Price of Crude oil Versus Resin

Hi there,

A little bit OT to boat design, however:

What is the relationship between price of a barrel of crude oil and price of resin?

Or, how many kilograms of crude oil is used to make a kilogram of resin?

Obviously oil impacts resin production in many ways eg: transport, basic resin ingredients etc.

I know its a very open question, but I think it is quite relevant given the various discussions of "peak" oil production.
The 30% price increase of resin here in Australia over the last few years has been attributed to oil price (and growing demand from Asia), so what do we see in the future when there is a widely accepted theory that oil supply will begin diminishing sometime soon (between 1990's and early 2000's).

Rob

 

Oil supply is 30-40 years from peaking and there is an abundance of other oil substitutes which are currently available but at higher prices than crude.

 

According to the oil industry.

According to many experts Peak Oil is upon us right now. See, for example: http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/031505G.shtml

And oil is used for more than fuel and resin. Food production is also greatly enhanced by fertilizers made from oil. A recent U.S. C.I.A. report (or maybe it was D.O.D, I can't remember) paints a lovely picture of the possible consequences of reduced food production worldwide from a combination of peak oil shortages and rainfall pattern shifts due to global warming. The conclusion of this report was something like this: (sorry, this is from memory) "Never in the history of mankind has any group faced with starvation NOT attempted to steal resources from their neighbors."

Which makes the United States current rush to steal resources around the world make a lot of sense, doesn't it.

 

No credible study of oil reserves done in the past five years has put the absolute production peak later than 2025. The vast majority (whether done by governments, independents or oil companies) put absolute peak between 2007 and 2015. Discovery of new fields peaked more than a decade ago and has dwindled to almost nil today. And there is not an abundance of substitutes; indeed, there are absolutely no synthetic oil substitute products that are manufactured in anywhere near significant volumes. Ethanol and biodiesel are the closest we have as fuels; neither is produced in significant volumes yet.

Oil is a significant factor in composite materials manufacturing, at all stages of the manufacturing process (not just as a component of resin). Expect to see higher costs as oil runs low and prices rise. It is virtually impossible to predict exactly how this will play out in detail.

 

Arguments about peak oil aside...

It's an interesting question. Apparently the oil crisis 30 years ago really affected the price of boatbuilding resins. This resulted in new products which weren't so great, leading to an epidemic of blistering.

I wonder about today's products though. Even if they're made from petroleum it might not be a major part of their cost. These days the payments on the plant, the labor, etc., are probably more significant; not to mention marketing costs, plus a few levels of distribution/retail markup.