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Isn't his board pretty well cranked on its rail for these runs?
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No it's pretty flat, you can see in the video link.
Compare the video shot of Tilmann going back upwind at the end (L to R) to see the difference. You can see by the angulation of his legs as well as the board an idea of the heel angles.
I have never gone so fast, but at that course angle at 25-30 knots or so I guesstimate my board angle 15-20 degrees from horizontal at most.
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How else does the dude hold his track if it isn't?
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The chord of the stainless fin is long and helps with tracking, whether or not it is touching mud. As I recall it or a similar fin he posted online had a chord of 15 or 20cm.
But in 5cm water with a 4cm fin the board could touch bottom at minimal AOA. Unless AOA were rigidly kept under 0.3 degrees, it would have to I think, unless it pushes a significant "hump" of water, which I doubt at the speed.
The vertical lift component from the kite keeps the fin from digging in deep. So does the hydro and aero lift of the board.
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Is there a "ground effect" style of lift...
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The hydrodynamics would be involved, and a little different from normal boating I am sure, including the viscosity accounting for temperature plus extreme shoal plus maybe suspended mud, plan shape of board, etc. And is the board concave bottom, how much does it trap air, etc?
Tilmann is nice to share some things, but has some secrets.