What Do We Think About Climate Change

[hoytedow]

Originally Posted by troy2000

Aaaah the head-in-the-sand ostriches!!! "If I make fun of it or ignore it, it'll go away!!!"

Are you really such a provincial yokel that you judge the entire world by what's happening in your back yard? Or do you just think the rest of us are that dumb?

One day last week, the temperatures in Los Angeles were the highest ever recorded, since they started keeping track in 1873 - and that was at the end of September, when it's normally cooling down at the end of summer. By your reasoning, that should be absolute proof positive to Angelenos that global warming is real.

Also, why do you keep screaming that CO2 can't be pollution? Too much of a good thing isn't good. A little bit of the horse manure you're trying to shovel is good for your rose bushes. Dumping wheelbarrow loads of the stuff around, like you're doing, will kill them...

CO2 is not pollution. It is vital for plant growth, without which all the vegans would die. Are you saying you want all the vegans dead? Just how heartless are you? You scare my plants more than the vegans do!

[hoytedow]

Originally Posted by wardd

you wish you were as clever as Miss Cillie Goos

She is probably the most intelligent living creature on your farm.

[hoytedow]

Originally Posted by troy2000

Aaaah the head-in-the-sand ostriches!!! "If I make fun of it or ignore it, it'll go away!!!"

Are you really such a provincial yokel that you judge the entire world by what's happening in your back yard? Or do you just think the rest of us are that dumb?

One day last week, the temperatures in Los Angeles were the highest ever recorded, since they started keeping track in 1873 - and that was at the end of September, when it's normally cooling down at the end of summer. By your reasoning, that should be absolute proof positive to Angelenos that global warming is real.

Also, why do you keep screaming that CO2 can't be pollution? Too much of a good thing isn't good. A little bit of the horse manure you're trying to shovel is good for your rose bushes. Dumping wheelbarrow loads of the stuff around, like you're doing, will kill them...

Los Angeles is on the gates of Hell so you would expect it to be hot. The horse manure would be useless to the rose bushes without CO2.

[wardd]

Originally Posted by hoytedow

She is probably the most intelligent living creature on your farm.

I do all the work and she gets grapes, who is smarter?

[Guillermo]

Sent: Friday, 08 October 2010 17:19 Hal Lewis

From: Hal Lewis, University of California, Santa Barbara
To: Curtis G. Callan, Jr., Princeton University, President of the American Physical Society

6 October 2010

Dear Curt:

When I first joined the American Physical Society sixty-seven years ago it was much smaller, much gentler, and as yet uncorrupted by the money flood (a threat against which Dwight Eisenhower warned a half-century ago).

Indeed, the choice of physics as a profession was then a guarantor of a life of poverty and abstinence—it was World War II that changed all that. The prospect of worldly gain drove few physicists. As recently as thirty-five years ago, when I chaired the first APS study of a contentious social/scientific issue, The Reactor Safety Study, though there were zealots aplenty on the outside there was no hint of inordinate pressure on us as physicists. We were therefore able to produce what I believe was and is an honest appraisal of the situation at that time. We were further enabled by the presence of an oversight committee consisting of Pief Panofsky, Vicki Weisskopf, and Hans Bethe, all towering physicists beyond reproach. I was proud of what we did in a charged atmosphere. In the end the oversight committee, in its report to the APS President, noted the complete independence in which we did the job, and predicted that the report would be attacked from both sides. What greater tribute could there be?

How different it is now. The giants no longer walk the earth, and the money flood has become the raison d’être of much physics research, the vital sustenance of much more, and it provides the support for untold numbers of professional jobs. For reasons that will soon become clear my former pride at being an APS Fellow all these years has been turned into shame, and I am forced, with no pleasure at all, to offer you my resignation from the Society.

It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford’s book organizes the facts very well.) I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.

So what has the APS, as an organization, done in the face of this challenge? It has accepted the corruption as the norm, and gone along with it. For example:

1. About a year ago a few of us sent an e-mail on the subject to a fraction of the membership. APS ignored the issues, but the then President immediately launched a hostile investigation of where we got the e-mail addresses. In its better days, APS used to encourage discussion of important issues, and indeed the Constitution cites that as its principal purpose. No more. Everything that has been done in the last year has been designed to silence debate

2. The appallingly tendentious APS statement on Climate Change was apparently written in a hurry by a few people over lunch, and is certainly not representative of the talents of APS members as I have long known them. So a few of us petitioned the Council to reconsider it. One of the outstanding marks of (in)distinction in the Statement was the poison word incontrovertible, which describes few items in physics, certainly not this one. In response APS appointed a secret committee that never met, never troubled to speak to any skeptics, yet endorsed the Statement in its entirety. (They did admit that the tone was a bit strong, but amazingly kept the poison word incontrovertible to describe the evidence, a position supported by no one.) In the end, the Council kept the original statement, word for word, but approved a far longer “explanatory” screed, admitting that there were uncertainties, but brushing them aside to give blanket approval to the original. The original Statement, which still stands as the APS position, also contains what I consider pompous and asinine advice to all world governments, as if the APS were master of the universe. It is not, and I am embarrassed that our leaders seem to think it is. This is not fun and games, these are serious matters involving vast fractions of our national substance, and the reputation of the Society as a scientific society is at stake.

3. In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. Effect on the APS position: none. None at all. This is not science; other forces are at work.

4. So a few of us tried to bring science into the act (that is, after all, the alleged and historic purpose of APS), and collected the necessary 200+ signatures to bring to the Council a proposal for a Topical Group on Climate Science, thinking that open discussion of the scientific issues, in the best tradition of physics, would be beneficial to all, and also a contribution to the nation. I might note that it was not easy to collect the signatures, since you denied us the use of the APS membership list. We conformed in every way with the requirements of the APS Constitution, and described in great detail what we had in mind—simply to bring the subject into the open.

5. To our amazement, Constitution be damned, you declined to accept our petition, but instead used your own control of the mailing list to run a poll on the members’ interest in a TG on Climate and the Environment. You did ask the members if they would sign a petition to form a TG on your yet-to-be-defined subject, but provided no petition, and got lots of affirmative responses. (If you had asked about sex you would have gotten more expressions of interest.) There was of course no such petition or proposal, and you have now dropped the Environment part, so the whole matter is moot. (Any lawyer will tell you that you cannot collect signatures on a vague petition, and then fill in whatever you like.) The entire purpose of this exercise was to avoid your constitutional responsibility to take our petition to the Council.

6. As of now you have formed still another secret and stacked committee to organize your own TG, simply ignoring our lawful petition.

APS management has gamed the problem from the beginning, to suppress serious conversation about the merits of the climate change claims. Do you wonder that I have lost confidence in the organization?

I do feel the need to add one note, and this is conjecture, since it is always risky to discuss other people’s motives. This scheming at APS HQ is so bizarre that there cannot be a simple explanation for it. Some have held that the physicists of today are not as smart as they used to be, but I don’t think that is an issue. I think it is the money, exactly what Eisenhower warned about a half-century ago. There are indeed trillions of dollars involved, to say nothing of the fame and glory (and frequent trips to exotic islands) that go with being a member of the club. Your own Physics Department (of which you are chairman) would lose millions a year if the global warming bubble burst. When Penn State absolved Mike Mann of wrongdoing, and the University of East Anglia did the same for Phil Jones, they cannot have been unaware of the financial penalty for doing otherwise. As the old saying goes, you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Since I am no philosopher, I’m not going to explore at just which point enlightened self-interest crosses the line into corruption, but a careful reading of the ClimateGate releases makes it clear that this is not an academic question.

I want no part of it, so please accept my resignation. APS no longer represents me, but I hope we are still friends.

Hal

Regarding the National Policy Statement on Climate Change of the APS Council:
An Open Letter to the Council of the American Physical Society

Of the signatories so far, 77 are fellows of major scientific societies, 14 members of the National Academies, one is a Nobel laureate, and there is a large number of authors of major scientific books and recipients of prizes and awards for scientific research. He adds: "Some have accepted a career risk by signing the petition. The 230 odd signatories can hardly be dismissed as lightweights compared to those who spread the message of impending climate disaster."
==========================================================

Harold Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, former Chairman; Former member Defense Science Board, chmn of Technology panel; Chairman DSB study on Nuclear Winter; Former member Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards; Former member, President’s Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee; Chairman APS study on Nuclear Reactor Safety Chairman Risk Assessment Review Group; Co-founder and former Chairman of JASON; Former member USAF Scientific Advisory Board; Served in US Navy in WW II; books: Technological Risk (about, surprise, technological risk) and Why Flip a Coin (about decision making)

(Bolded is mine. Credit: WUWT)

[wardd]

Originally Posted by hoytedow

CO2 is not pollution. It is vital for plant growth, without which all the vegans would die. Are you saying you want all the vegans dead? Just how heartless are you? You scare my plants more than the vegans do!

too much of a good thing, lets put hoy in a room with co2 equal to 99% of the air and see how long it takes him to change his mind

[Guillermo]

Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global activity is at 33-year lows.

While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.

Credit:
Dr. Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update

Figure 1: Year-to-Date (October 7) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE; units: 104 knots2) for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole (top blue time series) and for the combination of the Western North Pacific (WPAC), Eastern Northe Pacific (EPAC), and Northern Indian (NIO) basins (bottom gray time series). The difference between the two lines is therefore the contribution of the North Atlantic hurricane basin. Similar figure for Power Dissipation Index (units: 106 knots3)

Figure 2: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through September 30, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/light blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.

[Guillermo]

Below are excerpts from e-mail messages that some of the scientists behind the petition to the APS sent the CBSNews on Monday:

Princeton University's Robert Austin:

I view it as science fraud, pure and simple, and that we should completely distance ourselves from such unethical behavior by CRU, and that data files be opened to the public and examined in the full light of day. We as taxpayers pay for that work -- we are owed examination of the analysis.


Princeton University's William Happer:

The APS has not responded to our petition. We submitted the petition several weeks ago... Prof. Callan, the president elect of the APS, who works in the same building in Princeton University as Professor Austin and I, has been unable to find time to discuss the petition with us.

We have independently contacted as many members of the APS as we can to ask for their support of the petition. We are getting about as many supportive as negative responses, so I would judge that about half the membership of the APS agrees with us. Those who oppose us usually have little or nothing to say about the science and plenty of things to say about what evil people we are. Those who agree with us are troubled by the lack of scientific support for the current APS statement and the highly political nature of it.


Hal Lewis of the University of California, Santa Barbara:

I think it behooves us to be careful about how we state the science. I know of nobody who denies that the Earth has been warming for thousands of years without our help (and specifically since the Little Ice Age a few hundred years ago), and is most likely to continue to do so in its own sweet time. The important question is how much warming does the future hold, is it good or bad, and if bad is it too much for normal adaptation to handle. The real answer to the first is that no one knows, the real answer to the second is more likely good than bad (people and plants die from cold, not warmth), and the answer to the third is almost certainly not. And nobody doubts that CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing for the better part of a century, but the disobedient temperature seems not to care very much. And nobody denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, along with other gases like water vapor, but despite the claims of those who are profiting by this craze, no one knows whether the temperature affects the CO2 or vice versa. The weight of the evidence is the former.

So the tragedy is that the serious questions are quantitative, and it's easy to fool people with slogans. If you say that the Earth is warming you are telling the truth, but not the whole truth, and if you say it is due to the burning of fossil fuels you are on thin ice. If you say that the Earth is warming and therefore catastrophe lies ahead, you are pulling an ordinary bait and switch scam. If you are a demagogue, of course, these distinctions don't bother you -- you have little interest in that quaint concept called truth.

So it isn't simple, and the catastrophe mongers are playing a very lucrative game.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504383_1...53-504383.html

[Guillermo]

Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically significant global warming?
Answer from Professor Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit in a BBC interview in response to the question: YES

The latest warm period, needing anthropogenic CO2 to be explained (as per the IPCC), began around 1975. This means we have had 35 years of it, at its most, as RC loudly admits. It is clear from looking at the data that it is composed of two distinct periods and it is not cherry picking to identify these as they stand out in the data. There is the period jan 1975 – dec 1997 when the world warmed, and the period jan 1998 – 2010 (present) when it didn’t significantly increase its temperature (not to even talk from 1995, as Prof. Jones agrees with). It is generally accepted that 30 years is about the minimum for statistically significant climatic data to emerge. If the present standstill continues for four additional years, then it will become the dominant climatic factor of the past 30 years (in that moment).

It is interesting to also note that the warming between 1975 and 1990 was not in itself statistically significant. This means that it was only the 8-year warming period 1990 - 1997 (before it ceased) that has made all the difference to the statistics and significance of Earth’s warming in the past 35 years!

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/had.../to:2010/trend

[Boston]

Agnotology (formerly agnatology)
is the study of culturally-induced ignorance or doubt, particularly the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data.

The neologism was coined by Robert N. Proctor,[1][2] a Stanford University professor specializing in the history of science and technology.[3] Its name derives from the Neoclassical Greek word ἄγνωσις, agnōsis, "not knowing" (confer Attic Greek ἄγνωτος "unknown"[4]), and -λογία, -logia.[5] More generally, the term also highlights the increasingly common condition where more knowledge of a subject leaves one more uncertain than before.

A prime example of the deliberate production of ignorance cited by Proctor is the tobacco industry's conspiracy to manufacture doubt about the cancer risks of tobacco use. Under the banner of science, the industry produced research about everything except tobacco hazards to exploit public uncertainty.[5][6]

[Boston]

The Oregon Petition: A case study in agnotology

by John Quiggin on May 3, 2010

One problem with the recent discussion of epistemic closure or, in my preferred terminology, agnotology, ( that is, the manufacture and maintenance of ignorance) on the US[1] political right is that a lot of it has been discussed in fairly abstract terms. However, there is a fair bit of agreement that climate change is both a key example, and that the rightwing construction of a counternarrative to mainstream science on this issue marks both an important example, and a major step in the journey towards a completely closed parallel universe of discourse.

Climate change as a whole is too big and complicated to be useful in understanding what is going on, so it is useful to focus on one particular example, which does not require any special knowledge of climate science or statistics. The Oregon Petition, commonly quoted as showing that “31000 scientists reject global warming” not only fits the bill perfectly but was raised by Jim Manzi in his critique of Mark Levin.

So, it provides a useful test case for understanding the agnotology of the right.


The Oregon Petition has been around since the 1990s, so it’s had plenty of time to to be checked out. A 1998 version attracted 17000 signatures, and a subsequent effort in 2008 brought the total to 31000.

Here’s the Wikipedia article, a further debunking from DeSmogBlog and here’s my own investigation from 2002. Some basic points

* “Scientist’ In this petition means anyone who claims to have gone to university (initially, they had to claim some study of science subjects). The number of actual (PhD with published research) scientists who reject any part of the mainstream consensus on climate change is far smaller (Wikipedia provides a list of such scientists who have at least one published article). The number of such scientists with relevant expertise, who are not obvious cranks, ideologues or hired guns, is small enough to be counted on the fingers of one hand.
* The petition and its reporting are dishonest in obvious ways (fake PNAS style, misreporting of the content) etc
* The promoters, Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine are obvious fruitcakes

These points are easy for anyone to check, and have been so widely reproduced that a majority of the top hits on Google are debunkings. Yet, until Manzi’s takedown of Levin, I’m not aware of anyone on the conservative side of politics who has criticised the petition. On the contrary, it has been uncritically reproduced time after time (here, here, here, and a long list (with a further thorough debunking here)

To put it simply, you would have to be either a fool or a liar to suggest that this exercise had any credibility. Yet as far as I can tell, Jim Manzi is the first person on the right to offer overt criticism of this exercise, and the reaction he received suggests he will probably be the last. But the reactions Manzi received certainly give us some insight into the agnotological processes at work on the right. Essentially no-one (feel free, as always to point out exceptions) cared at all about the facts of the matter: are there really 31 000 scientists who dispute mainstream global warming theory? Rather, most of the responses amounted to circling the wagons in one form or another.

The best way to understand the rightwing approach is in legalistic terms – the aim is present advocacy for the general proposition “We are good, people who are Not Like Us are bad”. Since this is advocacy rather than analysis, it’s OK to present only evidence that supports your case, and to obfuscate or ignore disconfirming evidence. And, as in standard legal argument, it’s OK to argue simultaneously for multiple, mutually inconsistent hypotheses, as long as they all support the same final conclusion.

To switch analogies, it’s like a game of basketball scored in talking points. Fouls (in this context, talking points which get discredited) are just part of the game, with the object being to get away with as many as possible on your side, and to draw as many from the other side as possible (of course, this objective is subordinate to the overall goal of scoring as many points as possible).

So, with something like the Oregon petition, the archetypal rightwinger would simultaneously advocate all of the following:

* The petition shows that 31 000 scientists reject AGW (lots of examples above)
* There is no scientific consensus supporting AGW, so even if lots of the petition signatories aren’t really scientists, the main claim behind it is correct (see, for example, here)
* The scientific consensus supporting AGW is wrong, and its proponents are dishonest, so its OK to present non-scientists as scientists if that will promote the truth Here, particularly in comments
* AGW is being used to promote statist policies, so, even if the hypothesis is true, it should be criticised in order to undermine support for such policieshere
* Even if policies like emissions trading schemes aren’t really statist, and are a response to a real problem, they have been put forward by environmentalists and liberals (people who are Not Like Us) and must therefore be opposed by any means necessary. (implicit in just about everything written on this topic – can anyone locate an explicit version of this?).

Although this example is particularly clear-cut, it’s not atypical. Look at rightwing discussion of almost any topic (any environmental issue, health care in the US, Obama’s personal history, WMDs, effects of tax cuts and many more) and you’ll find factoids doing the rounds even though five minutes with Google would show that they are absurdly wrong.

This kind of thinking is by no means unique to the contemporary right. But it is ubiquitous, and the staying power of the Oregon petition indicates way. Even the silliest claim, once made part of the canon must be defended to the last. In extreme cases, there is the option of dropping an utterly discredited talking point and then saying “we never said that”. This is one thing the Internet has made much harder, with the perverse result that obstinacy in error has become more entrenched.

To avoid thread derailment, I’d like to defer to a separate thread (coming soon, I promise) the main rightwing response, which is a tu quoque, that is, that the left (here meaning Democrats and everyone to their left) is just as bad. I don’t believe there is anything comparable to the Oregon petition, but I want to leave this for a separate debate.

Instead, I’d like to end with the rhetorical question of whether, given the extent to which the US rightwing movement relies on the deliberate promotion of ignorance, anyone, regardless of their philosophical views on conservatism, libertarianism and so on, can associate with this movement and maintain any intellectual integrity. The converse question for the left, is whether there is any benefit in engaging intellectually with anyone who is, in the end, promoting ignorance and dishonesty by virtue of their affiliations.

[troy2000]

Boston, your comments about advancing parallel, conflicting arguments at the same time reminds me of my sister-in-law, whos' trying to break her mother's will.

In one and the same document, she claims that:
1. Her mother's signature on the will is forged.
2. Her mother was temporarily under the influence of prescription painkillers when she made the will.
3. The will is fraudulent: her mother dictated and signed it, but the notary didn't write what she dictated.
4. Her mother was suffering from Alzheimer's, and wasn't competent to write a will.
5. Her mother was of sound mind, but was bullied and abused by my wife until she gave in and changed her will.

The fact that those claims are mutually exclusive doesn't seem to bother any attorneys or judges in the least. Personally, I'd make the !@#$% pick a story and stick to it....

And that's pretty much the way that Guillermo operates, too. He just shovels claim after claim and hypothesis after hypothesis at us - not caring at all whether they agree with each other, as long as they're all denying AGW.

[Marco1]

This latest tirade, only confirms what I have said over and over.
AGW supporters are marginal with an axe to grind, resentful of the "evil" rich, strumming on the alleged "virtues" of poverty as the fools comfort, they have found in the Global Warming fraud, a niche to hide their hates and to re launch them in a different format, one that apparently virtuous and altruistic to the point of religion is in fact as egotistic, blind and stupid as any other ground swell revolution has ever been and as always manipulated by those who know how to work the masses

Pathetic really.

[masrapido]

You old women still discussing this futile subject? Well, here's the solution:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iqul...eature=related

Our solar system is actually a part of a small galaxy known as Sagitarius, 10 000 times smaller than the milky way, and it has been sucked in by it. According to several prominent sicentists from all corners of the world, it may explain the global warming which is happening instead of a mini glacial period, which had started at the beginning of the 20th century, right on time.

Now go and sail a little. Get a life. You are all wrong, so give it a rest now.

Pensioners... Give them a computer and they litter the net faster than their panales. Sorry guillermo, pero' no tengo "n" castillano...

[Marco1]

#

NZ - Hundreds of thousands of lambs die in the snow - 05 Oct 10 - New Zealand's Southland region has in the past week been hit by “the worst spring storm in living memory” according to the NZ Herald.

Six days of blizzards have caused deaths among new lambs numbering in the hundreds of thousands, and raised concern over the welfare of ewes yet to lamb.

See entire article:
http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/051010/nz___
snow_hits_farmers_big_time_.aspx
Thanks to Stephanie Relfe for this link

I'm not sure if this is a brand new story, or if it's talking about the snowstorms of a couple of weeks ago.

Reader Mike Cantwell in Australia contacted a friend who lives in NZ and learned that this took place a week or two after the big earthquake. Not recent, but still life-changing for the farmers.


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Scotland facing another savage winter - 5 Oct 10 - Scotland is facing another savage "white-out" winter - with temperatures plunging to -20°C," warns this article in the Scottish Sun.

Senior forecaster Jonathan Powell said: "Scotland will bear the brunt of Britain's winter. It has another bitterly cold winter in store.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scot...r-harsh-winter -with-temperatures-due-to-fall-to-20C.html
Thanks to Mike Brannan for this link


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Britain set for another Arctic winter, forecasters warn - 4 Oct 10 - The prediction could mean back-to-back 'white-out' winters after last year's proved to be the coldest for 31 years, with blizzards and temperatures as low as -20C, and transport chaos on the scale seen in January and February when blizzard conditions paralysed the road and rail networks.
I wouldn't be surprised if this forecast proves correct. However, the group that issued it, Positive Weather Solutions, said this summer would be one of the top three hottest on record. It was only the 14th.

See entire article:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...e-winters.html
Thanks to Craig Adkins, Don Brown and Emma Corry for this link


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Heavy Snow Across the World - 28 Sep 10 - Reports from ski resorts. "This has been a pretty amazing time for some resorts around the world." Another record year for Canada's Marmot?
See Heavy Snow Across the World


#

Canada - Not enough for human consumption? - 28 Sep 10 - Prairie farmers have faced near impossible planting conditions this year. In Saskatoon for example, 290 mm of rain fell throughout the summer, leaving fields too saturated to get in to. Average rainfall is 184 mm.

If wet and soggy weren't bad enough, an early frost gave farmers yet another barrier. "Cooler temperatures not only lead to a loss in crop yield, it limits the time spent in the field for production."

"There's a concern that the quality and quantity won't be high enough for human consumption."

See entire article:
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_
stories3&stormfile=harvest_crop_suffers_in_the__230910?ref=ccbox_homepage_category1
Thanks to C. Peter Davis in Winnipeg for this link


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1,000 missing in Mexico landslide? - 28 Sep 10 - "It seems as though there is one disaster after another here. With the massive amounts of precipitation in Mexico this year, many of the rain-soaked hillsides have become very dangerous. Vanguardia's headline says "There are at least 400 missing in the landslide" It is referring to a huge slide that occurred very early this morning (4:00 a.m.) in Santa María Tlahuitoltepec in the state of Oaxaca. It goes on to say "The Governor of Oaxaca, Ulises Ruiz, is going to Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec to coordinate the rescue work personally."

"I have just returned from a week's visit to Ixtapan de la Sal, Valle de Bravo and Toluca (all about 100 km. southwest of Mexico City.) Between here (Saltillo) and there, a distance of roughly 1,000 km., very heavy rain was encountered. A pleasant side effect is that the countryside is very lush and green as opposed to desert brown, which is normal for this time of year. It sort of camouflages the extent of the weather calamities that have befallen Mexico this year. Update A local TV news channel now says it is possible 1,000 people are missing in the slide..."

Where is global warming when we need it?

Best regards, Alan Stover
http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/hayalme...be-559813.html


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"Surprise" cold snap across Britain - First snowmen of the season
28 Sep 10 "Britain has received its first autumn snowfalls for the year as a surprise cold snap sent millions reaching for the heating controls this weekend," says the Daily Mail.
Somehow, I'm not surprised.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...hivering-Scotl and.html
Thanks to Craig Adkins for this link


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Canada - Pitiful Prairie pumpkins - 25 Sep 10 — "The cold and wet weather that has inundated much of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba lately isn't helping the pumpkin patch because these fruits need lots of warm, sunny weather to grow."
The pumpkins are turning to mush. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/new...es3&stormfile=
pitiful_prairie_pumpk ins_250910?ref=ccbox_weather_category1
Thanks to C. Peter Davis for this link


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Canada - Prairie harvest near impossible - 22 Sep 10 — "Between wind chills, frost and accumulating snow, it has been looking and feeling more like the start of winter in some parts of the Prairies this week.

"Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have been coping with temperatures in the single digits over the last two weeks. Frost warnings have been popping up in all three provinces. In Alberta, there has even been accumulating snowfall.

"The frosty conditions are not only forcing people to dig out the winter wardrobe, but are making the harvest season for Prairie farmers near impossible."
See entire article:
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/new...es3&stormfile=
cold_september_in_the _prairi_220910?ref=ccbox_homepage_category1
Thanks to C. Peter Davis in Winnipeg for this link


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Britain: One of the earliest snowfalls in living memory -
Coldest night at this time of year since stations opened - 27 Sep 10 - Scotland's Cairngorms, which enjoyed a record-breaking winter sports season that saw slopes stay open until Easter, was just hit with one of the earliest snowfalls in living memory.

The coldest temperatures were recorded at Tyndrum, where the mercury fell to -4.4C (24F) and Tulloch Bridge, which shivered at -4.2C (24.4F).

“These are the coldest temperatures recorded at this time of year since the stations opened,” said Met office forecaster Mark Seltzer. Other cold spots included Exeter airport, at just below freezing, and -1.5C in South Wales.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/...st-in-30-years
Thanks to Don Brown for this link


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Silence of the lambs in New Zealand -
Snow and bitter cold kill tens of thousands of lambs
22 Sep 10 - Tens of thousands of lambs have died over the past five days after snow and bitterly cold weather swept over the south.
See Silence of the lambs in New Zealand


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New Zealand - Heaviest snow in decades - 19 Sep 10 - Weatherwatch.co.nz's, Philip Duncan, says a bitterly cold wind-flow is causing heavy snowfall and some people have said it's the heaviest they've seen in decades.
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdeta...storyID=182570
See also http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdeta...storyID=182576
Thanks to Parnell for these links
"More coming this week, when it should be Spring time," says Parnell.


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NZ stadium collapses under heavy snowfall
"We've never had a snow fall this big before, in our history"
"Farmers have been particularly badly hit."
18 Sep 10 - Heavy snow collapses the roof on the main netball court at the world-class Stadium Southland in Invercargill.
See NZ stadium collapses under heavy snowfall


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Freak cold snap in Britain
18 Sep10 - "The freak cold snap has come weeks early, after the coldest August for 17 years. Temperatures could plummet to -1C (30F) at night – 12 degrees C below the seasonal average." See Freak cold snap in Britain


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Monster cold snap hits Tasmania - 17 Sep 10 - Strong winds, heavy snow and record cold resulted in blackouts and road closures across the state yesterday.

Snowfall was reported in several areas and weather bureau records indicated it was the coldest September day in Hobart since 1985.

Cradle Mountain Park ranger Cameron Brooke said 30-40cm of snow had fallen overnight on Wednesday, which led to the closure of parts of Cradle Mountain Rd yesterday.

Hobart's maximum temperature was 8.5C, which is 6.7C less than the September average.
http://www.themercury.com.au/article...ania-news.html
Thanks to Craig Adkins and Steve66 for this link


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Snow in Garhwal Himalayas nearly a month early -15 Sep 10 - Nearly a month ahead of schedule, the higher reaches of Garhwal Himalayas today received snowfall, sending the mercury plummeting in Chamoli and Rudraprayag districts.

Usually, the Garhwal Himalayas experience snowfall during October.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/6560507.cms
Thanks to http://climatechangedispatch.com/ for this link


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Unexpected Snow Causes Havoc In Australia - 17 Sep 10 - Heavy snow and ice are causing problems in the state of Tasmania, leaving thousands of homes without power and loads of closed roads, leaving people stranded.

"It's spring in Australia, so the snow is very unexpected!" http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/ne...00/9008832.stm
Thanks to John Brown in Ardrossan, Scotland
"The CBBCs website is actually for children," says John.
"However some news articles appear there before being
in the mainstream news."


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Canada Chilling Fast - 16 Sep 10 - Cold Arctic air is sweeping out of the north and is chilling Canada fast! Especially Western Canada where tonight's overnight temps are expected to fall to freezing and below! In Alberta where crops are still to be harvested, Fort McMurray will see temps plunge to -2C (28.4F), Prince Albert will see OC (32F), Calgary 1C (33.8F), and Moosejaw, Saskatchewan 0C (32F). Temps will not improve much over the next 10 days with the Calgary area to see temps at freezing or below on 3 nights at least. - C. Peter Davis, Winnipeg, MB


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Snow forecast for Calgary - Bad news for farmers - 14 Sep 10 - "One year ago Thursday the temperature soared to just over a blistering hot 30 C," says writer Sean Myers. "On the same day this year, meteorologists are forecasting a high of 5 C and a chance of snow.

"Frost is a possibility later this week, and snow could fall as early as Thursday and more probably on Sunday," says Myers. "That's bad news for farmers, many of whom planted late because of heavy spring rains."
See entire article:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/14092010/...w-clouds-forec ast.html
Thanks to Craig Adkins for this link


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UK - Unusual September chill, snow possible - 9 Sep 10 - It's not often in September that we mention snow, but those who read TWO buzz will know we've been talking about the possibility of unusually early cold affecting Britain during the second half of September. Our 14 day forecast mentions snow for a time over high ground in northern regions.

We first mentioned the chance of a September chill in mid August and again in our autumn forecast. It looks a good call at the moment.

We'll be speculating about whether this could compare to September 1919 when snow fell even over high ground in the south.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/
Thanks to Emma Corry for this link


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Record cold across Canada
- 6 Sep 10 - From Ontario to British Columbia to Alberta. The places that broke records were:
Cobourg, Ontario at 7.6 C (45.68 F)
Cardston, Alberta at 0.7 C (33.26 Ft)
Creston, B.C. at 5.8 C (42.44 F)
Thanks to C. Peter Davis in Winnipeg for this info



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Early snowfall in China - 6 Sep 10 - Though winter is several months away, up to 10 cm of snow has already fallen across northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

Snow blanketed parts of the 303 Regional Highway in the city of Hami, stranding many vehicles. The region's agricultural industry has also been affected, with 46-thousand hectares of wheat crops damaged by the snow.

The weather bureau says a cold front is forecast to sweep across northern China, causing temperatures to drop by up to 8 degrees Celsius. Temperatures, in areas like Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang could drop by up to 10 degrees.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201...c_13480663.htm
Thanks to Neville Kettle and Bill Sellers for this link


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Killer Frost in Alberta? - 3 Sep 10 - E-mail from a reader from Canada
There is another threat to a massive amount of Wheat, Barley and especially Canola. Frost! Alberta's vast crop fields are 2-3 weeks behind schedule due to the unusually heavy amounts of rain this summer and with temperatures dipping dangerously close to freezing most nights the crops are at huge risk. The Wheat and Barley can take some frost but the Canola would be killed outright by it. Farmers are keeping their fingers crossed in hope that a killing frost doesn't happen.

I don't hold out much hope for that, knowing the direction things are going. It will be just another reason for skyrocketing food prices and indeed, food shortages. I'm sure you agree that we should all make like squirrels and be storing long-lasting foodstuffs. - C. Peter Davis, Winnipeg, Manitoba


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Scotland - First snowfall of winter … in August - 2 Sep 10 - “There were snow showers across the Cairngorms," said Geoff Monk of Mountain Weather Info Service. "They lasted a couple of hours, it was almost ongoing. On some places the snow remained on the ground."

“It is something that happens about once every two decades," said Monk. "There can be snow in the Cairngorms any time of year, even July can have a snow shower. But it is very unusual."

Heavy falls of snow and prolonged spells of freezing temperatures were a feature of the winter just past as sub-zero temperatures and snow blew into the UK from mid-December.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/h...gust-1.1052323
Thanks to Andrew in Scotland for this link


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More flooding in Mexico - 100,000 affected
2 Sep 10 - E-mail from a reader in Mexico
It just doesn't seem to stop. Now the south is being deluged and flooded. The Vanguardia headline reads "100,000 Tabasqueños Affected by the Rain."
See More flooding in Mexico - 100,000 affected


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Knee-high snow in Poland's Tatra Mountains
31 Aug 10 - Harvest stalled due to terrible weather -
30% of crops remain on water-logged fields
E-mail from a reader in Poland
See Knee-high snow in Poland's Tatra Mountains


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Never before so much rain in Germany
E-mail from readers in Germany
31 Aug 10 - Germany received more rain in August than
in any August since records began in 1881.
See Never before so much rain in Germany


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Snow in the Alps a month earlier than normal
You MUST read the Google translation :-)
30 Aug 10 - Snow in Voralberg, a month earlier than "normal". Many farmers still had their cattle in the fields! It's in Dutch, but you can use an online translator to get the gist of it.
See Snow in the Alps a month earlier than normal


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August turns to November in Germany - 30 Aug 10 - E-mail from a reader in Germany. My calendar tells me its still August, well at least for another day, but here in Southern Germany it is like November!!!
See August turns to November in Germany


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Half a meter of snow in Norway - 29 Aug 10 - E-mail from a reader in Norway
The winter just arrived - half a meter of snow in several places in the mountains - it is still only August.
See Half a meter of snow in Norway


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Record cold in Canada - 29 Aug 10 - Issued by Environment Canada
Coronation - Temperatures dropped to -0.3 this morning.
The previous record of 0.0 was set in 1937.

High Level - Temperatures dropped to -1.9 this morning.
The previous record of -1.2 was set in 1982.
Thanks to Lance Appleby for this info


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One Third of Pakistan Under Water - Destroys
$1 Billion Worth of Crops - Area the size of UK
15 Aug 10 – Pakistan’s worst floods in 80 years have left 20 million people homeless and six million without food, medicine, or shelter.
See One Third of Pakistan Under Water


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Argentina - Colder Than Antarctica - 3 Aug 10 - Argentina is importing record amounts of energy to combat the coldest winter in 40 years. Temperatures in parts of
Argentina fell below those of Antarctica on July 15.
See Argentina - Colder Than Antarctica


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Peru declares state of emergency amid plunging temperatures
1 Aug 10 - Temperatures across much of the South American country
plummet to 50-year low - predicted to fall further in coming weeks.
See Peru declares state of emergency amid plunging temperatures


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Worst floods in Pakistan History - 1 Aug 10 - Pakistan's impoverished northwest has been wracked by the worst floods in the country's history, wiping out entire villages, including houses, shops, vehicles and crops, and leaving families clinging to the tops of collapsed houses in the hope of being rescued.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38508076...d_central_asia


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Pakistan flood: Thousands trapped - More than 1500 dead
Entire villages washed away
1 Aug 10 - Tens of thousands of people are still stranded and waiting for help. Such flooding has not been seen since 1929.
See Pakistan flood: Thousands trapped - More than 1500 dead


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July - Rainiest Month in Mexico History - E-mail from reader in Mexico
31 Jul 10 - It is incredible. The headline in Vanguardia says "July, The Rainiest Month in History."
http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/julioel...ia-525974.html

The second paragraph states: "The director of the National Water Commission, Jose Luis Luege Tamargo, indicated that in agreement with the measurements and forecasts, this month; July, 2010 would be the rainiest in the whole history of Mexico."

This month has been WET with rivers and dams overflowing throughout the country; roads and railways severely damaged, bridges washed out, tens of thousands of people displaced, homes destroyed or severely damaged, crops destroyed and on it goes ... massive water damage.

As you have said several times, ice ages are all about large quantities of precipitation.

Best regards, Alan Stover


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Peru Declares Cold Wave Emergency in 16 Regions
25 Jul 10 - More than 400 dead. The decree covers all districts
more than 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) above sea level, as well as
three regions in the Peruvian jungle that have registered "strangely
low temperatures" in the last few weeks.
See Peru Declares Cold Wave Emergency in 16 Regions


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Cold now extends to Amazon jungle
Email from a reader in Chile
21 Jul 10 - Here in Chile, we don't know to cope with under
zero (°C) temperature..... but the problem is bigger in tropical
Bolivian zone.....the things are worse... Each year is worse.
See Cold now extends to Amazon jungle


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South America - Longest Cold Streak in 17 years
21 Jul 10 - More than 200 deaths. Snow downs power
lines. Record low temperatures.
See South America - Longest Cold Streak in 17 years


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Death toll reaches 175 in South America - 21 July 10 - The cold was worst in southern Peru, where temperatures in higher altitudes of the Andes dropped to minus 23 degrees Celsius (minus 9F). http://en.trend.az/regions/world/oco...s/1723309.html
Thanks to Kenneth Lund for this link


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Brutal and historic cold in South America - Thousands of animals perish
20 Jul 10 - A brutal and historic cold snap has so far caused 80 deaths in South America, says this article on icecap.us.

"Temperatures have been much below normal for over a week in vast areas of the continent. In Chile, the Ayesen region was affected early last week by the worst snowstorm in 30 years. The snow accumulation reached 5 feet in Balmaceda and the Army was called to rescue people trapped by the snow."

"It snowed in nearly all provinces of Argentina, an extremely rare event ... even in the western part of the province of Buenos Aires and Southern Santa Fe." Some areas in Northern Argentina saw snow for the first time in living memory, others saw snow for the first time since 1921.

Thousands of cattle also froze to death on their pastures in Paraguay and Brazil. There are no stables for the animals as temperatures usually do not drop that low.

See entire article and many photos:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HIST...UTHAMERICA.pdf
Thanks to Joe d'Aleo for this link

See also: http://en.trend.az/regions/world/oco...s/1723309.html
Thanks to Bill Pojedinec and Jim Stoffaire for this link


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Killer Cold In Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia -18 Jul 10
Extreme cold weather has brought ice and snow to much of Argentina, killing at least nine. Deaths have also been reported in Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.

Argentina has stepped up electricity imports and restricted the use of natural gas by industry to accommodate domestic heating needs.

"Bolivia's education ministry ordered schools to close until 21 July because of the cold.

"Low temperatures have also affected Chile, southern Brazil, and eastern Peru.

"The unusually cold winter weather in South America follows one of the coldest winters for years in many parts of the northern hemisphere."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10679088
Thanks to John Brown in Ardrossan, Scotland,
and Joe Kraig in Kentucky for this link


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Record Cold in Argentina - Terrible energy crisis - 16 Jul 10 - "The data for South America is false. In Argentina we are having record cold temperatures. This July is a repetition of the 2007 July when it snowed in Buenos Aires for the first time since 1918. It snowed again yesterday. It even snowed in the province of Santiago del Estero where it has never snowed!

"Today was the coldest day in 10 years in the entire country, in all places. It keeps snowing in Tucumán, Salta and Jujuy, northern provinces close to the border with Bolivia, north of the Tropic of Capricorn. And not only in the mountains but at low altitudes (300-500 m asl).

"A temperature graph for my nearest city Alta Gracia updated to July 15th: AltaGracia-15-JUL-2010

See more at Eduardo Ferreyra says: July 16, 2010 at 9:21 pm
Thanks to Walter Schneider for these links
"Any newspaper in Argentina is speaking about this unusual cold
weather and the terrible energy crisis it has imposed on the country,"
says Walter.
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Record Cold At Antarctic Station
15 Jul 10 - "Not a sign of climate change, but rather it is a local regional weather phenomenon (only warm events are signs of climate change)."
See Record Cold At Antarctic Station


Argentina in Antarctic cold snap - 'Southern Hemisphere is freezing'
15 Jul 10 - People in Buenos Aires are panic-buying heaters as the mercury stays between a daytime 10C and a nighttime 1C.
http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/07/14/12362883.html
Thanks to Marc Morano for this link

# South Africa's Frost will see vegetable prices rocket- 15 Jul 10
"We think more than 20% off all new crops have had total damage." " We think September prices will explode because there is not enough time to plant another crop."
http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/20...etable-prices- rocket-so-much-for-global-warming/
Thanks to Marc Morano for this link


# Temperature hits record low in Brazil - 15 Jul 10
http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/07/15/12419233.html
Thanks to Marc Morano for this link


# Alberta Walloped with Heavy Snow - In mid July! - 13 July 10
“To receive this much snow in July and have it stay on the ground is unheard of,” says Megan Gibson from the Marmot Basin Ski Resort near Jasper, Alberta.
See Alberta Walloped with Heavy Snow - In mid July!


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New Zealand - Mercury plunges to record lows - 14 Jul 10 - The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said the past few days had seen some of the lowest temperatures on record.

Te Kuiti and Turangi had their coldest July nights on record, and in the South Island, Blenheim experienced its second-coldest July temperature yesterday morning.

Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said a deep low to the north had dragged exceptionally cold Antarctic air over the country that lingered for weeks.

The cold air had also stayed for a remarkably long time, with Dunedin getting air frosts on each of the past 20 days.

* -7.2C in Queenstown, the third-coldest night in 139 years.
* -6.8C in Taumarunui, in the central North Island, the coldest since 1947.
* -5.4C in Christchurch.
* -3.3C in Hamilton.
* 1.5C in Wellington.
* 2.4C in Auckland.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=10658655
Thanks to Chris James and Michael Dickisonfor this link
"Thanks for your website," says Chris. "Helps me explain my
theories to friends!!"


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Canada - Terrible Times to Come
8 Jul 10 - Flooding affecting grain and cattle farmers across the prairies
See Canada - Terrible Times to Come


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Manitoba's Interlake Continues to Flood - 7 Jul 10 - About 250 people have been evacuated to Winnipeg from the flooded Peguis Reserve in Manitobas Interlake. A dozen roads are washed out and a great many homes are flood damaged. - C. Peter Davis, Winnipeg, Manitoba


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Disaster in Mexican States (Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas)
7 Jul 10 - Email from reader - "Incredible! The magnitude of the damage caused by all of the rainfall from Hurricane Alex is only just starting to be realized and sink in with people. In Monterrey, the cleanup alone is expected to take at least six months. Reconstruction is optimistically expected to take two years."
See many headlines: Disaster in Mexican States


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Australia cold "cutting through the homeless like a silent disease"
2 Jul 10 - "With Sydney's minimum temperatures dipping towards record lows, cold and death can be pretty much the same thing for many of the thousand or so people estimated to be sleeping rough each night.

"The director of the St Vincent's Hospital Emergency Department, Gordian Fulde, said the cold snap was cutting through the homeless like a silent disease.

"Fulde said the hospital had been busy since the weekend issuing death certificates for people who had died in their homes, probably from the cold.

The mercury at Observatory Hill sank to 4.3C (39.7F) on Wednesday, the lowest June minimum since the 3.9 degrees of 1949.
See: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/homelessne...0701-zqr1.html
Thanks to Doug Mc... and Marc Morano for this link
"Sydney had it’s coldest June morning since 1949," says Doug. "Alice
Springs coldest day on record, Adelaide coldest week since 1982, etc.
More here: http://www.twawki.com/?p=7462

# Mexico - Incredible damage from Hurricane Alex - 2 Jul 10
Monterrey freeway in chaos. Dramatic drop in temperature. Scary videos.
See Mexico - Incredible damage from Hurricane Alex


# 100-year rainstorm swamps Saskatoon
2 Jul 10 - Nearly one meter (three feet) of water rush down city streets.
See 100-year rainstorm swamps Saskatoon


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Canada - Weird World Weather Continues - 4 Jul 10 - Email from reader
Yorkton, Saskatchewan declared a State of Emergency July 01 after a month's worth of torrential rain and large hail was dumped on the town. Many residents had to be rescued by small boat or canoe as basements completely filled in mere minutes. Roads were impassable in the city of 17,000. One hjundred families no longer have a home. If Yorkton gets hit by rains like that again the entire town may be destroyed as the surrounding area has already been saturated.

Saskatoon and Price Albert streets turned into rivers after more torrential rains on July 02. There has been flash flooding in Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba and more storms are expected. Peguis Reserve in Manitoba is flooded and families are being evacuated. - C. Peter Davis, Winnipeg, MB

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Danube reaches record level in Romania
2 July 10 - Today, the level reaches... 666 centimeters (21 feet 10 inches).
http://english.hotnews.ro/stiri-top_...-romania-danub e-reaches-record-level-galati.htm
Thanks to Marius Vintilescu in Campina, Romania for this link


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Global warming my backside - Coldest day in Australia in almost 100 years
1 Jul 10 - Isisford, Queensland, warmed to just 10 degrees, the town's chilliest day since before records began in 1913.
See Global warming my backside-Coldest day in Australia in 100 years

# Huge cold snap in Australia - Coldest June morning in Sydney since 1949
30 Jun 10 - People across south-east Australia are complaining about unusually chilly temperatures and experts say their complaints are justified. Most areas across the south-east are experiencing temperatures well below average.

Sydney recorded its coldest June morning today since 1949, with temperatures diving to 4.3 degrees just before 6:00am (AEST).

"It's definitely quite unusual to see such widespread cold weather in June," says ABC weather specialist Graham Creed. "It would be more typical in July and August."

He says Queensland is in for a particularly rough few days, as widespread rainfall will see the conditions change from cold and sunny to cold, cloudy and wet.

Yesterday, an icy blast through Adelaide brought enough rain to supply the city for a month, with a hail storm capping off the exceptionally wintry day.
See entire article by AmySimmons
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...30/2941227.htm
Thanks to Kacper Cerny in Germany and John Lacon in Australia for this link