What Do We Think About Climate Change

[masalai]

Guillermo,
But where and how? - - - - Nicely spread out gently as needed over farmlands - one can live in hope - - or - - DUMPED in torrents at the wrong time and wrong place wreaking destruction and disaster in its wake - - or - - solidly precipitating over mid oceanic regions?

[Jimbo1490]

In all the 'debate' over the halon gases back in the 80's and 90's, I never once heard anyone offer a plausible way for these gases to get into the stratosphere. They are, after all, about 11X heavier than air, so that they naturally sink down to ground level rather than float up to the stratosphere. Their constituent elemental gases are lighter than air, of course. But they do not break down into their constituents in the lower strata of the atmosphere; not enough (or any) high-energy UV down here. They have to (somehow) get to the stratosphere in their heavy state whereupon they can break down, and only then do they become ozone depleters.

But how do they get there?

Jimbo

[Jimbo1490]

Originally Posted by masalai

Guillermo,
But where and how? - - - - Nicely spread out gently as needed over farmlands - one can live in hope - - or - - DUMPED in torrents at the wrong time and wrong place wreaking destruction and disaster in its wake - - or - - solidly precipitating over mid oceanic regions?

Yeah it's a bit like the talk of 'Global Warming', isn't it? If the Northern hemisphere cooled by 10 degrees, but the southern heated by 10 degrees, by the averaging method, we'd have NO 'Global Warming'! But I bet the change would be dramatic!

This is not just a mind game, because in many respects this is exactly what happened during the 20th century (though not by 10 degrees).

Jimbo

[yipster]

without reading the whole thread forgive me if its been brought up before but watching discovery channal
i learned how plm 10.000 years back the polar ice melted and via the med filled the black sea creating the story of noach

so much water i than figgered possibly have coursed moses passage opening the water in egypt as well, what do you think?
girlfrend says it may but pope will be to bissy with condoms

[rambo!]

As I understand it the melting ice will not rise the ocean level up to Ararat again. The melting of sea ice will not affect the level, only the land ice will cause a rise in level (whitch is bad enought for many areas, the Netherlands for instance).
A bigger problem will be food supply and a mass movement of peaple caused by change of making a decent living and income.

There are a few more living on this planet today than it was at Noach´s time and it will probably not be possible to fill up your boat with only animals and say..."sorry mate´s but I´m off to start a new civilisation"...

And if the ice melted at the time of Noach causing the flooding, Moses was a few years later and the ocean level was then more to today´s levels, otherwise Sinai desert would have been flooded and the passage much longer.

So if..and when...hope the pope has enough condoms to bouli a life raft.

[Guillermo]

Don't be worried. Even the IPCC predicts a rise of sea level of around 50 cm in the next 100 years.

And it is even possible it will descend

Cheers.

[rambo!]

Thanks Guillermo, you and me has totally different belifs on the way global warming will happen. I respect your belif and thoughts as I cannot prove a different scenario.
But it´s up to what you or I chose to belive in, and here we are on different sides.

From the way I read available reports I´m not so optimistic, but veryone is free to have their own opinion and live after that.

Prediction models are just software and models....just as anything else nowdays... common sence might be wrong sometimes...but it´s mostly on the safe side of the problems.

[Guillermo]

Originally Posted by Jimbo1490

But how do they get there?

They talk about long residence time and turbulent mixing.....

Cheers.

[Guillermo]

Rambo
Sea level has risen (or land sinking) in the Med a couple of meters since the times of the Romans, Alexandria, etc.
What has happened to humankind around here because of that? Answer: Nothing.
Here we are, so happy. Roman civilization and others came and dissapeared and were substituted by new civilizations. So what? We have now some nice submarine ruins to visit and investigate, and a rich past from which to learn, that's all.

Adaptation, that's the name of the game. Humankind has been playing it succesfully for thousands of years.

Cheers.

[rambo!]

If one billion homes put their cars running in their livingrooms they will probably all be dead within a week.
If they have their cars running outside, it´s just a bigger room....turbulent mixing.. sounds great...its just a bigger room and more air to pollute before you reach toxic levels....so the question is...is there enough fossile fuel left to pollute the air....

[rambo!]

"Humankind has been playing it succesfully for thousands of years"
Thanks Guillermo, I have to evaluate this a little before posting back, maybe the speed of change might be a problem....but I will give your argument some time of reflection.

Talk later

rgds
Olle

[hoytedow]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

Rambo
Sea level has risen (or land sinking) in the Med a couple of meters since the times of the Romans, Alexandria, etc.
What has happened to humankind around here because of that? Answer: Nothing.
Here we are, so happy. Roman civilization and others came and dissapeared and were substituted by new civilizations. So what? We have now some nice submarine ruins to visit and investigate, and a rich past from which to learn, that's all.

Adaptation, that's the name of the game. Humankind has been playing it succesfully for thousands of years.

Cheers.

The problem as I see it, is that the Greenies are afraid they don't have the adaptive powers to cope, so they whine.

[hoytedow]

I did manage to burn about 100 pounds of wood this weekend.

[Jimbo1490]

Originally Posted by rambo!

A bigger problem will be food supply and a mass movement of peaple caused by change of making a decent living and income.

Why would there be a problem with food production? Warmer has ALWAYS meant a wetter climate; more precipitation, not less. The ice ages were dry, dusty and stormy; that much is known from the sediments found in ice cores deposited during the ice ages. And with CO2 levels rising, crop yields all over the world have been increasing; that's 'old news' by now. There's no reason to believe that trend will not continue. If you believe we really are headed for 3-5 degrees more global average temps, then that means large portions of North America, Northern Europe and Asia will likely become arable, which they have not been for many centuries.

Most likely none of this will happen; we are just in a mild warming and will probably only add a degree or two more over the next century.


As for the issue of decreased ability of "making a decent living and income" you should be more concerned about negative impacts of the 'solutions' to the AGW bogeyman than the actual 'problem'.


Jimbo

[Jimbo1490]

Originally Posted by hoytedow

I did manage to burn about 100 pounds of wood this weekend.

100 pounds?? That's sissy stuff!

After the '04 storms, I had about 100 trees down on my land, about 90% oaks of various kinds. Many (about 25) were very large diameter (18-36") with very straight sections of 20' feet or more. I just hated to see all that great wood just burn, so I started milling them up with a big 90cc chainsaw I bought just for the purpose. After a couple of logs, I decided it was too much like work, (not to mention one qt. of gas for each cut) so I gathered them all up for a big bonfire. I estimated about 50 000 lbs of wood burned that day. Flames were about 40' high. Wish I had taken some pics of that

Anyway, here' a pic of the first log to get turned into lumber. The bar on that saw is 30". Virtually all the other logs in the picture (and many more not in) were burned a couple of months after this was taken.



Jimbo