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  #3451  
Old 09-22-2009, 05:16 AM
Pericles's Avatar
Pericles Pericles is offline
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Boston,

You wrote "well it was open enough to get a couple of western commercial ships through for the first time." as if it were stunning news.

Who cares if a German shipping company uses a nuclear powered Russian ice breaker to open the ice for two of its ships? Not me, because the Ruskies have been using the Arctic route since 1979.

You appear to be as hoodwinked by the MSM propaganda as the mealy mouthed Richard Galpin. Might I suggest that you now be silent on the issue and only be thought a fool, rather than write further and confirm your gullibility to all and sundry.

Here are the facts. http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/search?q=n++w+passage

Respectfully,

Pericles
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  #3452  
Old 09-22-2009, 05:23 AM
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The debate is only over in the mind of zero growth fanatics like Boston. In reality there has never been a debate nor was the issue framed for there to be one. Government grant whores and societal parasites can't tolerate even the hint of a debate as its results will cause massive unemployment in their fields. About the only area where the debate is over concerns the lack of real provable evidence of the anthropogenic nature of climate change, and that the computer models used by the alarmists, will, with monotonous regularity reflect the distorted data that is fed to them to support the claims of the social engineers of the left. All the minutae posted by Boston is just a smoke screen to hid the fact that he has no facts when it comes to proving the anthropogenic nature of climate change, he has just supposition and computer model results.
  #3453  
Old 09-22-2009, 05:27 AM
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Ill be happy to print the whole thing for ya
that way you can see that I reported the articles data accurately and that it is you who is skewing the facts

Quote:
Two German ships have become the first Western commercial vessels to navigate the Northeast Passage - a shipping route which goes from Asia to Europe around the Russian Arctic.

One of the captains told the BBC that their journey opened new, exciting possibilities for the whole international shipping community.

Valeriy Durov, shipmaster of The Beluga Foresight, is your archetypal captain: a short man with a big moustache and a sense of great authority in his voice.

"I was slightly surprised by what we saw," he told us as we stood on the bridge of his cargo lifter.

"There was virtually no ice on most of the route. Twenty years ago, when I worked in the eastern part of the Arctic, I couldn't even imagine something like this.


"I think it will soon be possible to navigate the Northeast Passage all year round. We were escorted by an ice-breaker but, frankly, we could have done without it. This is great news for our industry."

Mr Durov's ship had just arrived in Arkhangel, a major sea port in north-western Russia. It was met by a cold, unpleasant drizzle and grey autumnal skies.

It will signal the rebirth of this shipping route, and the renaissance of the whole of the Russian North
Viktor Vorobyov, port official

The numerous potholes on the port's berths had turned into deep puddles. To get to the mooring wall, you had to jump over them, navigating around endless stacks of pipes, wood planks and containers rather like a character in an old-fashioned computer game.

The scene was anything but glamorous. But it deserved so much more.

A real breakthrough

The Beluga Foresight is one of those ships that make history.

Experts in Russia say its journey from South Korea to the Russian North was a real breakthrough.

The route of the Northeast Passage

In the past, no foreign ships were allowed to cross the Northeast Passage.

But now Russia's security concerns have given way to the desire for a slice of the fat pie which is the international shipping business.

"This is an event of huge strategic importance," said chief commercial officer of the Arkhangel Sea Port Viktor Vorobyov. "It will signal the rebirth of this shipping route, and the renaissance of the whole of the Russian North."

Mr Vorobyov hopes that his port will soon become a major hub for trans-continental shipping.

And, from the business point of view, this would make perfect sense.

German freighters in the North East Passage in a photo released by Beluga Shipping
The German freighters were accompanied by Russian icebreakers

Going via the Russian Arctic cuts the distance from, say, South Korea to the Netherlands by up to 75%. This means the time in transit can be cut by as much as 10 days. And, as Captain Durov points out, "it is much safer up north: there are no pirates".

The Beluga Foresight is, then, setting a very important precedent.

Whether other ships will follow in its wake is still unclear: industry insiders point out that Russia's Arctic infrastructure is virtually non-existent, while the bureaucratic procedures are complicated, costly and time-consuming.

Environmental concern

But the opportunity is now there. And - as far as sailors are concerned - a fanfare for a triumph of shipping might be in order.

For environmentalists, however, this journey is more of a call for alarm bells.

"This is a very clear signal of how weak the Arctic ice has become," says Alexei Kokorin of WWF Russia.

The Beluga Foresight
The Northeast Passage route has alarmed some conservationists

"The area of really heavy ice in the Arctic is now 10 times smaller than 10 or 20 years ago. Global warming is becoming more and more dominant - and it will affect all of us".

Some experts predict that there will probably be no ice at all left in the Arctic within the next few decades.

This might be good news for people like Captain Durov who will no longer have to keep a copy of Navigating Through Ice next to his seat on the bridge. But it might also spell disaster for low-lying areas around the world, from Dhaka to London.
looks like a lot of facts and data reported in my last few that add up to
ice is melting because the oceans are warming
or at least most people would go ahead and put those two together
but then again this is denier central

hmmm
and a lot of facts and data in the following also show clearly there is no real debate concerning were all this extra co2 is coming from

Quote:
Over the last 150 years, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have risen from 280 to nearly 380 parts per million (ppm). The fact that this is due virtually entirely to human activities is so well established that one rarely sees it questioned. Yet it is quite reasonable to ask how we know this.

One way that we know that human activities are responsible for the increased CO2 is simply by looking at historical records of human activities. Since the industrial revolution, we have been burning fossil fuels and clearing and burning forested land at an unprecedented rate, and these processes convert organic carbon into CO2. Careful accounting of the amount of fossil fuel that has been extracted and combusted, and how much land clearing has occurred, shows that we have produced far more CO2 than now remains in the atmosphere. The roughly 500 billion metric tons of carbon we have produced is enough to have raised the atmospheric concentration of CO2 to nearly 500 ppm. The concentrations have not reached that level because the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere have the capacity to absorb some of the CO2 we produce.* However, it is the fact that we produce CO2 faster than the ocean and biosphere can absorb it that explains the observed increase.
Another, quite independent way that we know that fossil fuel burning and land clearing specifically are responsible for the increase in CO2 in the last 150 years is through the measurement of carbon isotopes. Isotopes are simply different atoms with the same chemical behavior (isotope means “same type”) but with different masses. Carbon is composed of three different isotopes, 14C, 13C and 12C. 12C is the most common. 13C is about 1% of the total. 14C accounts for only about 1 in 1 trillion carbon atoms.
CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has quite a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere. This is because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (12C vs. 13C); thus they have lower 13C/12C ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same 13C/12C ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average 13C/12C ratio of the atmosphere decreases.
Isotope geochemists have developed time series of variations in the 14C and 13C concentrations of atmospheric CO2. One of the methods used is to measure the 13C/12C in tree rings, and use this to infer those same ratios in atmospheric CO2. This works because during photosynthesis, trees take up carbon from the atmosphere and lay this carbon down as plant organic material in the form of rings, providing a snapshot of the atmospheric composition of that time. If the ratio of 13C/12C in atmospheric CO2 goes up or down, so does the 13C/12C of the tree rings. This isn’t to say that the tree rings have the same isotopic composition as the atmosphere – as noted above, plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes, but as long as that preference doesn’t change much, the tree-ring changes wiil track the atmospheric changes.
Sequences of annual tree rings going back thousands of years have now been analyzed for their 13C/12C ratios. Because the age of each ring is precisely known** we can make a graph of the atmospheric 13C/12C ratio vs. time. What is found is at no time in the last 10,000 years are the 13C/12C ratios in the atmosphere as low as they are today. Furthermore, the 13C/12C ratios begin to decline dramatically just as the CO2 starts to increase — around 1850 AD. This is exactly what we expect if the increased CO2 is in fact due to fossil fuel burning. Furthermore, we can trace the absorption of CO2 into the ocean by measuring the 13C/12C ratio of surface ocean waters. While the data are not as complete as the tree ring data (we have only been making these measurements for a few decades) we observe what is expected: the surface ocean 13C/12C is decreasing. Measurements of 13C/12C on corals and sponges — whose carbonate shells reflect the ocean chemistry just as tree rings record the atmospheric chemistry — show that this decline began about the same time as in the atmosphere; that is, when human CO2 production began to accelerate in earnest.***
In addition to the data from tree rings, there are also of measurements of the 13C/12C ratio in the CO2 trapped in ice cores. The tree ring and ice core data both show that the total change in the 13C/12C ratio of the atmosphere since 1850 is about 0.15%. This sounds very small but is actually very large relative to natural variability. The results show that the full glacial-to-interglacial change in 13C/12C of the atmosphere — which took many thousand years — was about 0.03%, or about 5 times less than that observed in the last 150 years.
For those who are interested in the details, some relevant references are:
Stuiver, M., Burk, R. L. and Quay, P. D. 1984. 13C/12C ratios and the transfer of biospheric carbon to the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 89, 11,731-11,748.
Francey, R.J., Allison, C.E., Etheridge, D.M., Trudinger, C.M., Enting, I.G., Leuenberger, M., Langenfelds, R.L., Michel, E., Steele, L.P., 1999. A 1000-year high precision record of d13Cin atmospheric CO2. Tellus 51B, 170–193.
Quay, P.D., B. Tilbrook, C.S. Wong. Oceanic uptake of fossil fuel CO2: carbon-13 evidence. Science 256 (1992), 74-79
—————————

from scripts
How do we know that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere?
High precision measurements of atmospheric CO2 made by the Scripps CO2 Program and other organizations show that its average global concentration in 2006 was more than 381 ppm; about 70 ppm higher than the first direct atmospheric measurements made in the 1950s.* Records from Mauna Loa and the South Pole show nearly the same rate of rise over time; demonstrating that the rise is global in extent (see plot). Measurements from dozens of sites around the world now confirm the overall rise (NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division). Almost all of these measurements have been made by high precision non-dispersive infrared gas analyzers which are calibrated using internationally agreed protocols.* The standards used to calibrate the instruments are subject to rigorous international quality control procedures and peer review. The result is a series of datasets made by several laboratories in both hemispheres all confirming the current increase in atmospheric CO2.
How fast is CO2 increasing in the atmosphere and is this changing?
The rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 shows large variations from year to year. Initial high precision measurements of atmospheric CO2 showed average growth rates of less than 1 ppm/year in the 1950s and 1960s. However in the latter half of the 20th century and in the first few years of the 21st century the average growth rate had more than doubled to about 2 ppm/year.
How do we know that the CO2 increase is caused by human activites?
Industry data provides detailed *figures of fossil fuels used in various sectors. This data can be used to calculate the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere by combustion of the fuels. The emissions are more than sufficient to explain the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 Careful analysis of the atmospheric CO2 data collected by Scripps and other organizations shows that CO2 is increasing at a rate that is about 44% slower than would be expected if all the CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels stayed in the air. The real puzzle is to explain where the missing 44% of the emissions have gone. The answer is that this "missing" CO2 is absorbed by both the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere. On average over the last 50 years the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere have continued to "mop up" this amount of CO2. Whether they will continue to do this as atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to increase is a critical question and the subject of intense international research.
Other evidence for a human cause: 1) There are no known natural sources of CO2 sufficient to account for the recent increase. 2) There are no known sinks of CO2 sufficient to have absorbed all the CO2 from fossil-fuel burning. 3) For more than 10,000 years prior to the industrial revolution, atmospheric CO2 levels were essentially constant (see below), which shows that the recent increase is not natural. 4) The increase in CO2 has been accompanied by a decrease in O2 (see AORG) and by changes in the ratios of the isotopes of carbon (see below) in the CO2. The O2 and isotopes changes indicate that the CO2 increase was derived from the oxidation of old organic matter - consistent with burning fossil fuel. 5) The pattern of CO2 increase since 1958 has closely mirrored that of fossil-fuel burning (see plot).
Isn't the Mauna Loa record influenced by CO2 emitted by the volcano?
If one looks at the minute-by-minute data from Mauna Loa, one finds rare occasions when the CO2 is elevated from emissions from fumaroles upwind on the mountain. The fumaroles are emitting constantly, so the timing of the events depends on wind direction and not changes in volcanic activity. These events impact only a tiny faction of the data and are easily distinguished from rest of the record. The reported version of the Mauna Loa record has been “filtered” to remove these events, as well as other certain other local effects, as described in the early publications (see Keeling 1960 Tellus paper).
How much has atmospheric CO2 changed since the industrial and agricultural revolutions?
When snow falls it traps air. In polar and other regions where the snow never melts it eventually forms ice and this air is entrained in tiny bubbles. Typically about 100 mls of air are contained in every 1 kg of ice. Thus polar ice acts as a kind of an "air museum" providing us with information on the composition of the atmosphere up to more than half a million years ago in the past. Extraction and gas analysis techniques tell us what the concentrations of CO2 were in the atmosphere before 1950. In addition they overlap the direct atmospheric measurements since the 1950s and confirm the present rate of increase.
CO2 concentrations measured from ice collected at Law Dome glacier in the Antarctic show that atmospheric CO2 has been remarkably constant at about 270 to 280 ppm over about the last 1000 years until the 18th century when it began to rise. As of 2005, the level had risen to 378 ppm, an increase of 35%. On the basis of ice core records the current CO2 concentrations are unprecedented*for at least the last 650,000 years.
What are stable isotopes in atmospheric CO2 and why are these measured as well as its concentration?
CO2 molecules are made from the elements carbon and oxygen. Both carbon and oxygen contain isotopes which are atoms with the same numbers of protons but different numbers of neutrons. Because of this, the mass of each isotope is slightly different and this leads to CO2 molecules with different masses. The most common isotope of carbon, 98.9%, is carbon-12 denoted as 12C with an equal number of protons and neutrons in its nucleus. Carbon-13, denoted 13C, has 6 protons and 7 neutrons in its nucleus and is much less abundant at about 1.1%. Both physical and chemical processes in nature can discriminate against the heavier 13C atom thus changing the 13C/12C ratio of molecules of CO2.
These changes are very small but can easily be measured using modern isotope ratio mass spectrometers to 1 part in 100,000.* Because different sources of atmospheric CO2 have different 13C/12C ratios isotope measurements of CO2 can be used to "fingerprint" CO2. CO2 derived from the combustion of fossil fuels, for example, has a lower ratio of 13C to 12C than carbon in the oceans or emitted by volcanoes.

from Lowenz,com
How do we know that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere?
High precision measurements of atmospheric CO2 made by many scientific organizations around the world show that its average global concentration in 2008 was about 385 ppm and more than 100 ppm higher than its value at the beginning of the industrial revolution in the 18th century. Almost all of these measurements have been made by high precision non dispersive infra red gas analysers which are calibrated using internationally agreed protocols. The standards used to calibrate the instruments are subject to rigorous international quality control procedures and peer review. The result is a series of datasets made by several laboratories in both hemispheres all confirming the current increase in atmospheric CO2.

How fast is CO2 increasing in the atmosphere and is this changing?
The rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 shows large variations from year to year. Initial direct high precision measurements of atmospheric CO2 showed average growth rates of less than 1 ppm/year in the 1950s and 1960s. However in the latter half of the 20th century and in the first few years of the 21st century the average growth rate more than doubled to about 2 ppm/year.
How do we know that the CO2 increase is caused by human activities?

Industry data provides detailed figures of fossil fuels used in various sectors. This data can be used to calculate the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere by combustion of the fuels. The emissions are more than sufficient to explain the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. Careful analysis of atmospheric CO2 data collected by organizations around the world shows that CO2 is increasing at a rate that is about 44% slower than would be expected if all the CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels stayed in the air. The real puzzle is to explain where the missing 44% of the emissions has gone. The answer is that this "missing" CO2 is absorbed by both the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere. On average over the last 50 years the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere have continued to "mop up" this amount of CO2. Whether they will continue to do this as atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to increase is a critical question and the subject of intense international research.

But how do we know that this increase in CO2 really comes from fossil fuel combustion? Well it turns out that carbon contains isotopic “markers” which are very like fingerprints (see below). The distinctive isotopic character of the carbon contained in fossil fuels is transferred to the carbon in the CO2 released into the atmosphere when the fuels are burned and can easily be found using modern analytical instruments. This isotopic marker or fingerprint has been measured at many locations world wide and is smoking gun proof of the fossil fuel origins of increasing atmospheric CO2 since the industrial revolution. Also when fossil fuels are burned oxygen is removed from the atmosphere and atmospheric oxygen measurements made at a world wide network of sites confirm that atmospheric oxygen has been decreasing in parallel with increasing atmospheric CO2.


How much has atmospheric CO2 changed since the industrial and agricultural revolutions?
When snow falls it traps air. In polar and other regions where the snow never melts it eventually forms ice and this air is trapped in tiny bubbles. Typically about 100 mls of air are contained in every 1 kg of ice. Thus polar ice acts as a kind of an "air museum" providing us with information on the composition of the atmosphere up to more than half a million years ago in the past. Extraction and gas analysis techniques tell us what the concentrations of CO2 were in the atmosphere before 1950. In addition they overlap the direct atmospheric measurements since the 1950s and confirm the present rate of increase.

CO2 concentrations measured from ice collected at Law Dome glacier in the Antarctic show that atmospheric CO2 has been remarkably constant at about 270 to 280 ppm over about the last 10,000 years until the 18th century when it began to rise. As of 2008, the level had risen to about 385 ppm, an increase approaching 40%. On the basis of ice core records the current CO2 concentrations are unprecedented for at least the last 650,000 years.
What are stable isotopes in atmospheric CO2 and why are these measured as well as its concentration?

CO2 molecules are made from the elements carbon and oxygen. Both carbon and oxygen contain isotopes which are atoms with the same numbers of protons but different numbers of neutrons. Because of this, the mass of each isotope is slightly different and this leads to CO2 molecules with different masses. The most common isotope of carbon, 98.9%, is carbon-12 denoted as 12C with an equal number of protons and neutrons in its nucleus. Carbon-13, denoted 13C, has 6 protons and 7 neutrons in its nucleus and is much less abundant at about 1.1%. Both physical and chemical processes in nature can discriminate against the heavier 13C atom thus changing the 13C/12C ratio of molecules of CO2.

These changes are very small but can easily be measured using modern isotope ratio mass spectrometers to 1 part in 100,000. Because different sources of atmospheric CO2 have different 13C/12C ratios isotope measurements of CO2 can be used to "fingerprint" CO2. CO2 derived from the combustion of fossil fuels, for example, has a lower ratio of 13C to 12C than carbon in the oceans or emitted by volcanoes.


LONG-TERM OBSERVATION OF CO2 CONCENTRATION AND ITS ISOTOPE RATIO
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC

H. Mukai1, Y. Nojiri2, Y. Tohjima3, T. Machida4, Y. Shibata5 and H. Kitagawa6

1
Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan; lnmukaih@nies.go.jp

2
Climate Change Research Project, NIES, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan; nojiri@nies.go.jp

3
Atmospheric Division, NIES, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan; tohjima@nies.go.jp

4
Atmospheric Division, NIES, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan; tmachida@nies.go.jp

5
Chemistry Division, NIES, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan; yshibata@nies.go.jp

6
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya City,
464-8601, Japan; hiroyuki.kitagawa@nagoya-u.jp



ABSTRACT
Air was collected systematically from 1995 to 2005 over the Pacific from 30S to 55N in latitude by
ships-of-opportunity to monitor global trend of CO2 concentration and its variation in the atmosphere.
The monitoring results showed that three El Niño events during 10 years mostly affected regional and
temporal variation of CO2 growth rate and its budget. Variation of carbon isotope ratio showed that the
CO2 flux from terrestrial biosphere seemed to rapidly increase at that time, correlated with global
temperature anomaly. Oxygen isotope ratio had increasing trend in this period, similar to the variation of
temperature. Atmospheric 14CO2 variation also seemed to be influenced by El Niño event.

INTRODUCTION
Atmospheric CO2 concentration is increasing gradually by
anthropogenic CO2 input. For better understanding of CO2 budget in
the atmosphere, isotopic signatures of CO2 are often observed in
addition to its concentration. Global CO2 budget can be discussed
based on the difference of fractionation factors in the individual
sink processes (i.e. absorption by ocean and photosynthesis).
Although environmental conditions can affect the degree of isotopic
discrimination, photosynthesis by C3 plant can be most affective to
the temporal change (e.g. daily and seasonal) in carbon isotope
ratio. Oxygen isotope ratio of CO2 is not conservative parameter,
but can be changed through exchange reaction with oxygen of
water. Especially it is related to gross primarily production and soil
respiration. On the other hand, because radiogenic carbon is not
emitted by fossil fuel, 14C can be a good tracer of CO2 cycle. Fig.1 Recent ship routes for sampling

EXPERIMENTAL
Oceanic background air has been collected over the Pacific since 1995 by using commercial cargo ships.
We used two main ship routes for the sampling; JPN – Australia - New Zealand (southern route) and JPN
- Canada - USA (northern route). We could gain kind cooperation from following ships; as the southern
route, HAKUBA-MARU (Nihon Yusei) (1995), SOUTHERN CROSS (MOL) (96-2000), GOLDEN
WATTLE (MOL) (2001), GLORY (MOL) (2002), and FUJITRANS WORLD (Kagoshima Senpaku)
(2003-2005); as the northern route, SKAUGRAN (Seaboad Int. Shipping Co) (1994-1999), ALLIGATOR
HOPE (MOL) (1999-2000), PYXIS (Toyofuji) (2001-2005) and SKAUBRYN (Seaboad). Air inlet was
usually placed on a small mast at the bow of the ship. Air was drawn through the stainless steal tube from
the air inlet by a metal bellows pump and compressed in the 3L stainless steel canister up to 2.5 atm after
removing moisture. Sampling was done automatically about at least every 3 degree in latitude. GHGs
concentrations in the canister were measured by usual methods. CO2 was extracted for further isotopic
analysis. Isotope ratios were measured by usual dual inlet method (MAT252). 14C was measured by
accelerator mass spectrometry in NIES.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
For recent 10 years (1995-2005), 18-20 ppm increase in
concentration was observed in all sampling latitudes.
Observed CO2 growth rate was relatively higher than that of
longer average (1.6 ppm/y) from 1985 to 2001 [WDCGG].
High CO2 growth rate over 3 ppm/y was observed in
tropical area in 2002 following the case at the last El Nino
in 1998. In addition to the increase of anthropogenic
emission from 5.4Gt/y to about 7 Gt/y through 20 years
period, El Niño events associated with relatively high global
temperature seemed to affect rapid CO2 growth increase.

Decreasing rate of carbon isotope ratio was about 0.025 per
mil/y during observed period with a large decreasing rate of
0.08 per mil/y at El Niño year. To estimate the global budget
of CO2, atmospheric volume weighted average was
calculated. By using simple global flux equation by Francey
et al. [1995], oceanic and terrestrial net CO2 fluxes were
roughly estimated. In three El Niño years of ’95, ’97/’98
and 2002, terrestrial sink was found to be very small or even a small source (1 Gt/y), causing high CO2
growth rate about 3 ppm/y. On the other hand, in La Niña year of 2000, terrestrial sink was large (2 Gt/y).
Oceanic sink was fairy stable at about 2 Gt/y with a small increase (around 1 Gt/y) at El Niño period and
small decrease in La Nina period. (In 2002 El Niño year, change of oceanic sink was much smaller than
that in ’97 El Niño). Such apparent fluctuation of oceanic sink may be partly explained by the variation of
isotopic discrimination by photosynthesis and /or contribution of C4 plants [Randerson et al., 2002].
Fig.2 Latitudinal average trends for CO2, δ13C
and δ18O.

Oxygen isotope ratio had a weak increase trend during the observed period, which was a little different
tendency from previously analyzed trend during 1993-1998 by Ishizawa et al. [2002]. It also had a local
maximum in El Niño year, when the CO2 growth rate became high. Such variation may be correlated with
temperature. Because equilibrium in δ18O of CO2 with water will give a negative effect against
temperature increase, other factors such as increase of δ18O of water in the soil and plant by dry condition
and/or rapid decrease of gross primarily production may be related to the δ18O increase.

Data of Δ14C at 15S and 25N had a systematical gap (about 5 permil) and both values continued to
decrease with a decay time of 16 y. In El Niño year 14C seemed to show weak positive anomaly. It may
suggest the possibility of showing rapid flux of CO2 from terrestrial biosphere.

REFERENCES
Francey, R. J., P. P. Tans, C. E. Allison, I. G. Enting, J. W. C. White and M. Trolier (1995), Changes in
oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake since 1982, Nature 373, 326-330.
Ishizawa M., T. Nakazawa and K. Higuchi (2002), A multi-box model study of the role of the biospheric
metabolism in the recent decline of δ18O in atmospheric CO2, Tellus 54B, 307-324.
Randerson, J. T., G. J. Collatz, J. E. Fessenden, A. D. Still, J. A. Berry, I. Y. Fung, N. Suits and A.S.
Denning (2002), A possible global covariance between terrestrial gross primary production and 13C
discrimination: Consequences for the atmospheric 13C budget and its response to ENSO, Global
Biogeochem. Cycles 16 (4), 1136, doi:10.1029/2001GB001845.
basically both you guys just proved to the readers your misrepresenting the facts by denying that loads of scientific data has been offered in support of the prevailing theory and that the various articles were quoted accurately

once again the lack of civility and honesty is hardly worth my time
  #3454  
Old 09-22-2009, 06:31 AM
fasteddy106's Avatar
fasteddy106 fasteddy106 is offline
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More minutae and no evidence. He long ago gave up the right to expect to be treated with any civility considering his rants and tirades against any and all who disagreed with him. If this is such a waste of time for Boston, perhaps he should just hang with his alarmist buddies and they can sit aroung the room and play mental masturbation with their plans for mankind.
  #3455  
Old 09-22-2009, 07:37 AM
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hoytedow hoytedow is offline
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Poles may be warmer but DC is cooler with the new rock star at 1600. It would be awfully damned boring if the climate never changed, and who is to say that today's climate is the climal optimum. The Northern Passage may well have been navigable when men were growing grapes in the soutern parts of England, at about the same time the Inca's were thriving in Pre-Columbian South America.

Link: http://www.climatechangefraud.com/cl...s-helping-hand
  #3456  
Old 09-22-2009, 10:30 AM
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Pericles Pericles is offline
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Boston,

Do you like sex and travel?
__________________
Whilst entitled to your own opinion, you are not entitled to your own facts!
  #3457  
Old 09-22-2009, 11:56 AM
mark775
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That took me several seconds to get. Thanks, Pericles.
One thing I like on threads where about half of the posts are non-facts, are the ego massages. To wit; "...Knut's excellently made points concerning ocean acidification", (insert "Billy-Bob teeth" for this one!) "well constructed argument, Masalai", etc.. They constantly attempt to validate ad nauseum cut and pastes (for lack of a self-generated argument) with "atta boys". I know they're on their heels when the "Wet Inttimo Aromatherapy Massage Oil" comes out...
What Do We Think About Climate Change-71622228600_220x220_a.jpg
  #3458  
Old 09-22-2009, 01:19 PM
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Guillermo Guillermo is offline
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Arctic ice extension growing.
Some tiny sunspots.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy in 30 years low.
Northwest passage possibly open in 1946.

Cheers
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  #3459  
Old 09-22-2009, 01:28 PM
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hoytedow hoytedow is offline
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In 2004 3 hurricane eyes passed within 70 miles of my house. This year so far has been downright boring, thankfully. Bendiciones
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Last edited by hoytedow : 09-22-2009 at 01:52 PM. Reason: spelling
  #3460  
Old 09-22-2009, 01:38 PM
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hoytedow hoytedow is offline
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Hurricane Activity

As I said...
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  #3461  
Old 09-23-2009, 12:54 AM
Jimbo1490 Jimbo1490 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston View Post
the Arctic passage opened up for shipping this summer
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8264345.stm

Jim once again I appreciate the civility of your answers but none actually invalidated the examples given by numerous independent researchers and institutions concerning the realities of the isotopic fingerprint all derived by independent means


cheers
B
Fabulous!

Then it should be quite easy for you to cite one study that found the expected -11per mil pdb signature to credibly attribute 21% of the CO2 in the present atmosphere to fossil fuel emissions. All the studies I've seen (including the one Tcubed and Thomas posted several times) showed less than -8 per mil, which corresponds to something less than 5% fossil fuel content.

100% fossil fuel = -26 per mil pdb

21% fossil fuel (per IPCC claims) = -11 per mil pdb

>5% fossil fuel = -7.5-7.8 per mil pdb (today's atmosphere)

0% fossil fuel = -7.0 per mil pdb

From your own citation above:

"Data of Δ14C at 15S and 25N had a systematical gap (about 5 permil) and both values continued to
decrease with a decay time of 16 y. In El Niño year 14C seemed to show weak positive anomaly. It may
suggest the possibility of showing rapid flux of CO2 from terrestrial biosphere."

Yeah, no kidding! The rapid fluxing of CO2 from the terrestrial biosphere (read that short residence time) is EXACTLY why you simply cannot cause an accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere by our paltry emissions! It would take a stupendous amount of CO2 to cause such an accumulation given the 5-6 years half-life, and NO, 8Gt is not NEARLY enough! This is why you can't cite a study with the hard numbers that I stated; the isotopic signature is missing because CO2 has a short residence time. Yet there's more CO2 in the atmosphere now than 100 years ago, it's just not our CO2; it's naturally sourced.

Oh, there's always lots of hand waving and pontification in those studies, just no hard numbers on isotopic signature to back it up. Just go out and find one with the proper numbers, with no excuses about the signature testing unexpectedly low, like the one you just cited for us.


I'm waiting....

Jimbo
  #3462  
Old 09-23-2009, 04:13 AM
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Knut Sand Knut Sand is offline
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Thought the PDB standard went out of use in 1994....?
Anyway, not even close to my field.... So what do I know. (I know something about combustion though...).

Just me theorizing a bit, again….:

It is generally accepted that is you take a lot of quartz sand, from below your feet, makes a lot of 5 mm windowpanes, assemble that again above your head to be a greenhouse, and you’re in business. Now there’s a lot of reasons why this becomes hot, radiation is trapped, mechanical transfer of heat energy is restricted etc, but the general idea is they do their job, next you’ll be selling flowers in christnas.

Then, if we take some other chemical components, hydrocarbons, work our magic with those again, use some O2, in return we get some water and some CO2. Okay, we’re only assuming that what we do is a fraction of what the nature already does. 3%, but then again, we’ve done that for some years.

If we assume (numbers taken out of the “air”…. here) that the amount of CO2 gas in the atmosphere is equal to 2 m3 on each 1m2 of earth surface, and that that increases only 50% and if none of CO2 is not taken up by plants, sea or other of nature’s buffer effects. (as stated above, but we need to admit it; we do not know the position/ levels of the saturation points). We’ll only need 15 years to add 50 % CO2.

One tiny extra 1m3 of CO2, taken from below our feet to above our head?.

If we have a gas, remove some, replace or even add gas with some other value for thermal conductivity, (or any gas composition consisting of more than 2 molecules, and relatively; there are not too many gases in the atmosphere consisting of more than 2 molecules (water, methane, co2)) We’ll end up with a mixed gas that have other properties. We cannot add an extra gas, or alter the composition without expecting a change in gas mixture properties This is NOT circumstantial (IF I understand that word correctly… remember I’m Norwegian, this ain’t my native language…), It can be measured, controlled, verified.

You all probably understand where I try to end up? CO2 will insulate both ways(both input/ loss), but heat loss will be all of this earth’s surface, while heat input from the sun will hammer into approx 60-80% of the surface covered in the daytime, so daytime, the sun’s the clear winner. (The sun, in daytime will hammer away the clouds, and higher humidity= nighttime clouds; restricting night time heat loss).
A balance in input/ versus loss = stable temperature.

I like to simplify; ok you may argue that this is a too complex matter, we have other way of heat transfer long band rays, mechanical, infrared, whatever… Some say at some “bands” the heat transfer is trapped, some say it’s leaking like a picket fence. I; personally truly believe we’ll probably never get the full picture.

But; IF, right?

Assume that the temperature to be insulated from is -20 degC (high altitude) and + 20 deg C (here).(dT =40 C).

The thermal conductivity for co2 for 0 degC is 0,105 W/mK
(http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/ca...de-d_1000.html)

We have one extra cu m of co2, right? (15 years, no buffers, no help from God).

What can this do? I mean; it’s just a gas, for crying out loud…., but we have some basic formulas to follow (the easy ones):

Q = k A dT/s

(http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/co...fer-d_428.html)

Q= 0,105 x 1x 1 x 40/ 1 = 4,2 Watts

It will not be correct to use this at the full surface of this earth, without considering a lot of other factors, but there have been an increase in CO2, and it can be considered to be close to that level, if I recall correctly.

But keep it simple yes:

How much glass over our head equals that to?

Thermal conductivity of glass varies highly, but there’s a value for it here:
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/th...ity-d_429.html
1,05 W/mK.

Hey….. That’ll give us an equivalent of a glasshouse with 10 m thick windows…. Sorry folks, not kidding…..

Ok, That’s way off any realistic assumption, right? (Remember; we also have contact/ radiation transfer of heat inside a gas mixture) but let’s assume that simplification is totally wrong, by let’s say 90%? (Still leaves 1 m thick glass….). But then again… We’ve been burning oil/ coal for close to 150-200 years, at least… not 15 years either.

Can we safely assume that a change in the level of CO2 is not inflicted to any number at all by human activities? Even only a fraction of 3 % added to the natural cycle will over a period add (ehhhrr; multiply…) up to something that can be measured.

PS: I tend to not consider mechanical properties that can be checked/ verified as circumstantial (If I understand that word correctly to something close to; theoretical/ not proven).

PPS: CO2 is considered as a good gas to use for insulation purposes, therefore I believe it pretty certain that it also can act as a greenhouse gas, Ok; I’m probably jumping on the bandwagon here….

PPPS: They use pretty certain methods to assume the life span in the CO2 cycle in the atmosphere, I’ve heard approx 100 years, not hundreds of years. But even a 5-10 year period will have some effect.

PPPPS:”The only thing we KNOW is that humans release some CO2 and that atmospheric CO2 is increasing. This is a purely circumstantial case. We cannot prove that the anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of the increase. There are other much larger sources that come into play.” There are clear indications now that melting permafrost also releases huge amounts of CO2, in addition to the already known problem with methane, but anyway; if hundreds of animals are pissing in a well, It’s still safe to assume that I’ll not improve the water quality by pissing in that same well….

PPPPPS: Only 3 %.....2% or 5 % will also add up to something, that’s why we “conservatives” put the money in the bank, even red socialist basterds like me… 

PPPPPPS: Oil, gas, coal, are, in my opinion a limited resource, nature can handle most stress caused by the use of these, if used over a long timespan… So, shall we consider that seriously and take action so that later generations will have some, or shall later generations be left to tackle that problem as a truck at high speed running into a gravelpit?

Nothing new:
http://onramp.nsdl.org/eserv/onramp:...henius1896.pdf

Some ammo:
http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidere..._a_sceptic.php
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  #3463  
Old 09-23-2009, 04:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mark775 View Post
They constantly attempt to validate ad nauseum cut and pastes (for lack of a self-generated argument) with "atta boys". I know they're on their heels when the "Wet Inttimo Aromatherapy Massage Oil" comes out...
Well, what can I say? You're arguments are pretty close to "nasty", pretty clearly showing what you're made of.... So I assume you're closer than me to finding a proper(?) use for that bottle of lube oil...

Should we try to keep to a somewhat "civilized" behaviour?

Or at least pretend that we contain a few intelligent braincells and basically originate from homes with furnitures?
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  #3464  
Old 09-23-2009, 08:45 AM
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hoytedow hoytedow is offline
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Everbody, hold your breath for ten minutes, then take another air sample.

Start
>
>
>
>
>
>
NOW!
  #3465  
Old 09-23-2009, 06:54 PM
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Common sense from (for me) a nearly unknown source; http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...58L6ID20090922
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