Mid-term election predictions / politicians

[troy2000]

The American national midterm elections (when we elect members of the House of Representatives, and one third of the members of the Senate) are in ten days. Would anyone care to make any predictions?

Personally, I'm predicting the Democrats will lose some seats in the House of Representatives -- possibly enough to give the Republicans control -- but they won't lose the Senate.

I've been saying ever since Obama won that Democrats would take a beating in the mid-terms, and that Republicans would crow about it being proof that the country has repudiated Obama, Democrats and liberalism. But here are the facts, at least as I see them:

(1) Historically, the President's party almost routinely loses seats in a midterm election. It happens so often that it's considered a given, barring extraordinary circumstances.

(2) On top of that, Obama inherited a mess that will take years to clean up and recover from, regardless of who's in charge -- and voters have short memories. They'll remember that Obama was elected two years ago; they'll forget that the roots of the economic problems we're facing extend well back before his time in office; and they'll want to punish him for not kissing the boo-boo and instantly making it all better.

(3) But in spite of all that, Obama's approval ratings in recent polls are (rather surprisingly) pretty much in line with the ratings of previous Presidents at the same point in their terms. That indicates to me that Democratic losses will probably be less than most commentators are predicting.

Does anyone have any comments or counter predictions? Hold on a second -- whilst I don this helmet and flak jacket, and duck down....

[Leo Lazauskas]

Tea-baggers to win some seats and pull the GOP further to the right.
More borrowed money for private defense contractors to fight unpopular wars.
Therefore, it's another win for China and other money lenders.

[PAR]

If the GOP wins big, they'll promptly handle the tea-baggers with swift outings from all the major committees and rank and file GOP members will not let them into their circles of influence. They have no choice but to clean up what could be a party splitting revolution. They've smoothed them over considerably since the primary victories, which with some has been a huge undertaking. They will not let these folks caucus with both the tea-party and the GOP, so they'll have to choose or be kicked to the curb. This would effectively kill the movement and save the GOP bleeding.

If the GOP doesn't gain what it expects, the tea-baggers will have considerably more leverage, though fortunately for the GOP, the movement is so poorly organized and based on such lame constructs, that it's survival would still be hard to take seriously. This coupled with the fact that the GOP does politics better then anyone else and they can't afford more erosion and party faithful loses, suggests a blood bath to save the remnants of the GOP. Even the hard right christian coalitions are having difficulty with some of the tea-baggers, so you can bet after the election they'll make every single member toe the line or form a third party. Baxter pretty much insured this will occur when she insisted on a tea-party caucus (what a bone head, shot herself in the foot). Now she's married to it and it will drag her and several others down the tube in the next couple of years.

I suspect that both houses will remain democratic, though possibly by slim margins. This will force much more give and take from both sides and much less stonewall partisan tactics. Of course it also means that Obama's efforts will come to all but a screeching stop for the next two years.

If the house swings GOP, you mark my words, they will attempt to find a reason to impeach Obama. Anyone that's watched the GOP in the last 20 years can attest, this is the strategy they'll employ, which will distract the country from the real issues and possibly enough to elect a GOP president in 2012, which is the ultimate goal, win at whatever cost, even if it means holding back an economic recovery, just to blame it on Obama. I've never seen a bigger bunch of cads in my life as the latest round of GOP hopefuls. They've protected the banks as they screwed us, they've protected wall street as it screwed us, they've protected big business, accepted anonymous campaign funding and protected it's right to be, attempted to block every single effort to gain control over run away corporate and economic irresponsibility, and frankly not a single statesmen among the lot. Had there been one they would have stood up against some of the most outrageous campaign tactics and bill blocking shown by their party in the last 2 years. Not a single leader in the GOP currently, the last presidential want-a-be's from the GOP have proven this. Is there anything that McCain hasn't flip flopped on in the last 18 months? He's not a maverick any more and clearly hasn't any solid convictions either. Good thing he didn't win.

[Leo Lazauskas]

Originally Posted by PAR

If the house swings GOP, you mark my words, they will attempt to find a reason to impeach Obama.

Of course they will. And they'll use Karl Rove to lead the attack on Obama for having sex with prostitutes when he should have been representing the USA in golf. Or maybe it was some other guy. Doesn't matter.

[terhohalme]

Japanise opinion: So few elections in USA... we have election evely molning.

[wardd]

lets hope the middle starts to listen to what the gop and tea's are actually telling their base

[ancient kayaker]

Originally Posted by PAR

... I've never seen a bigger bunch of cads in my life as the latest round of GOP hopefuls. They've protected the banks as they screwed us, they've protected wall street as it screwed us, they've protected big business, accepted anonymous campaign funding and protected it's right to be, attempted to block every single effort to gain control over run away corporate and economic irresponsibility, and frankly not a single statesmen among the lot ...

We watch US politics from Canada with total confusion and a sense of impending doom. The financial irresponsibility of the Dubya-era republicans forces Democrats into trying to fix a financial mess, something they're simply not accustomed to doing if they are anything like our Liberals, while the entire world waits for relief. Except Canada apparently, but that's not particularly good for Canadians; my UK pensions are worth ZIP these days. Please please fix it all up soon!

- Aimless in Alliston

[wardd]

Originally Posted by ancient kayaker

We watch US politics from Canada with total confusion and a sense of impending doom. The financial irresponsibility of the Dubya-era republicans forces Democrats into trying to fix a financial mess, something they're simply not accustomed to doing if they are anything like our Liberals, while the entire world waits for relief. Except Canada apparently, but that's not particularly good for Canadians; my UK pensions are worth ZIP these days. Please please fix it all up soon!

- Aimless in Alliston

if the gop gets power your pension wont be worth zip when they are done privatizing it, then it will be all fixed

You have no idea of what you speak but if you feel the slight of calling Tea Party people "Tea Baggers" appropriate, may I feel free to call you <removed>

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by PAR

If the GOP wins big, they'll promptly handle the tea-baggers with swift outings from all the major committees and rank and file GOP members will not let them into their circles of influence. They have no choice but to clean up what could be a party splitting revolution. They've smoothed them over considerably since the primary victories, which with some has been a huge undertaking. They will not let these folks caucus with both the tea-party and the GOP, so they'll have to choose or be kicked to the curb. This would effectively kill the movement and save the GOP bleeding.

Traditionally, any third-party movement that gains any traction in this country gets absorbed by one of the two major parties. Although I don't really consider the Tea Party movement a genuine third party to begin with, despite its claims to be independent. It's simply a conglomeration of extreme and/or confused factions of the Republican Party, supported and funded by the same people.

If the GOP doesn't gain what it expects, the tea-baggers will have considerably more leverage, though fortunately for the GOP, the movement is so poorly organized and based on such lame constructs, that it's survival would still be hard to take seriously. This coupled with the fact that the GOP does politics better then anyone else and they can't afford more erosion and party faithful loses, suggests a blood bath to save the remnants of the GOP. Even the hard right christian coalitions are having difficulty with some of the tea-baggers, so you can bet after the election they'll make every single member toe the line or form a third party. Baxter pretty much insured this will occur when she insisted on a tea-party caucus (what a bone head, shot herself in the foot). Now she's married to it and it will drag her and several others down the tube in the next couple of years.

Joining the Tea Party caucus in the House is not an either/or situation; some of the leading Republicans are members of it:

Caucuses are informal member organizations of Congress. Lawmakers don’t have to take an oath to join. There are no applications or elections. You just show up – if the caucus has meetings. Many don’t. For these, communications means one aide texting another on a BlackBerry.

At any one time, Congress typically has around 300 caucuses (technically, they’re known as Congressional Member Organizations) registered with the House Committee on Administration. They form and disband with regularity. Some have the brief life of a one-hit wonder. Others endure, like Madonna.

They don’t get US-supplied office space, or allocated funds. Members can detail their own staff members to work on caucus business, though, and support them with their own money.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politic...ssional-groups

I suspect that both houses will remain democratic, though possibly by slim margins. This will force much more give and take from both sides and much less stonewall partisan tactics. Of course it also means that Obama's efforts will come to all but a screeching stop for the next two years.

If the house swings GOP, you mark my words, they will attempt to find a reason to impeach Obama. Anyone that's watched the GOP in the last 20 years can attest, this is the strategy they'll employ, which will distract the country from the real issues and possibly enough to elect a GOP president in 2012, which is the ultimate goal, win at whatever cost, even if it means holding back an economic recovery, just to blame it on Obama. I've never seen a bigger bunch of cads in my life as the latest round of GOP hopefuls. They've protected the banks as they screwed us, they've protected wall street as it screwed us, they've protected big business, accepted anonymous campaign funding and protected it's right to be, attempted to block every single effort to gain control over run away corporate and economic irresponsibility, and frankly not a single statesmen among the lot. Had there been one they would have stood up against some of the most outrageous campaign tactics and bill blocking shown by their party in the last 2 years. Not a single leader in the GOP currently, the last presidential want-a-be's from the GOP have proven this.

I have no doubt there will be an attempt to impeach Obama, if the Republicans take control of the House.

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), who would become Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee if the GOP wins on Election Day, said Friday that his party will not try to bring impeachment charges 'simply because it disagrees with the president.'

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...nder-gop-house

Those are weasel words. Issa has actually been carrying on for a while about investigating the Obama administration, for a long list of supposed offenses.

As a matter of fact, back in July Issa was demanding that a special prosecutor be appointed to look into Joe Sestak's claim that someone in the White House offered him a good job, if he would drop out of the Congressional primary race against Arlen Specter. Issa specifically compared Obama to Nixon, and said Sestak's claim could be "Obama's Watergate."

Is there anything that McCain hasn't flip flopped on in the last 18 months? He's not a maverick any more and clearly hasn't any solid convictions either. Good thing he didn't win.

Frankly, I'm not sure McCain is all there any more. I think there's been some measurable deterioration in his mental capacity and judgment in the last few years.

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by mark775

You have no idea of what you speak but if you feel the slight of calling Tea Party people "Tea Baggers" appropriate, may I feel free to call you "Cock Suckers"? I wudn't venture a guess as to why one wud want to suck male chickens but anything with leftists seems to go lately. Then, there is the lying cock sucker who wud say "I've been saying ever since Obama won..." In general, the desperation of you people is on exhibit, even by the witness of starting this thread. I'm not going to argue with you about specifics as you turn my stomach to even know you exist - If you want to be a cock sucker, why don't you just keep it amongst yourselves? Really, a PM wud be a more appropriate meeting venue, don't you think?

That's one of the more irrational rants I've read lately, Mark. You aren't even making sense; you're just spewing hate and venom.

In other words, you're a pretty typical Tea Party supporter.

And if you're going to ally yourself with a group that identifies itself by such a silly-sounding name, you're going to take some flak for it. Get used to it....

Well, if you people can call Americans trying to act like the Americans that built this country "Tea Baggers"...
And wud you people quit Googling **** to pretend that you have caught up - The technique lacks originality and is unbecoming. Get back to subverting America in your more subtle ways - Besides, loose chicks dig guys like you because you are more like them.

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by mark775

Well, if you people can call Americans trying to act like the Americans that built this country "Tea Baggers"...
And wud you people quit Googling **** to pretend that you have caught up - The technique lacks originality and is unbecoming. Get back to subverting America in your more subtle ways - Besides, loose chicks dig guys like you because you are more like them.

[wardd]

Originally Posted by mark775

Well, if you people can call Americans trying to act like the Americans that built this country "Tea Baggers"...
And wud you people quit Googling **** to pretend that you have caught up - The technique lacks originality and is unbecoming. Get back to subverting America in your more subtle ways - Besides, loose chicks dig guys like you because you are more like them.

well, that is coherent

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by wardd

well, that is coherent

It isn't often I get such quick and clear confirmation after I call someone irrational....