Ethanol Prices Collapsing

This is incorrect Fred. Oil is different around the world and daily price fluctuations are very normal, with ranging lows and highs yearly. The problem with low prices are the heavy crude produces can't sustain these low prices for long and the light crude producers, typically being at an economic advantage as well, can eat the pain for longer, forcing the sour crude countries to make political decisions and oil contracts to secure futures. Daily and weekly fluctuations in the market, don't translate to the pump for quite a long time, but you'd have to understand how pricing is fixed to understand these things. In fact, prices have been pooled for a long time, just to prevent wild swings at the pump.

At the beginning and end of every year, global pricing is worked out and output estimates and limits imposed. This year, several factors have come to play, that weren't factored (couldn't be) into the limits and annual estimates, which has caused a decrease in demand, thus a drop in pump pricing. Now that this has occurred, fracking and tar sand production, which was initiated simply to separate the USA from Saudi dominance, will not be viable (current pricing and production costs), so our demand for middle east supplies will go up. Guess what happens to the at the pump price then? If prices can sustain at $90, the Saudi's will see a whirlwind, in regard to regional control, influence over heavy crude production and pricing, help attain some geo-political goals, such as nipping the Shea governments affects around the globe and lastly put a pinch on the USA, who's been pushing the Saudi government for a long time.

Simply put, it's not like a tax cut, which typically isn't paid for in the USA, just a give away. At the pump price drops still are paid for and in more than just money, for the gas or diesel. This next month will be the big "tell" and we'll see how serious the Saudi's are. If they settle on $90 - $100, well, they've caved and we'll continue on for a while (just like the last decade). If on the other hand, they limit production and pricing to $80, all hell is going to break loose and a world wide recession is the probable outcome. This wouldn't be a new thing, it's been done several times previously and for similar reasons. In fact, this could be just a mirror image of what we did some years ago, trying to force some unwanted policies on the Saudi's. The result of that placed the Saudi's in an odd position and they've been reeling from it ever since. Now that they have the influence to make this move, don't be surprised if they try to stick it to the USA as payment.

 

A drop in oil price means less investment and less exploration.
Then a couple of years later in the next economic boom you have an oil price higher than you have ever seen for quite a while as its takes time to ramp that back up.
90 to 100 is where it needs to be, many exporters will have a problem at 80.
Its not 1970 where the Middle east drilled a hole and it went under well pressure to the ship for about 15 cents a barrel cost.
The is so much exploration and new wells going on at the moment that its filling in the loss of oil from traditional fields without people noticing it.
The USA 2 months ago pumped more oil than opec and last month became a net exporter from the Gom and Alaska.
This has not gone un noticed, lots if investment heading your way.
If you used the gas properly the USA could become rich again but if gas is cheap you will just waste it
The other item is many of the exporters have growing economies and are getting closer and closer to just being self sufficient.
The worlds biggest secret is no body knows how much oil gets pumped every day, therefore how much doesn't get pumped anymore either.

PS Saudi is your only friend in the oil business, they just want stability and they are happy to say they will pump more when the price gets high to help lower it.

 

Its actually the reverse, state tax income drops due to lower fuel costs so they have to increase something, this is happening now due to cars getting more efficient in the US and consumption her head going down whilst government bills going up.

 

Low oil price is not the cause of deflation-poor economic growth, it is a result of falling demand versus abundant supply. If oil drops below production cost or profit margin goes too low, then oil companies will stop producing from unprofitable sources. This idea of Saudi driving Iraq-Iran or other higher cost shale oil out of business is not successful, when oil prices go higher, oil producers start producing more oil again.

Bringing on more supply from US and Canada limits OPEC ability to manipulate prices higher, that is a good thing to have greater production and lower prices for consumers. The thing is sustainability of ever higher oil production, the peak idea, which seems to me is not happening. The fear mongers pushing peak oil have been continually wrong about this. We keep finding more oil.

 

we keep finding expensive oil is the issue, there has not been any cheap oil finds.
I think the peak oil thing diminished due to a slowing of consumption and rising prices which caused more exploration/production sustained only by higher prices
PS oil price is not about poor US consumers its all about world peace and stability, all the poor countries are hooked on oil but cant afford it

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lower...nt-of-a-tax-cut--for-consumers-192035316.html

Low oil for consumers means money to spend in their pocket means good for economy.

For US, Europe, any consumer, It is good to see those arab oil producers getting less cash for their oil. We keep more money. If their government run oil companies bring in less cash so then less to spend on giveaways and socialism, who knows how that affects their future. Watching video, reading stories, their oil boon never trickles down to the common folk in Iraq or Iran or Libya or Venezuela or Nigeria.

 

There was execptional feed crop yield this year. As a result all fodder grain prices are in a slump. This directly affects on its part the ethanol prices as same grain can be used for ethanol or feeding cattle/pork/etc

 

Oil prices slide as US crude reserves surge

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-firm-weekly-us-inventories-114655471.html

 

This topic has gone the wrong way from what I was hoping. I had hoped to started a discussion about ethanol use in boats, possible substitutes (such as isobutanol) and how we can prevent a raising of the ethanol limit in gasoline.

Surely the price of oil is important, even crucial, but what I think is more important is how decisions made for the population as a whole affect a subgroup, the boating community. This is way beyond just how much fuel costs, this is a big safety issue, and a maintenance issue.

 

The EPA wants to control it all, all emissions even from small engines.

From what I have read, with computer controls we do not need oxygenates in gasoline like Ethanol. But the small engines dont have computers. EPA persues a must control all emissions from all IC engines regardless of how many or few or what percentage they contribute to air pollution. 2 strokes are gone from the market because they cant meet, and imported diesels from India also.

 

There are still a few 2 strokes available. They have been seriously upgraded but they do comply with EPA regs. Just an example. There are others. http://www.onlineoutboards.com/Toha...v9RIpJDXnquQAExENGr9BuGFuVjRRIzBzoaAvFG8P8HAQ

For the most part they are all small engines. made by Tohatsu and rebranded, like my 4HP Merc. Under the hood it's a Tohatsu

But as you said the EPA does plan to restrict emissions on all IC engines.

 

Except for the oil tankers and container ships.

"It's the cheapest and most polluting fuel available and the world's 90,000 ships chew through an astonishing 7.29 million barrels of it each day, or more than 84% of all exported oil production from Saudi Arabia, the worlds largest oil exporter."

"There are 760 million cars in the world today emitting approx 78,599 tons of Sulphur Oxides (SOx) annually. The world's 90,000 vessels burn approx 370 million tons of fuel per year emitting 20 million tons of Sulphur Oxides. That equates to 260 times more Sulphur Oxides being emitted by ships than the worlds entire car fleet. One large ship alone can generate approx 5,200 tonnes of sulphur oxide pollution in a year, meaning that 15 of the largest ships now emit as much SOx as the worlds 760 million cars.

I recall an article a few years ago,along the lines of one ship in Vancouver for 2 days, produced more pollution than all the cars here do in an entire year

 

California I read is restricting people from running lawnmowers.
Claims they cause smog.
http://www.dailynews.com/opinion/20070320/smog-battle-includes-new-lawn-mowers

It is things like this that make Californians pay the higher price at the store.

 

@WestVanHan:
Good point. Which makes me wonder if there exists a parameter similar to the transporation efficiency (expressed as fuel consumed per unit distance per unit cargo weight), but referred to the quantity of pollutants produced per unit distance and unit cargo weight.
If such a parameter exists, it would be interesting to see how various transportation systems (ships, trains, road vehicles, airplanes) compare to each other in these terms.

 

Well, it would be nice if the EPA could but they can't. Most of those ships are foreign flagged and the US EPA has no authority over them, unless they do something illegal while in US waters, like spill a few hundred thousand barrels of crude. But they can't regulate their emissions. If it is a US Flagged ship they can regulate it, but how many US flagged Ships are there in the commercial fleet these days, compared to foreign flagged?