What Do We Think About Climate Change

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by RHough

Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.
- Michael Crichton

Untrue, cynical, and something you'd expect Crichton to say; he had a bit of a chip on his shoulder.

[hoytedow]

Crichton was a sage, not a cynic.

[wardd]

he didn't write very well

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by wardd

he didn't write very well

I dunno; I enjoyed his Eaters of the Dead (republished as The 13th Warrior, after the movie came out). I'm not going to knock the writing skills of anyone who could combine the travels of Ahmad ibn Fadlan with Beouwulf, and come up with a good read. Talk about disparate sources....

On the other hand, I didn't think much of Timeline. I skipped most of the middle, and went straight to the last couple of chapters.

[wardd]

recommended

capeks, war with the newts

i was half way through before i realized how much i was enjoying the story

A Canticle for Leibowitz

Vonnegut's Galapagos

[hoytedow]

W.E.B. Griffin books. All of them.

[hoytedow]

Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle

[wardd]

that was good too

and farmer

[wardd]

the foundation series

[Boston]

e gads sounds like we like a lot of the same writers

ok back onto subject

TüBINGEN, Germany -- In a paper in Nature Geoscience, a team from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS), along with colleagues from Tübingen (Germany) and Bristol presents a novel continuous reconstruction of sea level fluctuations over the last 520 thousand years. Comparison of this record with data on global climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels from Antarctic ice cores suggests that even stabilisation at today's CO2 levels may commit us to sea-level rise over the next couple of millennia, to a level much higher than long-term projections from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Little is known about the total amount of possible sea-level rise in equilibrium with a given amount of global warming. This is because the melting of ice sheets is slow, even when temperature rises rapidly. As a consequence, current predictions of sea-level rise for the next century consider only the amount of ice sheet melt that will occur until that time. The total amount of ice sheet melting that will occur over millennia, given the current climate trends, remains poorly understood.



The new record reveals a systematic equilibrium relationship between global temperature and CO2 concentrations and sea-level changes over the last five glacial cycles. Projection of this relationship to today's CO2 concentrations results in a sea-level at 25 (±5) metres above the present. This is in close agreement with independent sea-level data from the Middle Pliocene epoch, 3-3.5 million years ago, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to the present-day value. This suggests that the identified relationship accurately records the fundamental long-term equilibrium behaviour of the climate system over the last 3.5 Million years.

Lead author Professor Eelco Rohling of the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and Earth Science based at NOCS, said: "Let's assume that our observed natural relationship between CO2 and temperature, and sea level, offers a reasonable 'model' for a future with sustained global warming. Then our result gives a statistically sound expectation of a potential total long-term sea-level rise. Even if we would curb all CO2 emissions today, and stabilise at the modern level (387 parts per million by volume), then our natural relationship suggests that sea level would continue to rise to about 25 m above the present. That is, it would rise to a level similar to that measured for the Middle Pliocene."

Project partners Professor Michal Kucera (University of Tübingen) and Dr Mark Siddall (University of Bristol), add: "We emphasise that such equilibration of sea level would take several thousands of years. But one still has to worry about the large difference between the inferred high equilibrium sea level and the level where sea level actually stands today. Recent geological history shows that times with similarly strong disequilibria commonly saw pulses of very rapid sea-level adjustment, at rates of 1-2 metres per century or higher."

The new study's projection of long-term sea-level change, based on the natural relationship of the last 0.5 to 3.5 million years, differs considerably from the IPCC's model-based long-term projection of +7 m. The discrepancy cannot be easily explained, and new work is needed to ensure that the 'gap is closed'.

The observed relationships from the recent geological past can form a test-bed or reality-check for models, to help them achieve improved future projections.

[Boston]

SILVER SPRING, Maryland -- Scientists analyzing measurements taken in the deep ocean around the globe over the past two decades find a warming trend that contributes to sea level rise, especially around Antarctica.

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, cause heating of the Earth. Over the past few decades, at least 80 percent of this heat energy has gone into the ocean, warming it in the process.



"Previous studies have shown that the upper ocean is warming, but our analysis determines how much additional heat the deep ocean is storing from warming observed all the way to the ocean floor," said Sarah Purkey, an oceanographer at the University of Washington and lead author of the study.

This study shows that the deep ocean – below about 3,300 feet – is taking up about 16 percent of what the upper ocean is absorbing. The authors note that there are several possible causes for this deep warming: a shift in Southern Ocean winds, a change in the density of what is called Antarctic Bottom Water, or how quickly that bottom water is formed near the Antarctic, where it sinks to fill the deepest, coldest portions of the ocean around much of the globe.

The scientists found the strongest deep warming around Antarctica, weakening with distance from its source as it spreads around the globe. While the temperature increases are small (about 0.03°C per decade in the deep Southern Ocean, less elsewhere), the large volume of the ocean over which they are found and the high capacity of water to absorb heat means that this warming accounts for a huge amount of energy storage. If this deep ocean heating were going into the atmosphere instead – a physical impossibility – it would be warming at a rate of about 3°C (over 5°F) per decade.

"A warming Earth causes sea level rise in two ways," said Gregory Johnson, a NOAA oceanographer at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, and the study's co-author. "The warming heats the ocean, causing it to expand, and melts continental ice, adding water to the ocean. The expansion and added water both cause the sea to encroach on the land."

Sea level has been rising at around 3 mm (1/8 of a inch) per year on average since 1993, with about half of that caused by ocean thermal expansion and the other half because of additional water added to the ocean, mostly from melting continental ice. Purkey and Johnson note that deep warming of the Southern Ocean accounts for about 1.2 mm (about 1/20th of an inch) per year of the sea level rise around Antarctica in the past few decades.

The highly accurate deep-ocean temperature observations used in this study come from ship-based instruments that measure conductivity through salinity, temperature and depth. These measurements were taken on a series of hydrographic surveys of the global ocean in the 1990s through the World Ocean Circulation Experiment and in the 2000s in support of the Climate Variability program. These surveys are now coordinated by the international Global Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program.

The study, "Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets," authored by Sarah G. Purkey and Gregory C. Johnson, will be published in an upcoming edition of the Journal of Climate.

[Boston]

Kuwait - The Kuwait Diving Team announced on Sunday, based on a comprehensive survery of the territorial waters, death of 90 percent of the coral reefs surrounding the Kuwaiti shores.

Head of the Kuwait Diving Team Walid Al-Fadhel said in a statement to KUNA, "this requires quick action by the competent authorities to find out the real causes, as well as solutions." He also called on frequent goers to these marine natural sites to refrain from any action that may inflict damage in the reefs or kill the creatures co-existing with them.

The comprehensive survey, conducted by the team, included the major locations of coral reefs 50 miles along the shores and 70 km from the southern coast borders, with depths ranging from 1-13 meters.

The combing covered Um Al-Maradim, Kheiran, Ras Al-Zor, Garouh, Um Diera, Teyler, Kubbar and Oraifjan with the result of 90 percent of "bleaching" of the coral reef.

At the begining of noticing this phenomenon, he added, dead fish were found floating on the water surface, or laying between the corals, yet not anymore.

Al-Fadhel said that the team does not know the causes for this disaster, but it is either a natural or human, which requires the competent authorities, whether global or local, to examine and prepare accurate studies. He noted that the diving team proceeded to contact several local and international companies (interested in this matter) and send the necessary reports with some samples of sites affected for study.

Furthermore, he pointed out that the team had highlighted through awareness campaigns the necessity of protecting the coral reefs and raising tons of waste and nets off them.

Al-Fadhel revealed an initiative to offset the environmental destruction of coral reefs by expanding the reserves of Kuwait Jaber marine sites, rehabilitation of coral reefs and coral farming, in coordination with French experts.

He then expressed readiness of his team to coordinate and cooperate with scientific sectors to follow up on this phenomenon and seek to rehabilitate these locations.
(KUNA)

[Boston]

Scientists watching V.I. coral bleaching
BY ALDETH LEWIN, DAILY NEWS STAFF
Published: September 18, 2010

Stressed coral on Seahorse Cottage shoal just south of mangrove lagoon off the East End of St. Thomas.

[Boston]

and one more if I may


By Cain Burdeau, Seth Borenstein, Associated Press

NEW ORLEANS—Far beneath the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, deeper than divers can go, scientists say they are finding oil from the busted BP well on the sea's muddy and mysterious bottom.


Oil at least two inches thick was found Sunday night and Monday morning about a mile beneath the surface. Under it was a layer of dead shrimp and other small animals, said University of Georgia researcher Samantha Joye, speaking from the helm of a research vessel in the Gulf.

The latest findings show that while the federal government initially proclaimed much of the spilled oil gone, now it's not so clear.

At these depths, the ocean is a cold and dark world. Yet scientists say that even though it may be out of sight, oil found there could do significant harm to the strange creatures that dwell in the depths—tube worms, tiny crustaceans and mollusks, single-cell organisms and Halloween-scary fish with bulging eyes and skeletal frames.

"I expected to find oil on the sea floor," Joye said Monday morning in a ship-to-shore telephone interview. "I did not expect to find this much. I didn't expect to find layers two inches thick. It's weird the stuff we found last night. Some of it was really dense and thick."

Joye said 10 of her 14 samples showed visible oil, including all the ones taken north of the busted well. She found oil on the sea floor as far as 80 miles away from the site of the spill.

"It's kind of like having a blizzard where the snow comes in and covers everything," Joye said.

And the look of the oil, its state of degradation, the way it settled on freshly dead animals all made it unlikely that the crude was from the millions of gallons of oil that naturally seep into the Gulf from the sea bottom each year, she said. Later this week, the oil will be tested for the chemical fingerprints that would conclusively link it to the BP spill.

"It has to be a recent event," Joye said. "There's still pieces of warm bodies there."

Since the well was capped on July 15 after some 200 million gallons flowed into the Gulf, there have been signs of resilience on the surface and the shore. Sheens have disappeared, while some marshlands have shoots of green. This seeming recovery is likely a result of massive amounts of chemical dispersants, warm waters and a Gulf that is used to degrading massive amounts of oil, scientists say.

Animal deaths also are far short of worst-case scenarios. But at the same time, a massive invisible plume of oil has been found under the surface, shifting scientists' concerns from what can be easily seen to what can't be.

For Ian MacDonald, a Florida State University biological oceanographer who wasn't part of Joye's team, the latest findings confirm that government assessments about how much oil remains—especially a report on the subject by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in August—were too optimistic.

The oil "did not disappear," he said. "It sank."

[Boston]

OK Im on a role

SYDNEY, Australia -- New research by Macquarie University palaeobiologist, Dr John Alroy, predicts major changes to the rules of evolution as we understand them now. Those changes will have serious consequences for future biodiversity because no one can predict which groups will come to dominate after the current mass extinction.

Alroy said today's extinction is due to a range of human behaviors and activities coupled with the effects of climate change. His findings were published this week in the international journal Science.



Alroy, who works in the Department of Biological Sciences at the University, undertook his study while at University of California, Santa Barbara using the massive Paleobiology Database, which compiles data from nearly 100,000 fossil collections worldwide. He tracked the fate of major groups of marine animals throughout the fossil record and during the Earth's most massive extinction event, which occurred 250 million years ago.

He concludes that the rules governing diversity of these major groups we have assumed to be invariant have actually changed through geological time. Thus, a group's average rate of diversification or branching into new species in the past is not a good predictor of how well it will fare after a mass extinction event.

Alroy's findings indicate that as a result of a range of factors, the major extinction event currently underway will be much more severe than has been seen in most other major periods of mass extinction. Alroy notes there have been only three mass extinctions on the level of the current one in the last half billion years.

Organisms that might have adapted in the past may not be able to this time, he said.

"You may end up with a dramatically altered sea floor because of changes in the dominance of major groups. That is, the extinction occurring now will overturn the balance of the marine groups."

When there is a major mass extinction, it's not just a temporary drop in richness of species, he said.

Alroy likens what is happening now to rolling the dice with evolution.

"What's worrisome is that some groups permanently become dominant that otherwise wouldn't have. So by causing this extinction, we are taking a big gamble on what kind of species will be around in the future. We don't know how it will turn out. People don't realise that there will be very unpredictable consequences."