"CRUDE" oil, an absolute must see program !!!

The ground is shakin under Nero's feet... agian.

Hi Mas, Jim...

Tricky market requires focus, big picture we have a long way to go yet, ATM day to day its a battle ground !?#%&$$$ The enemy have landed some impressive blows but you can smell desperation in their camp. Ooooooohhh this is gunna get real ugly, real sooooonish. I wonder if we can hang out to crash season in Sep/Oct? Mebe we will even go further... but once November is done and we have a new Prez this baby gets dropped on its head!

Oil market is in trouble for supply... did you pick up in on the revised global depletion rates? They have them at close to 5%, we can't plug that hole.... the peeps on the ground reckon its more like 7%... Thats out stripping US demand destruction, new supply and then some. Saudi's look like they are soon to go into full "husband the resource" mode and the Russians are trying to make sure they have their hands on the local European Taps... I've heard nukes and financial nukes (Pooty baby said he was going to drop Fannie debt wholesale if GWB didn't butt out... thats scary!) thrown about in the US/Russian rhetoric... all talk... we hope. Pots boiling away... and the fat lady is still in the dressing room.

You have to laugh... otherwise...

MBz

 

Silver, Mas, silver.... as good as, no better than gold. She has some special features fundamentally speaking, to do with market structure, nature of supply and the way its used in industry. She's an inelastic time bomb... tick... tick... tick.

 

Thanks Heinz, I download the weekly 3 hours of mp3 - hour 2 this week was US orientated but hour 1 was very interesting (for 23 Aug).... as was the previous session.... - trouble is I am cashed out at the moment looking forward to the sale of "the Office with a view"... Jeeeees thae are buying tonnes at a time!!!! of silver! - me I like the portability of gold which in hour 3 of 23rd was suggesting the possibility of 1, 2, or 3K per oz in 2009 - and I was not sure whether that was anticipation of severely falling US$ or power to the rare metals....? or both?

All the rubber bands are out to hold things together for a little longer then PHUTOOOOIANG.......

 

$5700 is a low ball number if they get it as right as is probably possible, based on the 70's experience this will be a minimum, this "event" is bigger in ALL respects... working with some basic numbers and multiples is easy to get to high ball numbers are just insane... that is if they really screw up here, so far we are looking at screw up numbers... but lets wait and see what the new prez does. One very experienced soul who gets things right often says 8K, most of the forecasting I have seen is working on US based data, the thing is this is really a far more global event than the 70's episode... the debt and monetary inflation is pervasive in western and the later in many eastern economies, soooooooooooooo????????

Gold rationing in the ME.... dealers out of Gold in Mumbai, shortage of small product across the States.... it's a market with enormous tension between the futures and the physical, someone is soooooo wrong here its not funny!

All good fun auld bean...

MBz

 

Crude Oil

At the risk of stirring up a hornet's nest of political/ethical wrangling, I have to comment. First, look at the following links..........................

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/Bakken/newpostings/07272006_BakkenReserveEstimates.pdf

www.nd.gov/ndic/ic-press/bakken-form-06.pdf

http://geology.com/usgs/bakken-formation-oil.shtml



The mentioned Doctor Price's death.......here is a link to his mineral collection, which is being sold off, and a brief mention of his health before dying. Interesting.

http://www.minclassics.com/lpcategory.html

###################################

I don't care what your politics are; the fact that this news is NOT blaring at us from every major media source is very telling. My best guess would be that most of you reading this have never even heard of the Bakken oil find.

Follow the money.

The death of Doctor Price (yeah, I hear a lot of you now........."uh oh, a whacked out conspiracy theorist nut job")...........before his paper could be published, and critiqued by his peers, smacks of the involvement of financial/political "problem solvers" to me............but what do I know?

Every single person reading this should ask yourself some questions:

What US political party has historically objected to drilling in CONUS, and surrounding territorial waters?

What Vice President was connected with selling a sizeable part of US strategic oil reserves, and what political party was he a member of?

Why would this news be (mostly) covered up, and what political party, facing an upcoming Presidential election, would be hurt by the widespread reporting of it?

What foreign interests profit the most from our current situation of importing a sizeable amount of our petroleum needs?

What Presidential candidate is widely supported by these foreign interests?

That's all I've got; make up your own mind.

 

Bakken is not easy oil to get on the whole and accessible reserves are, shall we say, disputed. Regardless even if the optimistic assumptions are correct its not enough to counter the current and growing depletion rates for any length of time. Also demand in Asia is exponentially, more than offsetting any demand destruction in the US and the west. The whole equation means that even if we double world reserves overnight we only push the curve out 10 years or so, it is truly terrifying when you fiddle with the numbers and do what if's how little extra time large amounts of oil buy us.

They say that one of mans greatest failings is the ability to understand the exponential curve, I think that is true.

We need to exploit most technologies at our disposal to plug the gap here and on top of that some time in the next 30 odd years we really need a quantum leap in energy technology if we are to continue the type of lifestyles we are accustom to... its all off the back of cheap energy as Asia joins the party we really need a 10x (+?) potential of oil energy source to take us to the next level. Don't underestimate the scale of this problem, a little more oil only buys time to solve it, it is no longer a solution in itself.

The US is 4% of the worlds population and it uses 25% of the worlds oil.... the people in Asia want your lifestyle and are working hard to get it... anyway, you do the math and its easy to see where the exponetial demand growth is comming from.

 

ALL OF THEM!! ,,,,there ISNT1 party any better then the rest,,,, ya some dont want more drilling,,,,but they do want people to smarten up and look at alternatives,,,(actually they dont want us to LOOK at it,, they want to DO something bout it) but,,, they're in the pharmaceutical companies pocket.,, then you have the "ones" that want more drilling,, but wont do anything bout the "future" with no oil,,,, but they are in the "insurance" companies pocket.,,, so do you pick the liar that MIGHT do what you think is right?,, or do you vote for the dude that you dont agree with,,, but he'll make it so that your grandmother doesnt die in a swamped out nursing home?
ANYONE that can sit anywhere and say that 1 party is so much better then the "other" is full of,,,,,,boatstuff

 

Hi & good morning Jim & Heinz, - first batch of "interested parties looking at house at Buderim - the Office with a view" - now to sort out some action for the "The Avenues" property....? A$2.25mil will get both with a 4kw solar-panel system installed on one....

In voting, pick the party you feel you can best "live with" based on your guess as to what they will have to make decisions on? - - - they all lie, - - - they all sway and bend like green grass in a breeze, - - - they are all corruptible or controllable by "vested interests", and despite claims to the contrary are frail human lifeforms....

Weeellll - - - partially on topic - - CRUDE - but got lost in the rest - - thought it meant - - - "free advertising"?

 

Mornin

http://www.gizmag.com/efficient-solar-modules-to-reduce-costs-by-25/9836/

 

Wall Street crumbles as another bank goes under

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/26/2346358.htm?section=justin

It seems to be starting to get exciting and look at Gold/Silver, http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html all a twitter with nervousness. - - - How long will the US$ hold till support expires with a "flatulent raspberry"...? When will I be able to afford to use "greenbacks" as wallpaper - I would like a wall of "Zims" matched - make a nice feature?

Now that is the sort of news I appreciate, - - Thanks Heinz, - - I am almost ready to buy and install 5KW on the roof of new home.... hope the price and availability improve - home will be completed in 12 months?

 

Economic turmoil 'as bad as the 70s': banker http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/26/2346356.htm?section=justin

Action is under way? and on a lighter note "'Longer sex' billboards banned" see http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/26/2346336.htm?section=justin read the comments posted below - much more fun - - maybe "they" should also remove the word "sex" from forms, then I would not have to reply with YES or NO depending on my impression of the relative receptivity of the bureaucratic reader for "Gender" I usually fill that with "male" or "masculine" but that can lead to issues if read by a gay or homophobes????? - - - Load of PC (politically correct) ********

 

looks like the BIGGEST excuse for the "blind people" of "all this new fangled stuff is too expensive to use" is coming to a quick and complete,,,,,,,,,,time for a new excuse to sit on ya lazy @sses trying to convince yaself everything is o.k. or "you cant do nothing bout it" so that you feel better bout being a greedy lazy nothing in this world,,,, i know, i know,, it feels better and way easier on little boys for REAL men to save their @sses, instead of doing something.

 

How CRUDE are those who think that the market can be manipulated and no one will notice? Who is behind it and why is the question...

I am sure the US FED is playing "dirty tricks" and some big players are riding the shirt-tails looking to lick some of the dribbled gravy....

Methinks there is another 1 or 2 movers and shakers with "bottomless pits" to draw funds/kill losses in......

Time to sit on the sidelines and snap up the occasional bargain - - otherwise keep clear as the virus "GREED" is rampant and could be infected with "AVARICE" (if you paid for greed then avarice will neutralise/kill the profit expectation.....

 

One of the features of todays markets are these massively leveraged hedge funds. Where there is large leverage there is always room for short term games, you just have to be big enough to put the squeeze on those that are leveraged. Leverage can turn any market into an illogical circus in the short term. Turns out the bulk of the "speculators" (if we must) where short oil and we had an interesting mix of them scrambling to cover (higher prices) and then taking profit (support)... I am guessing that this might be harder that it looks because of the "buy and hold" nature of the index funds, whom in most areas are called investors.

Once the election is done logic should return to these markets.

I notice Paulson is bailing out with this administration... early!... that speaks volumes. I have seen some speculation that gentle Ben will join him, I don't know how well founded that is. IMO Paulson had a remit to keep pouring oil on the troubled water of the market until the election. Thing is they will let it fall apart in the first two years on the next term, then they have two years to do "stuff" and look relatively better for the next election. "Stuff" might get them reelected but it will be short term and will not last much longer than that IMO... then this thing will bottom past 2012 sometime depending on how badly the have done "stuff".

 

I think I was browsing "Mr Mortgauge" or "Financial sense" looking at links and whatever for something to read, and this analysis implied that their research of (site & report cited) led them to believe that the FED was involved in supporting the US$ and playing with the "natural course in this and precious metals" through 3 trading banks as volumes were beyond their capacity...

Now I am pissed off that I cannot find that information again to have a more careful read.... Could well be ******** support?