What Do We Think About Climate Change

[Guillermo]

I think this is interesting:

Mauas, P.J..D., A.P.Buccino and E.Flamenco, 2010, Long-term solar activity influences on South American rivers, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics on Space Climate, March 2010.

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/...003.0414v1.pdf

Abstract
River streamflows are excellent climatic indicators since they integrate precipitation over large areas. Here we follow up on our previous study of the influence of solar activity on the flow of the Paraná River, in South America. We find that the unusual minimum of solar activity in recent years have a correlation on very low levels in the Paraná’s flow, and we report historical evidence of low water levels during the Little Ice Age. We also study data for the streamflow of three other rivers (Colorado, San Juan and Atuel), and snow levels in the Andes. We obtained that, after eliminating the secular trends and smoothing out the solar cycle, there is a strong positive correlation between the residuals of both the Sunspot Number and the streamflows, as we obtained for the Paraná. Both results put together imply that higher solar activity corresponds to larger precipitation, both in summer and in wintertime, not only in the large basin of the Paraná, but also in the Andean region north of the limit with Patagonia.

Also a recent paper in an engineering journal shows a similar strong solar control on the level of Lake Victoria in East Africa.

Mason, P.J., 2010, Climate variability in civil infrastructure planning, Civil Engineering 163, pages 74-80.
http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/con....2010.163.2.74

As Mason notes, an interesting correlation was noticed in the early 1900s between lake level and solar activity, in the form of the sunspot number. The interest this caused waned when the correlation seemed to disappear after about 1928. The early 1960s saw a dramatic climate anomaly in East Africa. Lake levels rose significantly, including those of Lake Victoria, and flows in the Tana River in Kenya doubled. The sluice gates at the Owen Falls dam were opened to release the additional water required by the Nile waters agreement and they stayed open, almost continuously, until well into the 1990s. This surplus water also led Uganda to invest in a new hydroelectric power station at Kiira. But the lake level starting falling from 1964 with an oscillation around the falling trend. This oscillation, controlled by solar activity, is shown in the second attached figure, from Mason.

Things being like that, given the link between East African and central South American rainfall and solar activity, the list of economic impacts from the current solar minimum (Solar Cycles 24 and 25) can be expanded to:

- 24 year drought in central South America
- 24 year drought in East Africa
- Paraguay and Brazil having severe power shortages.

Not nice.

[Guillermo]

“Research data on climate change do not show that human use of hydrocarbons is harmful. To the contrary, there is good evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful.”

Frederick Seitz, A.B. Mathematics, Stanford University (1932), Ph.D. Physics, Princeton University (1934), Proctor Fellow, Princeton University (1934–1935), Instructor in Physics, University of Rochester (1935–1936), Assistant Professor of Physics, University of Rochester (1936–1937), Research Physicist, General Electric Company (1937–1939), Assistant Professor of Physics, University of Pennsylvania (1939–1941), Associate Professor of Physics, University of Pennsylvania (1941-1942), Professor of Physics, Carnegie Institute of Technology (1942-1949), Research Professor of Physics, University of Illinois (1949-1965), Chairman, American Institute of Physics (1954-1960), President Emeritus, American Physical Society (1961), President Emeritus, National Academy of Sciences (1962-1969), Graduate College Dean, University of Illinois (1964-1965), President Emeritus, Rockefeller University (1968-1978), Franklin Medal (1965), American Institute of Physics Compton Medal (1970), National Medal of Science (1973).

[Guillermo]

“The scientific facts indicate that all the temperature changes observed in the last 100 years were largely natural changes and were not caused by carbon dioxide produced in human activities.”

Robert Jastrow, A.B. Physics, Columbia University (1944), A.M. Physics, Columbia University (1945), Ph.D. Physics, Columbia University (1948), Adjunct Professor of Geophysics, Columbia University (1944–1982), Postdoctoral Fellow, Leiden University, Netherlands (1948-1949), Scholar, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton University (1949-1950, 1953), Assistant Professor of Physics, Yale (1953-1954), Chief, NASA Theoretical Division (1958-61), Founding Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (1961-1981), NASA Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement (1968), Professor of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College (1981-1992), Chairman, Mount Wilson Institute (1992–2003).

[Guillermo]

“The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. …These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness.”

William Nierenberg, B.S. Physics, City College of New York (1939), M.A. Physics, Columbia University (1942), Ph.D. Physics, Columbia University (1947), Researcher, Manhattan Project, Columbia SAM Laboratories (1942-1945), Instructor in Physics, Columbia University (1946–1948), Assistant Professor of Physics, University of Michigan (1948–1950), Associate Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley (1950-1953), Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley (1954–1965), Assistant Secretary General for Scientific Affairs, NATO (1960-1962), Director Emeritus, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (1965-1986), Member, White House Task Force on Oceanography (1969-1970), Member, National Academy of Sciences (1971), Chairman, National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere (1971-1975), Member, National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere (1971–1978), Member, National Science Board (1972–1978, 1982–1988), Chairman, Advisory Council, NASA (1978-1982), Member, Space Panel, Naval Studies Board, National Research Council (1978–1984), Member, Council of the National Academy of Sciences (1979-1982), Chairman, Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, National Academy of Sciences (1980–1983), NASA Distinguished Public Service Medal (1982).

[alanrockwood]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

I think this is interesting:

Mauas, P.J..D., A.P.Buccino and E.Flamenco, 2010, Long-term solar activity influences on South American rivers, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics on Space Climate, March 2010.

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/...003.0414v1.pdf

Abstract
River streamflows are excellent climatic indicators since they integrate precipitation over large areas. Here we follow up on our previous study of the influence of solar activity on the flow of the Paraná River, in South America. We find that the unusual minimum of solar activity in recent years have a correlation on very low levels in the Paraná’s flow, and we report historical evidence of low water levels during the Little Ice Age. We also study data for the streamflow of three other rivers (Colorado, San Juan and Atuel), and snow levels in the Andes. We obtained that, after eliminating the secular trends and smoothing out the solar cycle, there is a strong positive correlation between the residuals of both the Sunspot Number and the streamflows, as we obtained for the Paraná. Both results put together imply that higher solar activity corresponds to larger precipitation, both in summer and in wintertime, not only in the large basin of the Paraná, but also in the Andean region north of the limit with Patagonia....
Not nice.

Guillermo,

You may find this paper interesting, and so do I. You might also think it supports your viewpoint against global climate change. However, the author himself disagrees with you. Here is what the author specifically says about how global climate change relates to his work.

"In Mauas et al. (2008) (hereinafter Paper I) ...We found that the streamflow variability of the Parana´ river has three temporal components: on the secular scale, it is probably part of the global climatic change..."

[alanrockwood]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

...Also a recent paper in an engineering journal shows a similar strong solar control on the level of Lake Victoria in East Africa.

Mason, P.J., 2010, Climate variability in civil infrastructure planning, Civil Engineering 163, pages 74-80.
http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/con....2010.163.2.74

As Mason notes, an interesting correlation was noticed in the early 1900s between lake level and solar activity, in the form of the sunspot number. The interest this caused waned when the correlation seemed to disappear after about 1928. The early 1960s saw a dramatic climate anomaly in East Africa. Lake levels rose significantly, including those of Lake Victoria, and flows in the Tana River in Kenya doubled. The sluice gates at the Owen Falls dam were opened to release the additional water required by the Nile waters agreement and they stayed open, almost continuously, until well into the 1990s. This surplus water also led Uganda to invest in a new hydroelectric power station at Kiira. But the lake level starting falling from 1964 with an oscillation around the falling trend. This oscillation, controlled by solar activity, is shown in the second attached figure, from Mason.

Things being like that, given the link between East African and central South American rainfall and solar activity, the list of economic impacts from the current solar minimum (Solar Cycles 24 and 25) can be expanded to:

- 24 year drought in central South America
- 24 year drought in East Africa
- Paraguay and Brazil having severe power shortages.

Not nice.

Likewise, the paper by Mason does not invalidate anthropogenic global climate change, or at least Mason himself doesn't think so. Here is what he wrote in the abstract:

"...Using African examples it shows that clear natural cycles can be identified which, when combined with possible anthropomorphic effects, can provide civil engineers with far better long-term climate predictions."

Thus, while he does argue for the importance of natural cycles, he does not argue against man-made changes. Indeed, he seems to view observed climate effects as a superposition of the two.

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by alanrockwood

You might also think it supports your viewpoint against global climate change.

I might also think you might think I might think you suppose too much. My viewpoint against global climatic change....? Are you going to keep on doing such kind of Boston-style assumptions? (or...perhaps you just intend to be provocative?). I would like to know what the level of conversation is.

One scatterbrained Boston and his mariachi-boy are more than enough here, please.

Cheers

[Guillermo]

Tropical Biodiversity Explained by Steady Temperatures

The astounding array of species that call the tropics home is the result of the near-constant year-round temperatures found in these areas, a new study suggests.

The study, which surveyed insect diversity at a variety of latitudes and points in Earth's history, answers a question that has bugged biologists for centuries. It also shows that the exceptional biodiversity of the tropics is not a result of higher temperatures or more sunlight, as once assumed.

The findings, detailed in the August issue of the journal Paleobiology, also suggest the world is likely far less diverse today than it was tens of millions of years ago, when the entire Earth had consistent year-round temperatures, much like the modern tropics.

Read more at:
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...-biodiversity/

Paper here:
http://paleobiol.geoscienceworld.org...urcetype=HWCIT

[larry larisky]

Global warming has become perhaps the most complicated issue facing world leaders. On the one hand, warnings from the scientific community are becoming louder, as an increasing body of science points to rising dangers from the ongoing buildup of human-related greenhouse gases — produced mainly by the burning of fossil fuels and forests. On the other, the technological, economic and political issues that have to be resolved before a concerted worldwide effort to reduce emissions can begin have gotten no simpler, particularly in the face of a global economic slowdown.

i find it on the newyork time web.

[Boston]

I have a mariachi ?

[Boston]

Oh and there is really not much of an assumption G. You scatter the implications yourself by posting your viewpoint against AGW ( which is correctly referred to as Rapid Global Climate Shift ) and then presenting papers that either dont support your position or are from the oil and gas industry stooges. Question is, are you waffling and you want credit for doing so, or are you simply not reading the articles you present before you present them.

Seems to me we can all take a pretty good guess as to what your view on Rapid Global Climate Shift is, so whats the deal with presenting articles that don't support your view and then acting as if we are making assumptions when we point this out.

seems like the typical slight of hand we have all come to know and love from the deniers camp

old trick G
old trick

cheers
B

[alanrockwood]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

I might also think you might think I might think you suppose too much. My viewpoint against global climatic change....? Are you going to keep on doing such kind of Boston-style assumptions? (or...perhaps you just intend to be provocative?). I would like to know what the level of conversation is.

One scatterbrained Boston and his mariachi-boy are more than enough here, please.

Cheers

Do you have a position on global warming, and if so are you willing to share it?

Based on the posts you make, which are generally in the denier camp, it would appear that you do not believe in global warming.

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

I might also think you might think I might think you suppose too much. My viewpoint against global climatic change....? Are you going to keep on doing such kind of Boston-style assumptions? (or...perhaps you just intend to be provocative?). I would like to know what the level of conversation is.

One scatterbrained Boston and his mariachi-boy are more than enough here, please.

Cheers

'Boston-style assumption'? My dear Guillermo, when someone mentions that you are a denier, it isn't an 'assumption.' It's a simple observation.

I can't imagine why you're pretending such an obvious statement is an insult.

[Boston]

I dont think he reads that stuff anyway, just kinda posts it thinking it makes him look sthmat

[Guillermo]

Alan, I'm quite surprised. You're not commenting cleverly.