What Do We Think About Climate Change

[Guillermo]

Giraudi, C. 2009. Late Holocene glacial and periglacial evolution in the upper Orco Valley, northwestern Italian Alps. Quaternary Research 71: 1-8.

http://it.groups.yahoo.com/group/Qua...io/message/569

The author examined long-term relations among glacial activity, periglacial activity, soil development in northwestern Italy's alpine River Orco headwaters, and downvalley floods on the River Po, based on studies carried out by means of geological and geomorphologic surveys on the glacial and periglacial features, including a sampling of soils involved in periglacial processes that provided a basis for development of a chronological framework of late Holocene environmental change and an analysis of a stratigraphic sequence exposed in a peat bog along the Rio del Nel, about 1 km from the front edge of the Eastern Nel Glacier.

Among a number of other interesting findings, Giraudi determined that between about 200 BC and AD 100 -- i.e., during the Roman Warm Period -- soils developed in areas at present devoid of vegetation and with permafrost, indicative of the likelihood that temperatures at that time "probably reached higher values than those of the present." He also concluded that analogous conditions likely occurred during the period of the 11th-12th centuries AD, when a soil developed on a slope presently characterized by periglacial debris, while noting that "in the 11th-12th centuries AD, frost weathering processes were not active and, due to the higher temperatures than at present or the longer duration of a period with high temperatures, vegetation succeeded in colonizing the slope." He also determined that the phase of greatest glacial expansion (Little Ice Age) coincides with a period characterized by a large number of floods in the River Po basin, and that phases of glacial retreat, such as occurred during the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods, correlate with periods with relatively few floods in the River Po basin.

[Guillermo]

Richey, J.N., Poore, R.Z., Flower, B.P. and Quinn, T.M. 2007. 1400 yr multiproxy record of climate variability from the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geology 35: 423-426.

http://kong.lib.usf.edu:8881/R/UR8RF...s_handle=GUEST

Authors constructed a continuous decadal-scale resolution record of climate variability over the past 1400 years in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a box core recovered in the Pigmy Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico [27°11.61'N, 91°24.54'W], based on paired analyses of Mg/Ca and δ18O in the white variety of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and relative abundance variations of G. sacculifer in the foraminifer assemblages.

Results reveal that two multi-decadal intervals of sustained high Mg/Ca indicate that Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were as warm or warmer than near-modern conditions between 1000 and 1400 yr B.P., while foraminiferal Mg/Ca during the coolest interval of the Little Ice Age (ca. 250 yr B.P.) indicate that SST was 2-2.5°C below modern SST. In addition, they found that four minima in the Mg/Ca record between 900 and 250 yr. B.P. correspond with the Maunder, Sporer, Wolf, and Oort sunspot minima, providing additional evidence that the historic warmth of Earth's past was likely solar-induced, which suggests that the Current Warm Period may well be deriving its warmth from the same source.

[Guillermo]

CLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS SINCE THE LITTLE ICE AGE—
SHORT-TERM CLIMATE CYCLES

http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~dbunny/resear...lacialfluc.pdf

"These glacier fluctuations closely follow the global cooling record and indicate that the ~30 yr. warming and cooling cycles seen in the glacial record mimic global climate changes."

"Each of these glacial fluctuations matches the both global temperature curve and sea surface temperatures recorded by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Fig. 16). The 1915 to 1945 PDO warm period occurred during the observed global warming of the atmosphere from 1915 to 1945 and to accelerated retreat of glaciers. The 1945- 1977 PDO cool period took place during the global cooling of the atmosphere from 1945 to 1977 and to the advance of glaciers. The 1977 to 1998 PDO warm period occurred during global warming of the atmosphere from 1977 to 1998 and to accelerated retreat of glaciers. After the 1998 El Nino Pacific warm event, the PDO switched from its warm phase to a cool phase, but was interrupted by the 2005-2006 El Nino. In 2007-2008, the PDO resumed its cool phase and the winter of 2007-2008 was record-breaking cool globally."

[Guillermo]

Let me quote again Syun-Ichi Akasofu for the slow ones :

"A roughly linear global temperature increase of about 0.5°C per 100 years seems to have occurred from about 1800, or even much earlier, to the present.....This long-lasting linear warming trend is likely to be a natural change."

"One possible cause of the linear increase may be Earth’s continuing recovery from the Little Ice Age. This trend (0.5°C/100 years) should be subtracted from the temperature data during the last 100 years when estimating the manmade contribution to the present global warming trend. Thus, there is a possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend is attributable to the greenhouse effect resulting from human activities."

Precisely the same good Ole Humlum says ...but may be both are paid by the oil industry

[Boston]

Originally Posted by Guillermo

Richey, J.N., Poore, R.Z., Flower, B.P. and Quinn, T.M. 2007. 1400 yr multiproxy record of climate variability from the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geology 35: 423-426.

http://kong.lib.usf.edu:8881/R/UR8RF...s_handle=GUEST

Authors constructed a continuous decadal-scale resolution record of climate variability over the past 1400 years in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a box core recovered in the Pigmy Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico [27°11.61'N, 91°24.54'W], based on paired analyses of Mg/Ca and δ18O in the white variety of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and relative abundance variations of G. sacculifer in the foraminifer assemblages.

Results reveal that two multi-decadal intervals of sustained high Mg/Ca indicate that Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were as warm or warmer than near-modern conditions between 1000 and 1400 yr B.P., while foraminiferal Mg/Ca during the coolest interval of the Little Ice Age (ca. 250 yr B.P.) indicate that SST was 2-2.5°C below modern SST. In addition, they found that four minima in the Mg/Ca record between 900 and 250 yr. B.P. correspond with the Maunder, Sporer, Wolf, and Oort sunspot minima, providing additional evidence that the historic warmth of Earth's past was likely solar-induced, which suggests that the Current Warm Period may well be deriving its warmth from the same source.

that might have worked but we're in about the deepest sun spot minima we have seen in ages and still the temp is climbing like a bat outa hell
also a regional argument and not a global trend

Let me quote again Syun-Ichi Akasofu for the slow ones

Syun Akasofu was the founder and director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, from its establishment in 1998 until January 2007. His areas of expertise are physics and geophysics.[1] He is also a well-known climate change skeptic and a speaker at the International Conference on Climate Change (2009), organized by the Heartland Institute think tank.[2]

Akasofu asserts that at least some of the contribution to global climate change comes from the natural effect of "recovery from the Little Ice Age," rather than from human activity. [3] He has criticized the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), asserting that they have failed to show "definite scientific proof that 'most' of the present warming is caused by the greenhouse effect," as the IPCC's 2007 report states. [4] He does admit that global warming is occurring, especially in the Arctic, and that this climate change "consists of both natural change and the greenhouse effect." [5] His critics respond that the Little Ice Age is somewhat of a climate change myth. The warming after the so-called Little Ice Age "may reflect both an increase in solar activity and a redistribution of heat around the planet," but the "continued warming in recent decades, however, cannot be explained by increases in solar radiation alone." [6]

Syun Akasofu, "Natural Causes of 20th Century Warming: Recovery from the Little Ice Age and Oscillatory Change", Presentation to Heartland Institute's International Conference on Climate Change (2009), March 9, 2009. (PowerPoint)

remember these speakers were paid by the Heartland institute who recieved there funding from the oil and gas industry which they represent in a public relations role

but may be both are paid by the oil industry

well one of em certainly is

so G why are you proving us correct in our assumptions about your affiliations to the Fartland institute

and the part highlighted in red is an obvious industry tactic
science basically cant prove anything
what it does is show that the majority of data supports a given theory
this general agreement is referred to as a consensus
in the case of climate change the consensus is one of the most lopsided ever with 97% in agreement


oh
you have completely avoided Billy's question
instead doing exactly what he predicted
presenting more heartland affiliates and paid propagandists

also
Humlum was not only proven wrong
but embarrassingly wrong at that
being corrected by even his own colleagues at the U of A

[Guillermo]

Masa:
According to NSIDC (http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/), over the last 30 years Antarctic sea ice extent has been growing at a rate of nearly 5% per decade, and set a record maximum last year.

Cheers.

[masalai]

I was just posting to an item put up in Australia a couple of days ago - so who is telling untruths? and why - also research projects using buoys is also seeing the light of day regularly in universities in Aus & NZ.... but low funding levels at these institutions inhibits self promotion and marketing etc - so find a friend of a friend who is actually doing the research.... I prefer the 'private' knowledge-base I have found.... minute 27 of this lecture illustrates the point http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zkwe...eature=related

[Guillermo]

Update on the Catlin Expedition:
Average daily distance: 6.39 km
Still 681 km to go.

"Today saw the second successful resupply land on the ice, with Dominic and Charlie now safely back on terra firma. The team’s food and fuel stores have been replenished and they have received a number of small gifts and treats to see them through to the next one. All treats that is, except the bacon sandwiches that Dom carefully carried out all the way from Resolute, which would have certainly been devoured in a matter of mere seconds of the plane touching down!"

Pen Hadow's body core temperature sensor seems to be not working fine:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/li...m_the_ice.aspx

Challenging adventure!

[Guillermo]

A group of scientists led by Suraje Dessai of the University of Exeter and the Tyndall Centre, UK argue that better climate predictions will not necessarily aid adaptation.

Writing in the latest issue of EOS, a newsletter of the American Geophysical Union, Dessai and co-authors say that, in any case, the ability to predict future climate is limited by inherent uncertainty that will always leave ‘some level of irreducible ignorance in our understanding’. Furthermore, our ability to predict other factors that are likely to influence the outcome of adaptation efforts, such as population growth or changes in technology, is even more limited than our ability to predict the climate.

[Boston]

after having been round and round on the ice issue G I think its pretty clear your using the only area of even marginal ice advance and waving it about like it somehow off sets the massive ice losses everywhere else.

go back a few hundred posts and you will see there is a comparative graph on ice advance/retreat worldwide

it gives a far more
shall we say
honest
view of the worldwide ice data
and not just one years advance, in one area of the world

[masalai]

G - I think that area is what is defined as the "western side of the land mass" and my information was about a significant warming of the adjacent oceanic waters as per buoys and evidenced by increase in melt of floating ice areas - also there was acceptance that the eastern side ice on top of land was slowly deminishing / decreasing / reducing or whatever the politically correct word is... and evidence of the global oceanic currents slowing down.... all actively measured stuff, not estimated by analysis of data extracted from some core sampling etc... but then this field is not really an interest to me - I just post here as additional info that may be of interest - and do not search for a particular 'direction' just whatever passes my eyes...

[Guillermo]

Thank you, Mas.
I have to search for a paper, I think already posted in this thread, about the waters of the western side of the Antarctica being warmed by volcanic activity, although I'm not sure. I have to review the info I've gathered and see if I can come here with something useful.

Cheers.

[Guillermo]

In the mean time, let me post this again paper, published in 2008:

Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming
GILBERT P. COMPO
PRASHANT D. SARDESHMUKH
Climate Diagnostics Center,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, and
Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gilbe...hmukh2007a.pdf

Abstract
Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.
Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences.

Conclusion:

“In summary, our results emphasize the significant role of remote oceanic influences, rather than the direct local effect of anthropogenic radiative forcings, in the recent continental warming. They suggest that the recent oceanic warming has caused the continents to warm through a different set of mechanisms than usually identified with the global impacts of SST changes. It has increased the humidity of the atmosphere, altered the atmospheric vertical motion and associated cloud fields, and perturbed the longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes at the continental surface. While continuous global measurements of most of these changes are not available through the 1961-2006 period, some humidity observations are available and do show upward trends over the continents. These include near-surface observations (Dai 2006) as well as satellite radiance measurements sensitive to upper tropospheric moisture (Soden et al. 2005).”

Although not a focus of this study, the degree to which the oceans themselves have recently warmed due to increased GHG, other anthropogenic, natural solar and volcanic forcings, or internal multi-decadal climate variations is a matter of active investigation (Stott et al. 2006; Knutson et al. 2006; Pierce et al. 2006). Reliable assessments of these contributing factors depend critically on reliable estimations of natural climate variability, either from the observational record or from coupled climate model simulations without anthropogenic forcings. Several recent studies suggest that the observed SST variability may be misrepresented in the coupled models used in preparing the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, with substantial errors on interannual and decadal scales (e.g., Shukla et al. 2006, DelSole, 2006; Newman 2007; Newman et al. 2008). There is a hint of an underestimation of simulated decadal SST variability even in the published IPCC Report (Hegerl et al. 2007, FAQ9.2 Figure 1). Given these and other misrepresentations of natural oceanic variability on decadal scales (e.g., Zhang and McPhaden 2006), a role for natural causes of at least some of the recent oceanic warming should not be ruled out.


Regardless of whether or not the rapid recent oceanic warming has occurred largely from anthropogenic or natural influences, our study highlights its importance in accounting for the recent observed continental warming. Perhaps the most important conclusion to be drawn from our analysis is that the recent acceleration of global warming may not be occurring in quite the manner one might have imagined. The indirect and substantial role of the oceans in causing the recent continental warming emphasizes the need to generate reliable projections of ocean temperature changes over the next century, in order to generate more reliable projections of not just the global mean temperature and precipitation changes (Barsugli et al. 2006), but also regional climate changes.”

(bolded are mine)

[Guillermo]

....but the point is oceans are cooling since 2003.....

Also already posted:

Cooling of the Global Ocean Since 2003
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/conten...nlpdhr7c.alice

Abstract:

Ocean heat content data from 2003 to 2008 (4.5 years) were evaluated for trend. A trend plus periodic (annual cycle) model fit with R2 = 0.85. The linear component of the model showed a trend of −0.35 (±0.2) × 1022 Joules per year. The result is consistent with other data showing a lack of warming over the past few years.

[Guillermo]

....and global temperatures are descending since 2003....
in spite of the growing CO2 concentration.

(Also posted before. This thread has became a merry-go-round carousel )