Lost Keels-Request for Information

[idkfa]

I'm curious, have all the previous cases been a failure of the keel-hull joint, making Rambler the first case of the keel itself breaking in two?

After reading some about Hooligan V, I would have guessed keel, but pic shows a hole in the hull.

[Doug Lord]

Originally Posted by idkfa

I'm curious, have all the previous cases been a failure of the keel-hull joint, making Rambler the first case of the keel itself breaking in two?

After reading some about Hooligan V, I would have guessed keel, but pic shows a hole in the hull.

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Failures have covered a wide range from bulbs dropping off, to structural failures of the canting keel mounting system, to hydraulic failures, bolt failures,etc. If I remember correctly, one of the Shock 40's had the keel strut break with no damage to the internal structure.

[CT 249]

So far the list comprises 31 fixed keels that were lost. Even if we only include the 60,000 boats included in ISAF-listed empirical handicaps (LYS, ECHO, PHRF, HN, etc) plus the 9,000 (I think) in measured rating systems*, we can see that there are about 70,000 yachts racing in the world at a very conservative estimate.

31 losses over a time span of around 25 years is not a very high loss rate. While we are dealing with vague figures, the overall fact is clear - keel losses are a very small problem with conventional racing yachts, affecting perhaps 1 boat in 2,250.

Doug has listed 31 named canters, plus several classes. These include;

Volvo 70s - there have been 22 entries in the Volvo, so let's assume that's roughly the number of such boats.


"All Open 60s" - this is incorrect if one is speaking historically (and this is a historical collection of incidents) as there were quite a few fixed keel Open 60s out of the 44 built according to the class report to ISAF. Let's say that 35 of the Open 60s are canters.

Minis

Some Mini experts reckon there are 200 Mini canters and they don't seem to have many structural problems at that size range.

Shock 40 - six built (if memory serves) with two capsizes due to keel issues.

"Numerous canting keel cruising boats(as described by the designer and/or builder), including:
a. JP 54
b. Cookson 50"

They are certainly NOT "numerous" compared to the hundreds of thousands of conventional fixed keel boats, and their record must be seen in that context. Cookson Boats list 10 Cookson 50s, of which at least some have fixed keels. So say there's (at a guess) 40 offshore-size cruising canters. None of them appear to have suffered major issues.

So let's say that there have been something like roughly 130 offshore canters over 30 feet. About 15, roughly, have lost keels or bulbs (not counting some 60s that limped to the finish).

So conventional offshore boats have roughly a 1 in 2,250 chance of losing a keel or bulb, while canters seem to have about a 1 in 10 chance over a much shorter period.

Of course, these are very rough figures (and the number of conventional boats built is wildly under-stated - there are 4,000 Folkboats and over 5,000 J/24s alone) but they do show a startling difference.

[michael pierzga]

Just remembered a few more.

Tony Bullimore lost its keel in the Southern Ocean

Martella lost keel in Whitbread

Issabelle Autissier, Southern Ocean

[michael pierzga]

Espana92 Americas Cupper, Bay of Palma..

[CT 249]

Martella has already been listed, I think.

I can't find anything that says that Auttisier's keel was lost, although she did have canting keel issues on the leg to Auckland. I think she had other issues.

I think Bullimore may have lost his keel but I dunno if it was fixed or canting- Doug has it as fixed which is probably right IIRC.

A 70' "cruising sled" called Peregrine lost the fixed keel on the way to Key West Race Week in '97, with the crew very lucky to survive- after the boat sank they were swimming till the raft popped free from the sunken boat!

The Murray 60? Bumblebee V lost a fixed-keel bulb in the Hobart a few years back but didn't capsize.

The stats still show overwhelmingly that fixed keels are less likely to be lost, and of course within fixed keelers those with lower aspect keels are almost never lost. I don't know of a single boat designed pre '75 that lost a keel (apart from the S&S Morning Cloud which was destroyed after hitting a bank in bad weather, and there were a couple of other boats that may have lost their lead during dramatic strandings in bad weather).

[Doug Lord]

Originally Posted by michael pierzga

Espana92 Americas Cupper, Bay of Palma..

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Thanks, Michael -and most especially thanks for the link. It is really important that we get links to as many of these as possible.

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Possibly relevant older thread: Keels and Keels Again!



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you know who you are(I don't): thanks!

[CT 249]

Here's some more of the information you requested, Doug;

From Andy Rice, Yachts and Yachting magazine, referring to the Skandia (supermaxi), Skandia (Open 60) and Ecover (Open 60) incidents

"Considering everything that has happened in recent months, it is incredible that no one has been killed, or even injured for that matter." He also noted that in the same race that Ecover and Skandia had major keel issues "Conrad Humphreys limped the last few thousand miles up the Atlantic with his canting keel heavily lashed up after one of the keel rods broke on ‘Motorola’." and that "Frank Pong’s 115-footer ‘Maiden Hong Kong’ suffered a similar problem on a delivery trip from Hong Kong to Manila".

So you can switch Maiden from the "no problems" list into the "problems" list - certainly word on the street was that the boat simply was not up to ocean sailing largely because of the keel, which is why such a vast and expensive boat has basically sat idle almost its entire life. Frank, like Neville Crichton from Alfa, is now happily sailing a fixed keel boat instead.

Anyway, I'm outa here. It's been an interesting exercise and collecting incidents has clearly shown the very high failure rate of big canters - I never realised the rate of incidents was quite that high. Thanks Doug!