What Do We Think About Climate Change

[Guillermo]

An interesting paper here:
"Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years"
By Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian
The School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, P. R. China

http://www.crikey.com.au/Media/docs/...c263af1904.pdf

From there:

"Though they do not contain the quasi-11a period relative to sun radiation, IMF2 component of the global and N(orthern)H(emisphere) temperature presents a quasi 11-year oscillation before 1900 and after 1980.
......
Now that the trend of global and NH temperature has arrived at the peak and their IMF4 have been cooling since this century, we tend to conclude that global temperature shows a falling tendency on 20–60-year timescales in the next 20 years.
......
And again, our primary conclusion, i.e., that atmospheric CO2 concentration is not a key determinant of periodic variation of the global temperature. The global climate warming is not solely affected by the CO2 greenhouse effect. The best example is temperature obviously cooling however atmospheric CO2 concentration is ascending from 1940s to 1970s. Although the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate changes is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the global climate changes. We consider that CO2 greenhouse effect impact on the trend of global temperature, simultaneity we expect to find the effect on climate change on different timescales by analysis the solar activity, earth movement (nutation, rift and volcano activity) and the others greenhouse gases using EMD method."


Cheers.

[TollyWally]

"I'm in the same state as these zealots, and I wish to apologize to the world on behalf of the State of Washington for having taught them how to write."

I too must apologize!

[Knut Sand]

Interesting reading Guillermo.

Cooling the next 20 years. Right now we have the best weather we can imagine here in Norway, a bit windy, right here, right now, maybe...

The fig 4 and the fig 6 show that the CO2 level (fig 4), have had a steady rise since 1960 and an extremely rise since 1990's. There is a drop in CO2 from 1940 to 1960, which I wonder somewhat about...

Temperature (fig 6) show that they assume a drop in the temperature to come, now. Well; If I use my imagination on that one, assume that the temperature drop will be something like for the period 1040 - 1960 let's assume 0,5 °C. And since the variables also tend to increase; lets add another 0,1 °C to that again... The average impression (for me) is still a pretty steep increasing line. I've never said that we can rule out forest fires, volcanoes, sun spots, solar activity. But I think we're puttin our (significant) mark at the climate in addition to the natural variations.

Then again; there was a temp drop from 1940 and there was a CO2 drop in the same period. Was there any activities going on at that time that can explain this fall? Some volcanoes that didn't erupt? Some forest fires that didn't burn, solar activities? I was trying to think of the WWII as a factor, but couldn't think of anything but fires and weapons and fires there too.... That should surely increase the level of CO2. Then maybe.... A large scale war is also a battle of resources, steel, oil.... factories? The average man on the street didn't get around to fill gas all the time, transport was kept at a "minimum", that's a normal reaction to subs with an unfriendly attitude. So, can it be that due to this, the average consumption went down? In fact, enough to cause this drop?

I do not know, as perfect as I am, I still haven't figured that one out.... But I think we can pretty much choose to which level we will put our mark on the climate (changes).

On the other hand, the way we use these days...:
If I live to be a 110, I assume that I'll hear this from one of my childrens children; "What?? you used oil to make plastic bags of them, to carry stuff home from the shop, and you used them only once??? And you used gas , even only to go for a spin??

[Pericles]

Knut,

What's your opinion of this conclusion.

"The whole of modern civilisation has been made possible by a period of solar stability within a band of less than 4 Watts per square metre. It will not be a result of anything we do if solar changes suddenly go outside that band. On a balance of probability it is more likely that the TSI will soon drop back from the recent unusual highs but remaining within the band of 4 Watts per square metre. It would need the arrival of the next ice age to go significantly below 1363 but even a reduction down to 1365 from present levels could introduce a dangerous level of cooling depending on where the tipping point currently lies.

A period several decades of reduced solar activity will quickly need more emissions producing activity to SAVE the planet yet nonetheless the populations of most living species will be decimated. At present population levels a repeat of the Little Ice Age a mere 400 years ago will cause mass starvation worldwide. Does anyone really think that the CO2 we produce is effective enough to reduce that risk to zero when we have plenty of astronomic evidence of an imminent reduction in solar activity?

And, moreover, the real world temperature movements are currently a good fit with the solar driver theory both as regards the warming spell, the subsequent stall and the recent turn downwards.

The AGW risk analysis process (if anyone ever bothered with one) is seriously flawed."

See full article here. http://co2sceptics.com/news.php?id=1396

Regards,

Perry

[safewalrus]

Hell Guillermo and we thought the dark skins and black hair came with the wreck of the Armada!! didn't realised it was because you had walked here!! Damn Celts get everywhere! Actually I have believed that the 'seventh' Celtic Nation was Galicia, (the other six being - Eire, Caledonia, Mann, Kernow, Cymry, Britany) Welcome to the tribe - brother!!

[Pericles]

The sun has a total luminosity output of 386 YottaWatts
(386,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 watts)

The significance of which may be read at http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/

Regards,

Perry

SF, Guillermo should be welcoming the other Celts to his original Galician group, rather than Kernow welcoming him.

It’s Official: British (a.k.a. America’s Founders) Not Diverse At All

By Steve Sailer

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2007/04/blood-of-isles.html

[Knut Sand]

Originally Posted by Pericles

The sun has a total luminosity output of 386 YottaWatts
(386,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 watts)

The Vikings/Normans were incredibly dangerous—their conquests ranged from the Volga to North America, from Greenland to Sicily—for the paradoxical reason that during the Dark Ages they cooperated with each other better than their less ferocious victims did. (To defend against Viking raids, Europeans eventually evolved feudalism, the fundamental institution of the Middle Ages, to support the expensive knights in shining armor needed to rapidly mobilize and defeat a Viking raid.)

Well, that can't all be hitting us like that, 386 E24 Watts...
Earth is 12 600 000 m in diameter. 1,25 E14 m2 directed towards the sun at all times.

So if you divide the Energy on the area of land, that will give me 3,1 E12 Watt/ M2 (3 100 000 000 000 W/M2) Standard cooking plate is approx 20 cm across. That again would be hit by 9,7 E10 Watt. Ooops, that would boil 1 Litre of water (20° - 100°) in 0,0000034 seconds? Better get an umbrella, cover it with aluminium foil...

It's probably the total energy from the sun (maybe over some period) but the site you quote have in fact a discussion on that figure, sorry for the cheap argument. Just couldn't let it pass....

To get that more accurate, I think we should consider the earth's average distance from the sun x 2, and calculate the area of a sphere with that diameter and zzzzzzz......

Quite impressed with the amount of ammo you have available.

Then; to the main issue here; You have probably noticed some anger towards persons using the wrong abbreviations for some Nationalities? What you do here is far much worse; You generalize; "The Vikings/Normans were incredibly dangerous"; I object strongely to that simplification.
Also; calling the period the "dark ages"when we used some good men to educate you, teach you travel and shipbuilding. If we had not done that, it's my meaning that you would have remained worthless shore/ landbased creatures. And to evolve feudalism as a "defence" is pretty much to treat plaque with cholera.

[Knut Sand]

Originally Posted by Knut Sand

And to evolve feudalism as a "defence" is pretty much to treat plaque with cholera.

OOpps, that line could also be read as that we were the plaque... And that were of course not my intention....
Not at all.

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by safewalrus

....Actually I have believed that the 'seventh' Celtic Nation was Galicia, (the other six being - Eire, Caledonia, Mann, Kernow, Cymry, Britany)...

You're limiting the Celts to the British Isles only, but those are just some of the many Celtic tribes.

Celts (name coming from the greek word 'keltoi': the audacious) were also called 'Galos' by the romans, so every name in Europe with the particle 'gal' in it has to do with the galos-gauls-celts.

So we have Galicia in Spain; Galicia in Poland and Ukraine; the great Gallia covering parts of France, Belgium, Switzerland, Holland and Germany; all the way down to Galatasaray in Turkey (the old Galacia, or Galatea, where the galateans were from; remember St. Paul) and finally Portugal, the port of the galos (Porto).

As you can see, in the Isles you were a late addition to the 'Gauls empire'. As Perry says, don't welcome us to the tribe: your a part of ours, brother!

Cheers.

[Pericles]

In May 1982, I was in Phoenix Arizona. The daily temperature was around 90 F, say 40 C, anyway very hot. Check the temperatures in June 2008.

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/

It snowed in Washington.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...eather09m.html

Skiing in Aspen

http://www.9news.com/news/article.as...3380&catid=188

Es muy interesante!

http://www.icecap.us/

Perry

[the1much]

still in the 100's here,,,,has been for over a month,,,and them "northern" states have early and late snow all the time,,,,next week it'll be 90f there,,hehe

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by Knut Sand

.....when we used some good men to educate you....

Well, well, well: we indeed used some good men and women to educate you!

http://www.pilegrim.no/page.php?id=1125404256

It took us a lot of years, but finally we did it!

Cheers.

[masalai]

Guillermo, Thank you very much for that most edifying history lesson, Why aren't teachers like that? I could have been a historian or my memory may have been better for the effort....

Perry you seem to be on a mission, I think you may be preaching to the converted or abject heathens (me?), best wishes....

[DanishBagger]

He he, perserverance

[Guillermo]

Thank you masalai,
Nowadays all of us behave in a more civilized manner: At the Catoira Festival, Galicians and Scandinavians get drunk together in a Bachian brotherhood.....

See: http://www.vikinga.es/ (pages in english)

Cheers.