Don't throw away your paper charts! - GPS failings to come

[brian eiland]

...courtesty of Sail World

A report just out by the Government Accountability Office(GAO) of the USA has revealed significant issues with the future of the GPS world wide system, currently provided free by the USA. The report is entitled 'Significant Challenges in Sustaining and Upgrading Widely Used Capabilities' and was released last week.

The GAO was asked to do the study because of the crucial role that GPS plays in national security, apart from the key tool in commercial applications, including world wide shipping and in all forms of transport. While the air force is in the process of modernising the system, including the acquisition of GPS satellites and the associated ground control systems, the report casts doubt on their ability to carry out this process in a way that will maintain full efficiency.

The report, which is very lengthy, goes on to describe how the likely efficiency of the system will drop significantly in the coming years before suitable satellite modernisation has taken place.

Their report states:
It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new
satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption. If not, some military operations and some civilian users could be adversely affected.

* In recent years, the Air Force has struggled to successfully build GPS satellites within cost and schedule goals; it encountered significant technical problems that still threaten its delivery schedule; and it struggled with a different contractor. As a result, the current IIF satellite program has overrun its original cost estimate by about $870 million and the launch of its first satellite has been delayed to November 2009—almost 3 years late.

* Further, while the Air Force is structuring the new GPS IIIA program to prevent mistakes made on the IIF program, the Air Force is aiming to deploy the next generation of GPS satellites 3 years faster than the IIF satellites. GAO’s analysis found that this schedule is optimistic, given the program’s late start, past trends in space acquisitions, and
challenges facing the new contractor. Of particular concern is leadership for GPS acquisition, as GAO and other studies have found the lack of a single point of authority for space programs and frequent turnover in program managers have hampered requirements setting, funding stability, and resource allocation.

* If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of GPS IIIA satellites, there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to. Such a gap in capability could have wide-ranging impacts on all GPS users, though there are measures the Air Force and others can take to plan for and
minimize these impacts.

In addition to risks facing the acquisition of new GPS satellites, the Air Force has not been fully successful in synchronizing the acquisition and development of the next generation of GPS satellites with the ground control and user equipment, thereby delaying the ability of military users to fully utilize new GPS satellite capabilities. Diffuse leadership has been a contributing factor, given that there is no single authority responsible for synchronizing all
procurements and fielding related to GPS, and funding has been diverted from ground programs to pay for problems in the space segment.

DOD and others involved in ensuring GPS can serve communities beyond the military have taken prudent steps to manage requirements and coordinate among the many organizations involved with GPS. However, GAO identified challenges to ensuring civilian requirements and ensuring GPS compatibility with other new, potentially competing global space-based positioning, navigation, and timing systems.

What GAO Recommends:

GAO’s recommendations include that the Secretary of Defense appoint a single authority to oversee development of GPS space, ground control, and user equipment assets, to ensure they are synchronized, well executed, and potential disruptions are minimized. DOD concurred with our recommendations.

For the full report, click here (http://www.gao.gov/htext/d09325.html?nid=56812)

[Zed]

You assume that a lot of these 'navigators' had paper charts or can navigate without buttons! LOL There are going to be some Mary Celeste's getting around the joint if GPS fails!

Won't this be interesting if it breaks!

[pistnbroke]

so the americans ar not going to be able to guide missiles onto target or control a remote drone in afganistan from texas ....I doubt it

[Zed]

I don't know that maintaining the military side of the system necessarily means civilian access will be available.

[PAR]

This has been coming down the pipe for a few years now. Even the worst case puts real difficulty in about 5 years. Of course this assumes we'll not replace aging platforms (fast enough) with new satellites. This couldn't be further from reality. With the advent of GPS, there's no way the multitude of GPS dependant industries will permit this to occur, there's just too much money at stake, particularly with the number of delivery systems available world wide. Regardless of the military's inability to get it's head out of it butt with respect to over sight, new satellites will get launched.

In short, don't hold your breath and look for falling hardware. Real world GPS devices will do just fine, possibly with a few areas of less then great coverage. Now the military on the other hand has some real worrying to do, as it's accuracy and coordination requirements are much higher, but the general civilian use devices will fair well.

Yes, we'll be able to guide missiles to target, but they might hit the window sash, instead of flying right into the room.

[Zed]

I was told that the only difference between military and civilian GPS was that civilian units cannot decode and correct a random timing error that is thrown into the signal. This has the effect of limiting the civilian units accuracy to a given circumference from the reported location.

[mydauphin]

I was told that the only difference between military and civilian GPS was that civilian units cannot decode and correct a random timing error that is thrown into the signal. This has the effect of limiting the civilian units accuracy to a given circumference from the reported location.

True, but over years they have increase civilian version to be almost as good as military. They can also vary accuracy of civil version by area so that in a war or crisis they can alter it. Since the beginning I realized how dumb it is to have most of our military gps based. It is so easy to block gps signals either from orbit or locally via ECM that it make no sense for military. I hope that ballistic missiles and strategic bombers are still inertial navigation based.

I hope to fit a vhf/am/fm direction finder on my boat some day as a backup. Sorry to see loran go. I can believe that it cost more to run thatn satellites. I always carry some paper charts to sit down and plan even with computer on my lap. I also use goggle earth alot. Wish I could download it all.

Does anyone make some kind of inertial navigation for boats?

[Zed]

I remember that in the first Gulf War they ran short of military spec units so they gave the guys civilian units and switch off "selective availability"... all of a sudden all our civi unit where pin point accurate! Selective availability does not really sound like it describes a "random timing error", but that's what the GPS suppliers told us....???!

[mydauphin]

Yeah, they can control it anyway they want. They can even use it to fool you into think your in wrong location. I have also heard that they are way to determine your location via .... Can't say more...

[Zed]

LOL... yeah right!

[mydauphin]

Yeah... really...

[BeauVrolyk]

I mostly navigate by looking where I'm going and knowing about where I'm headed. Sure, GPS is a nice toy. But, I can't really imagine ever taking a long trip with that as my only form of navigation. That said, I usually carry three of the things (GPSs), and leave my sextant and charts in their nice waterproof boxes.

[Zed]

GPS doesn't transmit, how can they get a fix on it? Its not like a cell phone! Also if they are fooling with position they couldn't do it with any precision, they'd have to jigger with a whole satellite, which would effect a whole swath of people.

That is not making a whole lot of sense to me, you'd really need to explain the how before I buy that one.

Cheers
Z

[BeauVrolyk]

GPS doesn't transmit, how can they get a fix on it? Its not like a cell phone! Also if they are fooling with position they couldn't do it with any precision, they'd have to jigger with a whole satellite, which would effect a whole swath of people.

That is not making a whole lot of sense to me, you'd really need to explain the how before I buy that one.

Cheers
Z

You don't really need to move the satellite. If you think about it, you can vary the shape of the electromagnetic wave to make it "look" like the satellite is someplace a little different. This is how you spoof a GPS into thinking it's in a different place or time. Also, a GPS receiver will lock onto the strongest signals it hears - those might not be from a satellite at all - they might be from a transmitter on a plane, boat, spaceship, blimp, large bird, whatever.

You are right, your GPS receiver doesn't transmit anything, so a pure receiver is very hard to "detect" - not impossible but hard. However, the GPS in your cell phone is an entirely different matter. If you're really concerned, be certain to remove the battery from your cell phone, the "off" switch is just a bit of software that can do whatever the programmer tells it to.

B-)

[Zed]

Move the satellite? Cripes mate I was thinking about just altering the time data or something a nerd with a keyboard could do in a few secs. Still whatever they do will affect a whole swath of people... as far as I know GPS has no unique signature that it returns/broadcasts so identifying or doing anything with an individual unit (positioning?) is just not possible. A moblie phone on the other hand is as you say a different thing.

I need to have a spurt explain why I'm wrong.... cause my dumb bum can't figure my little GPS beaming position data back to a satellite or anything else that would be practically useful. I dunno, mebe my foil hat is just put on wrong?

[Luckless]

If you have a sensitive enough receiver, then you can pick up the back wash signal from another receiver. That is, the field echo produced by a receiver picking up the original field.

With the right gear, you can pin point a GPS unit a few miles away. It is funny as such technology was actually far easier and more reliable around the Second World War than it is today. Why? Because now we have massive signal pollution, and it has become harder and harder to detect against the massive amounts of interference.

[Frosty]

Is it April the 1st today?

[Luckless]

It is all based on EM fields.
What is a transmitter? Current run through a wire to produce and EM field.

What is a receiver? Current running through a wire, produced by an EM field.

When you pick up a signal, you also produce a slight back echo, a greatly reduced, and slightly distorted signal of what you have picked up. With the right gear you can detect this second signal and track it, but because it is so weak, you have to be fairly close to pick it up, and the original signal has to be fairly powerful to have much chance of detecting it easily.

[Zed]

If you have a sensitive enough receiver, then you can pick up the back wash signal from another receiver. That is, the field echo produced by a receiver picking up the original field.

Yeah OK I buy that if you are the only guy in the desert with a GPS unit and they are just over the ridge looking for you, but from space and, as you say, from among 10's, 100's... 1000's of units operating in any given area where none of them has a unique signature. Nah... where is my tinfoil hat!... I can't say I'm signing on for that one!

[mydauphin]

Yeah OK I buy that if you are the only guy in the desert with a GPS unit and they are just over the ridge looking for you, but from space and, as you say, from among 10's, 100's... 1000's of units operating in any given area where none of them has a unique signature. Nah... where is my tinfoil hat!... I can't say I'm signing on for that one!

It can be done, that is why other countries want to develop their own systems. The US controls gps, and unfortunately is very dependent on it. It is a great system but it was not meant to survive an attack. As a matter a fact it is easy to knock it out at a local level. Of course you might get an HARM missile sent your way .... Yes, it is much easier to jam than track.

I can't tell you much more but there is much more. The NSA and other agencies has capabilities that go beyond what you think. They didn't spend billions to guess at things. They just don't share info. They know where a VHF receiver is without you transmitting, that is old technology, the German developed it during WWII.

[marshmat]

I hope I'm not unique here in not owning a GPS. For what I do (inland lakes, rivers and canals), the only effective means of navigation is a chart and your eyes. (On many of these lakes, there aren't even charts.) The next boat will have one, but more for updating the DSC VHF than as a primary navigation system.

LORAN is still going strong here in Canada; the LORAN charts are still available and the Coast Guard publishes the ASF corrections in the Radio Aids every year. So many commercial ships and fishing boats still use it that they can't shut it down yet. The receivers are hard to find, though.

Tracking down all sorts of radio devices from a distance is quite possible with the right equipment. I recall hearing that this was one of the major flaws of the USCG's Project Deepwater retrofits- a heap of improperly shielded wiring in what should have been high-security comm systems ended up radiating so much EM noise that you could intercept supposedly encrypted communications with nothing more than a directional antenna and a properly tuned receiver.

The selective availability feature of the NAVSTAR GPS system has been disabled since 2000, but the US military reserves the right to turn it back on at any time (although many other departments are strongly opposed to any attempt to do so). When active, SA introduces small distortions in the timing of some of the GPS signals according to a complex cryptographic algorithm, seeded by a numeric key that changes daily. Having a military receiver is not enough to eliminate the SA distortion; you also need that day's secret key. (The US government says that all new NAVSTAR GPS satellites will not be fitted with SA hardware.)

Alternative satellite navigation systems:
- Russia's GLONASS system is supposedly in the process of being restored to full operation, with some help from India.
- China is building a global system, COMPASS, expected to be operational around 2015.
- The EU's Galileo system is scheduled for worldwide coverage by 2013, with sub-metre resolution and no selective availability system.

There have been rumours of combined NAVSTAR/Galileo receivers in development that will be able to take signals from either or both systems. GPS III and Galileo are, at present, expected to be interoperable.

[Vettmech]

I say people driving around in cars dont need GPS so take them away. Too bad get a map, pull the blueberry out of your ear and blackberry out of your ass and learn how to read billboards road signs. Truckdrivers need GPS for an effiecency issue, boaters and aircraft for a safety issue. But those lost people driving around in circles because they will never know where they are anyways... they dont need GPS ..To them I say plan your car trip before yu leave the house...know where you are going...if you want to be "hightech" try "map quest" It works pretty good half the time...the other half of the time you will be lost and probably feeling like the good old days have returned.
my opinion thats all

[mydauphin]

I think a better question might be what are possible substitutes. Is Loran still around? What about using VHF radio direction beacons?... Are all these gone?

Is anyone making a intertial navigation system that wil fit in smaller boat?

[BeauVrolyk]

I have been reading through this forum for a while and I'm really confused. What's the deal? Why does anyone care what another person uses for navigations. Why does anyone say something like "pull the ___ out of your ass..." ?? What motivates that??

There may be some way that some government might "track" someone with a radio or GPS, but why does this elicit all this anger and all this bitching??

I must admit I am baffled. I had thought that sailors would use whatever technology was available and when it stopped working they'd move on. What's with this anger???

You guys need to go sailing more and spend less time on the net.

Just my opinion,

Beau

[BeauVrolyk]

I think a better question might be what are possible substitutes. Is Loran still around? What about using VHF radio direction beacons?... Are all these gone?

Is anyone making a intertial navigation system that wil fit in smaller boat?

VHF works fine, you just need a chart that shows where the radio transmitters are located.

B

[mark775]

DGPS does send a signal.

[mydauphin]

I have been reading through this forum for a while and I'm really confused. What's the deal? Why does anyone care what another person uses for navigations. Why does anyone say something like "pull the ___ out of your ass..." ?? What motivates that??

There may be some way that some government might "track" someone with a radio or GPS, but why does this elicit all this anger and all this bitching??

I must admit I am baffled. I had thought that sailors would use whatever technology was available and when it stopped working they'd move on. What's with this anger???

You guys need to go sailing more and spend less time on the net.

Just my opinion,

Beau


Real Boaters are always looking for options in price, redundancy and just in case of nuclear or other disaster a fall back position. Just the same reasons I have flotation suits, life vest, several vhf, 3 gps, a sextant, etc...

Yes. I wish could spend more time boating and less on computer...

[BeauVrolyk]

Real Boaters are always looking for options in price, redundancy and just in case of nuclear or other disaster a fall back position. Just the same reasons I have flotation suits, life vest, several vhf, 3 gps, a sextant, etc...

Yes. I wish could spend more time boating and less on computer...

Yup, one of our worst traits. When I got back from cruising last time I realized that I had hauled TWO sets of sight reduction tables along for 10,000 miles, along with TWO sextants, and never touched any of it. I really do think one spare would have been enough, as I had two GPS units.

We Americans in particular are far too concerned about dramatic disasters, like nuclear war etc... that you mentioned, and don't spend near enough time on the stuff that is most likely to happen.

Number of sailors lost at sea due to a failure of the GPS system - zero so far as I know.

Number of sailors lost at sea due to their own lack of practice sailing and the preparation of their boat - quite a large number.

We're are, as a group, talking about the wrong stuff - if one were actually worried about being safer.

Just my 2 cents.

[yipster]

"Anything worth doing is worth doing to excess"

sure you'r rite yet in this case i felt like mentioning your bottom line :D

[BeauVrolyk]

sure you'r rite yet in this case i felt like mentioning your bottom line :D

Point taken B-))

[mydauphin]

I think overall GPS cause more grounding than they avoid. I had the hard time teaching my son-in-law to look at the color of the water, he kept looking at gps. He ran aground. Now he looks out more than in.

===============

On a another similar story. I used to work for West marine at one point selling electronics. People would come in all the time for vhf, chartplotters etc... One day a large spunky guy came in looking for the best gps for his 45 foot sportfisher. He want to make sure that he could navigate all around in South Biscayne Bay, Miami, FL. Most of south Biscayne Bay you can walk across, no more than 3 feet at low tide. So if you leave channels your SOL.
Anyway, sold him unit, recommend he get some Coast Guard Aux class and off he went.

Two weeks later he came back to sign up for class, TowUS annual membership, I asked him how was GPS. It said it was fine, boat however, it ran aground at 30 knots and was presently needing new shafts, rudders, props, etc...

GPS give a false sense of security... Charts can be wrong. Looking is more important... Check points on horizon when you leave.

Another story, I was out of North Miami, many years ago before ridiculous new skyline everywhere. I went out to Bahamas and had electrical problems.
I isolate problem and turn around. I had lost GPS and radio. But I figured I just turn around and be back to same place. I didn't realize we drifted with current about 25 miles and now I was in Dania. It took a while to figure out where I was. I wasn't paying attention because of GPS and then needed but it failed.

So now if I go offshore, I have 3 gps, vhfs, cellphones, compasses....etc...

Want another story about dual compasses.... lol

[yipster]

hello again, yes looking out comes first but who doesnt use a carsatnav these day's? same for boats.
apart from fixed and handheld compas and gps you can add an extra autopilot with girocompas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrocompass) in the bilge's low CG
hooked to a bought version of tsunami (http://www.google.nl/search?q=transas+tsunami&hl=nl&start=0&sa=N) satnav with dongle on a laptop, never had a problem till it got stolen