New nav hazard: Parked tankers?

[marshmat]

This from the Toronto Star today. It looks like a few commodity speculators are chartering VLCCs for a few months, loading the tanks to the brim, and paying the crew to sit at sea and watch movies for a few months until the oil prices pick up again. This isn't exactly a new strategy, but it seems there are a lot more speculators trying to pull it off this time:

Canny traders stow cheap oil at sea
Crude stored in tankers to cash in on next year's contract delivery prices
Jan 08, 2009 04:30 AM
Tyler Hamilton (http://www.thestar.com/opinion/columnists/94629)
Energy Reporter

For sale: two million barrels of offshore oil. No drilling required.
General expectations for a rebound in oil demand during the second half of the year have opened the door for traders to play a high-stakes game of arbitrage.
They're chartering massive vessels known as supertankers in growing numbers to capitalize on unusually large spreads between current oil prices and prices being paid for future deliveries.
For example, oil for December 2009 delivery is priced $15 (U.S.) a barrel above current levels.
To capitalize on this, the traders are stockpiling huge volumes of oil at today's prices, while locking in a profit by contracting to make future deliveries at richer prices.
Their customers are willing to pay future premiums based on expectations that oil's supply-and-demand picture will eventually tighten as the economy regains health.
Oil prices have been rebounding in recent weeks, but they were clobbered yesterday as renewed fears of a glut surfaced. Crude prices for delivery next month fell 12 per cent, the largest drop in seven years, after a U.S. report showed an unexpectedly big jump in supply.
But stowing crude at sea is "exactly what we'd expect to happen if people today think the price is too low," said Joseph Doucet, a professor of energy policy at the University of Alberta.
He said traders renting tankers for arbitrage purposes are taking a chance, but there's nothing illegal about stockpiling. "What you're not allowed to do is collude with another party to influence prices."
A barrel of sweet crude for February delivery plunged to $42.63 (U.S.) on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, after the report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed commercial crude inventories last week increased by 6.68 million barrels.
Still, the prevailing economics have traders excited by an opportunity called "contango" – a situation when a non-perishable commodity such as oil gets more expensive as deliveries extend into the future.
Based on yesterday's closing price, buyers of oil are prepared to pay $47.39 a barrel for March delivery, $54.41 a barrel for July delivery and finally $59.49 a barrel for delivery in January 2010.
Analysts say the opportunity to buy oil at less than $43 and sell it in the futures market for 40 per cent more, for delivery a year from now, is too profitable to resist.
It's just one of many ways traders play the market, and part of the reason why it's so difficult to get an accurate handle on the mysterious and often volatile movement of day-to-day oil prices. "If I could do that, I'd be on the beach someplace," joked Doucet.
Frontline Ltd., one of the world's largest owners of supertankers, revealed yesterday that oil traders have tried to charter as many as 10 vessels. That's on top of about 25 supertankers reportedly already reserved for storage purposes.
The big tankers, if stood on end, would be as tall as the 102-storey Empire State Building in New York.
"The carriers hold about 2 million barrels of crude and traders are seeking to lease the ships for three to nine months," wrote Addison Armstrong, director of research at Stamford, Conn.-based Tradition Energy, in a research note.
Even including storage, insurance and other costs, the potential payoff is generous. Traders can also take advantage of bargain charter rates prevailing for supertankers.
The practice of physically storing oil at sea isn't new but often stirs up controversy, particularly when pump prices climb and commodity speculators attract anger.
It was reported last month that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating energy traders who store oil in tankers as part of a larger study of wild volatility in the market.
With files from Star wire services

[Meanz Beanz]

Why are they "speculators" ? Shell is buying oil because its being sold cheaper than they can produce it in some regions... this is a fire sale driven by credit issues... its not the real cost of oil. Buying and storing it is merely prudent at these levels!

[eponodyne]

Why are they "speculators" ? Shell is buying oil because its being sold cheaper than they can produce it in some regions... this is a fire sale driven by credit issues... its not the real cost of oil. Buying and storing it is merely prudent at these levels!
If somebody told me he had doen that, I would knock him off his barstool and I tell ya what, Jack, they would have to hit me with a fire extinguisher to the head to get me to stop. Anybody who can afford to do that does not need to **** the rest of us just so he can get richer.

Pardon my French, but *******.

[masalai]

It is a simple matter of mathematics and opportunity - the oil from the well-head was UNDERPRICED and the futures contracts just in time for delivery were VERY attractive so pre-sell to the future and charter the mobile fuel supply and buy on spot.... - deliver for a guaranteed profit - If you had the readies, I am sure you would do exactly the same - the wanking speculators just set up the opportunity by going the wrong way with paper and computer screens in their glass & plastic towers of fantasy.....

[Meanz Beanz]

If somebody told me he had doen that, I would knock him off his barstool and I tell ya what, Jack, they would have to hit me with a fire extinguisher to the head to get me to stop. Anybody who can afford to do that does not need to **** the rest of us just so he can get richer.

Pardon my French, but *******.

I think you need to think about what is happening here again.

[eponodyne]

Nah. In a circumstance like that, if ya think about it, you'll never throw that first punch. Sometimes it's important to operate on instinct.

They are hoarding a commodity every bit as valuable and necessary as wheat.

[Meanz Beanz]

Hoarding.... no really you don't get it do you?

[eponodyne]

Put all the fancy names on it you want; rationalize that "they're just out to make money," and I still won't budge an inch. These people are tying up the supply of badly-needed oil by parking ships?!?!? That means that while the vessel is sitting idle, it's effectively out of service. It can't drop its cargo and haul more oil

So *******s profit and the rest of us suffer. I don't care if it's strictly speaking "Legal," It's immoral as hell and I stand by my words.

[Jimbo1490]

Some people are perfectly *OK* when market forces drive prices downward, even below profitability, as happened for quite a few years during the 80's all the way to 2004-about 15 years total. But if market forces drive prices up, these SAME PEOPLE get angry and full of self-righteous indignation, labeling the oil companies/speculators/traders etc as 'immoral'. The hypocrisy of this stance seems to elude them, as is based solely on a very ugly human emotion; JEALOUSY

In the end, if some choose to 'hoard' oil awaiting the next price peak, such 'hoarding' will be on the whole beneficial, since more oil will be made available during the price peak period than would be available if the oil were not stockpiled. Furthermore, the price 'trough' is the result of among other things, falling demand. Yet this falling demand is itself somewhat mitigated by the stockpiling, which creates a demand for the commodity which might not otherwise exist during the 'trough' period.

In the end, stockpiling tends to help stabilize, rather than inflate the commodity price.

Jimbo

[Meanz Beanz]

Put all the fancy names on it you want; rationalize that "they're just out to make money," and I still won't budge an inch. These people are tying up the supply of badly-needed oil by parking ships?!?!? That means that while the vessel is sitting idle, it's effectively out of service. It can't drop its cargo and haul more oil

So *******s profit and the rest of us suffer. I don't care if it's strictly speaking "Legal," It's immoral as hell and I stand by my words.

I think you really need to read a little more and educate yourself.

[marshmat]

MB,

You've posted four times in this thread, once to describe the stockpiling of oil as a prudent move, and three times to tell Eponodyne that he doesn't get it and needs to read more.

Given the current situation on the commodity futures markets, I agree with you that stockpiling oil for use later in the year would seem to make financial sense, if you're in that buisness. (That doesn't mean that I trust Wall Street speculators to do the stockpiling.) But I think that if you are going to espouse this view so vehemently, then in the spirit of open discussion you ought to elaborate on what factors led you to this conclusion. Accusing other forum members of "not getting it" is not an appropriate way to begin a discussion.

[masalai]

Prolly something similar to my answer in #4.... The markets are behaving in a manner that can only be defined as "nuckin futs" and if you can see a profit (OPPORTUNITY) that can have the risk removed by using some of the herd's silly positions then do it, and then the herd heard and followed and may be too late and get caught on the wrong side of speculation again (GREED) - - - when the market has gone all illogical then careful observation identifies good deals and the "wall street herd" follow - but often not quick enough to profit from the gossip..... by the time they have accessed the money/credit to do the deal - don't shoot the cart if the horse rears up....

[Meanz Beanz]

I'm past yelling about it now... it will become evident enough to the great unwashed soon enough.

[Meanz Beanz]

Every price is determined at the intersection of two markets. The market for the good and the market for the money used to price the good. We have a dislocation in the later that is disrupting the former... all in all this is damaging many markets with good fundamentals. This is a "money market" or credit event, it will wash out... this also is a great example of why money needs to be stable and not the constantly inflating toilet paper that the great unwashed have been educated to trust. The market players are merely reacting to the fundamentals of the oil markets as they see them... speculators buy futures with no intent to deliver or supply... oil men fill ships full of oil and shut down rigs because the paper price has fallen below their costs, they do it to survive... and its kinda good for us that they do survive for tomorrow we need oil as well. Anyway... $3x oil has ensured $3xx oil will be here much sooner than it would have been otherwise, thats the great pity. Meanwhile the ignorant, bar brawling, energy entitled masses bay for the blood of the people that supply this much needed commodity, kinda like a teenager abusing the parents that feed and shelter them. We have a Magpie here that rears young every year... once they get to that stage the father beats the crap out of the kids and sends them off into the real world with his beak firmly poking their butts. The masses are about to feel the beak...

[Meanz Beanz]

Now back to trite one liners for mass consumption...

[Frosty]

When you buy into the futures market you are in effect holding something in your name expecting it to rise in price. Doesnt always work like that but thats the Idea.

If Its common knowledge that some people are holding Tankers of the stuff then they are flooding the market which will not be to thier benefit.

Its not like a future where it does'nt yet exist,-- it does exist and can be and is available for sale now. In that respect it is a reserve and a big reserve will keep prices low.

Knowing that oil is available.

Shell is buying it to use. A speculator buys it for one reason only,-- profit.

Owning oil would be good if there was none around, but there is because you have 2 million barrels of the stuff offshore.


Having no bread in the kitchen is not a shortage of bread. Having no bread at the bakers is a shortage of bread.

OR-- there is no point in a farmer buying 2000 tons of grain expecting the price to go up when the farmer next door also has 2000 tons of grain.

[sabahcat]

They are hoarding a commodity every bit as valuable and necessary as wheat.

Wheat is food, without food we die but oil?

[sabahcat]

Put all the fancy names on it you want; rationalize that "they're just out to make money," and I still won't budge an inch. These people are tying up the supply of badly-needed oil by parking ships?!?!? That means that while the vessel is sitting idle, it's effectively out of service. It can't drop its cargo and haul more oil

So *******s profit and the rest of us suffer. I don't care if it's strictly speaking "Legal," It's immoral as hell and I stand by my words.

If you haven't figured it out yet people aren't using as much oil as they were. People are realising what idiots they were for having 7 litre V8 4x4's to do the shopping with and take little Johnny to school in and getting more realistic vehicles.

Also have a look at the BDI, http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm its fallen off a cliff for all comodities, ships ARE sitting idle because of this thing called the credit crunch, companies dont have the CASH to pay LOC as guarantees of payment to get ships loaded and unloaded, people are not buying vast quantities of worthless crap anymore for the sake of spending and keeping up with the Joneses.

The ships are sitting idle anyway, you can just about walk from Singapore to Malaysia.

[Guest62110524]

If you haven't figured it out yet people aren't using as much oil as they were. People are realising what idiots they were for having 7 litre V8 4x4's to do the shopping with and take little Johnny to school in and getting more realistic vehicles.

Also have a look at the BDI, http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm its fallen off a cliff for all comodities, ships ARE sitting idle because of this thing called the credit crunch, companies dont have the CASH to pay LOC as guarantees of payment to get ships loaded and unloaded, people are not buying vast quantities of worthless crap anymore for the sake of spending and keeping up with the Joneses.

The ships are sitting idle anyway, you can just about walk from Singapore to Malaysia.

that is entirely too sensible a post, are you QUITE sure you a re Australian?

[Meanz Beanz]

If you haven't figured it out yet people aren't using as much oil as they were.

If you haven't figured it out yet we are running at a 9.1% depletion rate which far exceeds any demand destruction which is in reality limited in the US and a fiction in Asia. Play with a calculator and see what that rates actually means by 2015... assuming the depletion rates stays static, which they won't, never does... look up Cantrell and see what happened there. This is a disaster about to happen as you will see over the next few years.

[Meanz Beanz]

Frosty,

1. A futures contract has two sides... long and short... no matter what happens to price some one ends up ahead unless price remains static.

2. Shell hopes to profit, shell sells energy they are buying it because its cheaper than they can produce it.... they figure it is uneconomically cheap.

3. A few tankers is a drop in the ocean, its not a big price effecting reserve, less that a few % of daily consumption.

4. Oil supply is only just meeting demand... its unique commodity in that 3% to much is a glut, 3% to little is a disaster. We are very finely balanced at the moment with the turmoil in the credit market being the overriding element tipping the balance forcing commodities giants like Glencore into mass liquidations. This is temporary and destructive.

sabahcat... without oil western agriculture fails completely. We use 10 calories of oil to deliver 1 calorie of food. There is oil in everything you do or touch on a daily basis... you have no idea how addicted we are to this stuff. So yes oil is wheat in a very real sense.....

[Frosty]

[QUOTE=Meanz Beanz;
3. A few tankers is a drop in the ocean, its not a big price effecting reserve, less that a few % of daily consumption.

4. Oil supply is only just meeting demand... its unique commodity in that 3% to much is a glut, 3% to little is a disaster. ...[/QUOTE]

The world uses 1000 bbls a second or 86 million bbls per day or there abouts.

A vlcc is about 300,000tons, that 2.2mill bbls. Some are now 450,000tons

A few you said,--so take that as 2 that 4,4million bbls

Thats way over your 3 %. So with just 2 normal size tankers you have made a your glut.

[masalai]

How fast do they travel when fully laden & how long to fill and then pump out? and who has the capacity to fully accept one load and where?

[Jimbo1490]

How fast do they travel when fully laden & how long to fill and then pump out? and who has the capacity to fully accept one load and where?

I vote for the port of Houston to get the list going:D


Jimbo

[Meanz Beanz]

Thats way over your 3 %. So with just 2 normal size tankers you have made a your glut.

For a day, Frosty... for a day ---> 3% on a sustained basis... not 3% of one days requirement. This has more to do with the paper market than the physical market. Credit has caused disruptions in delivery everywhere, material is still wanted and available but its not moving because of credit. Anyway we are talking flow rate which is not directly connected to reserve size and depletion rate. Flow at a given point can be high/low enough to move price in a illogical direction given overall reserves and the strengthening or depletion of them. We are depleting at 9.1% (IEA number) at the moment... this is the overriding fundamental that will come to bear when these paper market disruptions and credit issues settle down.

[Meanz Beanz]

How fast do they travel when fully laden & how long to fill and then pump out? and who has the capacity to fully accept one load and where?

It depends on the price of oil... the cheaper it is the faster they move, the more expensive the slower they move. They calculate the cost/profit sweet spot and that dictates the best speed to travel.

The reason that such a small % dictates glut/shortage is that very issue.... just what do you do with 2 million barrels of oil if you have no storage? The system needs a certain flow rate... too little an no buffers exist, too much and no storage exists. Step outside of that flow rate band and huge pressure on price occurs.

[marshmat]

And that's part of the problem... no storage.
The US has their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but on the whole there is very little buffering capacity in the global oil distribution system.
New refining capacity simply isn't being built to any great degree; refineries take decades to pay off and the oil companies are very much aware that, as known reserves dwindle and it becomes increasingly more difficult to find ever-smaller new reserves, they wouldn't be able to supply new refineries for long enough to turn a decent profit on them.
These days, when one refinery goes down- even briefly- what little reserve supply is available is quickly depleted, gas stations have empty tanks, and pump prices skyrocket.
Attempting to match price, supply and demand when there is so little buffering capacity, will lead to volatility. No doubt, that's a factor in the wild price swings we've been seeing lately.

[Meanz Beanz]

For sure the industry knows that the payback on refineries built today may never come, thats if they let you build one. They also understand that even though we have 50% of the total reserve left many factors conspire to deny us access to all of it, add that to the exponential nature of demand and the accelerating nature of decline... Its a train wreck thats going to happen inside the period of time in which we can respond with new tech, there is a decade long (?????) gap here that will prove very hard to bridge. Anyway, this is why oil infrastructure is rusting into the ground... on one level or another new investment is not making sense at these prices and for the big long term investments its not making sense at all. 9.1% depletion means half todays oil flows by 2015 IF the depletion rate stays steady (unlikely)... who wants to spend billions to refine oil in that scenario? They will keep patching these things until they are no longer needed.... which is closer that we collectively realise.

[Frosty]

3% glut today is 3% glut tomorrow if consumption does'nt change.

I dont tink storing tankers is a good thing anyway, 20,000 dollars per day rent plus maintenance, plus discharge and docking fees and anchoring whilst waiting plus cleaning tanks and LAWS that go along with it.

Then you might have to deliver it 12,000 miles

How long will you wait for profit, the longer you wait the more inclined you would be to take an offer.

A future would be better no involvement with the commodity at all.

Thats why I think the report is not all true, you dont believe everything you read.

[marshmat]

They will keep patching these things until they are no longer needed.... which is closer that we collectively realise. Petro-Canada just packed up an entire refinery near here- broke the whole thing into pieces, put them in containers, sent it to India and put it back together. Not because the capacity isn't needed here- it is- but because the combination of high demand and cheap labour in India held the promise of more profitable refining down there. But they didn't want to invest in a new one.
I dont tink storing tankers is a good thing anyway, 20,000 dollars per day rent plus maintenance, plus discharge and docking fees and anchoring whilst waiting plus cleaning tanks and LAWS that go along with it.
Then you might have to deliver it 12,000 miles
I don't like that they're doing it either. But at current prices, it is profitable to just park the ship for a few months. Spot prices for Mideast crude are in the $40-$46 range right now; the July contract is trading at $55. Load up a 2M bbl tanker at $43, that's $86M, but if you hold a July contract for that same oil on the futures market it's worth $110M. So a $24M margin, of which the tanker- even at $80k a day (to be honest I don't know exactly what a VLCC charters for these days)- will cost only $14M, leaving a healthy $10M in the pocket, or a 12% margin in 6 months. Not shabby in this economy....

[Frosty]

Bloomberg Tv says its 40 dollar BBl and i saw it hit 39 on Fri.


Iran has always been calling war cries and thats half the reason the world got the jitters 6 months ago.

Now its 40BBl they are not happy and have started again trying to get us all worked up about shortages. But its just not working, Even though they have called on an embargo on Isreal supporters, normally that would be enough to send it through the roof but Iran never stands by its word and now its word is worthless. Opec have also cut back and still nothing.

Americas reserves are increasing (into the 3% margin and more) and we are not using the stuff any more. We have had enough of having our gooleys squeezed.

How do you think it will rise then?

[masalai]

upwards? but if it falls through disuse then it wouldn't be called a "rise" or "upwards" and that would be difficult to understand or believe?

Oops, whth Frosty posting I thought this was the drivel thread.... :D:D:D:D

[Meanz Beanz]

3% glut today is 3% glut tomorrow if consumption does'nt change.

I dont tink storing tankers is a good thing anyway, 20,000 dollars per day rent plus maintenance, plus discharge and docking fees and anchoring whilst waiting plus cleaning tanks and LAWS that go along with it.

Then you might have to deliver it 12,000 miles

How long will you wait for profit, the longer you wait the more inclined you would be to take an offer.

A future would be better no involvement with the commodity at all.

Thats why I think the report is not all true, you dont believe everything you read.

As Marsh points out its a simple arbitrage play because the futures market has got the near term pricing wrong for external reasons (credit).

Its not 3% because is not a days worth of saving... get it?... No...

[Frosty]

[QUOTE=Meanz Beanz;

Its not 3% because is not a days worth of saving... get it?... No...[/QUOTE]


Thats condescending beanz and very rude if you don't have the time to reply in a pleasant manner please dont.

But I see now that I never will,--'get it'. Im using your own argument and Im still wrong,--but don't bother explaining it. What ever you say beanz --what ever you say.
Get it?---No---never mind.

[Meanz Beanz]

Thats condescending beanz and very rude if you don't have the time to reply in a pleasant manner please dont.

But I see now that I never will,--'get it'. Im using your own argument and Im still wrong,--but don't bother explaining it. What ever you say beanz --what ever you say.
Get it?---No---never mind.

Your not using my argument at all... you don't seem to get it at all. You're comparing flow rate with a small amount of stored oil, chalk and cheese my grumpy little mate.

[masalai]

Holding the oil in a couple of supertankers, is just that - other supertankers are still delivering else the price would elevate indicating a temporary shortfall but whilst the flows are flowing that would be fixed before it started as the country wide buyer would ensure continuity by diverting another supply ship etc.....

[Frosty]

Your comparing flow rate with a small amount of stored oil, chalk and cheese my grumpy little mate.

Really? is that what I said. Is it?

[Meanz Beanz]

Really? is that what I said. Is it?

Yes... it is. You calculated a few tankers worth against a global daily consumption figure and declared it more than 3% soooo yada yada yada glut. Which is just crazy... total oil volume in storage means little most of the time, its the rate at which its flowing into the system and out of the system that counts... not the fact that a few million barrels are sitting in a tanker. The ease with which that tanker can be refilled is going to determine if the holder of the oil is at a disadvantage or an advantage to the market, not the mere fact that it exists as you suggested prior. So aside from the fact that overall accumulating inventories indicate an increased flow rate and vise versa the inventory as a % of daily consumption is not that useful a number. Global production verses global consumption is where you go looking for the 3% +- number.... and thats a "wet finger in the air" number quoted by some in the industry to demonstrate the concept, reality is it depends on the state of the supply chain at the time.

[Frosty]

Last time,--- 3% is your figure, I discussed one speculator owning a 'few' (again your word) which I took to the minimum that few can mean --2.



The newspaper article suggested Speculator's and Tanker's

It is a hypothetical discussion and at that point we were not including consumption against supply which of course changes everything.

But the goal posts have been shifted and now we ARE apparently taking consumption and supply into consideration and therefore an impossible discussion which is what you want to prove and suits your argument.

[Meanz Beanz]

The world uses 1000 bbls a second or 86 million bbls per day or there abouts.

A vlcc is about 300,000tons, that 2.2mill bbls. Some are now 450,000tons

A few you said,--so take that as 2 that 4,4million bbls

Thats way over your 3 %. So with just 2 normal size tankers you have made a your glut.

1. Your words above... so yeah whatever Frosty, you still seem to be mixing inventory with supply/demand (flow) which is all the 3% number was ever referencing.

2. When was consumption and supply ever not a part of the equation? Mebe your sitting on the goal post!

3. The guys storing oil in tankers don't have to speculate... they can sell forward on the futures market and lock in a profit now, the contango is amazing... this is a cast iron set in stone profit. No speculation about it... all the costs and the sale price are known now!

4. Last time I heard it reported as many as six or seven ships have been chartered for storage in the US.

5. This is just the market sorting itself out, why the hell is everybody whining about it? So a few guys are storing oil for a short while because a credit market disruption created an opportunity. What the hell would you like to happen... pour it into the sea prehaps?

[masalai]

Nah pour it out in a narrow busy sea channel (outside a pirate base) then drop a lit match..... with an onshore breeze....

[kach22i]

This from the Toronto Star today. :
FYI: I went and re-posted (all of it) here:
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/showthread.php?t=451454

Good article and post.

[kach22i]

Petro-Canada just packed up an entire refinery near here- broke the whole thing into pieces, put them in containers, sent it to India and put it back together. Not because the capacity isn't needed here- it is- but because the combination of high demand and cheap labour in India held the promise of more profitable refining down there. But they didn't want to invest in a new one.

I don't like that they're doing it either. But at current prices, it is profitable to just park the ship for a few months. Spot prices for Mideast crude are in the $40-$46 range right now; the July contract is trading at $55. Load up a 2M bbl tanker at $43, that's $86M, but if you hold a July contract for that same oil on the futures market it's worth $110M. So a $24M margin, of which the tanker- even at $80k a day (to be honest I don't know exactly what a VLCC charters for these days)- will cost only $14M, leaving a healthy $10M in the pocket, or a 12% margin in 6 months. Not shabby in this economy....
Good information, weird the way the world gets by.

[safewalrus]

you can just about walk from Singapore to Malaysia.

What do you mean "Just about?" hell the causeway ain't that long (I've done it, some years ago mind), or has something happened over the years?

[masalai]

maybe sabahcat was referring to walking through the **** & slime at low tide?

[Frosty]

Well I think he meant that there was so many tankers anchored of Changi that you could walk from one to the other, but Im not sure.

Safe there is 2 causeways now.

[mark775]

Jimbo, in post# 9 explained life as it is. Meanz Beanz in post #26 - I understand what you are saying about an economic speed but the tankers haul ass when the price is high because, even though it costs them more to travel, they make more by getting there quicker, These guys are screaming to high heaven in Valdez at $ 100 oil, for example, if they have to wait for another tanker at a terminal. Also, if the price of oil is high, there is hell to pay if a supervisor holds up a tanker for weather (15 ft, seas, 60kts wind, as I recall are maximums to leave Prince William Sound). You would be amazed at the number of times that the weather is officially; seas14.7-8-9ft., wind 56-7-8-9 Kts. and when they clear the ten kt. zone...it´s off to the races!