What Do We Think About Climate Change

[bntii]

Guillermo
I had a good table but can't find it just now.. Here are a couple of good places to start looking:

http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/links.php
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
http://edcintl.cr.usgs.gov/carbon_cycle/
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=...&start=10&sa=N

[bntii]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

So I propose a challenge to you. What are the HARD FACTS everybody can agree with.. Then present these facts and start to argue about the theories and the Merovingities behind them

Fact-
The level of carbon in the atmosphere is far higher and increasing at a rate some 200 times faster than levels observed for 800,000 years prior to the industrial era.

"... carbon dioxide has increased by about 35 per cent in the past 200 years. Before that 200 years, which is when man's been influencing the atmosphere, it was pretty steady to within 5 per cent"

"The core shows that carbon dioxide was always between 180 parts per million (ppm) and 300 ppm during the 800,000 years. However, now it is 380 ppm. Methane was never higher than 750 parts per billion (ppb) in this timescale, but now it stands at 1,780 ppb."

"... carbon dioxide today is not just out of the range of what happened in the last 650,000 years but already up 100 percent out of the range,"

"But the rate of change is even more dramatic, with increases in carbon dioxide never exceeding 30 ppm in 1,000 years -- and yet now carbon dioxide has risen by 30 ppm in the last 17 years."

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...e06949.html#B8

[bntii]

Originally Posted by Jimbo1490

Guillermo,

Thanks again for the many, many citations. Even a small posting such as I made this morning can take a couple of hours for web search, reading and then writing the post. I can only imagine the time and effort that you put into the last group of posts.

ha- funny

Guillermo was making a point that it is all too easy to cite hundreds of sources and provide no value to this debate... finding these took him all of five minutes.

Originally Posted by Guillermo

Let's go the way Boston likes:

Why don't we skip that...
Long lists of studies are irrelevant to a debate unless each one is fully addressed as to its position and value in the scientific knowledge base and specific application to the issue at hand.

[bntii]

.03% posted from the results of a search which took me 30 seconds... anyone impressed?


Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants
TL Root, JT Price, KR Hall, SH Schneider, C … - Nature, 2003 - csa.com
Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. ... We gathered information
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[CITATION] Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model
PM Cox, RA Betts, CD Jones, SA Spall, IJ … - Nature, 2000
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Model estimates of CO 2 emissions from soil in response to global warming
DS Jenkinson, DE Adams, A Wild - Nature, 1991 - nature.com
... 351304a0. Model estimates of CO 2 emissions from soil in response to global
warming. DS Jenkinson * , DE Adams & A. Wild. Department ...
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The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Reply
R Mendelsohn, W Nordhaus, D Shaw - AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 1999 - ideas.repec.org
The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Reply.
Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info ...
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… dependence of soil organic matter decomposition, and the effect of global warming on soil organic C …
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EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON SOIL ORGANIC C STORAGE MIKO ...
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[PDF] ►Beyond Global Warming: Ecology and Global Change
PM Vitousek… - Ecology, 1994 - biology.creighton.edu
Page 1. Beyond Global Warming: Ecology and Global Change Peter M. Vitousek
STOR ® Ecology, Vol. 75, No. 7 (Oct., 1994), 1861-1876. ...
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[BOOK] The Economics of Global Warming
WR Cline - 1992 - books.google.com
... WILLIAM R. CLINE The Economics of Global Warming INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON, DC June 1992 Page 4. ... 2. Global warming. 3. Greenhouse effect. ...
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Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?
L Hughes - Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2000 - Elsevier
... Air temperature Scenarios Climate models predict that the mean annual global surface
temperature will increase 1–3.5 C by 2100, with warming more pronounced ...
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Relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming
DA Lashof, DR Ahuja - Nature, 1990 - nature.com
... 344529a0. Relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global
warming. Daniel A. Lashof * & Dilip R. Ahuja †‡. * Natural ...
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Future global warming from atmospheric trace gases
RE Dickinson, RJ Cicerone - Nature, 1986 - nature.com
... Nature 319, 109 - 115 (09 January 1986); doi:10.1038/319109a0. Future global warming
from atmospheric trace gases. Robert E. Dickinson & Ralph J. Cicerone. ...
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'Little Ice Age'summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming …
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D Pearce - Economic Journal, 1991 - ideas.repec.org
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Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming
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Some Coolness Concerning Global Warming
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Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model
J HANSEN, I FUNG, A LACIS, D RIND, S LEBEDEFF, R … - Journal of Geophysical Research, 1988 - agu.org
... Principal results from the experiments are as follows: (1) Global warming to the
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Fire, Global Warming, and the Carbon Balance of Boreal Forests
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Beyond Kyoto Advancing the international effort against climate change
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Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent
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S Rahmstorf, A Ganopolski - Climatic Change, 1999 - Springer
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MODEL ... The maximum global warming is reached several decades after the CO ...
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N Arnell - 1997 - fao.org
Record number, GB9712467. Titles, Global warming, river flows and water resources.
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Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: Comparison of observations with HadCM2 simulations
M Hulme, TJ Osborn, TC Johns - GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 1998 - adsabs.harvard.edu
Title: Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: Comparison of observations
with HadCM2 simulations. Authors: Hulme, Mike; Osborn ...
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[CITATION] Global trends of measured surface air temperature
J HANSEN, S LEBEDEFF - Journal of Geophysical Research, 1987
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Will changes in soil organic carbon act as a positive or negative feedback on global warming?
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Constraint to Adaptive Evolution in Response to Global Warming
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Ecosystem responses to global warming will be complex and varied. ...
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On Modification of Global Warming by Sulfate Aerosols
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[PDF] ►Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
M Oppenheimer - Nature, 1998 - kingreedbraden.googlepages.com
... 8 NATURE | VOL 393 | 28 MAY 1998 325 review article Global warming and the stability
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International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy
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Simulation of Early 20th Century Global Warming - ►noaa.gov [PDF]
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... Reports. Simulation of Early 20th Century Global Warming. Thomas L. Delworth *
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[CITATION] Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming
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What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model
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Challenging Global Warming as a Social Problem: An Analysis of the Conservative Movement's Counter- …
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B Maxwell… - Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: An Ecophysiological …, 1992 - Academic Press
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Amazonian deforestation and global warming: carbon stocks in vegetation replacing Brazil's Amazon …
PM Fearnside - Forest Ecology and Management, 1996 - Elsevier
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Grassland Vegetation Changes and Nocturnal Global Warming
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Global Warming and Marine Carbon Cycle Feedbacks on Future Atmospheric CO2 - ►unibe.ch [PDF]
F Joos, GK Plattner, TF Stocker, O Marchal, A … - Science, 1999 - sciencemag.org
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Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of Century-Scale Global Warming - ►noaa.gov [PDF]
JL Sarmiento, C Le Quere - Science, 1996 - sciencemag.org
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Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: A response to global warming? - ►nih.gov [HTML]
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... Vol. 96, Issue 10, 5565-5569, May 11, 1999. Ecology Long-term trend toward earlier
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Global Warming Uncertainties and the Value of Information: An Analysis Using CETA
SC Peck, TJ Teisberg - Resource and Energy Economics, 1993 - ideas.repec.org
Global warming uncertainties and the value of information: an analysis using
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Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming
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Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning - ►repec.org [PDF]
A Ulph, D Ulph - The Economic Journal, 1997 - Blackwell Synergy
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… the Rocky Mountain Region and Potential Habitat Loss Due to Global Warming: A Geographic Information …
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Thermal Limits to Salmonid Distributions in the Rocky Mountain Region and Potential
Habitat Loss Due to Global Warming: A Geographic Information System (GIS ...
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Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming
TML Wigley, SCB Raper - Nature, 1987 - nature.com
... Nature 330, 127 - 131 (18 November 1987); doi:10.1038/330127a0. Thermal expansion
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[PDF] ►Is Global Warming Harmful toHealth?
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Potential effect of global warming on mosquito-borne arboviruses.
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J Med Entomol. 1994 May;31(3):323-32. Potential effect of global warming on
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Quantifying Global Warming from the Retreat of Glaciers
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... Quantifying Global Warming from the Retreat of Glaciers Johannes Oerlemans ... used to
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The impact of global warming on river runoff
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Endogenous Substitution among Energy Resources and Global Warming - ►ualberta.ca [PDF]
U Chakravorty, J Roumasset, K Tse - Journal of Political Economy, 1997 - UChicago Press
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James Roumasset, and Kinping Tse ... efits and costs of global warming. ...
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After Kyoto: Alternative Mechanisms to Control Global Warming - ►angelfire.com [PDF]
WD Nordhaus - American Economic Review, 2006 - atypon-link.com
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[PDF] ►How Dry is the Tropical Free Troposphere? Irnplications....... for Global Warming Theory
RW Spencer, WD Braswell - ntrs.nasa.gov
... for Global Warming Theory Roy W. Spencer* and William D. Braswell ÷ ABSTRACT // / " . ...
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Fossil Plants and Global Warming at the Triassic-Jurassic Boundary
JC McElwain, DJ Beerling, FI Woodward - Science, 1999 - sciencemag.org
Page 1. DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5432.1386 , 1386 (1999); 285 Science et al. JC
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Population Growth and Global Warming
J Bongaarts - 1992 - popline.org
Title: Population growth and global warming. ... The processes underlying future
global warming in the absence of intervention is described. ...
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[PDF] ►Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change
R Gerlagh, B van der Zwaan - Resource and Energy Economics, 2003 - 130.37.129.100
Page 1. Resource and Energy Economics 25 (2003) 35–57 Gross world product and
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Global Warming and Tropical Land-Use Change: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biomass Burning, … - ►inpa.gov.br [PDF]
PM Fearnside - Climatic Change, 2000 - Springer
GLOBAL WARMING AND TROPICAL LAND-USE CHANGE: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM BIOMASS
BURNING, DECOMPOSITION AND SOILS IN FOREST CONVERSION, SHIFTING CULTIVATION ...
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Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty
RN Cooper - Foreign Affairs, 1998 - foreignaffairs.org
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SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING
WJM Martens, TH Jetten, DA Focks - Climatic Change, 1997 - Springer
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3. SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING 147 ...
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Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Response to Global Warming - ►noaa.gov [PDF]
PJ Kushner, IM Held, TL Delworth - Journal of Climate, 2001 - ams.allenpress.com
... 490K). Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Response to Global Warming.
Paul J. Kushner, Isaac M. Held, and Thomas L. Delworth. ...
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Model assessment of the role of natural variability in recent global warming
RJ Stouffer, S Manabe, KY Vinnikov - Nature, 1994 - nature.com
... 367634a0. Model assessment of the role of natural variability in recent global
warming. RJ Stouffer, S. Manabe & K. Ya. Vinnikov. Geophysical ...
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Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming - ►pnas.org [HTML]
WE Bradshaw, CM Holzapfel - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2001 - National Acad Sciences
... Evolution Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global
warming. William E. Bradshaw * and Christina M. Holzapfel ...
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Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment - ►gatech.edu [PDF]
PJ Webster, GJ Holland, JA Curry, HR Chang - Science, 2005 - sciencemag.org
... with a statistically significant positive trend in SST has led to the speculation
that the changes in both fields are the result of global warming (3). Fig. ...
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Key authors: P Center - U Federal - G Basics - T Solutions - R Feed

[Boston]

seems like whenever Ild have em on the ropes they would, rather than admit anything
pull some other rabbit out of there hat and start singing taa daa

Guillermo and Jimmy
you guys forgot to say
Taa Daa

I was hoping my last would illicit the proverbial last gasp, Then I skimmed through and found nothing new at all
what happened ?
same old sun is to blame
same old maybe its the oceans
same old we dont understand what the climate really is
same old plea to give up the latest tact; logic, and play the game of distraction

not going to work me hearties

lets get real
Ild be surprised if there was a real climate scientist actually on this thread
cause if there was, there's a 97% chance he'd be laughing his ass off
and a 3% chance he'd be all pissed off cause he got laughed at.
It takes a lifetime of study to grok even a small fraction of the data available concerning this issue,
let alone draw some half baked conclusion from the infinitesimally insignificant amount of data that gets played here.
The minority 40% or so of the public that hold the detracting view do so as a belief based not in scientific data, but on political disinformation;
nor is the public majority 60% or so's belief based on a true grasp of scientific knowledge, but rather on a realization of whats obvious.
billions of people
massive destruction of the ecosystem
extraordinary levels of waist of every description
animals going extinct faster than ever before
birds dropping like flies
9/10 fish gone from the oceans
a near total destruction of every large estuarine ecosystem on the planet
incomprehensible levels of polution in the air on land and in the oceans virtually everywhere its measured
an ever growing use of combustibles producing ever growing levels of toxic fumes now measured in gigatons
and toxins that permeate even the remotest of ecosystems
under EPA standards killer whales in the arctic qualify as hazardous waist because of the concentrated toxins in there tissues
and on and on and on
its obvious
we are having an effect
and its a big one

bntii I give you a lot of credit for beating them at there own game with the analytical approach
you have demolished there arguments time and again but
I fed em all the analysis they would ever need ages ago and
Taa Daa
it got ignored

and yes I used spell check
what I dont have anymore is a secretary Jimmy
you want to strap on some heels and a nice dress your welcome to fill out the app
but some how I dont think its going to work out
love B

oh
so a watch in a room eh
if you consider the hole system
and you had mined smelted and manufactured that watch in that room
dont you think the heat and fumes would have killed every living breathing thing long before you got to actually study the watches

ah and Frosty
good idea
thats what led me to my present form of argument
the basic empirical method of study, IE the scientific method, deals in data and rarely considers anything as incontrovertible fact
science is not basic math
math is the hardest of the disciplines dealing in basic known
psychology being about the softest dealing in idiosyncrasies rather than an established norm
climate science is just getting off the ground and with a 97% consensus that whats obvious is also supported by the vast majority of the data is simply extraordinary
show me any other major new study with a 97% consensus view

yours is great idea
and one Im trying to adhere to
thus I am now arguing the logical approach to human factor
always a pleasure
B

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by bntii

Fact-
The level of carbon in the atmosphere is far higher and increasing at a rate some 200 times faster than levels observed for 800,000 years prior to the industrial era.

"... carbon dioxide has increased by about 35 per cent in the past 200 years. Before that 200 years, which is when man's been influencing the atmosphere, it was pretty steady to within 5 per cent"

"The core shows that carbon dioxide was always between 180 parts per million (ppm) and 300 ppm during the 800,000 years. However, now it is 380 ppm. Methane was never higher than 750 parts per billion (ppb) in this timescale, but now it stands at 1,780 ppb."

"... carbon dioxide today is not just out of the range of what happened in the last 650,000 years but already up 100 percent out of the range,"

"But the rate of change is even more dramatic, with increases in carbon dioxide never exceeding 30 ppm in 1,000 years -- and yet now carbon dioxide has risen by 30 ppm in the last 17 years."

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...e06949.html#B8

Fact: CO2 global levels increase after warming, in the long term, not before.
Fact: In spite of increasing CO2 levels in the last decades, global temperature is not following, but rather decreasing in the last 10 years or so.
Fact: The Medieval Warm Period was warmer than present, while CO2 levels were well under today's.

And Thomas: you've got my point. Boston's endless lists easily copied from internet are of little use to this dicussion. It would be much more positive if we bring in interesting documents for us to read and learn (but we need time to do so, don't we? if we don't read them, what's the use?)

Cheers.

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by Boston

....there's a 97% chance he'd be laughing his ass off

We don't need a climate scientist here to do the laughing: you are hilarious enough!

[Jimbo1490]

Boston,
You're showing your ass again; pull those pants up, boy!

Jimbo

[Jimbo1490]

Thomas,

the thing about Guillo's posts is that not only does he cite, but he usually quotes from the material as well. The quotation is not always the 'abstract' or introductory paragraph but sometimes from deeper into the article, indicating that he actually read the article, or at least a good portion of it. I see the same with your posts, too!

Jimbo

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by bntii

Guillermo
I had a good table but can't find it just now.. Here are a couple of good places to start looking:

http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/links.php
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
http://edcintl.cr.usgs.gov/carbon_cycle/
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=...&start=10&sa=N

Thanks, Thomas . If you find the table and post it here it will be most appreciated.
The difficulty I find is to figure out the relative weight of each component. There are several graphs and tables available, but none includes all of them.

And the available graphs and tables have a 'missing carbon' problem: around 3 petagrams (3 billion metric tons) of carbon per year are 'dissapearing' in an unknown carbon sink (the carbon black hole, indeed!)

One of the problems is the yet little understanding of the phenomena involved. Talking about plants respiration, i.e. we con find this:
(published in the November 14, 2008 issue of Science).

"In photosynthesis, plants 'breath' in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and, with sunlight energy, convert it and water into food and oxygen, which they then 'exhale,'" explained co-author Joe Berry from the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology. "In ecosystems, plants and other organisms respire producing carbon dioxide. We can measure the net change in CO2, but we do not have an accurate way to measure how much is going in or out and how this is affected by climate. Understanding this photosynthesis-climate feedback riddle is key to understanding how climate change may affect the natural processes that are a sink for human-made carbon emissions."

Cheers.

[Jimbo1490]

While we're on the 'Fact' train, I'll add these:

Fact: The beginning of 'climatologically significant' anthropogenic CO2 releases IS NOT coincident with the start of the industrial revolution. There is a ~150 year gap. This is a significant gap, and we have very good data for this time period both ITO temp and CO2 concentration.

The term 'climatologically significant' is used by AGW proponents to describe these releases which is generally agreed began circa 1950.

The significance of this is that CO2 was already rising before humans began releasing it in quantities that matter.


Fact:

In the years immediately following the agreed upon beginning of important anthropogenic CO2 releases, the climate cooled for ~40 years.

This is significant as again the causality between CO2 levels and warming is missing. Throwing up the rebuttal page from realclimate doesn't suffice as even on that page they admit that the causality must exist in shorter time scales, unresolvable in historical recons which rely on proxies. So the one test case for causality in shorter times scales is the 20th century, but the causality is again, missing. No plausible explanation has been proffered by the AGW crowd to date.

Fact:

There has been no warming in the tropical troposphere.

This is very significant because basic greenhouse theory and all the climate models tell us that we will see significant, unmistakable warming in the tropical troposphere if the observed warming is due to the greenhouse effect.

Jimbo

[Guillermo]

According to a study in Geographical Research published (2008) by Wiley-Blackwell, the droughts in eastern Australia are related to the solar magnetic phases and not the greenhouse effect.

The study titled “Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuation in Eastern Australia” uses data from 1876 to the present to examine the correlation between solar cycles and the extreme rainfall in Australia.

It finds that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – the basic tool for forecasting variations in global and oceanic patterns – and rainfall fluctuations recorded over the last decade are similar to those in 1914 -1924.

Author Professor Robert G. V. Baker from the School of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Australia, says, “The interaction between the directionality in the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields, the incidence of ultraviolet radiation over the tropical Pacific, and changes in sea surface temperatures with cloud cover, could contribute to an explanation of substantial changes in the SOI from solar cycle fluctuations. If solar cycles continue to show relational values to climate patterns, there is the potential for more accurate forecasting through to 2010 and possibly beyond.”


http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/j...42494/abstract

http://www.physorg.com/news147456732.html
Cheers.

[bntii]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

Fact: In spite of increasing CO2 levels in the last decades, global temperature is not following, but rather decreasing in the last 10 years or so.
Fact: The Medieval Warm Period was warmer than present, while CO2 levels were well under today's.

Cheers.

I contest that the records show a lack of increase/decrease in temps over the last ten years.

I contest that the Medieval warm period was: 1- warmer than today, 2- represents a fully global phenomenon, 3- Indicates in any firm manner that the current observed warming is not in fact cause by our activities, 4- demonstrates the lack of warming potential of atmospheric Co2. The existence of a variety of mechanisms which can cause warming in no way invalidates AGW theory.

Jimbo- I respectfully count none of your items in post #1483 as facts.

Originally Posted by Guillermo

It would be much more positive if we bring in interesting documents for us to read and learn (but we need time to do so, don't we? if we don't read them, what's the use?)

Thanks for this- I am very much of this leaning as well

[Guillermo]

Something about the CERN's CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) experiment:
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/press/releases...smicclouds.asp
http://www.slac.stanford.edu/cgi-wra...11a-Kirkby.pdf

[Guillermo]

Thomas,
Let's go one at a time (second 'fact' first. I noticed you didn't question the first one)

Cheers.