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  #76  
Old 06-20-2006, 08:30 PM
Doug Lord
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some evidence

From what I've heard current foiler Moth manufacturer's are pretty well backlogged and a new manufacturer- KA Sails- is making a major investment in brand new tooling from the foils on up in a Moth/ Bladerider One Design. Generally, people in business don't just throw money out for the hell of it: from what they say and from what they are doing KA seems to believe that there is "phenomenal interest" in their new product. So it seems to me that one could say that there is "some evidence" that the most spectacular and quite possibly one of the fastest boats under 20'-the foiler Moth is generating a whole lot of serious interest. To say that the foiler Moth is not more popular than the "boring old Moth" is very likely someones wish as opposed to an actual fact given the level of recent investment in the manufacturing side of this remarkable boat.
Below, is another example of "some evidence" of the interest in the foiler Moth from Rohan Veal, World Champion in the Class:

Subject: Australian Moth Mailing List - Sail Melbourne 2007 invite
I have been asked by the chair of the Sail Melbourne International Regatta to see how many Foiler Moths would be interested in competing in the Olympic and Invited Classes Regatta -
http://www.sailmelbourne.com.au/even...sesregatta2007
This is the only ISAF grade 1 event in Australia, and generally they only accept popular and well attended invited classes, however they said they will make an exception with the Moth class due to the attention it brings.
Courses and races will be short and close to shore.
The event starts on the 15 Jan, which is the week after the Australian National Moth Championships in Southern Queesnland (15 hours drive away).
For International competitors, I will see what I can do about arranging some charter boats.
If you are interested in attending, please let me know on email.
Thanks
____________________________________
Rohan Veal
International Moth Class Association of Victoria www.moth.asn.au
Email: rohan@moth.asn.au
Mobile: +61 414 538 959
______________________________________________
Australian Moth Mailing List
moth@moth.asn.au
www.moth.asn.au
http://redback.adroit.net/mailman/listinfo/moth
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  #77  
Old 06-20-2006, 09:16 PM
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RHough RHough is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Lord
... This is the only ISAF grade 1 event in Australia, and generally they only accept popular and well attended invited classes, however they said they will make an exception with the Moth class due to the attention it brings.
How does anyone else understand this?

That the Moth is NOT a popular and well attended class?

(But they put on a good show)
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  #78  
Old 06-20-2006, 09:20 PM
CT 249 CT 249 is offline
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"To say that the foiler Moth is not more popular than the "boring old Moth" is very likely someones wish as opposed to an actual fact given the level of recent investment in the manufacturing side of this remarable boat."

Doug.

It's not a "wish", but fact. Look at

http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/classes/?s=44

for British nationals figures for old British Moths and Europes. Look at the Int Moth's numbers - they are smaller and not even all of them are foilers or narrow skiffs.

So how can you possibly say that a class that gets a smaller number of boats in total is more popular than classes that get more boats? Where is the evidence that this is merely a wish? Has someone been hacking the Y&Y website to change the figures?

Look at the number of modern skinny Moths in the US and France compared to the number of Europes and Classics.I think there's something like 3 narrow skiffs in the whole USA. The fat-boat fleet is much bigger than that.

Look at NZ's list of active Moths

http://nz.moth-sailing.org/active.htm

13 NZ Moths (one design version of the '40s Mk 2 wingless scow)

3 Scows
6 Elder and Wagstaff skiffs (from as early as '66 - much fatter than a "normal fat" skiff I think you'll find, look at the bottom of page 1 of the pics and you'll see some).
4 unspecified.
6 narrow skiffs

So we have 6 (maybe 10, in the unlikely event that all the 4 "unspecified" are narrow skiffs) "modern" boats and 22 old boats.

Now, there we have hard, undeniable numbers from a Moth class website that prove exactly what was said. The old boats are more popular. How can you argue with them? I think Shane runs the class, he's a fine guy and a foiler sailor I think- is he manipulating the figures to hide foilers? Not likely.

Look at IMCA, check out the pages. The fat older boats (Europes, NZ Moths, Classics etc) are undeniably vastly more popular in the countries where both old and new Moth classes are sailed. In Australia a significant proportion of the Int Moths are scows or fat skiffs.

One hotspot of foiling (Victoria) got 9 boats to the states - just 2 foilers. WA, the other hotspot in foiling history, doesn't seem to have a state title any more. I believe the remaining club fleet is scows. They still get lots of 14s, Skates, Lasers, Sharpies, even GP 14s!

That may not be ideal, it may not be what we want, it may not be a good thing, but as far as I can see it is a fact and it should be recognised.


Why not try giving us some facts and figures and links instead of empty assertions and accusations of dishonesty?
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  #79  
Old 06-20-2006, 10:12 PM
Chris Ostlind Chris Ostlind is offline
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Huh?

Correct me if I'm wrong here, Doug, but aren't you the guy who just quit this discussion in a fit, trying to do the right thing by not hijacking the thread.

Now, here you are, back again with the last word as it seems.

I'm thinkin' of fashioning a character after you in the adventure book I'm writing in my spare time.

Chris
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  #80  
Old 06-20-2006, 11:17 PM
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frosh frosh is offline
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On reduction in active Moth sailors.

My home has been in Perth Western Australia since 1970. Then it was a city of a little over half a million population. Three of the local yacht clubs had as their main fleet, scow Australian Moths. Perhaps three more clubs had a regular Moth contingent but not as their main fleet. Any summer weekend there would be in excess of 80 boats racing altogether and more boats just out for recreation.
Remember that Perth is the home of a lot of Moth development foiler wise recently. (John Ilett resides here). I still go out on the Swan River regularly and look for the Moth silhouette on any sail within sight and it is very rare to see even one.
What in bloody hell has happened? The population has at least doubled in Perth now, but becoming more technical, more elitist, more difficult to sail and maintain, and a lot more expensive, has essentially killed the Moth class.
I don't give a F--- if a few Perth based boats regularly go to Nationals and Worlds, or a Moth were to hold some speed record, as when my son might have been interested to get into a high performance singlehander, Moths were no longer being raced at club level. I wonder how new blood can be injected into a class when there is no club level racing.
In fact within the last decade possibly 75% of dinghys are raced by Juniors.
As has been stated many times already the dropout rate is huge and any solutions to arrest and reverse this trend are urgently needed.
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  #81  
Old 06-21-2006, 07:38 AM
Doug Lord
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Facts?

CT, I'm just curious: where are all the new boats going? If my information is correct and there are three manufacturers of foiler Moths going wide open, just what is going on?
Could it possibly be that the "facts" you presented in your inimitable way reflect 80 or so years of non foiler Moth production and don't yet reflect the rapidly increasing foiler population?
Let's see: the foiler Moth has only been around since 1999 and only in more or less limited production for around three of those years with Full Force entering the market just last year or the year before with John tooling up and refining rapidly the whole time.
And the most interesting question is: why would a well known company like KA invest the loads of cash in the tooling for it's Moth/Bladerider if there wasn't a "phenomenal" demand?
Gee, I wonder if it's possible that the numbers you refer to just don't reflect the reality of the situation; ya think?
-------------------
International Foiler Moth-Prowler
www.fastacraft.com
----

International Foiler Moth - Bladerider
Address:http://www.kasail.com/sailing/bladerider.html Changed:11:41 PM on Monday, June 5, 2006
-----
Full Force UK- Mistress(I think)
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  #82  
Old 06-21-2006, 08:51 AM
Chris Ostlind Chris Ostlind is offline
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First of all, Doug, the phrase you use, "there are three manufacturers of foiler Moths going wide open", hardly represents anything earth shattering in the total numbers of boats being put into the marketing stream. The cash needed to produce well-made tools is not a huge amount of money, but the overall marketing budget can get way out of control in a hurry if not prudently managed.

The builders of these boats could view this outlay as a lot of money if they are just scraping by like most small manufacturers in the boating industry, but they can also view the outlay as a reasonable amount if the product finds a good market footing. Like any business issue, the plunge is a gamble that is hopefully calculated to produce positive cash flow.

All you have to do is look around at the rate of failure for small business enterprise and you'll see that getting to the positive side of things is not always successful.

Yes, Doug, maybe they do have the capacity to make them, but the trick is to actually sell them for more than it costs to build them and THEN, to get more to buy them in succession or the whole thing goes poof. Like I said before, the twitching enthusiasts are already on-board for the cheeseburger ride. What's necessary now is the market penetration into the buyers who are much more reluctant.

I'd guess, offhand, that the builders can, maybe, produce a finished foiler a week out of a small shop if they had suitably trained help who came to work everyday in a coherent state. The boats are complex to build, have very precise lamination schedules and must be assembled carefully before fitting out.

One the other hand, the BIC boats can roll out of the rotomolding oven at the tune of one every 30 minutes or so in full-tilt operation. Another two hours, give or take, for the fitting out process and BAM, you've got a boat. If BIC has several tools operating for each given style of hull they produce, then the numbers increase dramatically for daily output. BIC will also have to contend with the trained help issue and the daily coherence, except that the tasks, individually, are nowhere near as critical in their need for a reasonable amount of experience in the medium.

Baseline, utilitarian sailing is timeless in nature for kids. It's amazing, really, that the same boats that were used when I was a kid learning to sail, can be used to day. If they were maintained, the same craft could go get into the fleet and the kid could have a blast slamming around in the pack with the rest of the kids.

Today's Foilers remaining competitive some thirty years from now? Not hardly, but they will make for a curious site in a vintage display on the beach. High tech boats like these will not be anywhere near competitive within three years if the typical trend in product development continues on existing modeling.

Personally, I view a $1500 computer as an expendable item in the high tech parade, but not a fragile boat that hits my wallet for more than $10,000. Its at this point that practicality and good sense is supposed to kick-in and your senses let you admire the efforts of the foiling crowd without actually jumping-in for the financial beating that it will take to be involved.

Let's use the average, FRP beach cat as an example. Brand new, they run well over $10,000. Even a boat that is nicely maintained and not sailed too hard or put through frequent hairy landing scenarios, will only fetch half of what it originally cost three years from now. And that's a boat with no trick materials, no fiddly appendages and it's one that has remained technologically connected for its lifetime.

If you want your boating investment to make sense, then buying into high tech, unless you are a racer of the highest order, makes no sense at all. That's quite a marketing hump to overcome with hype, Doug.

I tell you what. Why not extend an invitation to the foiler builders to produce their expected manufacturing numbers, their marketing plans and their target market strategies for you to publish here. Ask them to address the issues of how they hope to get young sailors into their craft for future expansion of the niche and how they expect to compete with existing youth development boats that cost less than a fourth of the price of their boats.

You get that stuff for us, without the usual hypothesizing on your part for purposes of proving the smoke is more substantive than the pure vapor that is presently being pushed forth and we'll listen with a collective, open mind on the issue.

And you still haven't answered the question about your status as a parent of a prospective sailing wizard. OR, how the work progresses on the wonder cheesburger AeroSkifferoo sitting in your garage incomplete. That's the other half of the assignment for your credibility; answer the questions as they pertain to you. No hypothesizing necessary, just tell the truth.
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  #83  
Old 06-21-2006, 09:22 AM
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usa2 usa2 is offline
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I would say that KA invested money in the tooling for the Moth/Bladerider/whatever not because of "phenomenal" demand, but rather as a way to make their name known. Probably every boat at the Moth Worlds will start using foils. But this represents a very small percentage of the Moth class.

One reason these people may doubt you Doug, is that you said basically the same thing about canting keels-how they are neccarsary on big racers, how they would become numerous and make obselete fixed keels. Well, today there are only 7 large racers with canting keels(not counting Open Classes).
So you would understand why one is hesitant to fully accept your theories on Moth popularity.
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  #84  
Old 06-21-2006, 09:24 AM
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RHough RHough is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Lord
CT, I'm just curious: where are all the new boats going? If my information is correct and there are three manufacturers of foiler Moths going wide open, just what is going on?
Did you also take GM's claims about Corvair production and Ford's claims about Pinto production at face value?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Lord
From what I've heard current foiler Moth manufacturer's are pretty well backlogged and a new manufacturer- KA Sails- is making a major investment in brand new tooling from the foils on up in a Moth/ Bladerider One Design. Generally, people in business don't just throw money out for the hell of it: from what they say and from what they are doing KA seems to believe that there is "phenomenal interest" in their new product.
Interest does not equal sales.

If Foiling Moths have been around since 1999 and production was 1 per week, that would mean that there are 300+ foiling moths on the water today. Does anyone have some numbers that would suggest that there are 300+ Moth foilers around?

Assume there are.

Assume 25% gross profit on each $15,000 boat for $3750 gross profit per unit. $3750 x 300 = $1,125,000 gross profit for their fleet over 6 years, for $187,500 profit per year.

If there are three builders, each thriving business has $62,500 per year income.

I don't know about Florida, but in most places a $62,500 Gross Profit per year business is small change.

My last service department grossed $120,000 per month, $62,500 per year is nothing.
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  #85  
Old 06-21-2006, 05:54 PM
Doug Lord
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Smokin'

Now this is cool; I posted the pix before but not the caption that goes with it:
From Rohan Veal-
" Smokin' around Hazelwood Pondage doing 16 knots upwind at the 2006 Sauna Sail."
PICT0094.jpg?story=1781
Address:http://www.rohanveal.com/photos/2006...jpg?story=1781 Changed:2:22 AM on Monday, June 12, 2006
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  #86  
Old 06-21-2006, 09:46 PM
CT 249 CT 249 is offline
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"CT, I'm just curious: where are all the new boats going? If my information is correct and there are three manufacturers of foiler Moths going wide open, just what is going on?"

It looks like over 20 of them have gone to the UK; probably considerably more but 18 foilers raced in last year's Opens (check the UK website). More have gone to Europe and Australia, obviously. Considering I think all builders are small, I think you'll find they don't have the capacity to build dozens and dozens.

"Could it possibly be that the "facts" you presented in your inimitable way"

Doug, I am finding it hard to restrain myself in the face of your behaviour in slurring the honesty of people who discuss things with you. I gave URLs for much of that information. Anyone familiar with the rules of courteous discussion would have tried to point out any errors (which I do not believe exist) rather than throw around slurs of dishonesty.

Yes I have made some errors in the past - you have made them too yet I do not accuse you of dishonesty in the way you so disgustingly do.

Of COURSE those figures represent "80 or so years of non foiler Moth production". The point that was in dispute was that whether the foiler was "more popular than the "boring old Moth". My figures were responding to your point about the POPULARITY of the Moth foiler and not the FUTURE popularity. The reason was NOT in dispute. Don't shift the ground now.

"Gee, I wonder if it's possible that the numbers you refer to just don't reflect the reality of the situation; ya think?"

What would any logical person do to find the reality? Blindly believe you assertions (with no facts referenced) or actually look at the active centres of the class by looking up Moth websites? I have chosen to do the latter and it looks as if the numbers of "boring old" Moths (ie non foilers) are clearly higher than the number of foilers. What about you stop making wild assertions and present FACTS (with URLs and other information) to bolster your case?

Here's some more info from the Australia Moth site

http://www.moth.asn.au/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399

From the NSW state titles last season -

"Final results:
Scott Babbage, Chris Dey, Les Thorpe, Ian Ward, Pete Harney, Phil Stevenson, Steve Donovan

Scow: Dave Henderson
Lady: Lee Gray
Junior and Sub Junior: Sam Mc Knight
Fat Skiff: Josh McKnight
Master: Ian Ward

25 entries. 6 foilers, 7 scows, 2 fat skiffs, 10 skiffs.

Last days winds light and shifty SW in morning then two races with slightly more relable SE.
Les won one Scott won two.

Full spreadsheet soon on Aust web site.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:17 am Post subject: NSW States at SMSC/NSC Reply with quote
Phil make that 8 scows. (Kylie, Lee, Jon, Ian, Andrew, Jeremy, Jim, & David). and 9 skiffs.

John"

That's from the Australian Moth site - six foilers, 8 scows, 9 skiffs. NSW is probably the next biggest group of Int. Moths after the UK.

A foiler sailor refers to the club (Northbridge) on that website as "the home of Australia's current largest moth fleet, mostly scows".

http://www.moth.asn.au/forum/viewtopic.php?t=376

So the biggest state fleet and biggest club fleet in Australia both have more scows than foilers.

The last Queesland titles (second biggest fleet) on the 'net show a fleet mainly of scows and fat skiffs.

http://www.moth.asn.au/racing/2005/2005qld_states.html

In the UK there were 18 active foilers in Opens last year out of 34 entries overall. The foilers did more events. So yes in the UK there is a strong shift towards foilers, but it looks like there are many more OD versions of old Moths (Europes, British Moths) in the country than foilers WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID.

Remember, your assertion that I'm making facts up about the UK nationals could have been checked by you JUST BY CLICKING ON THE YACHTS AND YACHTING NATIONALS ATTENDANCE CHART! I think the case is well proven. You provide no figures, no URLs, no facts to demonstrate your claim that foilers are more popular than "boring old Moths". I have provided URLs, regatta results and facts to demonstrate that "boring old Moths" are in fact MORE popular than foilers.

PS - Doug, no reply to Frosh's point that foilers are rarely to be seen in Perth, home of the foiler? What does it say about your idea that they will be enormously popular if they aren't much to be seen in the place that basically developed them? Even there my understanding is that there are actually more active scows than foilers (but I am not sure).
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  #87  
Old 06-22-2006, 04:31 AM
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frosh frosh is offline
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"Boring old Moth?"

Doug, You have admitted that you have never sailed a foiler Moth, yet you advocate them so fanatically. How have you reached so strong a point of view? Why don't you get one from KA as they are going "huge" on production now (according to you). Then spend a day trying to sail one, even a week if you like. Then you will be in a better position to tell us if this the best dinghy in 100 years as you have claimed previously.
As far as the previous "boring old versions", of the International Moth, have you ever sailed one in moderate to fresh winds? PLEASE ANSWER THIS QUESTION SIMPLY! YES or NO will do thank you.
It is my experience and that of many others that at least from the Peter Cole "Mouldie" of 1963 and onwards, that the Aussie Moth and later the International Moth were anything but boring.
To claim that they are/were, is to denigrate many excellent designs and all the thousands of sailors who have owned one over the years.
It also hints strongly at your ignorance, probably due to you being an armchair sailor and self proclaimed critic. Is this why you now specialize in RC model yachts?
Please correct me if I am wrong and I will admit that I have been mistaken in my assessment of you. (If I believe your reply)
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  #88  
Old 06-22-2006, 06:06 AM
Doug Lord
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Dishonesty? Boring?

CT, I apologize that you feel I called you dishonest-I did not intend that at all. However, in the past you have manipulated facts to suit your case and I have called you on it. I don't have time to thoroughly research your figures now but, regardless: I do not believe you to be "dishonest" but merely prone to stretching a point or drawing conclusions not warranted by all the facts.
-----------------
Mister Frosh, you tread a fine line of personal attack in your posts directed AT me which makes the substance of your posts worth very little. When you accuse me of calling the Moth boring you show that you obviously have not read this thread. CT249 used that term and I was quoting/paraphrasing him-try reading all the material before making such wholly absurd comments.See his post #75, point #3
I would never consider any Moth boring.....
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  #89  
Old 06-22-2006, 08:31 AM
Chris Ostlind Chris Ostlind is offline
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Realities

Shocked am I!

Mr. Douglas Lord has apologized for something he said that was not based in fact. Savor the moment folks, it's not likely to happen again in our lifetimes.

I believe it was a quaint phrase that was so casually tossed-out by gggGuest (when he made his single, hit and run appearance on one of the foily cheesburger threads that are scattered about here) when he said,

... never wrestle with a pig, because you both get dirty and the pig likes it.

It's fun when the turn of a dumb phrase comes back to bite those who first tossed it

Mr. Lord will resort to anything he deems fair practice when he finds himself cornered. Truth is, all he had to do from the very beginning was agree that he got it wrong and needs to rethink his concept. The admission would be refreshing, if not entirely overdue, and it would allow Mr. Lord to move on to another spunky topic such as the new, bubble jet technology from entrained layers, without being hammered into the beach to await the tide.

Well, that, or run for elected office where others of this type seem to congregate. One doesn't need substance to become a politician. Just a willingness to spew hyperbole.

Do you have any kids, Doug?

Where's the magnificent AeroSkifferoo, Doug?
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  #90  
Old 06-23-2006, 04:20 AM
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personal attack- who? me?

Hi Doug (I didn't address you as Mister, as I wanted to keep it friendly), your latest post was the first where you say that no version of the Moth is boring. Thank you for that concession. I am not in the business of doing any personal attacks, it is only an attack on some of the material in your posts, which is bordering on unreality and wishful thinking.
Also your refusal to acknowledge and reply to fair and reasonable questions from the other posters is quite infuriating. At least acknowledge that you have read the question but for whatever reason you prefer not to answer it.
I believe that generally the substance of my posts is worth more than very little. However many people believe and have shown the evidence that the substance of many of your posts are simply argumentative with no factual basis.
The apology to CT 249 was a surprise, and his use of the adjective "boring" was clearly tongue in cheek in describing older non foiling Moths.
Problem I have, is that from the perspective of you not having sailed any Moths, you honestly do believe that alongside the latest "cheeseburger" any older version must be somehow unworthy of any praise and should just not make the appearances in the numbers they do at various championships.
Could it possibly be that many sailors prefer them! I wonder why?
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