some...
     
  13. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    http://cnbusinessnews.com/silver-price-manipulated-says-regulator/ from CHINA BUSINESS NEWS titled "Silver Price Manipulated, says Regulator" Bart Chilton himself, CFTC Commissioner has some points of interest...

    http://www.gata.org/node/10644 "Bullion banks, CME try to hobble CFTC, Maguire tells King World News - - Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2011-11-06 00:41. Section: Daily Dispatches - - 8:41p ET Saturday, November 5, 2011
    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): - - Silver market rigging whistleblower Andrew Maguire today tells King World News that manipulation of the silver market continues as bullion banks and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange try to prevent the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission from getting the staff necessary to enforce new regulations. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:"

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...uire_-_Silver_Manipulation_Still_Ongoing.html adds to the case as another credible witness who could not be scared off...
     
  14. masalai
    Joined: Oct 2007
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    masalai masalai

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...ld-destroy-the-entire-global-financial-system - - Why not read this piece, reasonably presented and puts things in simple ways that most should be able to understand... The numbers are within the ballpark of plausibility... more so than any other case I have heard or read... - It is not new, sometime around October 19, 2011... This is where the economic danger lies - - "The Coming Derivatives Crisis..."

    If that does not scare the bejuses out of you, then you are either brain-dead, in-total-denial of really-confused... enjoy as it is really an easy read... A trillion is 12 zeros a quadrillion is 15 zeros?
     

  15. Frosty

    Frosty Previous Member

    I am brain dead and in total denial, I am unable to have the beguzuz scared out me.

    After my little conversation withan exec of Sanatander he said the right words, they made sence and that was that they are awash with cash and that 4 billion oxposure to the European credit crisis is peanuts and that they turned down 1.5 billion pounds this year alone becaue the dont want it. Why should they pay interest on it if the cant lend it.

    At dinner last night with an ex HSBC banker from Hong konk he confirmed the cash situation in Europe and that those figure were conservative and that HSBC's figure were much larger.

    Although this is good news to me because im not in debt it does feel correct. The markets have sold out billions so where did it go,---cash.

    Now,--- I know that sitting on cash is stupid at 3% when inflation is 5% every body knows this but preservation of capital right now is all you can do and 3% is better than a flimsey gold deal or loosing it completely.

    Yes maybe an old mans idea of investment and Ive been told that before but I am an old man --I can hardleyt go back to work at 59 so I have to stick with 3% and I KNOW what I will have at the end of the year no matter what the FED does to gold or margins on the stock casino.

    I have wonderd whyt Germany can cunjure up billions and France can too, it would appear that money is flooding the place.

    America seems to be the opposite, they actually dont have any.

    But bieng awash doesnt help growth,-- its confidence thats needed not money, investment, jobs, manufacturing. Strange situation,-- not a recession but a stall. Engine need re lighting some how.
     
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