Dare to Say No

This makes assumptions about the current mindset of recreational boaters that is not supported by data.

The majority of people in the world are concerned about the ability of the planet to support its population. Most see that humans can cause incredibly damaging consequences to the globe; some catastrophic like Chenobyl and others more insidious like the plume than hangs over China and the northern Pacific.

The majority have concern for these things and make choices accordingly. The very large proportion of recreational boaters I see these days have little to no environmental impact while on the water. They are not particularly visible because they do not make the statement and stand out like the 80ft glossy fibreglass cruiser. But they are there in large numbers and having a lot of fun on and about waterways.

As for mobile homes for recreation you only need to do the sums. I know someone who has one - a retirement dream to tour. If you look at what they have done with it over a few years you soon appreciate it is not an economic option. It is restrictive. They always start from the same base so they have to cover old ground before they get to anything new. They can stay in unserviced parks and feel a little exposed but eventually have to unload. Serviced parks are not cheap. They have a lot of money tied up in the unit and it uses about 14l per 100km. It is a beast to drive and cannot get to nice places that any ordinary sedan can get to, let alone a small softroader.

For the 8 to 10 weeks a year that they feel obliged to use it, there is an alternative to have put the money in the bank and use interest to pay for accommodation in 4-star motels away from home. They could use the money spent on fuel to pay for economy air travel anywhere in this country. The money they spend on site fees and vehicle maintenance would hire a small car at the various locations giving them easy access to places they could never see with the motor home. There are no worries about a van aging and things going wrong. They would still have the original capital in the bank and it will be way more than the depreciated value of the van.

So there are alternatives that make economic sense, have less environmental impact and offer whatever standard of luxury you care to choose at least up to 4-star with the spar bath included if that makes a difference.

Rick W

 

Can you actually show us this data Rick?
My observations - and they are nothing more than that - would suggest quite the opposite. Yes, there's been an increase in the number of boats that you are so enthusisatic about. But equally there's been a steady increase in the value of the boating sector as a whole - and by that I mean that people are buying ever more expensive toys (with the exception of the last year or so, of course...).
I'm not talking about new people entering the market. You are suggesting that people, as a result of being 'more aware of their environmental impact', are moving away from from these bigger boats towards 'more socially aware' craft.
I think that people simply have had more disposable income, or access to credit. Consumerism has run rife - just look at the explosion in the number of large flat-screen tv's.
The level of their expenditure clearly depends on their ability to fund those purchases. So where 10 years ago people were buying 40 footers, they're now buying 60 footers. Those who could only look wistfully across the water, are now paddling across it on a paddle-ski.

 

Go to this thread and download the first linked document that Stavi has in post #20:
http://www.boatdesign.net/forums/open-discussion/when-i-go-boating-30294-2.html
It is US data but is solid evidence I have my eyes open. The canoes and kayaks are the only sector that did not suffer double digit decline in 2008. Whereas other sectors dropped by 30% or more.

Canoes and kayaks represent more than 50% of the boats sold.

The last thing you want to try to get into with a new business is a strongly declining market. Existing businesses will run at a loss, as they now are, to try to get through it. You have to ask what are the reasons for it and will they persist.

I have already posted poll data that shows the majority of the world's population is concerned about climate change and I expect most make decisions on recreational pursuits based on this.

I do admit that I get surprised by people who are looking to upgrade their outboards from 150HP to 200HP because it is so far away from my thinking. On the other hand I am not surprised by people trying to turn their planing hulls into efficient displacement hulls. I have even thought about ways that this could be done at less cost than replacing the boat - an opportunity there.

There is a mass of US and Australian "wealth" sitting idle at moorings or in berths because owners cannot afford to run them, are too proud or egocentric to run them as displacement boats or becoming ashamed to use them for the fuel they use - they wished they had made a different choice. It may not be their own conscience but their kids or friends will be pointing the finger as well.

Find some recreational kayakers and ask a few questions of them. Ask if what they are doing is a second choice for their boating. Ask them if they would sooner a power boat if they could afford it to own and run it. Remember we are talking about the majority of recreational boat buyers when you talk to these people so they have the weight of numbers.

Rick W

 

Hearsay, speculative and without foundation or fact. Nonsense.

Hearsay, speculative and without foundation or fact. Nonsense.

Where is the DATA to support your personal feelings to make such "authoritative" statements???

 

I agree, rec boaters are less impacting than the 80 footers. However, you can't really say that rec boaters have no impact. Because all BOATS with engines in general have impact because they're such gas hogs, and they can't be recycled. And yeah, precisely, there's a lot more rec boats. So a 20 footer will use less gas than an 80 footer = less impact...... but if there's 50 of them for every 80 footer guess which boats are using more of the gas and having more impact? And guess which you are going to see more of in the land fills in 20 years? (after they've trickled down to through very last used boat buyers)

I'm not advocating for the 80 footers with the onboard hot tubs either. I'm saying ALL motorized boats have environmental impact, large and small, by nature of the fact they're all gas hogs and aren't recyclable. So as designers, designing for a world embracing "green" for legitimate reason..........why not look at ways to start solving two of the biggest impacting problems inherent with boats?

I think that guy who came up with that sleek looking tri hull thing with the Cadillac wings that everyone says will sink in the first big wave should actually be applauded. Whether it has a few kinks to work out or not, atleast he's trying!

Who says there isn't that magical yet to be discovered hull design out there that results in great gas mileage across the board even if the boat has a hot tub? Who say's aluminum for example cant be used in sleek new innovative ways for hulls instead of fiberglass? Airstream trailers use highly polished aluminum. I'm imagining a boat hull as shiny as a new Airstream and how great that could look. In fact, an Airstream trailer turned upside down IS a boat! But it would probably get worse gas mileage. I digress.

And what about solar? Boats are almost always out in huge areas with tons of sun and no shadows. How about solar collectors that also double as sails!?

See? Easy!

 

The US data shows that the majority of recreational boaters buy canoes and kayaks. These do not have much environmental impact and what I am discussing. Most take their rubbish home and apart from the occasional fart and a little extra CO2 there is nothing else left behind.

Rick W

 

Yes I think so too. Collectively the smaller boats by sheer numbers have more impact.

Well , yes ....unfortunately ...the laws of physics do actually.There is room for incremental improvement in performance I think ......
Ask peole like PAR , AD HOC , etc they will confirm I think....unfortunately.

Yes , there is "hope and promise " there ...still needs relatively expensive R&D...it will happen I think.

 

I'll have a look at that when I have the time to digest it properly, thanks Rick. I'll take your word for it on the figures for declining sales. It's your conclusion that I am questioning. Do you really think that a majority of those people stopped buying "boats" and started buying kayaks? And more to the point, they did it because of some concern for the environment? That little hiccup popularly referred to as the 'global financial crisis' had nothing to do with it?

You have to remember that the people you encounter and discuss this with are likely to be like-minded, so their views are likely to be similiar to yours. The question is whether they are part of a groundswell of change....

There has always been

Again it is your conclusion that I take exception with. These people are $ rich and time poor. They don't leave their boats idel because they can't afford to put $20 in the tank and potter round the corner for afternoon tea. They sit idle because their owners are working - in the office looking out the window... wishing they were out on their boat!
I remember a family friend coming home from the US at least 25 years ago, lamenting the number of boats sitting in marina's over there - many often NEVER going out - some with coarl growing on them. It's not a new phenomena brought about by some sudden concern for the environment.

 

Yes Will i agree with you ....but.....

I`m still puzzled by the fact that the " middle class " guy with his ( 25 -30 ft ) or so twin V8 cabin cruiser is still being left out of this discussion.There are MANY of those..their boats are largely idle because of the cost of fuel.I put it to you that he initially stretched his financial resources to get ( and operate )that boat.Now it`s getting beyond his means.He could put that $ 20.00 to get that afternoon tea.I don`t think he bothers to because he wants $ 100.00 to do more .

What do you think ?

 

"...you canny change the laws of physics Capt...." said in a Scotty-esque accent!!

There is no holy grail/magic out there...only those that do not understand the basic laws of physics/hydrodynamics would say otherwise (no disrespect to the non-naval architects out there). There is always room for improvement, but it is just a slight, slow, evolution..Darwin would be proud

Advances in reducing skin friction, this would help. The amazing work done here in Japan on the Toms effects may yield excellent applications years down the road...but all these 'things' are based upon known science or evolving science. The science of hulls and how they work is not rocket science or magic. As i finally had to stop the endless bleating here:
http://www.boatdesign.net/forums/boat-design/dare-say-no-30261-9.html

As you can see in the link above, some people because they do not know of things beyond their own horizons think such things either do not exist, or when they have discovered some of it, wow, look what i can do...this is the new future!!

There is no magic yellow pill to hull design. The parameters that effect the performance in all its guises are known. Sure, there will be slight modification, just evolutions, but there shall be nothing radical that says "look, this solves the world's problems".

Again, the Japanese have done some amazing things with parametric rolling, by clear manipulation of hull form. But as with everything in life...it comes with a caveat..there is no free lunch!

 

If you follow back through the figures you will see that the proportion buying the canoes and kayaks is growing. This has been occurring for a few years. There is definitely a sales slump in 2008 across the board but the least affected is canoes and kayaks. I expect 2009 to be even worse in the US and maybe on the improve in Australia - certainly for canoes and kayaks. I know Riviera here took a hit. Are they still in business?

The market is moving. It is not the same people buying boats. Younger people come into it and older people die. The market is ever changing.

As I have stated before, and the data supports it, the majority of people worldwide are concerned about climate change. If there were figures by age it is likely tilted toward a higher proportion of younger people having concern. I have seen statements from some older people saying they could not care less if it is true or not because they will be dead by the time it has any real impact. However think about how the media, teachers, texts, internet and peers will influence your kids. In as little as 10 years your little tackers could be influencing your boat choices - I know as a 16yo I was influential in my father's decision because we were fishing buddies.

As far as 'stopped buying "boats" and started buying kayaks' it is not like that. It is becoming cool to get out in the kayak on a Sunday morning. People who do it get great satisfaction and relaxation. It is recreational in the literal sense. For those who can experience it, it is better than biking on a road. I also see rapidly growing number of mountain bikes because they can get away from the nuisance of traffic. These are usually younger people who, a generation ago, would be buying a ski boat now they buy a kayak.

When you look at the data that Slavi posted have a look at the relative initial cost of the various boats. The canoes and kayaks are serving more than half the recreational boating market but at a fraction of the cost. This is reflective of the relatively low resource intensity in these boats. It is something that I believe is sustainable and provides an overall benefit to society. Anything that uses irreplaceable fuel source for recreation purposes is unsustainable.

There is a question on how long will liquid fuel powered boats be viable.

My personal view is that we are closer to the demand for liquid fuel outstipping supply than most people think. Look at how fuel prices have already rebounded and the biggest users are still in the doldrums. Rapid price increase not only creates its own restraint but it makes people think about what is happening. I will not repeat the population numbers.

You can make your own projections on where boating will go as liquid fuel becomes unobtainium. I doubt we will see many coal fired recreational boats. I think we will still see sailing boats but probably lighter and less resource intensive. I think we will see more human powered craft such as canoes, kayaks and rowing boats. There will be a gradual increase in solar powered craft.

Rick W

 

Well, I'm sure that sustained high fuel costs would effect the way in which people use their boats. I don't believe we've really entered that situation yet. In time it will happen. No doubt about it. The optomist in me believes that by then we will have come up with an alternative. (Sorry Rick - it won't be a peddle boat for me!).
Allow me to quote from the link that Rick quoted above, the NMMA's boating stats:

 

Hmmm...interesting.Thanks..

Where do you get all these stats? Amazing.

 

Rick!

 

Hold on Rick, you are interpreting those data in a very unilateral way. You want to use those numbers to demonstrate your environmental points of view (which I pretty much share) but you cannot demonstrate it from the data I have linked in that post.

Just answer this question: do you think kayaks and canoes are the majority of boats sold because people are environmentaly conscious or is it more probably because they cost $600 vs. $450.000 for a cruiser?

Next thing, I have attached here an excerpt form those graphs. Only 5 most rappresentative boat-types are included, for easier readiing.

Take a look at the first one - number of units sold in the last 10 yrs.
You can read several things from those graphs:
- I had to split the graph because the number of sailboats and cruisers is too small when compared with other boat categories.
- O/B boats and I/B cruisers have experienced 26% and 39% decrease in number of units sold in the last 2-3 years, respectively. I'm observing the last 2-3 yrs because they are the peak of the current economic crisis - so far.
- Canoes and kayaks have had 26% and 18% decrease in the same period, respectively.

Now look at the second set of graphs - value of units sold in the last 10 yrs.
You can read the following:
- I have again had to split the graph because the total value of sailboats, kayaks and canoes is nearly inexistant when compared to O/B and I/B boats.
- O/B boats and I/B cruisers have experienced 13% and 17% decrease in value sold in the last 2-3 years, respectively.
- Canoes and kayaks are showing 31% and 13% decrease in the same period, respectively.

What you can learn from these nombers is that:
- sailboats are a very small niche in the overall boating market, both as number of sold units and as total revenue. That might be a first indicator of how "green" is really the boating community.
- boats are luxury goods, these numbers are showing it clearly. In times of crisis people tend to avoid bying things which are not strictly necessary. A 20-30% decline is the indicator of a luxury sector. What really surprises me is the fact that the percentual decrease in sale of $600 objects is not very far from the decrease of $450.000 objects. And that should tell you a lot about the potential wealth of this market.
- The decline in revenue of cheap units is pretty closely following the decline of units sold. The percentual decrease in revenue of high-end units is only half the decrease in numbers sold. That tells you clearly which market is going to be in the focus of boatyards in the years to come.

Quite contrary to what you have defined as "strongly declining market", don't you think?