What Do We Think About Climate Change

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by Knut Sand

Hey Gully, thats the energy we use, not what we leave behing to make that use....

I believe there may be a difference to that, and what it may imply the the climate change. If I remember correctly there's a forcing in heat input caused by greenhouse gases around 1,6-1,8 W/m2 (I'll try to look that one up). And that's far more than the energy we use...

Knut,
15 terawatts is the total energy we use (2008), including the one used to extract and process oils, nuclear material, etc., as well as the energy from renewable sources which depend on the Sun. All energy we use ends in the form of heat (mostly) or new materials, these last not influencing athmospheric temperatures at least in the short term. So the real figure for my little study is most probably lower than the 15 asumed terawatts. But you brought in an interesting point, as it is not counted the energy produced in exotermic industrial processes' reactions. I have to recognize I have no idea of how much can be its global amount, but I think we can asume, for my little entertainment's purposes, it is of the magnitude of the renewable plus the 'enthropy diminishing' one parts, so the total figure of 15 terawatts can still be usable to compare things.

Greenhouse gasses forcing is a different physical process, in which the radiations which balance is studied are basically generated from the incoming energy of the Sun (as we saw, man's is a power of four smaller, well within the variation of Sun's) and don't forget GHGs are not only anthropogenic, but mainly natural.

About the "mechanical" processes of the CO2, as you talked about in your following post, maybe you are interested in reading this: Estimation of the Radiative Forcing for CO2 Doubling and this "Calculating the Climatic Impacts of Increased CO2: The Issue of Model Validation"

Most interesting from the first work is this statement: "absorbed energy depends very little on the layer thickness (optical density)" and from the second one is the handwritten note stating uncertainty in the albedo effect is in the range of 10 W/m2. Compare that with the 0.1 W/m2 of human energy rate and the 1.4 W/m2 or even 4 W/m2 of the doubling CO2 estimated forcing.

About your comment on "we still keep on adding CO2 out there" let me tell you even if 1500 GtC coming from oil reserves would be burnt until 2100, the athmospheric concentration of CO2 would only increase to about 570 ppm, much lower than what Earth (and life) has experienced for most of the time in the last 500 million years. And plants will be happy, producing more food for humankind in a quite probably cooler Earth, what will save us from starving (we'll talk about this later).

HAPPY NEW "HEALTHY CO2" YEAR EVERYBODY!!!!

[Marco1]

Originally Posted by wet feet

As we are clearly in the presence of an intellectual colossus,I will be delighted if he can advise us of the usual situation when material is added to a body of water.

If you add sand into a glass of water, the level rises. The situation can not be reproduced by silt from rivers simply because the oceans do not behave like a glass of water. To begin they are not flat and have mountains and valleys, and second the contribution of silt by the rivers in comparison to the total volume of the oceans combined is insignificant.

However you don't have to believe me. All you need to do is check the real time sea level data, not the one that is "projected", computer modelled, or altered and deleted by fellow believers.

I own a water front property and have so for 21 years. I also inherited a farm that is water front from my parents who owned it for 50 years. The level of the water has remained constant for all this years and we are talking about tidal water not an inland lake. High and low tide remained constant and the frequency of king tides has not changed either. In 50 years a lot of silt mast have gone in the ocean yet it did not make any difference because it's relative volume is insignificant.

You should have just had your summer king, right? Looks like Tuvalu is positioning itself for a huge recompensation from western nations because they happen to have built on an atoll. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNql8BiAijw I was struck by the clever sailboats of the kids.

[Guillermo]

Knut,
Don't miss either this other Dietze's work and its discussion:
Estimation of the solar fraction and Svensmark factor

Cheers.

[Marco1]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

Well, Nils-Axel Mörner investigated the possible slowing in Earth's rotational speed because of the GWA allegued increase in the sea level due to melting of ice in the poles and he found none, concluding there has not been such increasing of level in the last decades. But this also means Mörner thinks global warming could in fact alter rotation of Earth.

Cheers.

That's interesting. However since we had global warming and cooling and all in between already, has the rotation of the earth ever changed that we know or suspect of? ...well besides the long day recorded in the Bible that is.

[Marco1]

Originally Posted by mark775

You should have just had your summer king, right? Looks like Tuvalu is positioning itself for a huge recompensation from western nations because they happen to have built on an atoll. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNql8BiAijw I was struck by the clever sailboats of the kids.

We had a moderate king tyde a week ago just above one meter. it is very steady.



As for the islanders who claim we are respondible for their floods it is pure opportunistic nonsese. If the sea would be rising there would be hard data available and those who like me live waterfront would be the first to know. Alarm bells would be going off all over the world. There is no such thing besides what is made up for political purposes.

What is fact is that some island sink and other rise. The earth crust is not set on concrete but on magma and floats on it and therefore MOVES up or down or sideways. The island may be sinking not the sea rising. I feel sorry for them but they have no one to blaim, nor can they do anything about it.

[hoytedow]

They can do what all refugees do. Move.

[Guillermo]

The Climategate on Finnish television (subtitles in English)







Enjoy.

[Guillermo]

Wow! Look at what an Eco-site has just posted!
http://www.ecowho.com/articles/42/Cl...going_on?.html

Last words following their conclusions, which I subscribe (all of them) entirely:
"So still keeping doing what you can to reduce your adverse effect on the environment, on the chance that they are right (plus cutting down your pollution is a good thing anyways, you don't need a climate model to work that out); but do keep an open mind on this whole situation. The last thing we and the planet need is people jumping to the wrong conclusions for the wrong reasons; there is not much slack for the taking if we are wrong."

(Bolded is mine)

Most amazing and encouraging! Almost as amazing and encouraging as seeing Boston finally converting to the realists side!


Best regards.

[masrapido]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

Knut,
Don't miss either this other Dietze's work and its discussion:
Estimation of the solar fraction and Svensmark factor

Cheers.

Guillermo, you are posting many links coming from scientists.

How do you know they are right? Scientists, as we have seen in the emails fiasco, very good liars. Who says any of your "arguments" are true?

You are being taken for a ride in a fight between the scientists.

What if they are simply jealous at the success of the pro-change fuckwits and are trying to get under the spotlight just to be able to tell their mamas they were on the TV last night?

The picture about the climate is incomplete and it is still early to draw any definite conclusions. Your arguments that it is not true are just as bad as the "climate is changing".

There's not enough data to confirm either way.

[masrapido]

How come some believe in "god" when there's absolutely no scientific data to confirm, or deny, existence of any such "supreme" being...?

I can show you some graphs that show clearly that there is no such thing....

[Jimbo1490]

Originally Posted by masrapido

Guillermo, you are posting many links coming from scientists.

How do you know they are right? Scientists, as we have seen in the emails fiasco, very good liars. Who says any of your "arguments" are true?

You are being taken for a ride in a fight between the scientists.

Pick the side whose hypothesis has proved capable of skillful prediction (Hint: it's NOT the AGW side)

Originally Posted by masrapido

There's not enough data to confirm either way.

Funny how it was only ever the AGW side that said (and still say) "The science is settled; now it's time for action!"

Jimbo

[masrapido]

Originally Posted by Jimbo1490

Pick the side whose hypothesis has proved capable of skillful prediction (Hint: it's NOT the AGW side)

And it's not the deniers side either. They are like roman and orthodox, jewish and muslim believers. They believe in the same thing yet fight and hate each other. And wouldn't even admit it, although it is plain obvious.

Funny how it was only ever the AGW side that said (and still say) "The science is settled; now it's time for action!"

Jimbo

Many opposed to your AGW have said the same thing for their choosen side right here.

And these are exactly my points. Neither side is right, and still both sides have valid arguments for their theories.

The problem is that there are few tru scientists left nowadays. Too much money and too many vested interests, religiously indoctrinated individuals pretending to be "scientists". Fatalists with their own little personal agendas, just like that immunologist from Europe somewhere, who had created "avian flu", and when that flipped over, he simply created the 'swine flu".

And he was the principal advisor to EU and UN...

******* money-greedy capitalist swines manipulating the truth to make money on stupid and gullible masses who, ironically, have no choice but to avail themselves to the "authority" of a "scientist".

But masses learn... eventually.

[Marco1]

La cucaracha
La cucaracha
ya no puede caminar....
porque le falta
porque no tiene
marijuana que fumar..
chun chan...

[masrapido]

Somehow I was expecting, marco/mark/captain mark/zed/ whatever else are your nicks, to raise your childlish head and say something that stupid.

And you surpassed my trepid expectations with flying stup...colours.

Congratulations.