Foiler vulnerability to trash in the water

Discussion in 'Sailboats' started by Chris Ostlind, Mar 12, 2010.

  1. bistros

    bistros Previous Member

    Beezt3:

    Actually, My intent wasn't to cast a net that captured only commercial success - as this would fundamentally capture (possibly) only one class. My intent was to stop the use of unavailable, one-only and boats for that do not exist in the real world from being used as statistics to support arguments.

    The jury is still out on whether or not the Moth will be a commercial success - Bladerider scaled back things last year and Mr. Veal exited the limelight. No matter how many Mach 2 boats are built, the good folks at McConaghy are going to to be watching the volumes without a lot of sympathy as well.

    The Kiwi efforts in the R Class are interesting, but a bit of an anomaly - there is a core of very highly skilled folks in a geographically small (by North America standards) area willing to work together to make something happen. This kind of co-operative "magic" is hard to achieve in other places. Perhaps possible in Sydney and the UK where there is a high enough concentration of talent, experience and co-operation, but not many other places.

    --
    Bill
     
  2. bgulari
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    bgulari Junior Member

    think there are a 100 m2's now
     
  3. bistros

    bistros Previous Member

    That's about what I figured. Add that to maybe 200 Bladeriders of various construction and maybe 30 Prowlers (all guesses mine and highly likely to be wrong). Class legal Moth foilers probably number around 300-350 all told.

    That being said, all manufacturing shops like predictable, steady volume. Tooling and non-recurring engineering costs generally take time to recover and allow a manufacturing plant to become profitable.

    From the recent results at the Worlds, it looks like the future is bright for the Mach 2 - but it's success will probably come at the expense of the others. Adding maybe 50 - 100 boats per year isn't going to threaten Performance Sailcraft's volume leading Laser market share.

    It is a nice, manageable business, but I can't see AMAC becoming a Rolls Royce client any time soon.

    The real foiling "revolution" is guys like you generously taking guys like me out and showing us it is fun, possible and affordable. It isn't the ceaseless verbal regurgitation of nonsense formula and hype that goes on here.

    --
    Bill
     
  4. Doug Lord
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    Doug Lord Flight Ready

    ==================
    The real foiling revolution was begun by the Moth pioneers and is still being led by the Moth in performance single handers. But the R Class and developments like Mirabaud are the new leaders of the high performance revolution as they expand bi-foiling into two and three person boats. All these boats are performance monofoilers but there is a whole other side of the revolution that has barely been scratched: designing, building and marketing an easy to launch and retrieve, easy to sail and relatively inexpensive bi-foiler-you know: a "Peoples Foiler". Thats where AMAC may come in because that is what he said his interest is now and that is, without a doubt, the leading edge of the revolution.
     
  5. bistros

    bistros Previous Member

    Doug, you confuse pioneers with revolutionaries. Pioneers can individually open new territory, and revolutionaries change the existing status quo by bringing people to their cause and converting their views to a common vision. The two words do not mean the same thing.

    Most of the projects you promote are pioneering efforts, not revolutionary causes. Mirabaud, interesting as it is, is not an attempt to bring more people to foiling, it is an advertising scheme for a bank that funds one individual's interests in building a large foiler. AMAC is breaking new ground in being the first credible foiling expert to try to make a foiler for juniors. For this to succeed, the next phase will need a revolutionary effort to get the message out and convert the status quo Opti crowd into believers.

    Che Guevara, a controversial revolutionary guerrilla leader helped Castro overturn the Cuban political and power structure.

    Lewis & Clarke opened up the midwestern part of North America. They were pioneers.

    I hope this helps you understand my post (and the English language). I'm sure it will result in more abuse and anger.

    --
    Bill
     
  6. Gary Baigent
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    Gary Baigent Senior Member

    Interesting interpretation Bill. However the pioneer is always ahead of the madding crowd, they pioneer after all, are the early movers into territory not visited before, show what is possible - therefore they are revolutionary in terms of the general masses' (conservative) viewpoint. I think both terms cross over each other.
     
  7. ancient kayaker
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    ancient kayaker aka Terry Haines

    Mirabaud can be seen at http://www.sailkarma.com/2008/04/heres-video-on-mirabaud-lx.html

    40 sec into the video a foil strut can be seen with its guide and clamp, and at 60 sec the boat can be seen on a trolley with a retracted foil. The twin box "hull" allows a hand to reach down to operate the clamps, I guess.

    Gary: I think Bill agrees with Doug, that it is a revolution!
     
  8. Doug Lord
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    Doug Lord Flight Ready

  9. CT 249
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    CT 249 Senior Member

    The revolution still seems to be delayed, looking at the sales and use figures. The Moth sales numbers are fairly good (150 on '09, 200 in '08). One wonders how much of that is due the brilliance of the Moth, the newness of the production foiler, the huge marketing spend, an outstanding grass-roots marketing effort, etc. BR was set up for a production of 500 boats per year with one product alone, and apparently a couple of builders have unsold boats.

    However, class activity seems to be static, from the reported numbers;

    2002 - Oz- 50 members, Japan 30, UK 50, Germany 70, Sweden 38*
    2006- Oz 48 members, Jap 20, UK 41, Ger 75, Swe 38, USA "20+"
    2008 - Oz 55 members, Jap 24, Uk 45, Ger 80, Swe 35, USA 25.
    2009- Oz 42 members, Jap 20, UK 65, Ger 75, Sweden 35, France 30, USA 21

    National titles fleet UK- 17 in 2000, 20 in 2001, 19 in 2002, growing to 20, 29 and 37 over the last three years. Oz nationals fleets also grew (until the drop to 15 this year).

    BTW of the other foilers- Int 14 had 34 at the UK nationals in 2001**, 43 in 2002, and 53, 32 and 36 over the last three years. The RS 600 FF had 15, dropping to 11.

    Moth Worlds fleets over last 4 events; 47 (Aust), 63 (Lake Garda), 49 (Gorge), 42 (Middle East).

    Note that the UK has seen an overall rise of about 5% in nationals attendance, across all classes. The Moth has certainly moved up the list of UK classes, in terms of nationals attendance. There does not seem to be huge growth in foiler activity overall.

    Of interest, over the period since foilers arrived, the following classes have also arrived in the UK;

    RS Feva - first nats 7 years ago, now attracting 72 boats;
    Laser SB3 sportsboat - first nats 8 years ago, now attracting 68 boats;
    Laser Pico - first nats 4 years ago, now attracting 54 boats.
    Musto P. Skiff - 9 nats, now getting 50 boats;
    RS Tera - 39 boats at its second nats;
    RS Vareo - 8 nats, 38 boats;
    Rooster 8.1 - 3 years of nats, 34 boats.
    Laser 4.7 - 9 years of nats, 33 boats.

    In other words, you certainly can get growth, but it's normally happening in slower boats, just as it always has. This pretty much blows the "kids these days just want fast boats" line out of the water. The biggest growth area is NOT in fast boats (skiff types are losing numbers) but in polyethylene boats.

    I have been interested in these numbers for some time, but I didn't bring them up until yet another foiler sailor slagged off the popular classes publically yet again. For all the stuff about how fast boats are supposedly the future, the fact is that they aren't growing. Maybe they should take the proverbial long hard look and realise that their negative sales tactics are not the way to go to grow the sport and fast boats?

    The funny thing is that those who claim to be the innovators often seem to be unwilling to open their own minds. We're so often told that the future lies in fast boats that the facts are often ignored, and the fact is that that the strongest growth in the strongest market is in simple, slow boats.

    Recognising the facts may not be as much fun as insulting other classes, but surely it's more productive. We're so ready to assume that all 2010 kids are speed-freak hoons that we are unwilling to see that most of them choose 'normal' boats. We blame 'normal' boats on a teenage/early adult drop-off that happens in every other sport (seen many 22 year olds at the skate park or on a BMX lately?? 75% of skaters drop out after 19, so why blame a smaller drop-off in sailors on the 'coolness' of the boats? )

    The other fact that is often ignored is that growth in the fast boats follows growth in slow boats. Look at any boomtime (whether it was the first dinghy boom, the windsurfer boom, the yacht boom or cat boom) and the pattern is clear - simpler, cheaper classes move in and create growth where bigger and/or more sophisticated performance classes couldn't. Then a proportion of those new sailors move onto create a boom in the fast craft. This was specifically noted by some of the leaders of the dinghy and windsurfer booms, for example. And you can see it by graphing the numbers of various classes during the growth periods.

    Maybe the real revolution will occur when sailors of fast stuff stop slagging off slow stuff and slow-boat sailors, and realise that they are often true innovators and the source of fast-boat growth.


    * my note on Sweden 02 seems wrong so I used the 03 figure.
    ** previous national numbers affected by a world titles.
     
  10. Doug Lord
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    Doug Lord Flight Ready

    ==============
    I've had experience with your "facts" in the past -but then you know that.
    Just out of curiosity who, in this thread, insulted any other class?

    ---
    And as in past examples you don't see a revolution when its staring you in the face: it has taken far longer than I thought it would to see serious development of a Peoples Foiler-the only foiler that could possibly challenge production numbers of seahuggers. And you would be right in one sense: it will be slower than the high performance foilers but infinitely easier to sail.
    And you're sorta right about the revolution being delayed in terms of the Peoples Foiler-but during the "delay" there has been a dramatic improvement in foiler technology across the board. For instance, Phils old mantra about "no foiler bigger than a Moth could foil" has been resoundingly proven incorrect.
    All this "slow" development will come together one day in an incredible easy to sail foiler that will transcend everything thats come before it in numbers produced and people involved. Revolutions take time and, believe me, this one will have been worth the wait -even if it(they) is(are) slower than a Moth.....
     
  11. peterraymond
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    peterraymond Junior Member

    Yes, it seems to me too that Bill and Doug are agreeing. But, while English is my first language, I won't claim any expertise there and I'm happy to be corrected.

    I noticed that the forward foil on Mirabaud was significantly ahead of the mast. The main foil on a Moth is in a more "normal" position isn't it?

    The guide and clamp I noticed looked like they're for the rudder. Those look something like bicycle quick releases along the back. I did see the retracted foil. Maybe they do the same thing both places, or I just didn't look closely enough.

    I thought the box hulls were so that they could drop the hulls for the video Doug posted, but maybe they've been reading this forum and the plan is to qualify as a C-class catamaran for Newport this summer! It did look like double hulls the full length.

    Are we done with trash in the water? Maybe we should move part of the conversation to foiler design and part to, well do we have a thread on foiler market share? I think CT had some good information there.
     
  12. Chris Ostlind

    Chris Ostlind Previous Member

    It couldn't be that this revolution has never happened, could it? If anything, it's been more like a slow fizzle with a couple of flags in the air.

    Many years ago we were treated to a Roman Candle pronouncement about the People's Foiler and how it would be at the cutting edge of the massive foiler revolution in sailing. Fatso's and fools everywhere would be launching off beaches at will, as it was suggested and all would be good in Foilville forever and ever.

    Now, here we are some goodly distance down the road and that sparkling prediction has never even shown its face as a workable concept, much less made it into the showrooms of boat dealers worldwide as a product that was financially reachable for the Joe Six-Packs of this world.

    Most prudent folks would recognize this, bite the bullet of humility and retract the hyperbole. Instead, we see something else that has no connection to the forces at work.

    One simply can't always get it right. Everybody out here has to understand that they are going to get some decisions wrong along the path to getting others right. The People's Foiler campaign has just not shown itself to be a viable concept
     
  13. Doug Lord
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    Doug Lord Flight Ready

    ==============
    Peter, just in case you're not familiar with it, Bill Roberts designer of the ARC 21 cat pioneered a concept called "shared lift" that allowed him to put
    the daggerboard forward of the cross arm by using a bigger rudder and smaller daggerboard. Worked well and works particularly well on a foiler.

    http://www.aquarius-sail.com/catamarans/arc21/index.htm
     
  14. CT 249
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    CT 249 Senior Member

    You've got a bit of an attitude, starting off with an insult and expecting a reasonable answer...

    The disparaging comment was a fairly mild one this time and from another page - I never said it came from here. It was just a comment about an "antique roadshow". No biggie, but it followed others like "**** boat", "******* bathtubs", "plastic bathubs" (ie the 9ers), general comments about how you'd only sail a popular boat because of conservatism or consumerism, the normal "*******" calls, yada yada yada.

    It's interesting to see that in my other sport (where I often use the fastest gear even out of competition or training) there is much less of the same sad and boring sniping at those who choose to use slower gear. All of the gear in this sport has more restrictions than many sailing classes. And guess what - the sport that doesn't abuse and belittle its participants and their gear gets huge TV coverage and its only problem is growing pains....

    Yes, this is a partly OT rant, but it was triggered by one more aspersion from the "revolutionaries".

    BTW, if you want to see a revolution in dinghies, what about this one;

    It's very popular among kids who sail;
    It's arguably responsible for the growth in dinghy sailing in the top market in the world (the one with the top performers, most new boats and probably most boats);
    It's bringing new people into the sport;
    It's getting the big-time backing of major players;
    It's partly been created by proper research in how to grow the sport, and partly by long-term success.

    It's called the entry-level poly SMOD dinghy, it's bringing in lots of people, and it's getting knocked by people from the "other" so-called "revolution". Why not encourage boats like this and grow the sport, so that we can grow the fast classes too?
     

  15. peterraymond
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    peterraymond Junior Member

    It didn't seem to get much notice, but I read a statement that the M2 was designed to carry more load on the the rear foil. I suspect I could find it and it might have been on the M2 website.
     
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