"CRUDE" oil, an absolute must see program !!!

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by brian eiland, Feb 22, 2008.

  1. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    Also the refineries inside USA are stuffed, rusting and sadly in need of major overhaul/upgrade to work at better than 50% of designed capacity intermittently.... TOO MANY THINGS ARE BROKEN and in need of repair/rebuilding.... TIME IS UP, get off the free ride... http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/08/sobering-words-from-bob-prechter.html scroll down and watch the 4 videos.......
     
  2. powerabout
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    powerabout Senior Member

    Picken is also pushing the correct use of natural gas of which the US has plenty.
    congress just passed a law to get it used in school buses and many other places.
    This will help, less foreigh oil and using local gas.
    This is a big part of his plan.
    Also get the power stations to burn coal and not natural gas just spend money on cleaning up the emissions.
     
  3. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html 3rd Hour with Jim & John Part 1 around minute 15 and on to minute 31............ is a good wake-up for energy supply and where USA was getting it and current situation.... THIS WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND the predicament confronting USA.... LISTEN NOW....
     
  4. masalai
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    masalai masalai

  5. brian eiland
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    brian eiland Senior Member

    Crude Cassandra

    Cassandra (a person whose warnings of misfortune are disregarded)


    Simmons’ message is always some variation on the global implications of Peak Oil—that point after which global crude supplies wane, prices soar and shortages spur geopolitical strife. The Ukraine-Russia gas tiff is a first taste of the transnational energy disputes to come

    He insists we’ve already passed Peak Oil—but the world won’t realize it until economic recovery stimulates oil thirst anew. When that comes, gird for shortages and $500 a barrel. “There’s no logical reason for the price to be this low. If it doesn’t reverse itself soon, it will destroy the industry’ he says. If Simmons ruled the world, he’d order an oil price floor of at least $150 a barrel to stimulate exploration and to combat rust, which he says is the biggest threat to the oil supply. He figures it could cost $100 trillion to replace aged pipelines, rigs and platforms. That’s quite a sum—70 years of oil industry revenues, at present rates.

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency, non-OPEC output appears to have peaked in 2006 at just above 51 million barrels per day (bpd), and fell below 50 million in 2008. World output inched up to 86 million bpd a year ago only by the dint of spigot-opening by OPEC

    “We’ve avoided shortages only by squeezing every molecule of natural gas liquids, ethanol and biofuels, by increasing refinery gains a bit, by drawing down stocks:’ says Simmons. “That’s how we balanced a market we couldn’t supply.” OPEC’S numbers include natural gas liquids (like propane and butane), up from 4.5 million bpd to 5 million in two years. US. figures also include ethanol, which now contributes 600,000 bpd. Back out such substitutes and crude oil volumes have been flat at around 75 million bpd for four years. Simmons prophesies that in ten years oil will be down to 60 million bpd and natural gas production will be off 20%. He thinks the Saudis are lying about their ability to crank up output and that natural decline rates from existing fields will overwhelm new fields from Iraq, Venezuela or Nigeria.

    Simmons contends that traders were forced to liquidate oil contracts as credit dried up, causing prices to fall. As credit markets recover, he says, traders will bid up oil once again

    Simmons’ critics insist he doesn’t appreciate the power of new technology to tap previously unreachable deposits trapped in shale or under ultradeep water. “Technology is fabulous, but it does exactly the opposite of what people thought it was going to do—it accelerates decline rates:’ he says. “The simple analogy is you’re having a Slurpee-slugging contest. You have a normal vertical straw and someone comes along with a multilateral straw. You’re not getting more out, just getting it out faster.” This paradox is evident at Cantarell, Mexico’s largest field. For 15 years it produced 1.5 million bpd like clockwork. Then natural decline set in. State oil company Pemex drilled dozens of new wells and built a system to inject nitrogen gas. This boosted output to 2.1 million bpd in 2004. Then the collapse: Cantarell is down to 800,000

    Simmons fears overproduction today will bring total collapse tomorrow. A fourth of the world’s oil comes from the 20 biggest fields, 60% from the 800 biggest. In his 2005 book Twilight in the Desert, Simmons asserted that Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field, the world’s biggest at 5 million bpd, was on the brink of collapse. “The world can’t afford to have Ghawar fail the way Cantarell has”, says Simmons. The Saudi leadership despises him. “Ghawar is very healthy:’ says Saudi Aramcn’s upstream chief Amin Al-Nasser. “If I needed more production, I could go to Ghawar and boost it to 10 million bpd.” Aramco, now pumping fewer than 9 million bpd, insists it could sustain 12 million bpd for decades and plans to boost recoverable reserves 40% to 450 billion barrels, enough to last for 15 years at today’s consumption rate.

    I think they think it’s possible:’ says Simmons, “But I guarantee you it isn’t. Remember that Royal Dutch Shell also believed passionately five years ago that it had 16 billion barrels of proved reserves.” It then took 4 billion of those barrels off its books and the responsible executives off its payroll.

    from this Forbes article Mar '09
     

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  6. brian eiland
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    brian eiland Senior Member

    Dear Masalai:
    Haven't had time to review your submissions, but I surely want to.

    Dear Powerboat:
    I think that Pickens Plan is just what we need...his idea of nature gas usage thru the transistion period to new technologies sure makes sense.
     
  7. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    Brian, The problems lie in distribution networks... It would take 10 years to get a system of lng throughout USA to meet retail need (even if only for trucks & busses) and some 10 years to make it liquid so it could be transported efficiently... Australia has had liquefied Natural gas and other forms of gas reticulated for many years so here there is a mix of ULP (unleaded petroleum or "gas" to usanians), refined diesel (not bunker fuel but a little heavier than kerosene), and lpg (liquefied petroleum gas) available at most fuel retail outlets... some even sell "E10" which is ULP with 10% ethanol mix - Just bloody stupid as it effectively removes farming land from food production.... Our home has piped natural gas from coal mines or something and is used to heat water and for cook-top (oven is electric)...

    Thanks for the stuff from Matt Simmonds... He is well regarded as having done his research and verified what he could... All good data...
     
  8. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    hey Mas
    that was a link to part 2
    I watched it and yikes
    are we ever in trouble
    but
    were is part 3

    cheers
    B
     
  9. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    Boston, to the right of the screen are a list of "latest videos" - top one.... hehehe - Have a look at the other videos whilst you are there....
     
  10. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    thanks
    just finnished watching
    was ok
    not as good as part 2
    more speculation about the future were as part 2 was the frightening truth now
    I think they were right on about the part concerning cities getting smaller and being centralized around food sources
    and the production of goods being more localized as well
    oh well
    will be good for us to get back to a smaller more local economy with long distance transport being held to a minimum
    best
    B
    and thanks for the link
     
  11. powerabout
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    powerabout Senior Member

    Saudi is pumping flat out and its going down every day...
    So a guy who works there told me.
     
  12. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    Getting closer and closer to **** in the fan time... play carefully... remember - around 30% in precious metals and do not store inside USA unless you can easily carry it out...
     
  13. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    Subscribe here http://www.theenergyreport.com/?utm...eport │ Carmel Daniele: This Fantastic Crisis to get regular emails that contain links like this http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/...eport │ Carmel Daniele: This Fantastic Crisis and http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/...eport │ Carmel Daniele: This Fantastic Crisis and lots lots more, and then add jacki@streetwisereports.com to your Address Book to avoid spam filters. Many Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and email systems now block or filter email that is not from a "safe sender."
     
  14. masalai
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    masalai masalai

    This is best here, as I regard this as the "energy thread" - - "Where are the Opportunities for Investors with Electric Powered Cars?" http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2009/0820.html

    The Most Important Aspect that most Economists and Analysts Fail to Recognize - - EROI…Energy Returned on Energy Invested http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/stangelo/2009/0820.html This is a significant essay that is very much on the "generous" side - a more realistic evaluation would be that view presented by Matt Symmonds.... Fun times ahead, get a draught horse and a paddock where it can find sufficient feed to provide the motive force for your big gas guzzler......
     

  15. powerabout
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    powerabout Senior Member

    How much bio fuel do you end up with after burning all that dino oil to create it?
    Anyone know the ratio.
    Out here in Asia a couple of big forest felling and conversions to palm oil for bio were stopped as they would have been carbon negative, as in used more fuel than they woud produce.

    Its another greeny political bonus point issue like double hull tankers.
     
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