What Do We Think About Climate Change

[Jimbo1490]

Originally Posted by masrapido

If you dislike my "rants" go read gardening forums. Your "world" is safely falling apart whatever you say or do.

There's really only one world. If it's "falling apart", then it's falling apart for you too.

Jimbo

[Jimbo1490]

Originally Posted by elhix

Bummer about the human inability to suspend their urge to BELIEVE!!! and not jump into and defend the corner that confirms their existing bias. The jury is out on anthropogenic warming and will probably stay that way due to the impossibility of someone coming up with PROOF. There will only ever be evidence and that - no matter how strong - can always be refuted. Just ask the loons over in the Creationist forum.

The evidence is already at hand. Look now and see who are the true 'deniers'.

Jimbo

"...and not jump into and defend the corner that confirms their existing bias... Just ask the loons over in the Creationist forum." - Stunning how he can just take a step back and look at it so objectively.

[Guillermo]

The extraordinary Quing-Bin Lu peer-reviewed paper states that the observed data from 1850 up to the present seem to indicate that CFCs conspired with Cosmic Rays are the major culprits for not only atmospheric ozone depletion but global warming for around 1950 to 2000. The observed data point to the possibility that the global warming observed in the late 20th century was dominantly caused by CFCs, modulated by Cosmic Rays Effect-driven ozone depletion. This depletion is expected to decrease after 2010 due to the CR cycles, but the Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) will keep decreasing.

As they found that global surface temperature change has an excellent linear dependence on the EESC, if their observations are confirmed authors expect to observe a continued decrease in global surface temperature—“global cooling”. That is, global warming observed in the late 20th century may be reversed with the coming decades. Indeed, global cooling may have started since 2002, based on the observed data. They think this could be very important to the Earth and humans in the 21st century and that it certainly deserves for further examinations and studies.

The paper also says that due to the increasing trend of the CR intensity, the recovery of the ozone hole may be significantly delayed; the full recovery might not occur even by the end of this century.


I have bought the paper, but I think I may not upload it here as this could breach publishing rights. It is available on-line at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...02b75dafd01dc3


Cheers.

[elhix]

Originally Posted by mark775

"...and not jump into and defend the corner that confirms their existing bias... Just ask the loons over in the Creationist forum." - Stunning how he can just take a step back and look at it so objectively.

I was being ironic. Mostly.

[Marco1]

Guillermo...
This is in deed an extraordinary finding, extraordinary also that no one noticed before or if noticed swept under the carpet. CO2 is a much more lucrative target. CFC is an old hat.

I think that another extraordinary fact must also be mentioned.
The widely known Copenhagen circus fiasco, when very welcomed by those who like to think for themselves, was defeated not by the so called skeptics who were rigorously blocked and banned but by the victimhood addicted ****** of the third world with one honourable exception, the president of Brazil. The agreement was defeated by those who had to gain the most, those who would have received billions of undeserved aid for no reason but their own incompetence. The more incompetent the more money. The greens and all the other environmentalist were on a winning strike too. Yet they were too greedy,they want more and more, it was not enough, the protest were about we are not doing enough, we want more!

In this case I thank God for human idiocy. They killed the goose of the golden eggs and the goose will never be able to lay eggs again.
Alleluia.
Have a Merry Christmas you all.
Yes I know I am early, that is because we kick start the day and because I celebrate on the 24th.

Hooroo

Marc from Sydney

PS

A very special merry Christmas to my Alter Ego Mark775 and why not rich blessings from Santa also to El Zorro.

[hoytedow]

A very merry Christmas to all of you who believe(in God).

Merry Christmas, Marco and anyone else celebrating and not online tomorrow.

[masrapido]

Originally Posted by Jimbo1490

There's really only one world. If it's "falling apart", then it's falling apart for you too.

Jimbo

Hi Jimbo, I was refering to usanian economical disaster. As for my world, they destroyed it long time ago, so for us the only way is into recovery. Which is what we are, slowly, achieving.

As for the climate side of the world, that is true. And in my opinion we humans are contributing to the changes in the environment. Not necessarilly limited to warming, the changes we cause are numerous and in their apparently small ways are affecting the nature. just look at the coral reef near Australia, or the one in Carribean seas. Or Amazonian jungla, where humans have already exterminated 45% of it (but of course there are the "conservatives" who claim only 35% is destroyed, as if that is okay...)

Not to mention our megacities, like Mexico City, which is now so heavy it is sinking into the marshland on which it sits. Or where 20 million people are producing so much smog, they cannot see the sun on a sunny day.

Humanity is not shooting itself in the foot. It's shooting itself between the eyes. The debate about global warming is held by two sides and both are deeply burried in their own denials stopping them to see the forest for the tree before them.

Neither will be there in a near future. They'll cut it down in the name of "progress" (profit).

[masrapido]

Marco/mark is wishing himself a happy christmass...funny. Why are you ignoring your other alter egos? They may turn on you...

Hi. Yeah, I've heard that "sinking" thing before. It's not the weight of the city, as some believe - it is that the city was built on a lake. If you have an interest in history, check out Michener's Mexico (maybe Gary Jenings' Aztec, as well) and it will explain much. Anyway, my house is on rock.
This is a view from where we sometimes take comida. Not quite Mexico but Sante Fe. If you know Mexico at all, you'll know that there are many municipalities and colonies forming the greater Mexico City area.

If you look closely, below the most interesting building, you'll see a pasero, or micro-bus (we just call 'em "micros"). These little buggers are the bane of D.F., or Mexico City. They puke whatever it is the nastiest diesels puke and are responsible for a vast majority of the pollution - They are government run.
This shot shows some of the diversity strangers don't think of when they think "Mexico City". It's just on the other side of the defining highway mentioned below.

It is from right off the Periferico, the road that circles the city, and is from the parking lot of a Swiss restaurant showing some more modern buildings.
This

While not technically In D.F., is just on the other side of that hill in the background of the first picture. We take the kids to ride horses at a club here. I hope you notice, that while the lower parts of town have horrendous smog at times, I almost never see it because I prefer the start of the rainy season there and when it's cold and smoggy we are usually in Cuernavaca.
Hope this opens your eyes a bit about a wonderful city with an official population of about 27 million - depending on who's taking the poll! More restaurants, more culture, more museums, more people, and almost more fountains than any place else in the world. Insurgentes is the longest avenue in the world. On some days you can pick between horse races, opera, any number of entertainers, Formula 1, symphony, have any food you want, then do antros until tamales at sunrise.
Talked to my wife a bit ago, it snowed there today. We don't lock the cars in our neighborhood and the house doesn't even have locks..to dispel another myth.

[Senad]

If you look closely, below the most interesting building, you'll see a pasero, or micro-bus (we just call 'em "micros"). These little buggers are the bane of D.F., or Mexico City. They puke whatever it is the nastiest diesels puke and are responsible for a vast majority of the pollution - They are government run.

Of course. The government is the right wing conservative.

Senad, don't start but why don't you give me a message and explain what you are talking about. I was trying to sooth th...ings here.

[Guillermo]

So cosmic rays seem to have at least a double effect on Earth's temperature:
- One through the link with CFCs, as per Lu's work
- The second through low clouds formation, as per Svenmark's work, already multicited in this thread.

BTW, on top of their previous work, Svensmark et al. have published a recent 2009 paper in the Geophysical Research Letters where a link between the sun, cosmic rays, aerosols, and liquid-water clouds appears to exist on a global scale:

Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds


Cheers.

[Guillermo]

Another interesting article in Geophysical Research Letters (this one on the "warmists" side ):

A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008

"A precipitous drop in North American temperature in 2008, commingled with a decade-long fall in global mean temperatures, are generating opinions contrary to the inferences drawn from the science of climate change. We use an extensive suite of model simulations and appraise factors contributing to 2008 temperature conditions over North America. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic impact in 2008 was to warm the region's temperatures, but that it was overwhelmed by a particularly strong bout of naturally-induced cooling resulting from the continent's sensitivity to widespread coolness of the tropical and northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The implication is that the pace of North American warming is likely to resume in coming years, and that climate is unlikely embarking upon a prolonged cooling."

Received 29 September 2009; accepted 10 November 2009; published 8 December 2009.

Citation: Perlwitz, J., M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, T. Xu, and A. Kumar (2009), A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23706, doi:10.1029/2009GL041188.

(I'm waiting for the rebuttal )

Cheers.