Doomsday boat.

of course they calibrate the models using all the latest data.

Then they see if the models are capable of making predictions

which according to the report they have been doing accurately for about 20 years,

and of course that time frame will be dependent on when the report was written.

yes its a complex problem, and its taken a while for accurate models of "climate" to be produced but they have, and they are working "just fine"

Yur example of hurricane modeling is one of weather, not climate, weather is much harder to predict than climate as one is an average and the other is subject to edge effects. Deal is we're talking climate models not weather models.

Cheers
B

our most likely catastrophe will be climate related and as such those who prepare for it as best they can will be most likely to last the longest. Albeit in a radically changed/changing world.

 

They're making ex ante "predictions" by fitting the latest data. Sorry Boston, but the only thing you're going to learn by studying the proponents of these theories is the degree of dogma and hubris that motivates them. Bad science is not science.

 

People all over the first world have gotten fat and lazy during the good times. USA included. There is a new world order here, and the rich countries are not going to be so rich. Everyone is going to be a little poorer, of course a few are going to be much richer. France may see their GDP go down http://www.economist.com/node/21551478 check this article. I am not quoting wikipedia here

Greece will probably go from bad to worse, they will likely have to leave the Euro and get back to exporting, and their people are going to enjoy French like 75% taxation.

It is not that people don't want to work, it is that they all want to be overpaid for it...

 

oh, good use of term, I haven't heard of that one in about 30 years. Lets see if I can remember the proper usage.

well they're certainly not making ex post predictions, IE they don't wait till the prediction date then run the model a few times till it makes an prediction, and then alter the model to suggest it had predicted the actual data collected. If thats what your implying. They use a pre calibrated model to make a prediction a year or a few years in advance and then await the results to check the accuracy of the model. Its working according to the peeps who actually do climate change studies.

I've gotta go with the 98% on stuff like this cause I'm not any kinda expert on these models. But I think its fair to say that in the dog eat dog world of climate studies if someones not being honest they usually get outed pretty quick. Take most of the top tier of the denier scientists. Pretty much all of them ( all dozen or so ) have been found to be on the take from the oil and gas industry.

Another good example is Mann, look at all the grief he got for not providing the math in his original work on his CO2 graphs. Turns out his work was right on the money but he sure took a lot of flack over not presenting a complete methodology description.

In a nut shell I've got one camp telling me the models don't work, and the leaders of that camp are straight out of the oil and gas disinformation campaign. On the other hand I've got 98% of climate scientists telling me that these models are working fine as far back as, what was that date you mentioned 01, thats quite a while ago. So it might be reasonable to say that these models have been up and working properly for about 30 years now.

for me, this ones pretty easy, nope I'm not any kinda expert on these climate models. But its not hard to see who's got the credibility on there side when looking into who's saying what.

I just can't picture thousands of scientist the world over working under the guise or dogma or hubris. Its a very dedicated bunch who most assuredly believe in what the're doing.

Cheers
B

 

Your IE is wrong. They wait until the prediction date, update the model with additional information gathered between the prediction and the prediction date, and then run the new and improved model for correlation. It's a common game, and if they weren't doing it they wouldn't describe (cloak) their methods the way they do.

That's true. You've described the real problem.

 

yes they calibrate the model with new information constantly,. but that doesn't mean there fudging past predictions, it just means its an ongoing work to improve the models.

They make a prediction, and see if it is accurate, if it is they know they got there model right, at least in that one area, if its not they recalibrate the model and try it again. You forget I know a bunch of these guys up in boulder and although the models themselves are Greek to me I know how many people are up there checking each others work. If someone was fudging model predictions there'd be a lynching

 

Shouldn't this discussion be over here.
http://www.boatdesign.net/forums/al...ng/global-warming-humans-blame-13720-229.html

 

It's known as "fitting" ...

Absolutely false. There can be hundreds, if not thousands of incorrect assumptions at the margins which will produce a match -- or incorrect weighting factors and assumptions that will fail when a variable is unknown or unaccounted for. It's not that simple -- not even close.

Friedman discusses this today, and provides this link.

I know. Problem is, they're all looking for the same thing.

Is that what happened to the last group found to be fudging the models? I don't remember it that way.

 

Yes ... but I feel a lot safer here

 

Do you know how many thousand litres I carry,or how much I use per day....or how easy it is to get wood to feed my wood heater?

Yes and yes....have you?

Odd,I don't feel the same.

And it's telling how you ignore the posts about easy food and fuel....and cut the ice to fish???? LOLOLOLOL!

You think the ocean freezes nearby,even with 5 to 15 knot tides??

Now you proclaim to know what it takes to maintain my boat? I didn't realize it was a full time job for 2 people,7 days aweek..my I have been neglecting her.

Frankly you are just trolling and are insulting....not a wise idea for what you are planning to do...

 

you guys should take a step back, and reconsider. Cat is an experienced guy in his realm of sailing, ran a tour boat for years and is now building another. West I don't know so well but I do know has one mother of a speed demon tied up in the PNW somewhere. Deal is Cats experience in thee tropics is night and day from yours in the temperate zone.

No sense butting heads over dumb differences that have way more to do with location and style than brains.

I vote nip this one in the but before it gets out of hand.

 

"none of the computer models work", ah thats just to funny. . None eh, yikes, and where did you dream that up at ?


When NASA gave up on the hoax , after launching the A train and analyzing the data .

AS this planet is 4 billion years old looking at 100 or even 500 years of :data" is useless.

The southern Ice Cores , some 20,000 years old do not fit the hoax theory , so are not counted.

"OF course the earth is the center of the universe, we can see the sky spinning about our planet , 100% consensus."

FF

 

Who is to say doomsday is going to be global warming.
It could be:
Global freezing caused by sun being blocked by giant spaceship
Or a large asteroid can hit earth, just enough to block sunlight.
Or there could be a middle eastern war and fuel suddenly reaches $10 a gallon and food prices go through roof.
Or perhaps terrorist detonates a nuclear device in major city , an world total chaos ensues.
Or perhaps somethings as simple as a runaway bird flu kills a few million people in a week.
Or the stocks and money markets collapse after Geraldo discovers there is absolutely no gold in Fort Knox

Point is, the last thing I worry about is Global Warning in 50 or 100 years .

 

Yeah, I agree climate change is only one of many bad things that will inevitably alter our present comfortable state of survival (Safeway is well-stocked).
For me, a bad nuke spent fuel pool accident seems especially creepy, but whatever happens, individual resources and supplies eventually run out and humans have to band together to survive.
Always have, always will.
We're banding now on this forum, trying to help each other, right?

 

I was told once that supermarkets have about 2-3 days of supplies in them at most

That's right - without a doubt !