What Do We Think About Climate Change

Thanks Jack.
From a letter posted in that blog, regarding the hacked e-mails from CRU:

"These serve to illustrate not that the scientists involved are engaged in fraudulent behavior for personal gain, but rather that they feel that it is their right or duty to be the gatekeepers of what information is allowed to be seen. I think it is clear that the scientists believe that they are correct. I think it is clear that they use this belief to justify actively engage in censoring their own results (and pressure others to censor theirs) to prevent full disclosure of the uncertainties involved in the methods they employ. I think it is clear that they use this belief to justify attempts to discredit legitimate criticisms, in some cases with the knowledge that those criticisms are accurate. I think it is clear that they use this belief to advocate suppressing free expression on the internet. I think it is clear that they use this belief to attempt to manipulate the peer review process to present their results in a way that lends more credibility to their conclusions than otherwise would be the case. This is advocacy, not science. It in no way invalidates AGW theory, but it does call into question the certainty with which these scientists claim to understand the magnitude of the AGW effect – and, by extension, the magnitude and timing of the anticipated consequences."

See the full thing at: http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/11/23/the-perspective-of-a-scientific-skeptic/

Cheers.

 

Guillermo, Do you feel this will have a significant impact at the Copenhagen meeting due very soon? (have I got the correct venue?)

 

I don't think so, Masa. Dices are on the air....
But my bet is that there will not arise a firm commitment at all from the Copenhague summit to reduce CO2 emissions. Just political blah, blah, blah.

Cheers.

 

Guillermo,

Thinks are hotting up. CEI Files Notice of Intent to Sue NASA GISS

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/24/cei-files-notice-of-intent-to-sue-nasa-giss/#more-13153

I signed up.

You are now signed up to this petition. Thank you.

For news about the Prime Minister's work and agenda, and other features including films, interviews, a virtual tour and history of No.10, visit the main Downing Street homepage

If you'd like to tell your friends about this petition, its permanent web address is: http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/UEACRU/

We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to suspend the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia from preparation of any Government Climate Statistics until the various allegations have been fully investigated by an independent body. More details

Submitted by Mike Haseler – Deadline to sign up by: 24 February 2010 – Signatures: 202
More details from petition creator

The Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia is a “leading centre” for the investigation of “manmade global warming” and government policy relies on the integrity of these statistics. Several claims have been made: that data was “cherry picked” to make the 20th century temperature rise look exceptional in historical terms; emails suggest the unit has colluded in “tricks” to “hide the decline” in a high profile scientific journal, and this unit has colluded in active, secret and highly political campaigning through the website “realclimate”.

The preparation of climate statistics require many judgments: stations move & sites become surrounded by urban sprawl (urban heating) & a judgment must be made of the size of the offset to apply to the global temperature record. The University accepts most emails are genuine so it appears the Unit has been acting in a highly partisan way incompatible with that of a neutral body preparing and interpreting government data. We call on the PM to suspend all further use of the climate research unit until all pertinent allegations have been investigated and any action (if any) has been taken.

http://camirror.wordpress.com/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/24/climate-professor-leaked-emails-uea

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2009/11/global-warming-fraud-somebody-needs-to.html

http://algorelied.com/

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/viscou...rminggate-they-are-criminals-pjm-exclusive/2/

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/three-things-you-absolutely-must-know-about-climategate/

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6927598.ece

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/

Paul Hudson at BBC had emails from 12th October.

"
'Climategate' - What next?

Paul Hudson | 20:02 UK time, Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Comments (9)

Like many of you I've been watching the story at the University of East Anglia develop with interest. I first became aware of the news late last week, but because of my weather and filming commitments couldn't deal with it myself and so passed the news on to some of my colleagues in the BBC's environment and science team, including our environment analyst Roger Harrabin who wrote about it on saturday morning, and Newsnight, who covered the story last night.

As you may know, some of the e-mails that were released last week directly involved me and one of my previous blogs, 'Whatever happened to global warming ?'

These took the form of complaints about its content, and I was copied in to them at the time. Complaints and criticisms of output are an every day part of life, and as such were nothing out of the ordinary. However I felt that seeing there was an ongoing debate as to the authenticity of the hacked e-mails, I was duty bound to point out that as I had read the original e-mails, then at least these were authentic, although of course I cannot vouch for the authenticity of the others.

There are clearly some very serious issues that arise from the information that has been released. Some people are suggesting that spin has infiltrated science. Others worry that there are suggestions that the peer review process has been compromised and those with contrary views are being frozen out. There are issues regarding data; how has it been used? But those scientists that are convinced that man is responsible for global warming are troubled that all this takes attention away from the real issue here: that action is needed to be taken from the world's biggest polluters to cut carbon dioxide emissions. This was certainly the message that came across the morning, in this story on our science website.

How will this all be resolved? Momentum does seem to be growing, from people on both sides of the argument, behind calls for a full independent enquiry that can once and for all get to the bottom of the many issues that have been raised. A recent survey showed that climate scepticism in this country is growing, and this episode may increase it further. Some would say that an enquiry is the only way to bring clarity to the science of global warming and climate change that has enormous implications for all of us.

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* - What's this?

'Climategate' - CRU hacked into and its implications

Paul Hudson | 13:07 UK time, Monday, 23 November 2009

Comments (83)


Very busy with forecast duties right now, but I do intend to write a blog regarding the UK Climate research centre (CRU) being hacked into, and the possible implications of this very serious affair.

I will add comment on this page as soon as I can free up some time. But I will in the meantime answer the question regarding the chain of e-mails which you have been commenting about on my blog, which can be seen here, and whether they are genuine or part of an elaborate hoax.

I was forwarded the chain of e-mails on the 12th October, which are comments from some of the worlds leading climate scientists written as a direct result of my article 'whatever happened to global warming'. The e-mails released on the internet as a result of CRU being hacked into are identical to the ones I was forwarded and read at the time and so, as far as l can see, they are authentic.

More later. "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

 

Well done Guillermo and Pericles,

I hope things progress with due honesty for a change... Take care...

Economics events also seem to be heading for a major "event"... - My guess is the fall of the US$ and the GB pound - offset by the rise of gold bullion and collapse of many who hold "paper gold", gold derivatives, or not fully backed ETF products...

 

It is about time those charlatans were exposed. Hurrah!

 

Some new commentary from JoNova on Climate Gate


http://joannenova.com.au/2009/11/the-cliff-of-political-oblivion-laws-based-on-fraud/

 

Just published.

Have a look at page 22 within this magazine:
http://www.rutapesquera.com/rp77.pdf

This is a shortened version of the original article I wrote and was published at the Spanish Naval Engineering Magazine in June.

Cheers.

 

Nicely done Guillermo.

La falacia del calentamiento global antropogénico

The fallacy of man made global warming.

Best regards,

Perry

 

Bien escrito!

Well written!

 

Guillermo through Google Translate:

Of course the Earth has
heated in recent times.
As it has in numerous
other times, even
at rates much faster. Times
the man did not exist or was engaged
to burn the enormous quantities of
burning fossil fuels today.
Both the speed and magnitude of change
current climate are lower than other
that have occurred over the last 1,000,
10,000 or 100,000 years, not to go too
far back in time. We live in a
transient interglacial period, which, like all
the last will of much shorter duration
that the glacial periods (10,000 against
100,000 years, typically).
The global warming
have always brought plenty of food
and wealth, social stability and rapid diversification
of life on earth. History
and archeology show us that
global cooling have been small
in extreme weather events,
social unrest, migrations
because of the weather, famine, disease,
war, depopulation, collapse of civilizations
and extinctions of plants and animals.
At the moment we live in one of
the best times that humans have
had on the planet Earth, thanks to
global climate and soft technology produces
enough food for a population of
over 6,700 million people, despite
the doomsday predictions made
thirty years. We are the only generation
human fear times warm,
who have demonstrated throughout history
make us richer and healthier.
The climate has always changed and always
will. The sea level is also
constantly changing. Life changes. The
species extinctions are common. The
Planet Earth is dynamic and evolves. The
climate changes are cyclical and random.
The Earth's climate has always changed
with heating and cooling cycles
long before the human race
appeared on earth. If humans
we are heating the planet now
How, for example, periods
Alternating between hot and cold periods
during the current warming
post-glacial? (*) (* Paragraph of the recent book
Ian R. Plimer, Professor Emeritus
Earth Sciences, University of
Melbourne: "Heaven & Earth, Global
Warming: The Missing Science. Connor
Court Publishing Pty Ltd 2009 (www.connorcourt.
com) ISBN: 97819214211198)
The extent of Arctic sea ice,
who had experienced a setback
in the last thirty years until 2007,
strictly natural reasons, again
now recovering apace. Great
variations of ice in the Arctic are normal,
even to disappear completely,
critically dependent on
wind regimes and changes
ocean currents and temperature.
The extent of Antarctic sea ice
leads in turn to grow at 30 years
100,000 km 2 per decade. It is common
Arctic and Antarctic trends show
cooling-warming signs
opposites. The polar bear populations
are not endangered, having
increased by about 600% in number
in the last 30 years, since the
restricted hunting. It's pathetic handling
is being done based on images
of this iconic animal taken out of context.
Glaciers advance and retreat, even
to disappear in some cases, as
I have always done, without the
CO2 emitted by humans have nothing to
do with it. Greenland is a two degree
colder than it was when the Vikings
settled there, so now is
impossible to obtain even the sparse crops
was then obtained, or raising cattle.
The mechanism of accelerated flow of
any of its glaciers is not due to lubrication
Water-based foundry,
as advocated in some circles, if not
mainly type strains
plastic.
Sea level has risen about 130 meters
since the departure of the last age
ice about 18,000 years ago and continues
Moreover, the rhythm of a few millimeters
per year. Recent studies predict
a rise in sea level
next 100 years only 7 cm to 80
cm high. You can even occur
to present some decades of decline
in that period.
The Great Barrier Reef and other
which had been declared as severely
threatened in recent years by a
alleged ocean acidification due
to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration,
are recovering at a pace
that puzzled scientists.
Coral reefs flourished without problems
during the Mesozoic period,
when atmospheric CO2 concentrations
were about 1,000 parts per
million for 150 million years, and even
exceeded 2,000 ppm for several
million years, concentrations well
higher than the current 380 ppm humble.
Hurricanes and tornadoes are not rising
in recent times, if not decrease significantly. Index
Global Cyclone Energy is in these
times the absolute minimum area
in 30 years.
If we look at the history of
atmospheric CO2 concentration in the
past 500 million years, we see that
life has flourished vigorously on earth
under conditions where concentrations
CO2 were up to ten times higher
than this. CO2 is not a pollutant gas
or harmful to life, if not everything
otherwise. High concentrations of CO2 in
the atmosphere are favorable for the plant kingdom,
which develops particularly well
under such conditions. And with it the animal life.
CO2 is a trace gas in Earth's atmosphere,
with concentrations below
0.04%. Anthropogenic emissions of
CO2, including the huge current rate of 26
billion tons per year, represent
only a mere 3% of the natural exchange
of this gas between oceans, rocks and
plants with the atmosphere. The cumulative effect
of all the CO2 emitted by humans
during industrial times is estimated
in the small number of part per thousand
of all global greenhouse gas
in the atmosphere in this
time.
The main greenhouse gas is steam
water, which contributes over 95%
to this effect and allows life on earth
as we know it. No feedback
positive correlation between atmospheric CO2 and
water vapor, as advocated, if not
quite the contrary.
The mild increase in mean temperature
of the atmosphere over the last hundred years,
the order of 0.6 degrees, experienced
over that time oscillations that are
a pattern more similar to the activity
solar and the large temperature fluctuations
ocean, than that of the soft
continuously increasing concentration of
Atmospheric CO2 which informs us
Mauna Loa record, reflecting both
the natural and anthropogenic contributions.
There is a direct relationship between
atmospheric CO2 and average temperature
the planet. All computer models
used by the Panel
Intergovernmental Change
Change (IPCC by its acronym in English) have
failed to predict global cooling
that is occurring in the 21st century despite the
rise in atmospheric CO2.
Predictions and Recommendations
the various IPCC reports are not
conclusions of the scientific community,
not those of organizations interested in alarmed
and politicians who follow them.
Lack of scientific rigor and have been built
manipulating data, ignoring thousands of
studies that contradict their thesis, and misrepresenting
even the conclusions of some
reports of the scientists themselves
who have collaborated with the Panel. Crass
errors and statistical manipulation as
in the case of the famous Hockey Stick, have exaggerated
selfishly trends
temperature records and projected
the future exclusively from the
ascending branch of the last change
temperature between 1975 and 2000. Blame the
the effect of climate change emissions
anthropogenic CO2 and pretend that the
humans can do something to influence
climate declining, is the fallacy planetary
largest ever told.
The actions being taken in the
sense of trying to control climate change
reducing CO2 emissions
anthropogenic, are quite wasteful
useless and unnecessary money and effort,
also unsupportive.
These absurd actions are directly
against the welfare and development
peoples of the poorest countries, while
richer some players in the system
control and emission trading and
to those who profit from public money
to their interests. Even some of those
actions could spell disaster
and a serious ecological threat to humanity,
such as the kidnapping of this
gas in deep water, planting of compounds
iron in the ocean or the making
billion orbiting reflecting glasses
sunlight.
A warmer planet is a planet
green, while a colder planet
a planet's driest deserts and over,
as evidenced by all paleoclimatic records.
Which leads to increased desertification
global level is not warming
overall, if not the cooling, because
to lower relative humidity of cold air. The
extreme desert area on the Earth for
18,000 years old, excluding the areas covered
by ice, spread over an area
total of around three times the current.
The dense forest areas were only
tiny fraction of today. The
planet is not August, if not greening
in this departure from the Little Age
ice.
The real test of the capacity of agriculture
to deal with famine
not come during the warm periods.
Coming in the cold, especially during the
next ice age, when stunning
ice over a mile
thick cover back to Canada, Siberia,
Russia and much of Europe and the plains
North America are too cold
for agriculture. Then humanity and
most of the animals converge
on relatively little land available around
Ecuador, producing more
variegation that the planet has ever known
never.
The air and ocean temperatures have
been decreasing over the last ten years
and astrophysicists and geologists predict stubbornly
that the trend will last at least
by 2040 or so. We should be
wondering how we should act
if the cooling stage has overtones
coming to be true, as seems
indicate. And we should ask
what will happen if these come to be cold weather
longer and deeper than expected
How can we address them to avoid
that could become a humanitarian catastrophe
with unpredictable consequences?
I think that our politicians and institutions,
especially now that approximates
the Copenhagen summit should look
all possible scenarios
climate change and focus as
adapt to them, especially the more dangerous,
it is global cooling.
They should concentrate on finding out as
economically produce and distribute sufficient
food and energy in such a scenario and
prevent social and geo-strategic implications,
rather than devoting their energies and
our limited money to hysterical scaremongering
on a warm current that does
if not protect us as a species. Russia and
has given us a show last winter
than you can assume control of the supply
energy in cold weather.

 

It is no secret that I stand four square with Guillermo and all the other supporters at this site, in vigorously refuting man made warming. Sure, the world warmed naturally between 1980 and 1998 and now it's cooling, naturally. Let us hope that the cooling stops PDQ.

Boat builders will be aware of Nigel Calder http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos...e=ss&index=books-uk&field-author=Nigel Calder

Look at this though. It's the same man working with Henrik Svensmark. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Chilling-Stars-Theory-Climate-Change/dp/1840468157

I am delighted.

Henrik Svensmark is THE MAN with regards to the sun. See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/...eginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/

There will be some who will grouse at this news, (you know whom you are), but Calder is top notch about boats and, guess what? He's clever about climate.

Yes, yes, yes!!!

Perry

 

Bringing google translation into some sense

Let me do a quick "clean up" of the google translation Ragnar posted:

"Of course the Earth has warmed in recent times. As it has done in numerous other times, even at rates much faster rates. Times when man did not exist or didn't burn out the enormous quantities of fossil fuels he's burning today. Both the speed and magnitude of change current climate are lower than other that have occurred over the last 1,000, 10,000 or 100,000 years, not to go too far back in time. We live in a transient interglacial period, which, like all the last ones will be of much shorter duration that the glacial periods (10,000 against 100,000 years, typically).

Global warming has always brought plenty of food and wealth, social stability and rapid diversification of life on earth. History and archeology show us that
global cooling have brought extreme weather events, social unrest, migrations because of the weather, famine, disease, war, depopulation, collapse of civilizations and extinctions of plants and animals. At the moment we live in one of the best times that humans have had on the planet Earth, thanks to a warm global climate and technologies which allow the production of enough food for a population of over 6,700 million people, despite the doomsday predictions made thirty years ago. We are the only generation of humans who fear warm times, which have demonstrated throughout history to make us richer and healthier.

Climate has always changed and always will. The sea level is also constantly changing. Life changes. The species extinctions are common. The Planet Earth is dynamic and evolves. The climate changes are cyclical and random. The Earth's climate has always changed with heating and cooling cycles long before the human race appeared on earth.

"If we humans are heating the planet nowadays, how, for example, can we explain the alternating hot and cold periods during the current post-glacial warming?" (*) Paragraph of the recent book from Ian R. Plimer, Professor Emeritus of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne: "Heaven & Earth, Global
Warming: The Missing Science. Connor Court Publishing Pty Ltd 2009 (www.connorcourt.com) ISBN: 97819214211198)

The extent of Arctic sea ice, who had experienced a setback in the last thirty years until 2007, strictly because of natural reasons, is again now recovering up. Great variations of ice in the Arctic are normal, even to disappear completely, critically dependent on wind regimes and changes in ocean currents and temperature. The extent of Antarctic sea ice leads has been growing for the last 30 years at a pace of 100,000 km2 per decade. It is common Arctic and Antarctic trends show cooling-warming opposite signs. The polar bear populations are not endangered, having increased by about 600% in number in the last 30 years, since hunting was restricted. It's pathetic the manipulation is being done based on images of this iconic animal taken out of context.

Glaciers advance and retreat, even to disappear in some cases, as they have always done, without the CO2 emitted by humans having something to do with it. Greenland is now a two degree colder than it was when the Vikings settled there, so now it is impossible to obtain even the sparse crops which were then obtained, or raising cattle as Vikings did. The mechanism of accelerated flow of any of its glaciers is not due to foundry water-based lubrication, as advocated in some circles, but due to plastic deformation.

Sea level has risen about 130 meters since the coming out of the last ice age about 18,000 years ago, and continues to do so. Nowadays this happens at a rhythm of a few millimeters per year. Recent studies predict a rise in sea level of only 7 cm to 80 cm for the next 100 years. It may even happen some decades of decline in that period.

The Great Barrier Reef and other coral reefs which had been declared as severely threatened in recent years by a alleged ocean acidification due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, are now recovering at a pace that puzzles scientists. Coral reefs flourished without problems during the Mesozoic period, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were about 1,000 parts per million for 150 million years, and even exceeded 2,000 ppm for several million years, concentrations well higher than the humble current 380 ppm.

Hurricanes and tornadoes are not increasing in recent times, but decreasing significantly. Global Cyclone Energy Index is in nowadays at its absolute minimum in 30 years.

If we look at the history of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the past 500 million years, we see that life has flourished vigorously on earth under conditions where CO2 concentrations were up to ten times higher than today. CO2 is not a pollutant gas or harmful to life, but the contrary. High concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are favorable for the plants kingdom, which develops particularly well under such conditions. And with it the animal life.

CO2 is a trace gas in Earth's atmosphere, with concentrations below 0.04%. Anthropogenic emissions of CO2, at the huge current rate of 26 billion tons per year, represent only a mere 3% of the natural exchange of this gas between oceans, rocks and plants with the atmosphere. The cumulative effect of all the CO2 emitted by humans during industrial times is estimated to be the small figure of part per thousand of all global greenhouse gas in the atmosphere in present time.

The main greenhouse gas is water vapour , which contributes over 95% to this effect and allows life on earth as we know it. There is not positive feedback correlation between atmospheric CO2 and water vapor, as advocated, but quite the contrary.

The mild increase in mean low-athmosphere temperature over the last century, in the order of 0.6 degrees, has experienced over that time oscillations which follow a pattern more similar to the solar activity and the large temperature fluctuations of the oceans, than that of the continuously increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 we can find at the Mauna Loa records, which reflect both natural and anthropogenic contributions.

There is not a direct relationship between atmospheric CO2 and the following average temperature of the planet. All computer models used by the Panel
Intergovernmental Panel for Change Change have failed to predict the global cooling that is occurring in the 21st century despite the continuous rise in atmospheric CO2. Predictions and Recommendations of the various IPCC reports are not the conclusions of the scientific community, but those of organizations interested in alarming us and the politicians who follow them. They lack of scientific rigor and have build up data, have ignored thousands of studies that contradict their thesis, and even misrepresent the conclusions of some of the scientists who have collaborated with the Panel. Crass errors and statistical manipulation as in the case of the famous Hockey Stick, have selfishly exaggerated temperature trends and the projecting of the the future has been done exclusively from the ascending branch of the last increase of temperature happened between 1975 and 2000.

To blame the climate change to anthropogenic CO2 emmissions and pretend that humans can do something to influence climate by controlling them, is the largest planetary fallacy ever told.

The actions being taken in the direction of trying to control climate change reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, are a useless and unnecessary waste of money and effort, as well as of low solidarity. These absurd actions are directly against the welfare and development of people in the poorest countries, while they make richer some players in the emission trading and control system and to the ones who profit from public money to their interests. Some of those actions could even spell disaster and put a serious ecological threat to humanity, such as the kidnapping of CO2 gas in deep water, planting of compounds iron in the ocean or the blanking of sunlight by billions of orbiting reflecting glasses.

A warmer planet is a greener planet, while a colder planet a is a driest and more desertic one, as evidenced by all paleoclimatic records. Which leads to increased global desertification global is not an overall warming, but a cooling, because the lower relative humidity of cold air. The extreme desert area on the Earth 18,000 years back, excluding the areas covered by ice, spreaded over an area of around three times the present one. The dense forest areas were only a tiny fraction of today. The planet is not drying recently but greening in this its coming out from the Little Ice Age.

The real test of the capacity of agriculture to deal with famine will not come during the warm periods. Will come at the cold ones, especially during the
next ice age, when stunning ice over a mile thick covers back again Canada, Siberia, Russia and much of Europe, and the plains of North America will be too cold for agriculture. Then humanity and most of the animals will have to converge on the relatively little land available around the Equator, producing the biggest crowding that the planet has ever known.

The air and ocean temperatures have been decreasing over the last ten years and astrophysicists and geologists predict stubbornly that the trend will last at least by 2040 or so. We should be wondering how we should act if the cooling stage comes to be true, as the records seem to indicate. And we should ask ourselves what will happen if those cold times come to be longer and deeper than expected. How can we avoid that becoming a humanitarian catastrophe with unpredictable consequences?

I think that our politicians and institutions, especially now that the Copenhagen summit is close should be looking at all possible scenarios of climate change and focus on how to adapt to them, especially to the more dangerous one, which is global cooling. They should concentrate on finding out how to economically produce and distribute sufficient food and energy in such a scenario and prevent the social and geo-strategic implications, rather than devoting their energies and our limited money to the hysterical scaremongering about a warming that does nothing but protect us as a species. Russia has given already given us last winter a glimpse of the consequences of the control of the energy supply in cold weather."



I hope it is a bit more clear now.
Cheers.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/cooke/2009/1130.html "The Simple Math of CO2 Reduction" - - ? a response from Guillermo would be interesting...

 

What can I say? I cannot criticise what's being done in other countries about CO2. I have enough with what's being done in mine.

Among other amazing measures aimed to reduce CO2 emmissions and so fight climate change , our ineffable government is prepairing a law forbidding to maintain a temperature under 26ºC in summer and higher than 21ºC in winter in administrative, commerce, recreative, cultural and public transport buildings in Spain.

Nonsense is a well spread malady.